*Official* Options trading thread: Why Alpha/Beta when you can Theta?

[NoScrubz]

Futures rippin. Oil to the moon brahs!

[Carbonfibre]

Futures rippin.

wouldn't call +100 ripping.

anyways don't trust the futures. I stop giving shiit last year about futures.

it can flip from red to green and vice versa without warning.

all that matters is what happens during trading hours.

[usersignup2]

das it


I haven't spent one second with TA aside from laughing at people drawing with crayons on them. Would love it if you wanted to share more info, or if it's as clear cut as "stuck" then that's cool too lol.

It would be nice if it expired next week at ~$720. Then I have a May $760CSP to look forward to, and then a LEAP csp that currently sucks to look at.

I know some dont use it. I think it can be a useful tool but I dont rely heavily on it. Kinda like the weather forecast.

Anyways if youre interested, this is what I see.

https://tinyurl.com/499xa4wh

Most T&A are lagging indicators. Ichimoku can be a forward predictor. TSLA price action is right in the cloud (green area) so price action is likely to be sluggish until it breaks up or down through the cloud.

Im playing this cautiously. Ive got Mar19 850csp and deep ITM so hoping for Monday stimulus pop to break up. Fingers crossed. Otherwise still selling calls like usual.

[Carbonfibre]

RKT is now trending on wsb


already nice volume on March 5th options

[NoScrubz]

Went a bit crazy last week buying calls lol:

PLTR 3/12 and 3/19 $25c
XLE 4/16 and 5/21 $50c
SU 6/18 $25c
GE 6/18 $15c
SOXX 4/16 $450c
CNQ 6/18 $30c

Still holding
CCIV 3/19 $30/$35 call spread
TSLA 7/16 $550/$500 put spread

Das it

[Travis99]

RKT taking off. Good luck guys.

[chino3]

RKT is now trending on wsb


already nice volume on March 5th options

RKT taking off. Good luck guys.

Almost, ALMOST makes me upset I ever got out, but then I look at how much money I made after selling out. Have my 3/5 csp that will be pure money, just wish I would've done more lol.

Only thing in play for me this week is

TSLA $720 strangle 3/5/21 (x2)
720cc: $17.50, 720csp: $42
Breakevens at expiry: $772.00, $660.48

Waiting for PLTR to climb a little more before opening CC's. Ideally 3/19 $30 @ $1

Otherwise just hoping ARK (all of them) come back up hard over the next couple of weeks, because as of now, I will be getting assigned on all of them lol.

[Carbonfibre]

RKT is being driven by wsb again.

you can see it on the OTM calls like 34$

I suspect RKT will get to $25 unless MM again pin it down to $21.


damn I was week off, wish I bought this weeks weekly.

[usersignup2]

Cautious approach for the next while looking at 10 and 20 Delta strikes on weeklies. Have a bunch of smaller trades expiring next 2 weeks. Concerned we will see momentum moves within that time frame so will not put new longer dated trades on board.

STO
TSLA Mar05 755C x2
PLTR Mar05 27C x5

STO retirement
TSLA Mar05 780C x2

If everything expires worthless, will net 2400 for the week. Considering uncertainty of the markets and implied risk, quite comfortable with that.

[roughinhouse]

Well that makes sense lol. And yeah, I really enjoy teaching as well as learning, but I wasn’t getting those interactions towards the end, and I cannot imagine it’s any different now.



Holy chit that’s awesome! What’s the fee?


Lol be honest, you are talking about yourself.

They 100% aren’t making 30% gains on CC’s especially in 1 day lol

There's 1 guy named Kindredd. all his trades are posted and he easily averages 30%+ if not 80%+ a day srs. His TSLA calls/puts are insane. He's the only one there i recommend following. You can go through his channel if you don't believe me.






Recommend making a paper account and follow what he does for a week. I did and i was up like 800% before going in for real. Currently up 30% since i chicken out too early.

[chino3]

There's 1 guy named Kindredd. all his trades are posted and he easily averages 30%+ if not 80%+ a day srs. His TSLA calls/puts are insane. He's the only one there i recommend following. You can go through his channel if you don't believe me.


img]https://i.imgur.com/20Oz5Ux.png[/img]
img]https://i.imgur.com/RVdH6tI.png[/img]
img]https://i.imgur.com/WbFG8hG.png[/img]

Recommend making a paper account and follow what he does for a week. I did and i was up like 800% before going in for real. Currently up 30% since i chicken out too early.

