When do you think the crazy car market will settle down?

[Destor]

Hopefully prices do come down here but I wouldn't be shocked to see supply chain issues persisting and keeping supply low enough to offset whatever drop in demand we see

[R3L3NTL3SS]

I mean, something is changing. At least for the used market.

I used to see the local dealerships rolling through their used car inventory fast as all hell. They couldn't get quality used trucks and SUV's on the lot fast enough. Trucks and SUV's wouldn't make it 3-4 days before they were sold. I'm now seeing those same vehicles sit for weeks now without moving. Got the feeling a lot of dealerships are going to be in a bind sitting on vehicles that they paid more for than what will even be remotely close to their sale value pretty soon.

[Azzurri]

Just some anecdotal evidence but I've noticed dealers have WAY more new cars on their lots now, at least 50-75% more than last year; although, it's not as much as before but it's getting there.

[Midgetkiller]

2024 at the earliest

Not sure where everyone is getting such wrong info ITT

Retards sniffing hopium after looking at their shetty car.

I'll have to wait until 2023 for delivery of my i4, people ordering one now are almost looking at 2024. All because of shortages.

[i3oosted]

Markets about to take a huge dump, car market will follow I assume.

[ymer]

Retards sniffing hopium after looking at their shetty car.

I'll have to wait until 2023 for delivery of my i4, people ordering one now are almost looking at 2024. All because of shortages.

There will be a lot of cancelled orders when people realize that **** has hit the fan.

[RobParks2M]

I mean, something is changing. At least for the used market.

I used to see the local dealerships rolling through their used car inventory fast as all hell. They couldn't get quality used trucks and SUV's on the lot fast enough. Trucks and SUV's wouldn't make it 3-4 days before they were sold. I'm now seeing those same vehicles sit for weeks now without moving. Got the feeling a lot of dealerships are going to be in a bind sitting on vehicles that they paid more for than what will even be remotely close to their sale value pretty soon.

interest rates jumping will slow both housing and auto markets. Hopefully dealers saved enough coin jumping prices before the cost to repurchase hit them. Now they'll start having to take a wash on vehicles they paid the premium for and can't move quick enough. Usually they turn over inventory within a few weeks to perhaps a month so shouldn't be catastrophic for them. Manufacturers themselves seem to have plenty of orders to fulfill still AND most car rental services are going to need to get their inventories in check so still a base level of buy interest.

[10w30]

interest rates jumping will slow both housing and auto markets. Hopefully dealers saved enough coin jumping prices before the cost to repurchase hit them. Now they'll start having to take a wash on vehicles they paid the premium for and can't move quick enough. Usually they turn over inventory within a few weeks to perhaps a month so shouldn't be catastrophic for them. Manufacturers themselves seem to have plenty of orders to fulfill still AND most car rental services are going to need to get their inventories in check so still a base level of buy interest.

Carvana terminated 2500 employees nationwide four days ago and purchased a 2.2 billion dollar automotive auction business.

Not sure the angle of attack here, but it's possible Carvana is anticipating that loads of cars and trucks will be liquidated at auction.

[RobParks2M]

I think used dealers typically get a lot of vehicles from auctions. Probably just vertical integration imo.

layoffs coming because no one wants to spend money on growth when money is tight. Cheap money forces companies to target growth and market share. No growth promotes cost savings and maintaining market share instead.

[10w30]

Agree,

If sales volume slows down with the interest rates rising, auto dealers will have no choice but to cut business costs to save, or lower prices on cars and trucks to keep sales volume up.

I think if an interest rate hike takes place again in June it should start to give buyers an advantage over the auto dealers.

Most of it is price gouging.

GM, Ford issue warning to car dealers to not inflate prices:

[hoop84]

Just lmao. Subaru wanted 600/mo on a wrx lease. Just lmao

[Midgetkiller]

There will be a lot of cancelled orders when people realize that **** has hit the fan.

Large corporations are balls deep in company cars and an almost literal battle to keep the talented people on board. In my business a premium company car is standard. Don't come @ me without one. I have job offers coming out of my ass 24/7 and this won't change for at least 10 years because there simply aren't enough people out there to fill the slots.

The amount of money owed for cancelling the orders would also be immense. Not only that, but my car has actually gone up in value 25% since I have ordered it. So why would I cancel my order? Why would ANYONE cancel their order? The market would need to drop insanely hard and to do that demand would have to slow down immensely. But it simply wont, not right now. I see big companies ordering hundreds of cars atm, sometimes even before allocating that car to an employee. They just want the order in place because they expect prices to go up even more.

Also the people who are going to actually get fukked for real by high fuel/energy prices and inflation are not the people buying new premium cars.

Car companies have guaranteed sales for two years. All of their production slots are filled and they have begun to stuff 2024 now as well. Things aren't going to get cheap soon. Thinking the car market will take a dump soon is based purely on hope. The only solution would be massively increased production capacity at this point so they can deliver faster and stay ahead of rising costs because they are getting fukked in the ass for delivering cars in 2023 for a 2021 price with inflation reaching almost 10%. But... Materials have SOARED in price and we keep requiring more and more of them across the globe. So even then... New cars keep getting immensely more expensive for the time being. The dealer upmarks will diminish but the rising price of the actual car itself will replace that anyway.

