MISC Crypto Crew (MCC) Vol: XV: Getting Zucked into the Metaverse

[Bingo559]

does everyone here mostly think we are in the bull run already? if so, would 11/2023 be considered the rough start of it? i'm trying to estimate when the peak will be and figure out some exit date ranges.

i dont think i accumulated enough to make it, but maybe i can get some new toys and put more into tradfi stonks this time around. Still a more than slight possibility I fumble it but trying to prevent that.

[Horse86]

does everyone here mostly think we are in the bull run already? if so, would 11/2023 be considered the rough start of it? i'm trying to estimate when the peak will be and figure out some exit date ranges.

i dont think i accumulated enough to make it, but maybe i can get some new toys and put more into tradfi stonks this time around. Still a more than slight possibility I fumble it but trying to prevent that.

It’s been a bull run since I called (and bought more) the 15k bottom. You’re already almost 2x’d late.

[Bingo559]

It’s been a bull run since I called (and bought more) the 15k bottom. You’re already almost 2x’d late.

well i have been around since 2018. i bought the top when btc was around 15k in late 2017. then i kept adding on periodically till now. i would say I maybe made a 4-5x by the time we reached the peak in 2021. then i didnt sell. worse, i added more in early 2022.

So you think that the bull run started immediately after the November 2022 bottom? I always thought it was more of an accumulation, choppy/consolidate market. And I personally thought the bull run started late october of this year. and my belief is that the bull run goes for 8-12 months, but ALT season is only 4-6 months. that would make BTC top around July-October of next year. With peak alt szn in the summer

So I am targeting May/June of next year as a potential point of selling maybe 30-40%. And then selling another 30-40% end of summer, early fall. And hold around 25% as a long term hodl

[brbacquiring]

does everyone here mostly think we are in the bull run already? if so, would 11/2023 be considered the rough start of it? i'm trying to estimate when the peak will be and figure out some exit date ranges.

i dont think i accumulated enough to make it, but maybe i can get some new toys and put more into tradfi stonks this time around. Still a more than slight possibility I fumble it but trying to prevent that.

People have their own definitions of bull/bear phases. I personally agree with Horse86 ^ that it makes sense to say we've been bull since the bottom (just as we were bear from the previous top to that bottom) because then it's just binary and you don't need to come up with other terms to describe in between phases and it's defined clearly by price action/reversals. BTC is up, what, 2.4x since the bottom? Sounds bullish to me.

However, some people would emphasise bullRUN to mean only the final few months of a bull cycle, maybe up to the final year at most. I would say that we can use terms like "mania phase" to describe this. In very casual conversation, though, I would still ask such questions as "wen bullrun" to basically mean what you do.

well i have been around since 2018. i bought the top when btc was around 15k in late 2017. then i kept adding on periodically till now. i would say I maybe made a 4-5x by the time we reached the peak in 2021. then i didnt sell. worse, i added more in early 2022.

Happens, sir. I mark my ten year anniversary in crypto (thanks to the misc!) this month and each cycle you just **** up in different ways, kek.

So you think that the bull run started immediately after the November 2022 bottom? I always thought it was more of an accumulation, choppy/consolidate market. And I personally thought the bull run started late october of this year.

In the end it's not meaningful to really pin down these terms onto the dates in question - the chart is the chart and that's what matters. There have been periods of chop and consolidation in the last year (e.g. November and December 2022, and other stretches like this summer) but overall 2023 has been really solid growth for BTC, it could hardly have been better for the first year after the bottom. Perhaps it's the "run" part of "bullrun" that's making you doubt whether it applies here. It's been bullish, at least, right? There are people ITT back to ATH already and loads of mega action in ****coins already. Aside from BTC's own strong performance.

and my belief is that the bull run goes for 8-12 months, but ALT season is only 4-6 months. that would make BTC top around July-October of next year. With peak alt szn in the summer

So I am targeting May/June of next year as a potential point of selling maybe 30-40%. And then selling another 30-40% end of summer, early fall. And hold around 25% as a long term hodl

It's exciting to think about but I don't think it's worth your energy to try and predict or plan stuff like that. Next summer BTC could easily be the same price it is now, would you still sell? For instance, consider a scenario in which we get an ETF approval in January or something, BTC pumps into the 50's but then stalls after the excitement wears off and comes back down before regrouping and trying for ATH around the start of 2025, might look something like this:



I am NOT necessarily predicting this but it's a very plausible scenario, and in fact would be amazing because it would set us up for the full four-year cycle again instead of the worrying left-translated option which could see us peak in one year instead of two. That's much harder to play, wouldn't get as high, will probably leave a lot of our alts out in the cold, and will likely have a couple of years of bear afterwards.