Neat, but tug was asking about selling covered calls. I commented on covered calls. You are commenting on buying calls/puts. These are very, VERY, different things. Also, I'm gonna be a skeptical hippo on your returns, unless you're just yolo'ing on meme stocks. I haven't seen you in this thread until last week, so I obviously can't say what your style is, but just from what you've shared so far, I'd be quite cautious, especially when:

got some pltr $30 and apple calls. Hope this week treats me well.

my pltr calls are killing me. Bought 10 @30sp when it was $29.30 a share. Should've sold this morning damn it.

My gme calls are going to get iv crushed. Well I tried risking it to see If I could make some big money and I'd hate if it did and I didn't take the risk. Was up 1000% at one point ****.

[Carbonfibre]

Thoughts on this? Idea.

Been thinking far out put leaps on any of these especially MRNA / Novavax they have gone up astronomically during covid.

So now there is 4 vaccines for covid.

Pfizer
JJ
Moderna
Azn
Novavax

Does it not seem that there will be oversupply and not enough demand coming by end of summer.

Unless covid will be yearly flu like vaccine going forward.



Novavax was $18 stock one year ago. Now trading at $240. Was up to $320 recently.

Moderna $30 stock one year ago. Now $160ish..ath $180.

[mikusk]

Waiting for PLTR to climb a little more before opening CC's. Ideally 3/19 $30 @ $1

same here

[chino3]

Thoughts on this? Idea.

Been thinking far out put leaps on any of these especially MRNA / Novavax they have gone up astronomically during covid.

So now there is 4 vaccines for covid.

Pfizer
JJ
Moderna
Azn
Novavax

Does it not seem that there will be oversupply and not enough demand coming by end of summer.

Unless covid will be yearly flu like vaccine going forward.



Novavax was $18 stock one year ago. Now trading at $240. Was up to $320 recently.

Moderna $30 stock one year ago. Now $160ish..ath $180.

Makes sense, but I think Moderna might actually be on to some new huge things. I know he's a clown but to say something like this could have serious ramifications, but Jim Cramer said last week that Moderna is making headway on something to combat several types of cancer... This RNA chit is the future, it's just gonna be a matter of who makes the most of it.

[MediocreGains]

RKT is being driven by wsb again.

you can see it on the OTM calls like 34$

I suspect RKT will get to $25 unless MM again pin it down to $21.


damn I was week off, wish I bought this weeks weekly.

The 25c I sold for next week is already ITM. Maybe I should've waited, lol. But I expect a drop after the dividend date.

[Carbonfibre]

Makes sense, but I think Moderna might actually be on to some new huge things. I know he's a clown but to say something like this could have serious ramifications, but Jim Cramer said last week that Moderna is making headway on something to combat several types of cancer... This RNA chit is the future, it's just gonna be a matter of who makes the most of it.

Just read this article exactly what Moderna/Cramer was talking about.

RNA is big deal for sure.

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...nes-covid-hiv/

Only question is how long before other uses are tested and developed. Could be years.



Once I saw this morning.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...on-coronavirus


I was like wait of minute.

There is gonna be so much supply floating in few months.

[Carbonfibre]

The 25c I sold for next week is already ITM. Maybe I should've waited, lol. But I expect a drop after the dividend date.

Yeah, think lock in is March 8th for dividend.

Pissed I was off by week on RKT calls.


I think it will drop back to $25 after dividend.

[Travis99]

Who sold calls on rkt

[MediocreGains]

Who sold calls on rkt

Me

Edit:

Bought back the 25c at open (by accident) and sold the 30c at a higher price on that pump. That worked out somehow, lol.

[Carbonfibre]

Me

Edit:

Bought back the 25c at open (by accident) and sold the 30c at a higher price on that pump. That worked out somehow, lol.

I had buy button on 34C Friday expiry

but too risky.

ship probably sailed now


~$2.25 to hope it hits ~$3 lol

wouldn't make sense

[chino3]

To think, it would've only taken me 9 months to get back to green on RKT fukkin lol. I won't go anywhere near it again. I don't even trust selling puts at these levels.

I'm thinking about a long position in CRM. The premiums are dog chit, so maybe sell ATM puts. Anyone have any thoughts on salesforce?

