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  1. #1
    No Agony, No Bragony JUSA's Avatar
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    April 2021: What is the mortality rate of Covid?

    Somewhere else I was banding around the percentage I thought it was, which is 0.15%, and I see a lot of people hovering around that level. I saw this somewhere, I want to say the CDC.

    However, I was called out for it and I went to go re-find the numbers and it wasn't very easy. The person in question came up with their own number based on the known deaths and the known number of cases. It was something like 1.5%, which is like x10 more than what I was saying... and while I am almost entirely positive they are wrong, I wasn't able to re-find anything to refute it.

    So, if I am wrong here, that would be good to know.

    What are the official figures here? And, I don't particularly want to debate whether covid death figures were inflated or how gumming up old folks homes with the infected caused a lot of deaths and whatnot. I'm sure that's all true to some degree but I'm just looking at whatever the 'official' figures really are.
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    Cthulhu fhtagn GreatOldOne's Avatar
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    I believe you are referencing the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) released by the CDC as part of the planning for outbreak scenarios. Interestingly, they have since augmented their data to NOT include the specific % you are referencing, now it appears as such:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

    Now, you can simply do the math and obtain the %, but funny they don't anymore.

    Here's the IFR data as it was originally posted, indicating that the %s were originally there, but has been since been "updated", now not included:

    https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...020-03-31.html

    *Refer to Table 1: Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio (%)
    Last edited by Midi77; 04-12-2021 at 10:25 AM.
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    https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

    You can get the case/fatality ratio for each age group with that data. The CDC also has a chart for weekly cases/deaths (to see if it is less deadly now rather than looking at the data for the past year but you'd have to work the numbers yourself).
    Last edited by denrocks1; 04-12-2021 at 10:24 AM.
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    No Agony, No Bragony JUSA's Avatar
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    Looks like 1.8% of people who have gotten it have died but very skewed in that these older people (who make less than 3% of overall cases) represent a huge chunk of the overall deaths.

    Thanks, I was touting some wrong numbers, won't do that here on out -- but it sure does look like anyone under 50 has very little to worry about, barring some illness or issue. Less than 20,000 of the overall deaths come from people who are younger than 50.

    Maybe a math guy can double check me on this (please, no wincel-style buffoons)

    Age//Mortality%
    0-4 is 0.023%
    5-17 is 0.011%
    18 to 29 is 0.039%
    30 to 39 is 0.125%
    40 to 49 is 0.34%
    50 to 64 is 1.26%
    65 to 74 is 4.94%
    75 to 84 is 12.29%
    85+ is 24.52%

    ... So, I was well off with my overall idea that the death rate is 0.15%, I won't say that again -- it's just that when you lay it out like this, the elderly are way way way more at risk than people under really 50.

    Why is everyone locking down, again? Why not just people over 50?
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    No Agony, No Bragony JUSA's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by denrocks1 View Post
    You can get the case/fatality ratio for each age group with that data. The CDC also has a chart for weekly cases/deaths (to see if it is less deadly now rather than looking at the data for the past year but you'd have to work the numbers yourself).
    Thanks, I would rep you for this but I think I recently negged you because you fed a troll. Sorry man, not personal, just tired of people who give attention to these bottom feeding clowns. I'll try and get you here in a couple or three weeks on recharge, those graphs were exactly what I was looking for.
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    Any democrat will gladly tell you covid is the most lethal virus in history and if you think otherwise you’re stupid so mask up and stay indoors.
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    Registered User denrocks1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by JUSA View Post
    Thanks, I would rep you for this but I think I recently negged you because you fed a troll. Sorry man, not personal, just tired of people who give attention to these bottom feeding clowns. I'll try and get you here in a couple or three weeks on recharge, those graphs were exactly what I was looking for.
    Yeah, no worries. I didn't even notice/pay attention to the comment and negged back lol but I'll get you on recharge
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  9. #9
    Registered User Midi77's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by JUSA View Post
    Looks like 1.8% of people who have gotten it have died but very skewed in that these older people (who make less than 3% of overall cases) represent a huge chunk of the overall deaths.

    Thanks, I was touting some wrong numbers, won't do that here on out -- but it sure does look like anyone under 50 has very little to worry about, barring some illness or issue. Less than 20,000 of the overall deaths come from people who are younger than 50.