If something like that ^ happened and you sold next summer then RIP. It's too soon yet to say whether we will top next year or the year after. The moment BTC breaks ATH is an important one to watch, you could say that's when we're really in the "don't **** it up" phase of handling this cycle. Could be a year more from that point, or maybe we see something entirely different like a much earlier (heavily front-run) top, or maybe le supercycle meme and it just keeps going. Either of those will **** people up pretty nicely.

[Berts]

This made me LMAO, Its so true. ETH is trash other then a store of value.

"Oh... you want to pay with Ethereum?"

"Yes! Please!"

"That will be $12 plus $48 for fees."

"Wow! Awsome!"

"Sorry, the payment was declined. Do you want to try with a higher fee?"

"With pleasure! Thank you!"

"That's weird! Your money was transferred but the transaction was reversed."

"No problem! That's a feature! Thanks!"

[Bingo559]

People have their own definitions of bull/bear phases. I personally agree with Horse86 ^ that it makes sense to say we've been bull since the bottom (just as we were bear from the previous top to that bottom) because then it's just binary and you don't need to come up with other terms to describe in between phases and it's defined clearly by price action/reversals. BTC is up, what, 2.4x since the bottom? Sounds bullish to me.

However, some people would emphasise bullRUN to mean only the final few months of a bull cycle, maybe up to the final year at most. I would say that we can use terms like "mania phase" to describe this. In very casual conversation, though, I would still ask such questions as "wen bullrun" to basically mean what you do.


If something like that ^ happened and you sold next summer then RIP. It's too soon yet to say whether we will top next year or the year after. The moment BTC breaks ATH is an important one to watch, you could say that's when we're really in the "don't **** it up" phase of handling this cycle. Could be a year more from that point, or maybe we see something entirely different like a much earlier (heavily front-run) top, or maybe le supercycle meme and it just keeps going. Either of those will **** people up pretty nicely.

Yea, I was referring to the manic/euphoric phase, so you and horse are right that we have been in a bullrun since January.

When i was looking at charts a few weeks ago, i was looking at how long the rsi stayed in the overvalued range. i think they were about 3-4 months on the coins i looked at. btc was above 80 rsi from 11/2020-2/2021. November 2020 the price was about 14k. February wasnt the absolute top, but you could have gotten out between 45-58k. that would've been a 3-4x had you gotten in 11/20 and out 3/21. It seems like we are getting near 80 rsi again, so if it were to make another 3-4x in the next 3-4 months, maybe 110k-145k might be this cycle top?

EDIT: I was looking at weekly RSI

but i agree that it would be important to see how things are when btc reaches it's topping area of 65k or so.

I know its impossible to time everything, but just want to get some realistic numbers to think about, if/when they get there.

[Parkerscott]

Yea, I was referring to the manic/euphoric phase, so you and horse are right that we have been in a bullrun since January.

When i was looking at charts a few weeks ago, i was looking at how long the rsi stayed in the overvalued range. i think they were about 3-4 months on the coins i looked at. btc was above 80 rsi from 11/2020-2/2021. November 2020 the price was about 14k. February wasnt the absolute top, but you could have gotten out between 45-58k. that would've been a 3-4x had you gotten in 11/20 and out 3/21. It seems like we are getting near 80 rsi again, so if it were to make another 3-4x in the next 3-4 months, maybe 110k-145k might be this cycle top?

EDIT: I was looking at weekly RSI

but i agree that it would be important to see how things are when btc reaches it's topping area of 65k or so.

I know its impossible to time everything, but just want to get some realistic numbers to think about, if/when they get there.

