**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[lntense]

If you carefully examine Amazon / Meta / Google earnings, go through those financials not just read cnbc few snippets here and there.

They were not phucking good. Margins for everyone down hard / operating expense up / only reply is to raise prices.

Someone just needed pump (via that tool from WSJ article) to dump their heavy bags from higher.

Meta earnings are legit the biggest furnace money burning operation you will ever see for 200B+ market cap company.

How Zuck isn't fired is unreal.





Combo you should always look at.


Crude up = market down

10 year yield up = market down

DXY up = market down.



only way market can reverse if those go down.

Yeah they really were terrible. Especially amazon.

The market is still too optimistic IMO






Except oil, that can keep doing what its doing

Took profits on chevron puts at the closing bell, only holding a few left. I think oil will briefly sell off then continue upward.

Hourly RSI at 20. There gonna have to pump that up on low volume if we’re gonna dump more

I expect a little bounce too and I'll short it. Mid terms or not I don't think the market has enough juice.

[RobParks2M]

Just gonna ride out my puts for the next couple of weeks, wait for DJIA to hit $26k, then max out my Roth for the year and buy a few grand in 2024 DIA/SPY/QQQ calls.

Did you edit your post? I swear your post had said calls initially... but even my quote says puts. I must be losing it lmao

[SipNPiz]

Anyone got the latest 2008-2009 overlay for the s&p to todays chart? Or the sauce so I don’t need to keep pestering y’all for it lol

[imbeingcereal]

Lolololol rally not holding this time. It is almost time to buy bonds again 5-6% safe income is going to suck all the USD from equity markets. You would be foolish not to

In case you missed fed did what fed said they would and hiked 0.75 and markets jumped for no reason.

Forget buying “safe” companies like grocery or consumer staples. Go straight to bonds.

I do think bonds will suck a lot of money out of equities, but I don't think 5-6% would be enticing enough for a lot of investors. If inflation continues to run hot at 8%, you're essentially locking in a 1-2% real loss by buying bonds. The long-run return of stonks is around 7% (I think) in real returns and are still the better vehicle for building wealth if you have a long horizon.

If bonds go to 7-8%, esepcially for 5+ years, that could get REALLY interesting and shake things up quite a bit.

[_zman]

Welp retirement plan limits went up, but no inflation rite?

[chickenbroccoli]

They also don't want the bottom to fall out either. They've needed to offload treasuries for forever now. They could have when the market was popping.

They tried in 2018 but Trump got pissed and they backed off.

This time they are really going for it Biden doesn’t know what’s going on.

[RobParks2M]

I do think bonds will suck a lot of money out of equities, but I don't think 5-6% would be enticing enough for a lot of investors. If inflation continues to run hot at 8%, you're essentially locking in a 1-2% real loss by buying bonds. The long-run return of stonks is around 7% (I think) in real returns and are still the better vehicle for building wealth if you have a long horizon.

If bonds go to 7-8%, esepcially for 5+ years, that could get REALLY interesting and shake things up quite a bit.

Inflation is dropping. It’ll be sub 4% within a year. Bond interest rates last a looooong time. Fed wants 2% inflation that’s their goal and they’ve stated it repeatedly. Bonds paying 3x inflation will be the next money printer.

30 year is trading at 4.12 right now

[imbeingcereal]

Inflation is dropping. It’ll be sub 4% within a year. Bond interest rates last a looooong time. Fed wants 2% inflation that’s their goal and they’ve stated it repeatedly. Bonds paying 3x inflation will be the next money printer.

30 year is trading at 4.12 right now

We'll see, but I just don't see inflation dropping sub 4% anytime soon. I think most of the inflation we're seeing is due to supply side impacts and I just don't see the fed being able to do jack chit about it. It certainly won't run 8% hot, but I think we're going to see long-term inflation trends at around 4% (per fake government numbers - real inflation will feel worse). Reason being, I see an overall decrease in productivity in the workforce happening, a trend toward nationalism, and governments that'll continue to spend ad-infinitum, which all tend to be inflationary forces.

Unless those abate or we see a new innovation that increases productivity, I think the era of low reported inflation is over and moderate, persistent inflation is here to stay (say consistent 4-5% inflation per the Government). If bonds reach 7%, or god forbid, 10%+, then I think the calculus changes quite a bit

[2020Wellness]

Uncertain at this point. Any bond funds will likely do. Then when they cut rates in the next 2-3 years it will gain face value too.

