Housing market crash?

[moletissue]

Dear misc finance bros, I'm just a brokecel saving cash for a house down payment. Is there a projected housing market crash on the horizon where I can potentially get a better deal on a house if I continue to wait out this market? The housing market in Houston is insane right now and there's no way I'm going to try and compete at these prices. Hoping to wait it out for another 2 years or so. Thoughts?

[darkeminence]

Even if there is a crash, it will take a decade to unfold. Real estate is not like stocks where the crash is immediately visible in the charts. Real estate crashes are mostly protracted over a long period of time due to their illiquidity. There's a lot of red tape involved in selling and buying real estate. So you can't exactly time it.

So if you wanna buy a house for the long haul, you're better off just buying at any given moment. As long as you can pay the mortgage and you've got job security, who cares that your house price goes down? And that's if you wanna live there for the rest of your life of course. The story changes if you lose your job or you have to sell because of some unforseen reason. I'd calculate those risks into the price you wanna pay for your house. You'd ideally take on a mortgage you can handle comfortably on your wage and not get screwed by it if $hit goes sideways and you have to sell in a down market.

And if the area is too expensive if you, gtfo of there and go somewhere cheaper.

[mulletwarrior]

Unfortunately no one can really predict a housing market crash (if they did, they would stop buying and prices wouldn't be insane). The current rise in prices is due to low inventory, high construction prices and low rates / loose lending policies (unlike the 2008 crash which was kinda just due to loose lending policies), so it is a pretty complicated set of factors to analyze to determine whether there is an impending crash. With that said, I personally wouldn't buy right now in the area I currently live, as I am hoping the inventory issue will fix itself in the next couple of years.

Also with that said, I used to live in Houston and the prices there are pretty effing cheap compared to everywhere else in the country. Are you tryna buy in the burbs or in the loop?

[Cartiac]

Hard to say but with the markets doing extremely well and the economy looking very healthy coming out of COVID I don't know if there is any real basis for a major downturn. That being said there is still a hold on foreclosure and evictions through June 30 so that is probably contributing to the low inventory, sellers market right now so it may ease up a bit in a few months.

[moletissue]

Are you tryna buy in the burbs or in the loop?

I haven't started looking yet due to not being quite where I want to be on my down payment+ the insane housing market. Ideally in the loop in a recently gentrified neighborhood.

[RobParks2M]

Good luck fam. I thought housing market was super overheated when my wife twisted my arm and we bought a house 2 years ago. Now similar houses are going for $60-80k more than we paid and I've got a fair bit of equity in the home. It's weird mang. The 2008 collapse was brought on by an extreme liquidity crisis where absolutely no one had money. Now however we have legitimately the opposite problem where the government is shoveling money anywhere and everywhere and no one knows what to do with it other than inflate asset prices.

[BulkingIsHard]

the markets doing extremely well and the economy looking very healthy coming out of COVID

The current rise in prices is due to low inventory, high construction prices and low rates / loose lending policies (unlike the 2008 crash which was kinda just due to loose lending policies)

Lmao these guys can't be ****ing serious

[xxAchillesxx]

This ain't 2008. People are bidding on properties paying full cash. I wouldn't count on it any time soon.

[mulletwarrior]

I haven't started looking yet due to not being quite where I want to be on my down payment+ the insane housing market. Ideally in the loop in a recently gentrified neighborhood.

Yeah the loop is crazy. But once you get outside the loop prices cut in half (srs).

[lolatpaniccels]

its insane how many cash offers come on 1-2M homes in my area, legit insane. No idea where all this money is coming from when were still in a recession.

[LFAesthetics]

I am in the market, and i've put like 5 offers in, with lots of waived contingencies and a rather large cash down payment, and i'm still losin to straight cash deals left and right, it's almost like if you need a mortgage your ****ed in this market. I'm about to hunker down again for a year and keep on stacking cash because even at my financial limits i'm still losing out on standard starter home **** that's going for 500k+