Stock Market 2022

[ECGordyn]

What's your view on the current state of the markets? Is the bubble bursting, or is this downtrend just a temporary setback, or anything in-between?

There are a number of long-term problems that have been crashing the markets significantly for the past 4-5 months. Inflation, supply-chain, interest rates, fiscal "policies," the Russia-Ukraine war, "zero-covid policy," overvalued stocks, some disappointing earnings reports in Q1, etc. Will these problems bring down the markets much further, or are we near the bottom?

There's been what looks like a massive bubble growing for the past 2 years. Now we've seen 6 straight weeks of selling. S&P is down almost 17% since mid-December 2021. It's starting to look like capitulation last week and Monday this week, except we've not yet hit pre-pandemic levels on the major indices. I imagine everyone's portfolio is red so far this year, but what's the consensus on buying, holding, or selling, and why?

For entertainment purposes only. Nobody's opinion should be taken as financial advice.

[NotJtbny]

What's your view on the current state of the markets? Is the bubble bursting, or is this downtrend just a temporary setback, or anything in-between?

There are a number of long-term problems that have been crashing the markets significantly for the past 4-5 months. Inflation, supply-chain, interest rates, fiscal "policies," the Russia-Ukraine war, "zero-covid policy," overvalued stocks, some disappointing earnings reports in Q1, etc. Will these problems bring down the markets much further, or are we near the bottom?

There's been what looks like a massive bubble growing for the past 2 years. Now we've seen 6 straight weeks of selling. S&P is down almost 17% since mid-December 2021. It's starting to look like capitulation last week and Monday this week, except we've not yet hit pre-pandemic levels on the major indices. I imagine everyone's portfolio is red so far this year, but what's the consensus on buying, holding, or selling, and why?

For entertainment purposes only. Nobody's opinion should be taken as financial advice.

If your retirement is still many years away (20 for me) I wouldn't worry about it. If you are actively trading - this market is a dumpster fire and IMO hasn't bottomed out quite yet. But lets have some perspective here too - the market is still at about where it was prior to Biden and we were all celebrating then. Also, if energy is a metric one follows for overall market sentiment then we might be about to stabilize.

Balance sheets matter now (unlike the past 2 years) so strong companies will remain strong and tech is only going to grow.

I'm still thinking we see another large bull run before years end.

[Mark1T]

If your retirement is still many years away (20 for me) I wouldn't worry about it. If you are actively trading - this market is a dumpster fire and IMO hasn't bottomed out quite yet. But lets have some perspective here too - the market is still at about where it was prior to Biden and we were all celebrating then. Also, if energy is a metric one follows for overall market sentiment then we might be about to stabilize.

Balance sheets matter now (unlike the past 2 years) so strong companies will remain strong and tech is only going to grow.

I'm still thinking we see another large bull run before years end.

Agreed, market has not bottomed out, yet. 10-Year above 3%, money flying from equities, but limited, because it is a long commitment.

Too volatile for me. Close to Bear Market and possible recession.

[IH8RICE]

If your retirement is still many years away (20 for me) I wouldn't worry about it. If you are actively trading - this market is a dumpster fire and IMO hasn't bottomed out quite yet. But lets have some perspective here too - the market is still at about where it was prior to Biden and we were all celebrating then. Also, if energy is a metric one follows for overall market sentiment then we might be about to stabilize.

Balance sheets matter now (unlike the past 2 years) so strong companies will remain strong and tech is only going to grow.

I'm still thinking we see another large bull run before years end.

Agreed, market has not bottomed out, yet. 10-Year above 3%, money flying from equities, but limited, because it is a long commitment.

Too volatile for me. Close to Bear Market and possible recession.

Agreed with both of these.

[Mark1T]

POTUS Inflation Plan: $1 Trillion+ more spending and taxing the rich.

Idiots.

[NorwichGrad]

Sit back and relax. Buy the dip.

The 5th leg on the Elliott Wave has not gone up yet. New records will be made. Then blow off top and we will see the real crash.

Everything - especially the distractions thrown at us (will smith, roe v wade, depp, etc...) - are all part of the plan.

The oligarchs will crash the dollar and usher in the next digital monetary system CBDC riding on the blockchain. This is why Brandon is talking about student loan forgiveness. It's a form of debt jubilee. There is nothing new under the sun.

10-year-yield is a key metric.

The retail crypto doods are also being shaken out. We saw this when FAANGs were in their infancy. We are seeing it again.

