**Un-OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XIII -- Robber Baron Edition

[smashedurgfx10]

Yea, that's a big one. I have thresholds for when I take profit nowadays, I've adopted the mindset that there's always more money to be made, so lock in profits as frequently as possible. Better to make a small amount of money than nothing at all. No regrets at all leaving $ on the table

what threshold do you set yourself

[meep316]

Got absolutely raped the last two days but holding. For all my XMET brahs just remember up or down, nothing matters until reverse merger time. If you sell before that you’re a potato.

[MinisterOfLust]

Any of you believe by the end of the year that your portfolio will be around or close to a million?

[Heaney]

Any of you believe by the end of the year that your portfolio will be around or close to a million?

If we're talking Rupes, maybe

[Destor]

I think we’ll see deflation as money leaves the market when the world opens up, QE ceases, and people have things to spend their cash on again

Or this plays out exactly like the 1918 Spanish Flu: pandemic hits, roaring 20s and market insanity ensues, and it continues until an equally insane crash similar to the one in 1929. The conditions are eerily similar, it’ll just be the roaring 2020s instead of the roaring 1920s

[BroncManiac]

For better or worse, I think this is the future of trading. Institution and old schoolers probably hate it, but gone are the days when people are happy with 5-10% annual returns. There’s too much free and instantaneous information (no longer have to subscribe to WSJ or other financial periodicals) available for everyone. With commission free trading and stocks being more accessible to the average person, more and more will get into stocks, and allow for more people to make decent money trading. Might not be able to quit your job, but it can sure supplement a steady income.

Look how social media, which isn’t going away, has infiltrated our lives. This is a similar movement. Either adapt and try to take advantage or stick to your 5-10% returns. I think it’s great and will allow more people opportunities to better their lives. Of course, there will still be those who FOMO and get left holding bags.

[topperstyle]

If we're talking Rupes, maybe

Pesos

[MinisterOfLust]

If we're talking Rupes, maybe

Lol, you are the spac king .

[Destor]

For better or worse, I think this is the future of trading. Institution and old schoolers probably hate it, but gone are the days when people are happy with 5-10% annual returns. There’s too much free and instantaneous information (no longer have to subscribe to WSJ or other financial periodicals) available for everyone. With commission free trading and stocks being more accessible to the average person, more and more will get into stocks, and allow for more people to make decent money trading. Might not be able to quit your job, but it can sure supplement a steady income.

Look how social media, which isn’t going away, has infiltrated our lives. This is a similar movement. Either adapt and try to take advantage or stick to your 5-10% returns. I think it’s great and will allow more people opportunities to better their lives. Of course, there will still be those who FOMO and get left holding bags.

Honestly think this is just the inclination to feel like something is totally novel and unique. None of this is new, and the old schoolers would probably rattle off a story about some almost-identical event that happened in Sumeria 5000 years ago. We can easily draw similarities between current events and what happened after WWI / the 1918 flu pandemic: asset prices blew up with low interest rates and the stonk markets entered a speculative craze. Record numbers of new investors flooded in and that craziness ramped up until the Great Crash in 1929, which wiped out the markets and turned off that new generation of investors.


The more likely reality is that everything is cyclical and this is merely another ring around the rosie

[topperstyle]

Will the acceleration of novice retail investors entering the market vis a vis online casinos such as Robinhood, etc cause a catastrophic panic-sell type correction in 2021?

[_zman]

The more likely reality is that everything is cyclical and this is merely another ring around the rosie

Everything is cyclical. We're overdue for another recession. QE can only prolong the inevitable so long.

One of my sister's is day trading, knows nothing about stocks, banking, finance etc. I don't have the heart to tell her you have to pay capital gains on the earnings...but i'm not sure how Robin Hood handles that or if they even give you the tax forms...

Will the acceleration of novice retail investors entering the market vis a vis online casinos such as Robinhood, etc cause a catastrophic panic-sell type correction in 2021?

Yeah, when it happens, it should be worse than the past bears. I'm sure it'll set off a slew of circuit breakers. The thing is, I don't know how much % wise what the new retail investors have in the market vs what institutions have and retirement accounts. But it's more money than ever before, I'd imagine. Due to their liquidity, panic selling will happen much easier.

[Destor]

Will the acceleration of novice retail investors entering the market vis a vis online casinos such as Robinhood, etc cause a catastrophic panic-sell type correction in 2021?

It seems conceivable, especially when things open up again and people start looking at their stonk gains as a post-pandemic outlet for pent up consumerism

Vacations, new vehicle purchases, other toys, dining out and partying... I’d expect an absolutely massive surge when we can just barely start to see COVID in our rear view mirrors. We’ll go from minimal spending in these areas to overwhelming demand in very short order.

[Lefticle]

Yeah, when it happens, it should be worse than the past bears. I'm sure it'll set off a slew of circuit breakers. The thing is, I don't know how much % wise what the new retail investors have in the market vs what institutions have and retirement accounts. But it's more money than ever before, I'd imagine. Due to their liquidity, panic selling will happen much easier.

Can’t wait. Have another $80k cash ready to drop.

[Bingo559]

Just put $1.5K in Fundrise. Gonna see if it will outperform my REIT portfolio.

