MISC Crypto Crew (MCC) Vol: XV: Getting Zucked into the Metaverse

[ProteinEnough]

that is depressing.

Still great gains from the current levels. What do you think the alts will do from here to then? They will go apeshyte wild.

[brbacquiring]

Still great gains from the current levels. What do you think the alts will do from here to then? They will go apeshyte wild.

People will look for, and thereby create, gains in new ****coins all the time - and especially when the majors are stable. That's why you get "alt seasons" when BTC plateaus for a while; people get bored essentially and start putting money into alts looking for a return.

I've been through a few cycles now and honestly this time four years ago I didn't think we'd have anywhere near the ****coin multipliers that we turned out to have - in the end there were actually quite a lot of coins pulling 100-baggers, and I can think of a few off the top of my head that went 1000's of x; I'm sure there are loads I never even heard of, too.

I remember Suppoman (lol) making a vid saying something similar in mid 2018 - that there'll be gains but the volatility will largely dry up after a few more years and 100x's will be a thing of the past. Not so, apparently.

So even if this ^^ theory turns out to be close to the truth and BTC goes, like, 4 or 5x next cycle, IMO there will basically be just as much degen alt chaos as ever before; the market's appetite for ****coining is seemingly insatiable.

[ghostfacedup]

Because he just watched this, kek: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at8sIAvJ0x4

idk, interesting pattern he's spotted.

that sucked to watch but the math and the reasoning are sound. I think diminishing returns is undeniable at this point. I think it's a store of value for that could go crazy in future generations though, but having one btc isn't going to make you wealthy in the next 10 years or so.

what could disrupt all this is the political climate. Rapid inflation, cbdc, could all really boost the demand for btc beyond what any of us can fathom.

[2020Wellness]

Thread getting real slow. We are almost near the bottom

Just grabbed some more sub-19k BTC this morning.

[RobParks2M]

Just grabbed some more sub-19k BTC this morning.

How much are you guys typically buying? Like buys in $1,000-$2,000 chunks? Unsure how to start accumulating, but I'm really thinking I want to grab $20k in bitcoin and maybe $10k in Eth.

[ujelly]

How much are you guys typically buying? Like buys in $1,000-$2,000 chunks? Unsure how to start accumulating, but I'm really thinking I want to grab $20k in bitcoin and maybe $10k in Eth.

We all buy different amounts because we all have different amounts of money and lifestyle. If 20k left your bank tomorrow and you slept well following it, by all means go for it.

[brbacquiring]

How much are you guys typically buying? Like buys in $1,000-$2,000 chunks? Unsure how to start accumulating, but I'm really thinking I want to grab $20k in bitcoin and maybe $10k in Eth.

It depends entirely on your financial circumstances. With majors (BTC, ETH) no amount of money anyone here has is going to suffer slippage so the only issue is your personal stack size and how finely you want to separate it.

With ****coins it's different and you sometimes need to be very careful with accooomoolating so you don't move the chart.

I'm actually not a big fan of intentional "DCA" - but you can run your own numbers and decide for yourself. For example, say across two years, what if you DCA'd 24 lots of $x on the 1st of each month (you have to look up BTC prices on those dates), how much would you have right now vs. if - for each of those 1st-of-the-months - you had aped the entire (24 * $x in one go)?

You can work out how much of the time a one-off ape would have beaten DCA (for example if the ape was near an ATH you'd have lost, but if the ape was near an ATL you'd have won). Try some models like that over different timeframes.

But in the end we just make an emotional decision about it - personally I like apeing, find it psychologically much easier so long as you think you're getting a "decent" entry. Doesn't have to be amazing, or the absolute bottom, just pretty decent. Same goes for selling.

[2020Wellness]

How much are you guys typically buying? Like buys in $1,000-$2,000 chunks? Unsure how to start accumulating, but I'm really thinking I want to grab $20k in bitcoin and maybe $10k in Eth.