So I agree with both John and Mark. Interestingly, they are also active on that trading thread that John started years ago but very few take the time to read. Why? Distractions. LOL.

The real question is: What are you broz doing so you don't starve? Food shortages are here. It will get worse. All by design.

[Mark1T]

Big G ^^ Only part I don't agree with is buying the dip right now - only because we haven't seen the bottom yet. Different animal.

[NorwichGrad]

Big G ^^ Only part I don't agree with is buying the dip right now - only because we haven't seen the bottom yet. Different animal.

Oh I agree. When I wrote 'buy the dip' I didn't mean buy now.

Regardless, this is a much needed 'normal' but not normal 'correction.'

There are no fundamentals any more as you know. The real economy is completely detached from the markets as you also know. But the patterns still follow the graph.

[NotJtbny]

POTUS Inflation Plan: $1 Trillion+ more spending and taxing the rich.

Idiots.

I haven't looked into the "plan" but if spent on infrastructure it would be a very good thing all around. But knowing how politics work and especially the progressives it will have earmarks for their bs agenda. And lets just keep sending billions to Ukraine while we have many issues here including a broken healthcare system, massive homelessness etc. When will it stop? Why does the US constantly need to be the money man for the world? (It's a rhetorical question of course it's just maddening).

If one was to "buy the dip" I'd leg in slowly. There are some really good long hold bargains right now.

[PhDPepper1111]

Big G ^^ Only part I don't agree with is buying the dip right now - only because we haven't seen the bottom yet. Different animal.

well if you were active you could have bought early yesterday and sold today

In any case, I always say live prepared for everything to really truly fall apart, but invest wisely. I HOPE to have a nice retirement from my investments some day, but if I have to go join my in-laws in Idaho some day and live off the land we'll make do.

[bustasinclair]

My dumba$$ went to a conference a couple weeks ago on crypto currency and I found it interesting so I bought a small position in Bitcoin when it was at ~$41,000. Feel like a total tool... Oh well, I need to be involved more as our client base is looking for expertise.

[Mark1T]

well if you were active you could have bought early yesterday and sold today

If I was a gambler I am happy to miss short-term opportunities because I'm not a day trader and most institutional investors missed yesterday, as well. I am long-term.

[Tommy W.]

My tech stocks up slightly today......

[NorwichGrad]

My dumba$$ went to a conference a couple weeks ago on crypto currency and I found it interesting so I bought a small position in Bitcoin when it was at ~$41,000. Feel like a total tool... Oh well, I need to be involved more as our client base is looking for expertise.

I'm surprised you being an accounting professional have not speculated in cryptos yet.

There are lots of noises and distractions. I encourage all to look into the space. Unfortunately, cryptos will usher in the next level of slavery and tyrannical measure when we go cashless. But we have to be pragmatic and look at opportunities and decide what to do when we profit.

The next 1% will be in cryptos. This I am convinced.

[NorwichGrad]

I haven't looked into the "plan" but if spent on infrastructure it would be a very good thing all around. But knowing how politics work and especially the progressives it will have earmarks for their bs agenda. And lets just keep sending billions to Ukraine while we have many issues here including a broken healthcare system, massive homelessness etc. When will it stop? Why does the US constantly need to be the money man for the world? (It's a rhetorical question of course it's just maddening).

If one was to "buy the dip" I'd leg in slowly. There are some really good long hold bargains right now.

If I was a gambler I am happy to miss short-term opportunities because I'm not a day trader and most institutional investors missed yesterday, as well. I am long-term.

You probably know this by now, as you both follow the same info I track.

But the fed just laid the foundation for more QE. We know what this means.

And I am also long term. I do not have stomach to day or swing trade.

[bustasinclair]

I'm surprised you being an accounting professional have not speculated in cryptos yet.

There are lots of noises and distractions. I encourage all to look into the space. Unfortunately, cryptos will usher in the next level of slavery and tyrannical measure when we go cashless. But we have to be pragmatic and look at opportunities and decide what to do when we profit.

The next 1% will be in cryptos. This I am convinced.

I have been tempted many times, but just never pulled the proverbial trigger.

I have my own views on the stock market and I have avoided it my entire life. I started life as a blue-collar worker and didn't get out of that cesspool until I was 33. Every time the 'stockholders' had a problem with the stock price, we paid the price with tighter labor budgets and other cost reduction measures that we, as blue-collar workers, only felt. So, I will not buy stock for that reason. I know it's a bit short-sighted, but that's my crazy moral compass as misdirected as some may think.