[Steavie]

Will the acceleration of novice retail investors entering the market vis a vis online casinos such as Robinhood, etc cause a catastrophic panic-sell type correction in 2021?

I mean GME guys are still holding their bags

[MisterInfinity]

I for one, cant wait for a huge crash, so I can invest big on the market.

[TugOfPeace]

The nice thing about SPACs is that if you invest near NAV, even during a huge crash you're barely losing anything since there's a ~$10 floor

[topperstyle]

Everything is cyclical. We're overdue for another recession. QE can only prolong the inevitable so long.

One of my sister's is day trading, knows nothing about stocks, banking, finance etc. I don't have the heart to tell her you have to pay capital gains on the earnings...but i'm not sure how Robin Hood handles that or if they even give you the tax forms...



Yeah, when it happens, it should be worse than the past bears. I'm sure it'll set off a slew of circuit breakers. The thing is, I don't know how much % wise what the new retail investors have in the market vs what institutions have and retirement accounts. But it's more money than ever before, I'd imagine. Due to their liquidity, panic selling will happen much easier.

The problem with the more recent retail investors is many have only seen stonks go up, so when a correction comes it can be exacerbating by emotional trades that just generate more downward momentum.

Let’s be honest, tons of novice investors are holding big money in Tesla, and other memes. Once you break the seal on a genuine bearish move it could have (as carbon has mentioned many times) market wide implications.

[topperstyle]

I mean GME guys are still holding their bags

Big difference in collective austist and literal bartenders with Robinhood apps

[MediocreGains]

I mean GME guys are still holding their bags

This. If anything, retail with little experience is more likely to bag hold. Someone has to when the institutional investors sell.

The velocity of the crash last year probably had a lot more to do with algos dumping than retail panic selling.

[Heaney]

Lol, you are the spac king .

Not even close.

[KingSWRV]

I mean GME guys are still holding their bags

I feel like a lot of those people came and lost and then quit the game.

They really need to dump at the dip and reset, even just for their psychological and emotional well being if they want to keep trading.

I wonder how many people just gave up after that.

[MinisterOfLust]

Just put $1.5K in Fundrise. Gonna see if it will outperform my REIT portfolio.

Is Fundrise legit?

[SillieBazzillie]

As an old dude I don't think there's ever been a sustained market like this. Since the crash of '08, other than for maybe a year, the market's gone straight up. And the market's up over 70% since its lows in March of last year. All with a chit economy. There's so much money being pumped into the economy and with interest rates so low there's nothing else to do with the money except real estate. And real estate is insane now too.

We'll clearly have a correction at some time but using any kind of historical indicator to predict it I think is almost useless these days.

My advice would be to enjoy the ride, take profits, set stops so that when the big correction comes you still retain a lot of what you've gained.

[smashedurgfx10]

I for one, cant wait for a huge crash, so I can invest big on the market.

this. but i think we will first see the stocks that were hit hard by the pandemic recover. i.e. travel and tourism sectors

the 'crash' will come almost out of nowhere. it'll be after a return to normality. maybe early next year or so, when people realise that the economy is fukked.

so long as money is continually being pumped the market has nowhere to go but up

[topperstyle]

this. but i think we will first see the stocks that were hit hard by the pandemic recover. i.e. travel and tourism sectors

the 'crash' will come almost out of nowhere. it'll be after a return to normality. maybe early next year or so, when people realise that the economy is fukked.

so long as money is continually being pumped the market has nowhere to go but up

Yes. It will be sudden and violent. The only people who will win are the few who can time the actual bottom. No one will know where that is until after it’s happened.

[taf1968]

Starting up the ESPP at work again was a good call. The current stock price is double the purchase price from this week's buy and more than triple the purchase price of the last 2020 buy.

I was in it consistently for years before we were acquired. Then I wasn't sure if I was going to stick around and so didn't sign up for it originally. Still not sure about the sticking around part, but figured it was worth getting back in after all.

[MediocreGains]

Trying to time tops and bottoms is a losing game. Just look at Venom. Timed the bottom well, but then he tried to call a top and wiped himself out.

[Venom08]

The problem with the more recent retail investors is many have only seen stonks go up, so when a correction comes it can be exacerbating by emotional trades that just generate more downward momentum.

Let’s be honest, tons of novice investors are holding big money in Tesla, and other memes. Once you break the seal on a genuine bearish move it could have (as carbon has mentioned many times) market wide implications.

Once they realize that stocks don't only go up, they will likely move away from investing. It's hard to come back when you're up 500% and suddenly see it at -50% because you were waiting for 1000% gains. There are a lot of suckers in this market rn and they won't be around a year from now, imo.

[camaleom]

^^^ good advises

I have had my 401k with Tia and I kinda change my portfolio but it was a macro level so I started to spent "extra" income trading... and as you said: you are going to lose... part of the process but that is why I set up very lowwwww limits for trading.

With that being said: I bought into the gme and amc frenzy... made a couple Ks with gme and lost couple 100s with AMC and I got back in again this week when they touched bottom. Next week is a hearing and the SEC is looking into it so "I have a feeling" that something may happen and if doesn't then I won't lose much if any.