$500-1000 purchases, usually. I have some bigger orders set at lower prices, but those may not go through.

[W1LLW]

So by May 2025, I see BTC at 90k.

Because he just watched this, kek: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at8sIAvJ0x4

idk, interesting pattern he's spotted.

that is depressing.

To piggyback on brbacquiring brah's sentiments, i don't find that depressing at all it's rather exciting actually. It's only depressing if you're expecting btc alone to change your life.

2017 peaked at 20k roughly, but when the next bull came in 2020, it approached that 20k mark and then just blasted through it with only a mild retrace at 35k, but by that time altcoin season was in full casino-mode. PolkaDOT pamped from $5 to $50 in that time frame. BNB went from $33 to $600 for fuks sake.

Truth be told, all you need to do is find one semi-decent project, with a halfway decent marketing team, that ACTUALLY delivers a product through a BTC runup and you can easily pull a 10X trade. A 100X just requires you to do a little degen digging, and parking your money a bit longer. Gotta have conviction though and weed through the noise. Now is a good time to be itt sharing project ideas and potential long term holds. When BTC returns to 60k again this place will go back to being chitcoin-topia.

[ProteinEnough]

To piggyback on brbacquiring brah's sentiments, i don't find that depressing at all it's rather exciting actually. It's only depressing if you're expecting btc alone to change your life.

2017 peaked at 20k roughly, but when the next bull came in 2020, it approached that 20k mark and then just blasted through it with only a mild retrace at 35k, but by that time altcoin season was in full casino-mode. PolkaDOT pamped from $5 to $50 in that time frame. BNB went from $33 to $600 for fuks sake.

Truth be told, all you need to do is find one semi-decent project, with a halfway decent marketing team, that ACTUALLY delivers a product through a BTC runup and you can easily pull a 10X trade. A 100X just requires you to do a little degen digging, and parking your money a bit longer. Gotta have conviction though and weed through the noise. Now is a good time to be itt sharing project ideas and potential long term holds. When BTC returns to 60k again this place will go back to being chitcoin-topia.

I agree 100%.

[brbacquiring]

To piggyback on brbacquiring brah's sentiments, i don't find that depressing at all it's rather exciting actually. It's only depressing if you're expecting btc alone to change your life.

2017 peaked at 20k roughly, but when the next bull came in 2020, it approached that 20k mark and then just blasted through it with only a mild retrace at 35k, but by that time altcoin season was in full casino-mode. PolkaDOT pamped from $5 to $50 in that time frame. BNB went from $33 to $600 for fuks sake.

Truth be told, all you need to do is find one semi-decent project, with a halfway decent marketing team, that ACTUALLY delivers a product through a BTC runup and you can easily pull a 10X trade. A 100X just requires you to do a little degen digging, and parking your money a bit longer. Gotta have conviction though and weed through the noise. Now is a good time to be itt sharing project ideas and potential long term holds. When BTC returns to 60k again this place will go back to being chitcoin-topia.

legit

[W1LLW]

Misc Crypto Crew's eyes only.


Risk Metrics as of 9/20/22 in USD Risk by Ben Cowen. This was his old job to provide risk models for NASA before he left to go 100% into crypto. Now he makes risk models for the cryptoverse.

BTC - 0.182
ETH - 0.305
LINK - 0.192
ADA - 0.229
DOT - 0.091
BNB - 0.282
VET - 0.155
XRP - 0.074
ALGO - 0.215
MATIC - 0.123
ATOM - 0.260
AAVE - 0.032
LTC - 0.203
XLM - 0.144
XMR - 0.281


What is interesting is the DXY risk which is 0.913 (this is fukking high).

These numbers don't mean much without context. Risk of wut? Going to 0? Being exploited? Retaining wealth?

[ProteinEnough]

These numbers don't mean much without context. Risk of wut? Going to 0? Being exploited? Retaining wealth?