I’m just going to stay on track with BND buys then.

[Carbonfibre]

We'll see, but I just don't see inflation dropping sub 4% anytime soon. I think most of the inflation we're seeing is due to supply side impacts and I just don't see the fed being able to do jack chit about it. It certainly won't run 8% hot, but I think we're going to see long-term inflation trends at around 4% (per fake government numbers - real inflation will feel worse). Reason being, I see an overall decrease in productivity in the workforce happening, a trend toward nationalism, and governments that'll continue to spend ad-infinitum, which all tend to be inflationary forces.

Unless those abate or we see a new innovation that increases productivity, I think the era of low reported inflation is over and moderate, persistent inflation is here to stay (say consistent 4-5% inflation per the Government). If bonds reach 7%, or god forbid, 10%+, then I think the calculus changes quite a bit

Correct view.

Not only will we not see 4% any time soon the next print coming after midterms will be above 8% (next week)

Today Jerome threw the whole myth that inflation is dropping to the dumpster.

But this idiotic market (maybe on purpose need to pump and dump) to offload more bags to retail.

Just keeps chasing hopium.

If you want the fed pivot crash the market. Bring SP down to 2800 and than you will see Jerome start panicking.

The higher the market goes the more fed gets aggressive.

Atm any time there is like 1/100 hope in hell that fed will slow down hikes they run this market 200-300 points within week.

Its legit become GME during meme. How SP 500 moves.



Jerome Powell directly told the stock market today to phuck off after reporter asked him why is market reacting positive.


Just watch this clip from today.

https://twitter.com/andycwest/status...12245656551425






I been away since October 21st healthy to stop following this garbage.

Came back today cause FOMC is massive event that will set forward this coming month and looked at SP chart for last week and up to today and went bertstare.jpeg




Btw guess what happens next.

Tmmrw they will start buying dip again more than likely.

Run it till CPI next week so they can dump it again.

[RobParks2M]

We'll see, but I just don't see inflation dropping sub 4% anytime soon. I think most of the inflation we're seeing is due to supply side impacts and I just don't see the fed being able to do jack chit about it. It certainly won't run 8% hot, but I think we're going to see long-term inflation trends at around 4% (per fake government numbers - real inflation will feel worse). Reason being, I see an overall decrease in productivity in the workforce happening, a trend toward nationalism, and governments that'll continue to spend ad-infinitum, which all tend to be inflationary forces.

Unless those abate or we see a new innovation that increases productivity, I think the era of low reported inflation is over and moderate, persistent inflation is here to stay (say consistent 4-5% inflation per the Government). If bonds reach 7%, or god forbid, 10%+, then I think the calculus changes quite a bit

4% by end of October 2023 doesn't seem that unrealistic when the fed is going to keep hiking as they have signaled. Even if they back off and "only" hike 0.50 that is still BIG in the scheme of things. I think fed raised their expected top end to 5%. I have $20k saved that I was going to dump into Ibonds, but honestly wtf is the point when the next 6 months they only will pay 6.5% and you know they will pay significantly less the 2nd half of the year that you are locked in for. I'd rather buy plain bonds in March and watch value go up when they do small rate cuts late 2023(which is their current forecast that they anticipate). I will adjust as we get closer to March and the fed decides if they will go with further hikes into summer or if they realize they are doing too much too fast and they fuk up the economy in the meantime.

I’m just going to stay on track with BND buys then.

Why buy bond funds right now? All you are doing is taking a guaranteed loss. That isn't speculation. That isn't a wild guess. Every hike drops the value of older bonds. IMO- just hold cash instead of dropping it into BND and start adding when fed is less certain they will continue hiking. Also thanks for reminding me of BND. That is probably what I'll go with when the time is right.


@carbon yep fed doesn't want equity bubble and every time it tries to inflate they are doing anything they can to pop it. After moves I made Friday my retirement is big chill at 75% cash and about 9% loss YTD. 1.5x Better than bond funds

@Venom are you still holding your short Euro position? The news today should spell trouble globally for currencies trading against USD no?


I am scared as fuk for all the smallcap shytcos I own though...they might be in for some trouble. Particularly those with poor cashflow

[Venom08]

Yep. I am long UUP (bullish US$) calls and long EUO (bearish Euro) calls.
I can see the US$ making record all-time highs in the coming years, as the EU goes down the chitter and the EURO heads to 0.