[NorwichGrad]

I have been tempted many times, but just never pulled the proverbial trigger.

I have my own views on the stock market and I have avoided it my entire life. I started life as a blue-collar worker and didn't get out of that cesspool until I was 33. Every time the 'stockholders' had a problem with the stock price, we paid the price with tighter labor budgets and other cost reduction measures that we, as blue-collar workers, only felt. So, I will not buy stock for that reason. I know it's a bit short-sighted, but that's my crazy moral compass as misdirected as some may think.

RESPECT!!!

Seriously. Real talk.

And I completely understand. I avoided cryptos for years although I saw what it would do. I studied cryptos when bitcoin was 'only' 70 bucks. That same moral compass you have prevented me from speculating because I knew that in the future (which is now), we would eventually kill the dollar and replace with CBDC riding on the blockchain. (Not necessarily Bitcoin, as bitcoin is a lure because there are other gubmint / central banks traps. Though BTC will hit a million someday.) I knew that digital cash will usher in the next level of tyranny. Cashless = No freedom.

So I fought internally for years. Moral compass.

Then I realized, if I ever become wealthy, what's more important is how I will use that wealth to serve others, not what kind of toy or mansion to buy.

The whole casino is rigged against us common man. But if we know how their game, we cannot be played. At the moment, what we are seeing is a healthy correction plus an effort to shake off the weak hands.

[bustasinclair]

RESPECT!!!

Seriously. Real talk.

And I completely understand. I avoided cryptos for years although I saw what it would do. I studied cryptos when bitcoin was 'only' 70 bucks. That same moral compass you have prevented me from speculating because I knew that in the future (which is now), we would eventually kill the dollar and replace with CBDC riding on the blockchain. (Not necessarily Bitcoin, as bitcoin is a lure because there are other gubmint / central banks traps. Though BTC will hit a million someday.) I knew that digital cash will usher in the next level of tyranny. Cashless = No freedom.

So I fought internally for years. Moral compass.

Then I realized, if I ever become wealthy, what's more important is how I will use that wealth to serve others, not what kind of toy or mansion to buy.

The whole casino is rigged against us common man. But if we know how their game, we cannot be played. At the moment, what we are seeing is a healthy correction plus an effort to shake off the weak hands.

That's a great way of looking at it (using stock market acquired wealth to help others). Maybe soon I'll change my mind and dip my toes in the water. All day I sit and look at others' portfolios and record capital gains; it's a bit unnerving to keep standing my ground at times.

I might have mentioned this in another thread, but I finally just became a CPA and am in the process of purchasing 50% of the Firm where I work. SBA application being filled out this week. Never in my life did I expect to be here as I grew up pretty damn poor. I'm going to make my own wealth regardless of what investments I may make. Hopefully your predictions don't ruin my plans.

[NorwichGrad]

That's a great way of looking at it (using stock market acquired wealth to help others). Maybe soon I'll change my mind and dip my toes in the water. All day I sit and look at others' portfolios and record capital gains; it's a bit unnerving to keep standing my ground at times.

I might have mentioned this in another thread, but I finally just became a CPA and am in the process of purchasing 50% of the Firm where I work. SBA application being filled out this week. Never in my life did I expect to be here as I grew up pretty damn poor. I'm going to make my own wealth regardless of what investments I may make. Hopefully your predictions don't ruin my plans.

Congrats on your accomplishment! You worked hard to achieve it.

Nothing wrong with acquiring wealth, as long as we pay it forward.

[NotJtbny]

That's a great way of looking at it (using stock market acquired wealth to help others). Maybe soon I'll change my mind and dip my toes in the water. All day I sit and look at others' portfolios and record capital gains; it's a bit unnerving to keep standing my ground at times.

I might have mentioned this in another thread, but I finally just became a CPA and am in the process of purchasing 50% of the Firm where I work. SBA application being filled out this week. Never in my life did I expect to be here as I grew up pretty damn poor. I'm going to make my own wealth regardless of what investments I may make. Hopefully your predictions don't ruin my plans.

Thats awesome news!! Congrats.

[KeepItMoving]

POTUS Inflation Plan: $1 Trillion+ more spending and taxing the rich.

Idiots.

This. It's still dropping, and yes, we predicted all of this when Biden 'won.'