Risk metrics between 0.00 and 1.00 in USD terms of investing. The lower the risk metric value, the lower risk to invest. The higher to 1.00, it's very risky to invest. He basically applied what he did for NASA components on surviving extreme conditions based on charts, historical data, and mathematics.

[FrankCostanza]

To piggyback on brbacquiring brah's sentiments, i don't find that depressing at all it's rather exciting actually. It's only depressing if you're expecting btc alone to change your life.

2017 peaked at 20k roughly, but when the next bull came in 2020, it approached that 20k mark and then just blasted through it with only a mild retrace at 35k, but by that time altcoin season was in full casino-mode. PolkaDOT pamped from $5 to $50 in that time frame. BNB went from $33 to $600 for fuks sake.

Truth be told, all you need to do is find one semi-decent project, with a halfway decent marketing team, that ACTUALLY delivers a product through a BTC runup and you can easily pull a 10X trade. A 100X just requires you to do a little degen digging, and parking your money a bit longer. Gotta have conviction though and weed through the noise. Now is a good time to be itt sharing project ideas and potential long term holds. When BTC returns to 60k again this place will go back to being chitcoin-topia.

It doesn't take into account the pandemic. We had a wild drop to 3k because of it

[W1LLW]

It doesn't take into account the pandemic. We had a wild drop to 3k because of it

Speaking of drops. One of the things on my to-do list this bear market is researching some of the signals that were at play in the summer 2021 crash. That was absolutely insane, getting out at the top 10% of that drop and re-entering around the bottom 10% could have damn near doubled my stack but i lost a TON in this valley.





Touched 4k and 2k twice within a 6 month span. so much money could have been made.




Was just telling the boys in the discord that the ETH Short Tokens on kucoin are my new (not so safe) safe-haven hold. It's crypto. It's an exchange so "not your keys not your crypto" and all, but it basically prints money whenever the price of ETH drops. No expiration date to worry about like options. No risk of getting liquidated like on perpetuals. Literally just buy the short token and hold to your heart's content and brrrrrrrrrr all the way down to that sweet sweet ~750ish accumulation zone. I'll likely be buying directly into my fav alts at that point though. This bear has taught me so much.

[dankydank]

Tokens still have decay and rebalancing that can fuk you over. Don’t hold for to long.

[W1LLW]

Tokens still have decay and rebalancing that can fuk you over. Don’t hold for to long.

true true. i think they rebalance quite often daily/weekly depending on volatility? but i've been liking them for 4 to 6 week swings

[ProteinEnough]

Speaking of drops. One of the things on my to-do list this bear market is researching some of the signals that were at play in the summer 2021 crash. That was absolutely insane, getting out at the top 10% of that drop and re-entering around the bottom 10% could have damn near doubled my stack but i lost a TON in this valley.





Touched 4k and 2k twice within a 6 month span. so much money could have been made.




Was just telling the boys in the discord that the ETH Short Tokens on kucoin are my new (not so safe) safe-haven hold. It's crypto. It's an exchange so "not your keys not your crypto" and all, but it basically prints money whenever the price of ETH drops. No expiration date to worry about like options. No risk of getting liquidated like on perpetuals. Literally just buy the short token and hold to your heart's content and brrrrrrrrrr all the way down to that sweet sweet ~750ish accumulation zone. I'll likely be buying directly into my fav alts at that point though. This bear has taught me so much.

In April 2021 - May 2021, the risk indicators for BTC and ETH were > 0.90 which is basically telling you a "bubble pop" is imminent by flashing red. One thing to consider, Ben's formulas for his risk indicators were pretty damn accurate for this time period. He doesn't share his formulas since they're part of the premium subscription but I have an idea of what he uses. Again these are MCC's eyes only.

[W1LLW]

In April 2021 - May 2021, the risk indicators for BTC and ETH were > 0.90 which is basically telling you a "bubble pop" is imminent by flashing red. One thing to consider, Ben's formulas for his risk indicators were pretty damn accurate for this time period. He doesn't share his formulas since they're part of the premium subscription but I have an idea of what he uses. Again these are MCC's eyes only.