[mulletwarrior]

4% by end of October 2023 doesn't seem that unrealistic when the fed is going to keep hiking as they have signaled. Even if they back off and "only" hike 0.50 that is still BIG in the scheme of things. I think fed raised their expected top end to 5%. I have $20k saved that I was going to dump into Ibonds, but honestly wtf is the point when the next 6 months they only will pay 6.5% and you know they will pay significantly less the 2nd half of the year that you are locked in for. I'd rather buy plain bonds in March and watch value go up when they do small rate cuts late 2023(which is their current forecast that they anticipate). I will adjust as we get closer to March and the fed decides if they will go with further hikes into summer or if they realize they are doing too much too fast and they fuk up the economy in the meantime.



Why buy bond funds right now? All you are doing is taking a guaranteed loss. That isn't speculation. That isn't a wild guess. Every hike drops the value of older bonds. IMO- just hold cash instead of dropping it into BND and start adding when fed is less certain they will continue hiking. Also thanks for reminding me of BND. That is probably what I'll go with when the time is right.


@carbon yep fed doesn't want equity bubble and every time it tries to inflate they are doing anything they can to pop it. After moves I made Friday my retirement is big chill at 75% cash and about 9% loss YTD. 1.5x Better than bond funds

@Venom are you still holding your short Euro position? The news today should spell trouble globally for currencies trading against USD no?


I am scared as fuk for all the smallcap shytcos I own though...they might be in for some trouble. Particularly those with poor cashflow

Remember the inflation metric they use is year-over-year. At some point soon they are going to his a wall where because prior years y/y inflation was 8%, the y/y inflation for this year is 4% or less. May even see that Q1 of next year tbh, given that 2022 y/y inflation started getting nuts in q1 of 2022.

What is hilarious is the Biden team will put up a big "WE DID IT!" press release when it happens, ignoring that inflation from 2 years ago will still be at like 10%.

[Lefticle]

Fkn LOL @ SOFI trading where it's at. They had a flawless quarter.


Revenue: Revenue came in at $419.3M beating estimates of $391.8M by 7%. Q3 2021 revenue was $277.2M, representing 51% year-over-year growth. This was SOFI’s 6th straight quarter of record revenue growth, despite the student loan moratorium and soaring mortgage/interest rates.

Members: Members came in at 4.74M. Q3 2021 members were 2.94M, representing 61% year-over-year growth.

Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA came in at $44.3M beating estimates of $30.8M by 43%.

Balance Sheet: SOFI has $935M in cash on the balance sheet versus $707M last quarter and $533M in Q3 of 2021.

Bank Deposits/Bank Charter: SOFI grew deposits by 86% from last quarter to $4.94B and continues to average a $100M per week deposit rate. The median FICO score of new direct deposits is over 750 which makes credit losses and delinquencies less of a concern.

Guidance: SOFI again raised full-year 2022 guidance. They increased their expected revenue by ~1% and EBITDA by ~10%.



The quarter was fantastic. They continue to grow rapidly and leadership is executing in all facets of their business, despite the student loan moratorium and a challenging interest rate environment. Very frustrating in the short term, but there is a lot of money to be made on the other side of this selloff.

[dankydank]

They pumped the hourly RSI from 10 to 40 while keeping it flat at -1.3% Nice little 🐻 flag for the next leg down

[RobParks2M]

They pumped the hourly RSI from 10 to 40 while keeping it flat at -1.3% Nice little 🐻 flag for the next leg down

Look at the 1 year spy chart. You can literally see we were at the peak for the bear trend’s “bull run”. Now we find a new low and we carry on

[chickenbroccoli]

DASH rallying after earnings. Wall Street knows everyone will be working there after they lose their jobs.

[RobParks2M]

Fkn LOL @ SOFI trading where it's at. They had a flawless quarter.


Revenue: Revenue came in at $419.3M beating estimates of $391.8M by 7%. Q3 2021 revenue was $277.2M, representing 51% year-over-year growth. This was SOFI’s 6th straight quarter of record revenue growth, despite the student loan moratorium and soaring mortgage/interest rates.

Members: Members came in at 4.74M. Q3 2021 members were 2.94M, representing 61% year-over-year growth.

Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA came in at $44.3M beating estimates of $30.8M by 43%.

Balance Sheet: SOFI has $935M in cash on the balance sheet versus $707M last quarter and $533M in Q3 of 2021.

Bank Deposits/Bank Charter: SOFI grew deposits by 86% from last quarter to $4.94B and continues to average a $100M per week deposit rate. The median FICO score of new direct deposits is over 750 which makes credit losses and delinquencies less of a concern.

Guidance: SOFI again raised full-year 2022 guidance. They increased their expected revenue by ~1% and EBITDA by ~10%.



The quarter was fantastic. They continue to grow rapidly and leadership is executing in all facets of their business, despite the student loan moratorium and a challenging interest rate environment. Very frustrating in the short term, but there is a lot of money to be made on the other side of this selloff.

Their savings interest rate is higher than my mortgage lmao. It’s so crazy how many low interest obligations I was thinking of paying off fast but now I’d rather just collect interest than pay.

[dankydank]

Got 0 dte QQQ 265ps today. Got scam wicked out at 10:44 for 30% loss when I went to take a shower and set a stop loss. I come out and it would be up 80%, now up 400%. $10k+ day gone in a 1 min candle scam wick

[MinisterOfLust]

Twilio is killing me.

I can't understand why is it going down so much

[RobParks2M]

Seriously. I just opened a SoFi savings account for the majority of my cash lol. Currently at 3%. My mortgage is 2.25%. When I refi'd my house, I should have just pulled all cash possible out of it and stuck it in a SoFi account lol

Lololol fukkin this. Shouldda cash out refi’d. Oh well

[MinisterOfLust]

Market went from red to green.

Strong rally

[meep316]

Run this scam back up to 380 so I can go all in on puts please

[Venom08]

Life ins. giant Lincoln Financial (LFO) just reported a $2BB loss for Q3. Their stock dropped 30% on the news. Hmmmm, looking into their financials it looks like it's because of the 282% increase in life insurance payouts they had to make b/w June and Sept. 2022. Wow. I wonder why this is happening....

[RobParks2M]

must be all the excess deaths due to climate change and racism

oof, I need to buy puts on every life insurance company, they're all going to have massive losses

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/11...dwill-changes/



What in the fuk. They're claiming they lost $2.6 billion because there are more people over 75 that are likely to keep life insurance policies? honk honk



I wonder why they would not separate the unusual items.

The population is aging and they didn’t raise the premiums fast enough to get boomers to drop their coverage. That and I think a lot of people started selling their plan to 3rd parties that take over payments and take the money in exchange for cash upfront.


EDIT:

Holy fuk lmao! ACI was told they have to halt dividend payment that is supposed to be paid 11/7 by a judge in Washington and earliest it could be paid was 11/10. Perhaps it only applies to insiders? My dividend posted to my account today already. Gonna withdraw it and whatever cash I have in account so they can't take it back

[lntense]

Finally had a really good day Friday.


Had FXI calls from Monday I got at .03. They finished Friday up to like .23. Locked in half at 600%+.

Won on tsla and apple calls.


Rest of the week prior was garbage.

[RobParks2M]

Not raising premiums = 2.2 billion loss?
Also what do you mean by 3rd parties taking the money in exchange for cash upfront? Confusing

By not raising premiums enough old people are keeping their plans instead of letting them drop off leaving the insurer off the hook with all their premiums they paid over the years.

Companies buy old folk's life insurance policy and keep paying the premiums for them and give cash up front maybe 10-20cents on the dollar or something. So when they die the company gets the full life insurance $$$ and the old person gets the cash before they die.

[_zman]

Life ins. giant Lincoln Financial (LFO) just reported a $2BB loss for Q3. Their stock dropped 30% on the news. Hmmmm, looking into their financials it looks like it's because of the 282% increase in life insurance payouts they had to make b/w June and Sept. 2022. Wow. I wonder why this is happening....

Surely has nothing to do with a safe and effective vaccine that saves lives.

[Venom08]

Not raising premiums = 2.2 billion loss?
Also what do you mean by 3rd parties taking the money in exchange for cash upfront? Confusing

This Lincoln company is also the only life insurance company to report the massive surge in unexpected deaths in the 18-49 group

[SipNPiz]

Getting 3.75% interest on my Robinhood broker cash is pretty sweet.