If you like cars or if you're stuck in a low income situation you are going to fukking hate the near future.

[jamalfudge]

I think it's slowing down in my area a bit. I sell insurance and have a pretty decent guage on peoples' habits. Late 2020 into mid 2021 seemed like everybody was buying all the new/used cars they were putting off for the previous several months and was pretty crazy. I had been looking into used cars/SUV as an eventual replacement for my daily and sht was way overpriced. Since then, people seem to have resumed normal habits as far as I've noticed. But something didn't hit me until recently. I've narrowed my own search for a specific Maverick and haven't really noticed the used car market. Was through the local Ford dealership recently but didn't really pay attention to any specific vehicle. Turns out they only have 8 "new" vehicles on the lot (including some 21s that didn't sell last year) and the rest are all used, and overpriced. The thing is they AREN'T selling like you'd expect.

I don't know what the strategy is here, do they know the availability of new cars is/will be slim? Or are they holding on to the belief that the used car market will continue to go crazy and not adjust until they really have to?

[10w30]

I think it's slowing down in my area a bit. I sell insurance and have a pretty decent guage on peoples' habits. Late 2020 into mid 2021 seemed like everybody was buying all the new/used cars they were putting off for the previous several months and was pretty crazy. I had been looking into used cars/SUV as an eventual replacement for my daily and sht was way overpriced. Since then, people seem to have resumed normal habits as far as I've noticed. But something didn't hit me until recently. I've narrowed my own search for a specific Maverick and haven't really noticed the used car market. Was through the local Ford dealership recently but didn't really pay attention to any specific vehicle. Turns out they only have 8 "new" vehicles on the lot (including some 21s that didn't sell last year) and the rest are all used, and overpriced. The thing is they AREN'T selling like you'd expect.

I don't know what the strategy is here, do they know the availability of new cars is/will be slim? Or are they holding on to the belief that the used car market will continue to go crazy and not adjust until they really have to?

It is slowing down. Some areas more than others.

All of those used and overpriced vehicles including those new 2021 vehicles that never sold sitting on the dealership lot will eventually have to be priced to sell.

[ymer]

Large corporations are balls deep in company cars and an almost literal battle to keep the talented people on board. In my business a premium company car is standard. Don't come @ me without one. I have job offers coming out of my ass 24/7 and this won't change for at least 10 years because there simply aren't enough people out there to fill the slots.

The amount of money owed for cancelling the orders would also be immense. Not only that, but my car has actually gone up in value 25% since I have ordered it. So why would I cancel my order? Why would ANYONE cancel their order? The market would need to drop insanely hard and to do that demand would have to slow down immensely. But it simply wont, not right now. I see big companies ordering hundreds of cars atm, sometimes even before allocating that car to an employee. They just want the order in place because they expect prices to go up even more.

Also the people who are going to actually get fukked for real by high fuel/energy prices and inflation are not the people buying new premium cars.

Car companies have guaranteed sales for two years. All of their production slots are filled and they have begun to stuff 2024 now as well. Things aren't going to get cheap soon. Thinking the car market will take a dump soon is based purely on hope. The only solution would be massively increased production capacity at this point so they can deliver faster and stay ahead of rising costs because they are getting fukked in the ass for delivering cars in 2023 for a 2021 price with inflation reaching almost 10%. But... Materials have SOARED in price and we keep requiring more and more of them across the globe. So even then... New cars keep getting immensely more expensive for the time being. The dealer upmarks will diminish but the rising price of the actual car itself will replace that anyway.

If you like cars or if you're stuck in a low income situation you are going to fukking hate the near future.

Bumping this post in 4 months.

[greenleaf]

Keep dreaming for cheaper cars...



Electronics are set to get even more expensive as chip giants hike their prices

Despite an intensifying cost of living crisis, companies that integrate chips into their products may have to start passing on costs to consumers.

“Increased prices for chips will add stress to all of the downstream customers who will either need to pass on these price increases to their customers, which will be tough in the current environment, or accept lower profitability,” Hanbury said.

O’Donnell said that he expects PCs, cars, toys, consumer electronics, appliances, and many other products to get more expensive.

“Margins are already tight on such products, so they have no choice but to raise prices,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/elec...ke-prices.html

[Exiled93]

I occasionally browse cars to downgrade from my f150 but can't find chit.

brb want 30k for a new camry or 15k for a 20 year old one with 200k miles.

guess ill stick to my truck. which is fine but i would like something that can still go offroad/4wd but a bit smaller like a subaru or something.

[greenleaf]

Memorial Day weekend car shopping is looking ‘pretty bleak.’ Here’s what to expect

The average incentive offered by dealers has dropped to an all-time low of $1,034, according to a joint estimate from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

The average per-car profit at dealerships is $5,046 — up from $2,733 a year ago — which is offsetting a slower sales pace.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/memo...ty-bleak-.html

[greenleaf]

Multiple big interest rate hikes and subsequent recession should do it this time for real.

[Destor]

Multiple big interest rate hikes and subsequent recession should do it this time for real.