Is there a link to where anyone posted about this in april/may??

[ProteinEnough]

Is there a link to where anyone posted about this in april/may??

Unfortunately I didn't have access to Ben's premium until after the Summer dump or I would have warned MCC. I don't think anyone else has premium subscription, at least not to my knowledge since I haven't seen anyone else mention it.

[malashker]

Misc Crypto Crew's eyes only.


Risk Metrics as of 9/20/22 in USD Risk by Ben Cowen. This was his old job to provide risk models for NASA before he left to go 100% into crypto. Now he makes risk models for the cryptoverse.

BTC - 0.182
ETH - 0.305
LINK - 0.192
ADA - 0.229
DOT - 0.091
BNB - 0.282
VET - 0.155
XRP - 0.074
ALGO - 0.215
MATIC - 0.123
ATOM - 0.260
AAVE - 0.032
LTC - 0.203
XLM - 0.144
XMR - 0.281


What is interesting is the DXY risk which is 0.913 (this is fukking high).

Lol at xrp and xlm been a less risk than btc eth and bnb

[brbacquiring]

Was just telling the boys in the discord that the ETH Short Tokens on kucoin are my new (not so safe) safe-haven hold. It's crypto. It's an exchange so "not your keys not your crypto" and all, but it basically prints money whenever the price of ETH drops. No expiration date to worry about like options. No risk of getting liquidated like on perpetuals. Literally just buy the short token and hold to your heart's content and brrrrrrrrrr all the way down to that sweet sweet ~750ish accumulation zone. I'll likely be buying directly into my fav alts at that point though. This bear has taught me so much.

Saved.

[Bluku]

Just watched that Crypto Crew Uni vid. Interesting, but just elmao at the fact that the guy has to preface a 90k usd by 2025 btc prediction with 'you're not gonna like it guys... it's gonna make you angry but it's based on data'. It really reflects how greedy and impatient the crypto community is, and why the majority of people make no gains. You're telling me I have 3-4 years to gain a 4.5x return on an avg cost basis of 20k? And on the coin that brings the least risk? The cheap dope lifestyle has truly people.

[ProteinEnough]

Lol at xrp and xlm been a less risk than btc eth and bnb

That's USD risk. On the BTC valuation risk on those coins, they are light red. There's also an ETH valuation risk on the coins and they are light red too.

That's why for now, I'm just DCA BTC only. Basically if BTC dumps to 10-13k, alts are going to get obliterated.

[ProteinEnough]

Nice scam pump over 20k back to 19k.

[ghostfacedup]

Nice scam pump over 20k back to 19k.

Whale manipulation. Nothing means anything until we form a higher low.

[JeffPesos]

Can the market just implode already. Standing here with a stack in hand and an erection waiting for my $1k ethereum and this market keeps horsing around.

[ProteinEnough]

Risk Metrics as of 9/27/22 in USD Risk by Ben Cowen. Closer to 0.000 is darker green. Closer to 1.000 is dark red (bubble imminent pop).

BTC - 0.189
ETH - 0.299
LINK - 0.237
ADA - 0.222
DOT - 0.093
BNB - 0.288
VET - 0.152
XRP - 0.092
ALGO - 0.226
MATIC - 0.117
ATOM - 0.236
AAVE - 0.040
LTC - 0.202
XLM - 0.135
XMR - 0.281

Keep in mind these are in USD risk. All but ADA, VET are light red in BTC and ETH valuation risk.


DXY 0.959 (deep dark red)

[lordpatrick]

We're probably bottomed. (locally)

Smart money moving out of USD to other assets.
Max fear and bearishness is priced in.

For reference, 7D time frame outflow of USDC is around 130M$
50M$ for USDT

Money going into BTC and ETH. Mostly Weth and saETH.


I still got some leftover positions looking to exit on the next bounce.

[ProteinEnough]

UK is starting QE again.