[Cantplankwell]

I haven't trusted the market for 3 years now, we got out late 2019, we only have one stock left (MCD) and a few conservative ETFs, mostly in cash since then. Since interest rates for savers have been so low for a long time, seeing them on the rise again...along with record inflation has got me feeling all the fizzz is going to get sucked out over the next year or two back to say 2018 levels, lots of FOMO speculators are going to get hurt.

At 56 I cant afford to make any mistakes and my wife wants me retired by the time I am 60, even if we have to sell our house to do so.

In the process of setting up our first GIC ("CD" in the USA) ladder. Its better than nothing, or watching your money shrink faster on the stock market, (FWIW...If I had 10+ years to go I would stay in)

Other than volatile tech stocks I really think the economy has been on life support for too long.

Read about where Japan has been for sometime, that is where I think we are heading.

[Tommy W.]

This. It's still dropping, and yes, we predicted all of this when Biden 'won.'

lol and the 1T siphoned off into politicians shell corporations...

[thomashenry]

This should be reassuring for the mkts https://twitter.com/greg_price11/sta...SMjbyX3sRW6Flg


https://twitter.com/greg_price11/sta...SRq5VIi-nE02Kg

[bustasinclair]

Congrats on your accomplishment! You worked hard to achieve it.

Nothing wrong with acquiring wealth, as long as we pay it forward.

Thats awesome news!! Congrats.

Thank you gentlemen!

You guys have a feel for how low BTC is going. I have a hunch it's going to fall below $20,000 before it's all said and done. Tempted to sell my $1k position just because I'm tired of watching it drop....

[NotJtbny]

Thank you gentlemen!

You guys have a feel for how low BTC is going. I have a hunch it's going to fall below $20,000 before it's all said and done. Tempted to sell my $1k position just because I'm tired of watching it drop....

No clue. Maybe Joel does but I've been on record here saying I'm not a crypto believer. Personally I look at it as a giant scheme.

[NorwichGrad]

Thank you gentlemen!

You guys have a feel for how low BTC is going. I have a hunch it's going to fall below $20,000 before it's all said and done. Tempted to sell my $1k position just because I'm tired of watching it drop....

Absolutely NO idea how low BTC will go. I think long term. Long term BTC will be just fine.

I have alt coins, but I watch BTC closely because all alt coins are pegged to BTC, and BTC is pegged to the stock market, and the stock market is manipulated by fed QE.

So here is my long term OPINION, based on the intent of the powers that be behind the curtain.

Stocks will be tokenized. That means NYSE, and DOW, and S&P will also ride on the blockchain. This means Stocks and cryptos will FLIP. The market cap on cryptos right now is under 1.5 trillion. But there will come a point where the market cap on cryptos will be greater than stocks - because stocks will be tokenized. This is why BTC will be fine longterm.

But to me, greater opportunities are in alt coins. Not to sound greedy, but why let your money double on BTC if it can quadruple X on alt coins.

You have heard me say although we see stocks and cryptos 'crash' all around us, but this is a normal correction. I expect to see another leg up on the 5th leg of the Elliott Wave, then after this, we can see stocks, and cryptos to include btc and alt coins drop all the way to 80%. Then buy the dip.

Why am I convinced this the NOT the crash? Because crashes do not end in fear, they end in euphoria. And right now the fear index is at an all time high.

JT made a thread on day trading. You should swing by and see what everybody is doing. There are only a few participants there.

[Cantplankwell]

No clue. Maybe Joel does but I've been on record here saying I'm not a crypto believer. Personally I look at it as a giant scheme.

My son has a 2500 square foot house he made on Minecraft for sale....C$700,000, might be a better investment.

[NorwichGrad]

No clue. Maybe Joel does but I've been on record here saying I'm not a crypto believer. Personally I look at it as a giant scheme.

And you are right, my friend. The whole crypto space is indeed a scheme, and a dangerous one because it will take away privacy when we go cashless. I do speculate as you know, with the intent of taking the digital profit when the time comes to convert to tangible assets like silver and real estate.

[bustasinclair]

No clue. Maybe Joel does but I've been on record here saying I'm not a crypto believer. Personally I look at it as a giant scheme.

I'm with ya. I was in a college class back in 2018 and there was a group of students who were adamant that the crypto market was going to explode and advised me to get in. I laughed it off. The price was ~ $7,500 back then. It made no sense to me. Now that I bought a small position, I do feel like I got taken, but there are credible predictions that this stuff is here to stay. Who knows?