As Tesla raises prices the next day

[greenleaf]

As Tesla raises prices the next day

He can raise prices to the moon but demand will come down for sure.

[Destor]

He can raise prices to the moon but demand will come down for sure.

The real question is what supply is doing relative to demand, the price increases coincided with some existing orders pushing out six weeks

Using Tesla as a proxy for the broader car market, I think this suggests bad things

[10w30]

The real question is what supply is doing relative to demand, the price increases coincided with some existing orders pushing out six weeks

Using Tesla as a proxy for the broader car market, I think this suggests bad things

Under pressure to produce might push them to resolve the chip shortage, inventory supply, and demand issues.

It's going to be sink or swim for a bunch of companies if they don't figure it out soon.

[MikeLowrrrey]

I'm looking at used Scat Pack Challengers. 2016s all going for $40k. ridiculous. Newer going for even more.

With that said, I have all the time in the world. Worst case scenario I'll buy another beater car cash.

[frankdtank20]

Inventory of new vehicles is touching record lows, but I think demand overall is about to hit a record low as well. We have two sitters for our kids. One who works at a dealership is spending a while lot more time at home lately and has to sell his own diesel truck.

Other sitter's husband is a mechanic and busier than he can handle. His problem is finding enough time from work to do repairs for people at home, on the side. There's a consistent rotation in their driveway. Dude is gonna be crazy busy for at least another year, as people keep getting repairs instead of buying.

[MikeLowrrrey]

Keep dreaming for cheaper cars...



Electronics are set to get even more expensive as chip giants hike their prices

Despite an intensifying cost of living crisis, companies that integrate chips into their products may have to start passing on costs to consumers.

“Increased prices for chips will add stress to all of the downstream customers who will either need to pass on these price increases to their customers, which will be tough in the current environment, or accept lower profitability,” Hanbury said.

O’Donnell said that he expects PCs, cars, toys, consumer electronics, appliances, and many other products to get more expensive.

“Margins are already tight on such products, so they have no choice but to raise prices,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/elec...ke-prices.html

Are people making more than enough and willing to pay $10k msrp more on a new car? How many can afford and are willing to pay $600 and $700 notes for 5 years? The cost of everything is up, Houses, rent, food, insurance. Better off keeping that beater unless you're very desperate.

[jamalfudge]

Inventory of new vehicles is touching record lows, but I think demand overall is about to hit a record low as well. We have two sitters for our kids. One who works at a dealership is spending a while lot more time at home lately and has to sell his own diesel truck.

Other sitter's husband is a mechanic and busier than he can handle. His problem is finding enough time from work to do repairs for people at home, on the side. There's a consistent rotation in their driveway. Dude is gonna be crazy busy for at least another year, as people keep getting repairs instead of buying.

I might've posted ITT that I was looking for a Maverick. Don't think that's gonna happen this year. Got a flyer from a dealership we've bought a car from in the past offering $2k over Blue Book for trades...got me thinking I'd go in another direction. Went to the lot after they closed Saturday and it was pretty empty. I can see why they want used cars.

Citing pretty much all the reasons mentioned ITT has me considering a different route for a car, or just holding out until I ride the wheels off mine.

[Destor]

I was also looking at a Maverick earlier this year but they were all sold out until 2023 at least

[HtotheOV]

they aren’t coming down until supply chain improves and inflation.

that being said, dealers in the past had kept tons of inventory on the lot. you use to be able to walk into a Honda dealership on any given Saturday and walk out that day with a brand new Accord/Civic not a dime above msrp. now, you have potatoes who are willing to order a new Civic Sport at $35K plus wait 6+ months for one. Until people stop paying ridiculous prices and/or willing to wait months for a car, nothing will come back to reality. for **** sakes, I did a used car search and used Type R are going for 55K, have heard stories of Broncos going for 90K, etc. Dealers are winning this game by far. They now have realized there is absolutely zero reason to have high inventory sitting on the lot.

[greenleaf]

they aren’t coming down until supply chain improves and inflation.

World’s largest truck maker says it’s facing enormous supply chain pressure

Supply chain disruptions are still rippling across the globe, and the head of the world’s largest truck maker has warned that parts shortages are slowing the production of thousands of its vehicles.

Daimler Truck CEO Martin Daum told CNBC on Wednesday that the current supply chain squeeze is among the worst he’s seen in his more than 25-year career, resulting in major bottlenecks across the company’s suite of brands.

“We are facing enormous pressure on the supply chain,” said Daum, whose trucks are used for other vital industries such as logistics and construction.

“I would say it’s one of the worst years ever in my long career in trucking, where we sometimes have to touch a truck three, four times to add the missing parts,” he added.

The Mercedes-Benz Truck maker said earlier this month that there were signs that a prolonged chip shortage appeared to be easing. Microchips, or semiconductors, are a critical component of modern auto manufacturing, and they fell into short supply during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic and resultant factory closures.

But Daum said that shortages of other parts are also continuing to slow the production of thousands of trucks across its international network of factories.

“We have, in a couple of factories, more than 10,000 trucks where one or two parts are missing and we desperately search the world for those parts,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/22/daim...-pressure.html