    Maybe a math guy can double check me on this (please, no wincel-style buffoons)

    Age//Mortality%
    0-4 is 0.023%
    5-17 is 0.011%
    18 to 29 is 0.039%
    30 to 39 is 0.125%
    40 to 49 is 0.34%
    50 to 64 is 1.26%
    65 to 74 is 4.94%
    75 to 84 is 12.29%
    85+ is 24.52%

    ... So, I was well off with my overall idea that the death rate is 0.15%, I won't say that again -- it's just that when you lay it out like this, the elderly are way way way more at risk than people under really 50.

    Why is everyone locking down, again? Why not just people over 50?
    No, use the CDC IFR data, not simply a case count. The case count doesn't account for asymptomatic infections and transmission patterns so the death rate is inflated.

    Per this link:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

    Per 1,000,000 infections:

    0-17 Years: 20 cases will end fatally
    18-49 Years: 500 cases will end fatally
    50-64 Years: 6,000 cases will end fatally
    65+: 90,000 cases will end fatally

    In terms of %, they are:

    0-17 Years: .0002%
    18-49 Years: .05%
    50-64 Years: .6%
    65+: 9%

    Essentially, ALL the death is occurring 65+, statistically speaking.
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    The mortality numbers are ultimately an estimate and usually get sorted out years after the pandemic is over. In today's world it's easier to get data and piece it together faster, however it's still not that simple. A lot of people had COVID-19 and were never tested, so you have to estimate that number. Then you have COVID-19 deaths early on where they died but weren't tested and reported. You also have to figure it out based on geographic areas too. Some countries will usually have higher/lower rates based on conditions, medical treatment, etc. If you catch measles in the USA the fatality rate is about 0.1% but in some third world countries it can be 10X that.
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    Registered User frankdtank20's Avatar
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    Wish I had bookmarked links from last year. It's shameful that tards both in this thread and on social media think case fatality is the same as infection fatality. The most agreed upon IFR for last spring, when doctors were fumbling their way through the first wave was 0.6 - 0.7%. Multiple reports came out by July though that the rate of hospitalized patients (most of the dead) had fallen by 2/3rds. The overuse of respirators killed many thousands last spring and early summer. The 2/3rds reduction was before the use of corticosteroids became standard for moderate to severe cases, which was reported to save another 25% of that group.

    We know the case fatality is 1.8%, and per different estimations by the CDC the number of infections had been 5-8x higher than confirmed cases in 2020. So roughly 0.225 - 0.36% infection fatality rate for all Americans in 2020. But that includes the much higher rate of the first wave averaged in.

    So there are multiple ways to deduce that for all ages the IFR after last summer has been 0.2- 0.3%.......before vaccines.


    The figure I heard doctors cite for people under 65 yrs old was .05% or 1 in 2000, but 5%+ if over 65 yrs old. Most but not all of the 65 and older have been vaccinated. They were 80% of deaths before vaccines, which are virtually 100% protective against Covid death. So now the fatality rate in the US is less than seasonal flu.
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  12. #12
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    Op, just triple mask with 2 face shields. Idk why this is so difficult.
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    I'd say it's whatever the flu mortality statistics are. Interestingly, we only had like a dozen flu cases last year so idk.
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    Originally Posted by DeshaunWatson View Post
    Op, just triple mask with 2 face shields. Idk why this is so difficult.

    lmao i have seen that , it's completely absurd
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    I thought and hope this is a positive development that can bring about even lower mortality rates, along with lower the fear levels, for the COVID virus.

    "Antibody injection dramatically reduces risk of coronavirus illness, Regeneron says"

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...regeneron-says

    excerpt:

    Regeneron Pharmaceuticals will request federal approval to use its antibody treatment as a preventative measure after researchers found it significantly reduced the risk that healthy trial volunteers exposed to COVID-19 would develop the disease.

    "These antibodies may be particularly useful in individuals who are not yet vaccinated, and may also have potential in those who are immunosuppressed and may not respond well to vaccines," said Dr. Dan Barouch, co-principal investigator of the Regeneron trial.