Its also entirely possible we are in the mid cycle chop. We could very well pump a bit more from here and get some bloody red days on a sell off followed by more chop until a cycle begins again.

Personally im just building positions and think we have some more time before the next one.

At the end of the day markets are just human nature. People are still licking their wounds, and two years isn't a whole lot of time for a new generation to enter the market. I would really like for the market to just go crazy again, and would like to be proven wrong as it would be in my best interest, but I think were in for some sideways action for a bit. Just enough action for people to know theres still a pulse. Theres not really any hot narratives right now other than ordinals also. I think there will need to be a bigger catalyst to start setting things into motion.

All I can say about the timing as I spent one bullrun selling too early, and one selling too late, is that you know you are in the thick of it when you are taking screenshots of your account and you start seeing limos. When that happens, literally dump everything you have and eat the tax bill no matter how disgusting it is.

[Oceanofthc]

This made me LMAO, Its so true. ETH is trash other then a store of value.

"Oh... you want to pay with Ethereum?"

"Yes! Please!"

"That will be $12 plus $48 for fees."

"Wow! Awsome!"

"Sorry, the payment was declined. Do you want to try with a higher fee?"

"With pleasure! Thank you!"

"That's weird! Your money was transferred but the transaction was reversed."

"No problem! That's a feature! Thanks!"

dude its funny you say this, i was thinking the same, its why i really think Solana is like buying ETH when it was 80$... Solana is way faster, cheaper and eco system way better, i been building a huge staking position and just continue to compound and grow it, it will be 500$+ next year, can over take eth place for real, so much adoption happening with solana aswell

[Berts]

dude its funny you say this, i was thinking the same, its why i really think Solana is like buying ETH when it was 80$... Solana is way faster, cheaper and eco system way better, i been building a huge staking position and just continue to compound and grow it, it will be 500$+ next year, can over take eth place for real, so much adoption happening with solana aswell

ETH is trash for anything other then a store of value which I believe is way overinflated. I hate ERC20 coins, all of them.

I'll have to check into Solana's Ecosystem. I've been doing the same thing in the Terra Ecosystem. Staking and Baking. Terra coins have been great that last coupe months. Same with Osmosis Ecosystem.

[Berts]

Binance just burned half a million dollars worth of LUNC, 4 Billion coins. Every month they burn half their trading fees of LUNC. Volume was through the roof the last week and it paid off. People were worried with CZ stepping down the burn would stop. NOPE!!!!!!!! Still a insane amount of supply but no other coin burns like LUNC does.

The new CEO is a huge LUNC supporter as well.

Keep our eyes on the Terrra Ecosystem

[Oceanofthc]

ETH is trash for anything other then a store of value which I believe is way overinflated. I hate ERC20 coins, all of them.

I'll have to check into Solana's Ecosystem. I've been doing the same thing in the Terra Ecosystem. Staking and Baking. Terra coins have been great that last coupe months. Same with Osmosis Ecosystem.

facts , man osmosis has been great aswell, ETH is so over rated , over hyped lmao. and i never really looked into terra since those dark days, but i hearing alot lately, will have to check it out

[Bingo559]

ETH is trash for anything other then a store of value which I believe is way overinflated. I hate ERC20 coins, all of them.

I'll have to check into Solana's Ecosystem. I've been doing the same thing in the Terra Ecosystem. Staking and Baking. Terra coins have been great that last coupe months. Same with Osmosis Ecosystem.

i didnt cop enough solana. I really didnt expect the move up to be so violent. wish it hung around in the 30s-40s a bit longer. seems like we'll be in the 60s for a few weeks and the zoom to 80?

[Berts]

facts , man osmosis has been great aswell, ETH is so over rated , over hyped lmao. and i never really looked into terra since those dark days, but i hearing alot lately, will have to check it out

Do you play around in Osmosis with Keplr at all? Glitchy POS lately swapping. So annoying. They need to get all the IBC and Parity fixed ASAP. Crypto is fun and then you want to cut your throat. I’m going to try Leap wallet going forward over Keplr. Sounds like that works way better.

With Keplr/Osmosis you can enter your Terra Station seed and it worked great for a long time. I’m curious if the same can be done in Leap.

These DEXs are wild.