[chino3]

DASH has already plummeted hard fukking core over the past week, but the pain may not be done yet. Early expiration of lockup was announced yesterday, how early? 3 months early. Basically starting March 9th, over 110 MILLION shares will be eligible to hit the public market,

That represents about 35.8% of the total shares outstanding, and could effectively more than double the public float.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...res-2021-03-01

[Carbonfibre]

I had buy button on 34C Friday expiry

but too risky.

ship probably sailed now


~$2.25 to hope it hits ~$3 lol

wouldn't make sense

lmao

this would been good about now


$34C is in the money

trading now at $4.5

[MediocreGains]

Me

Edit:

Bought back the 25c at open (by accident) and sold the 30c at a higher price on that pump. That worked out somehow, lol.

lmao

this would been good about now


$34C is in the money

trading now at $4.5

Well, didn't see that coming. Kind of annoyed that I limited my gains that way. Had to close the CC and sold my shares on that AH spike. I'll get back in when this pump and dump is over.

Still made more money on RKT that I never thought I would when I initially bought in, so can't really complain.

[chino3]

Trying something a little different, call debit spread.

WMT took a beating this week, and it's really quite surprising. Especially since they just announced yesterday they're entering the fintech game, and are very fukkin srs about it:

https://financialpost.com/news/fp-st...gest-nightmare

Walmart Inc. just took one step closer to being JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s biggest nightmare.

By luring a pair of senior bankers from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to run its fledgling financial technology startup, the world’s largest retailer is gaining even more heft as it seeks to become a one-stop shop for consumers’ financial needs.

To lead the effort, Walmart plucked Omer Ismail, a longtime veteran of Goldman Sachs who was a key architect of the lender’s consumer efforts in recent years. Ismail will bring along David Stark, who inked Goldman’s partnership with Apple Inc. and oversaw its tie-ups with JetBlue Airways Corp. and Amazon.com Inc.

With more than 150 million customers and 5,300 stores across the U.S. — many of which are open 24/7 — Walmart would instantly have a consumer base and network of branches that would rival those of JPMorgan, Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co.

Now my play may be way too premature, but with how badly it fell this week so far, combined with people getting time to digest all of this and "Walmart's (WMT) Management Presents at Raymond James 42nd Annual Institutional Investors"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/441...ors-conference

I have to imagine some good solid movement.

WMT
4/16/21
BTO: $145c @ $.59 x20
STO: $150c @ $.35 x20
Total Entry Cost: $480
Maximum Profit: $9520 @ $150+ at expiry
http://opcalc.com/qtn

Again, my expiry may be a little premature, but recent highs were just under $150 so that target should be realistic over the next 45 days, especially with this news settling. If it stays flat through next week, I may look into doing the same thing buy with LEAPs.

[Carbonfibre]

Well, didn't see that coming. Kind of annoyed that I limited my gains that way. Had to close the CC and sold my shares on that AH spike. I'll get back in when this pump and dump is over.

Still made more money on RKT that I never thought I would when I initially bought in, so can't really complain.

You did well.

All I did was spent 5 minutes thinking should I buy 34$C when it was $2ish.

huge mistake not taking $2-3K flyer on it.

Those 34$C peaked at $12. (around $9.5 right now)

On the inside mad jelly haha.

[Realclout]

Commenting, To learn more only did it one time on a cannabis company wrote calls but set the strike above market opposed to below like an idiot and ended up with about 100 shares of a worthless company for twice it's value so sold right away after expiration and checked on it for lolz a couple months later would've made 1500% return if I held feels batman.

[Carbonfibre]

Trying something a little different, call debit spread.

WMT took a beating this week, and it's really quite surprising. Especially since they just announced yesterday they're entering the fintech game, and are very fukkin srs about it:

I think it will hit.

Walmart has tested $150 range 4-5 times bottoms out at $130 month later it gets around $150 to test ATH.

Might do straight up leap tmmrw on Walmart.

Stealing your trade lol.

[chino3]

I think it will hit.

Walmart has tested $150 range 4-5 times bottoms out at $130 month later it gets around $150 to test ATH.

Might do straight up leap tmmrw on Walmart.

Stealing your trade lol.

do it! LMK what date and strikes you do. Their options are surprisingly cheap.


I just had a "oh chit" moment about RKT, and would appreciate any feedback or holes to be poked in my theory/thought process:

Why is RKT mooning? ***spoiler***It's shorts and the dividend and it's more complicated than just that, but read on for more info ***spoiler***


Shorts and Dividends - There was a rather surprising amount of short interest in RKT considering tutes ownership, and how much is privately held as well, but with how pinned RKT has always been, it makes sense. Starting yesterday we saw more volume than ANY OTHER DAY for RKT, including IPO... That's not retail. That's shorts.