    Researchers determined that the treatment, consisting of four injections, reduced the risk that volunteers exposed to COVID-19 would develop the disease by 81%.

    Regeneron is seeking to expand its use authorization to be used as a preventative measure for people who have been exposed to the coronavirus.

    'A CLOSELY HELD SECRET': HIGHLY PROMISING COVID-19 TREATMENT HASN'T GAINED WIDESPREAD USE

    Monoclonal antibody therapies have been shown to considerably reduce the risk of severe disease and death due to COVID-19 by using lab-made proteins that the body produces to defend itself against infection. The Food and Drug Administration authorized antibody treatments from Regeneron and Eli Lilly in February for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults and children as young as 12 who are at high risk of getting seriously ill. Some high-profile patients, such as former President Donald Trump and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, got it much earlier. Yet, the therapy is still not in widespread use in the U.S.....
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    Originally Posted by celphone View Post
    The reason ppl are locking down is mainly because it is difficult to sequester the elderly. I am impressed by your ability to be reasonable in light of the data though. You show promise.

    Anyway, if you are curious about the most scientific voices that might be in line with what you are saying, I'd suggest looking at Martin Kulldorff or Jay Bhattacharya. That being said, their views are mostly rejected as fringe and impractical by many other epidemiologists. However, these are established researchers who should be taken seriously.

    Whether the lockdowns work or not is a matter of debate. The evidence is sketch. It is my opinion that strict ones China style work quite well. However, the kind we had in the US was probably only marginally helpful. I think maybe we could have done things a bit differently with enough testing and if we had a better way to offer targeted protection to the elderly. But we didn't, sadly.

    For almost everyone who posts here, covid is of minimal risk to you in terms of death. There may be some lung scarring or other complications, but you almost certainly won't die. The measures were taken to prevent hospitals from being overrun, which would then lead to reduced ability to treat preventable deaths.
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    Originally Posted by JUSA View Post
    Somewhere else I was banding around the percentage I thought it was, which is 0.15%, and I see a lot of people hovering around that level. I saw this somewhere, I want to say the CDC.

    However, I was called out for it and I went to go re-find the numbers and it wasn't very easy. The person in question came up with their own number based on the known deaths and the known number of cases. It was something like 1.5%, which is like x10 more than what I was saying... and while I am almost entirely positive they are wrong, I wasn't able to re-find anything to refute it.

    So, if I am wrong here, that would be good to know.

    What are the official figures here? And, I don't particularly want to debate whether covid death figures were inflated or how gumming up old folks homes with the infected caused a lot of deaths and whatnot. I'm sure that's all true to some degree but I'm just looking at whatever the 'official' figures really are.
    I tried to find some firm numbers a few weeks ago. It was suspicious how hard it was to get straight-forward answers anywhere I looked. Each set of numbers was geared to answer a slightly different question than, "What are the mortality rates of the CCP virus in the USA for people with no co-morbidities, by age?"
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    In high income countries it's generally in the 0.5-1.0% range based on serosurveys that estimate total numbers of infections.

    In low income countries where average age is much lower, it's generally lower than that.

    So in the west, it's around 5-10x as deadly as an average winter flu and around 2-3x as transmissible, roughly.

    Note we are specifically talking about the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) here- the proportion of total infections that result in death. Mortality rate is the number of deaths as a proportional of total population, which is a different metric.
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    We know where things were. See several of posts above.

    How about right now? With so many elderly vaccinated and people ages 55-64 vaccinated, in another 2 weeks 80-90% of the remaining potential deaths have been removed from the risk pool. So the longstanding prior 0.2 -0.3% infection fatality rate is then 80-90% lower, aka a fraction of seasonal flu.

    It's why most media are shifting to after effects of Covid as their attention grabbers. Expect more and more of that focus from here on out. People had the same or worse after effects after H1N1 in 2009 and occasionally do from regular seasonal flu. Those are a good reason for adults without a lot of wrinkles to get the Johnson & Johnson or Astra Zeneca shot.
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    The trouble with any figures you find, you can not ascertain who died with the Wu-Flu and who died because of Wu-Flu.


    A 63 yo with lung cancer is plant food if he/she becomes infected with the virus. Is that a with or a because of infection???


    Certainly, it was classified as Wu-Flu death.
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