Why? This is important... When you are short a stock with a dividend, YOU pay out said dividend. Jay Farner said last ER that this is not a stock you want to short... The writing was on the wall. This was a carefully calculated move to

1) fukk over shorts and force them to cover ASAP,
2) get eyeballs on RKT,
3) toss their bag holders a bone.

This move created a substantial sense of urgency for shorts to cover ASAP with the record date occurring just one week away. Shorts learned a very expensive lesson recently, so combine that history with the record date, and you get what we've witnessed so far.

So what does that mean moving forward? Probably a HUGE rug pull. I cannot say with even the slightest certainty when or how much, but I can't imagine it taking more than 45 days, and should result in sub $30.

Reasons people will use to rationalize the climb, but why they're wrong:

Blow out quarter? Yes, but not the reason. They have murdered every ER since they went public. Why would this be any different? They did a good job of shutting down the folk who say that as rates go up their profits will go down, but this isn't new information, and they didn't sway millions and millions of order flows with that tidbit.

Special one time dividend? Yes, but that only boosted it the first couple bucks AT MOST. At announcement it was a 5% div AT ONCE instead of annually. Jeepers that's awesome! So definitely enticing for bag holders and newbies. But at these prices, it's a 2% payout. Pretty average comparatively speaking. But also, the experienced trader knows what happens after a dividend payout... It drops by that amount (tax adjusted typically), so you usually see a quick exit after the record date for max pump profits, so you will see a dip not only then but after the payout date.

[Carbonfibre]

do it! LMK what date and strikes you do. Their options are surprisingly cheap.


I just had a "oh chit" moment about RKT, and would appreciate any feedback or holes to be poked in my theory/thought process:

Why is RKT mooning? ***spoiler***It's shorts and the dividend and it's more complicated than just that, but read on for more info ***spoiler***


Shorts and Dividends - There was a rather surprising amount of short interest in RKT considering tutes ownership, and how much is privately held as well, but with how pinned RKT has always been, it makes sense. Starting yesterday we saw more volume than ANY OTHER DAY for RKT, including IPO... That's not retail. That's shorts.

Why? This is important... When you are short a stock with a dividend, YOU pay out said dividend. Jay Farner said last ER that this is not a stock you want to short... The writing was on the wall. This was a carefully calculated move to

1) fukk over shorts and force them to cover ASAP,
2) get eyeballs on RKT,
3) toss their bag holders a bone.

This move created a substantial sense of urgency for shorts to cover ASAP with the record date occurring just one week away. Shorts learned a very expensive lesson recently, so combine that history with the record date, and you get what we've witnessed so far.

So what does that mean moving forward? Probably a HUGE rug pull. I cannot say with even the slightest certainty when or how much, but I can't imagine it taking more than 45 days, and should result in sub $30.

Reasons people will use to rationalize the climb, but why they're wrong:

Blow out quarter? Yes, but not the reason. They have murdered every ER since they went public. Why would this be any different? They did a good job of shutting down the folk who say that as rates go up their profits will go down, but this isn't new information, and they didn't sway millions and millions of order flows with that tidbit.

Special one time dividend? Yes, but that only boosted it the first couple bucks AT MOST. At announcement it was a 5% div AT ONCE instead of annually. Jeepers that's awesome! So definitely enticing for bag holders and newbies. But at these prices, it's a 2% payout. Pretty average comparatively speaking. But also, the experienced trader knows what happens after a dividend payout... It drops by that amount (tax adjusted typically), so you usually see a quick exit after the record date for max pump profits, so you will see a dip not only then but after the payout date.

100 percent agree on RKT

This statement that Farner made January 29th day after GME exploded.

Rocket Companies offers a multi-year long growth story, so this is "not a stock you want to be short in," the CEO said. "You might want to rethink your position if that's how you are playing it," Farner said. "We've got a great track record and a lot of exciting things we are working on."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocke...174605720.html

Dividend was for sure move to get more attention on RKT.

They were inviting wsb to get in on rkt emoji train.

Just look at that institutional ownership.

https://docoh.com/company/1805284/RK...ership-history

Like I said in other thread.

Its super easy to use wsb to find new bag holders throwing around "short squeeze".

RKT will be back to $25 range after March 19th imo.

..................................................

Gonna wait for option prices tmmrw on Walmart.

Probably going to go lower $140-145 strike since option are cheap for April 16th