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  1. #151
    Registered User SuperHercules's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Destor View Post
    How are we claiming that lockdowns don't work when posting curves like this?


    Comparing different states etc is fraught with layers of complexity. Florida's new cases aren't ramping up as quickly as New York right now, ok. The state of New York has 8.4million people crammed into New York City at a density twice of Miami and damn near 20x that of Jacksonville. It's warm af in Florida, it's cold in New York.


    This is chit for epidemiologists to analyze, it'll probably take months to account for all the nuance and come up with accurate comparisons

    The whole warm weather nonsense was just a guess that has proven to be false. The warmest parts of Europe aren't doing any better than the north. Latin America is getting hammered
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  2. #152
    N3rd Op3rator twovalvekid's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    I have 3 undegrad degrees and an advanced degree, but regardless,
    In what exactly? And do you actually use or practice with them regularly?
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  3. #153
    Registered User xbluexhawkx's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    I have 3 undegrad degrees and an advanced degree, but regardless, it doesn't matter what my background is. If you question something, question the sources I linked which I am citing. Those people have PhDs in these fields and are very qualified to educate you. I'm actually also very qualified to educate you. But even if you dispute that, you can look at the sources I linked and see the arguments being made. Ad hominems against me don't invalidate the research of the various professors I have linked.
    lmao @ this fraud

    you literally posted a linear graph of total cases that every single state in the United States follows, trying to "prove" something

    miscers responded and you failed miserably

    remember to take your meds today
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  4. #154
    nultrum kilda wincel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by twovalvekid View Post
    Im going to regret this....but....

    To use misc llingo, providing non-normalized statistics/gross numbers is not it mane. Gross numbers provide zero, or minimal at best insight when youre unpacking and analyzing data to help you draw conclusions on a problem or solution.

    As stated above, also looks similar to other states. And considering what i have to be knowledgeable with on covid, the numbers and overall look of the graph are very similar to my home state, and many others.

    Which goes back to my original point. The statistics are so all over the place from state to state, that a full scale lockdown that destroys the economy and creates so many other intangible problems is not the solution.
    There is nothing wrong with using a linear scale to describe numbers. We use different scales to help people visualize large differences in orders of magnitude. That's all. There is plenty of insight to be gained. The trend is obvious. Cases have increased. It is a valid hypothesis that the cases increased due to increased testing, but this hypothesis is easily shown false by seeing that hospitalization rates increased in tandem. That doesn't really fit the narrative of Mr. Trump and his Republican friends. It is really easy to debunk that talking point.

    First of all, no statistic was ever presented here. This is just data. Second of all, the trends are indeed different from state to state because each state has different policies, demographics, conditions, population densities, etc. That does not prevent us from looking at Florida and seeing how things change in response to specific policies. Whether a lockdown is worth it or not is debatable. It depends on how we define worth.

    Whether a lockdown reduces the spread of the disease isn't really that controversial in my opinion. Consider the extreme case of a quarantine. In a quarantine, your chance of getting the virus is effectively zero. Anything that increases the probability of human interactions increases the probability of transmission, and likewise, anything that decreases the probability of human interactions decreases the probability of transmission. Surely, you will admit this?
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  5. #155
    N3rd Op3rator twovalvekid's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    There is nothing wrong with using a linear scale to describe numbers.
    Stopping you right here. When youre trying to make the point that you were, there is. The fact that you are so entrenched in this shows me all i need to know.








    So what are those "Advanced degrees" in?
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  6. #156
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    Wrong question

    The question is, why is a state that is younger and locked down having almost twice the deaths of an older, open state?
    One big benefit Florida has is lots of sun. Take a look at the location of nearly all the places getting wrecked. All of the top dozen are far north with little sun or deep south with the most black (whose skin blocks UV causing Vit D deficiency) population that are faring worst and swaying numbers. Guaranteed people have less Vitamin D deficiency in Florida. That confusing part is Southern California having so many hospitalizations and even recent deaths. Or maybe that's hyped up a bit and SoCal really needs to increase its hospital capacity, because they had the same problems, requiring tent hospitals 3 years ago from flu.
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  7. #157
    Registered User xbluexhawkx's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by twovalvekid View Post
    Stopping you right here. When youre trying to make the point that you were, there is. The fact that you are so entrenched in this shows me all i need to know.








    So what are those "Advanced degrees" in?
    nobody with "advanced degrees" lives in mom's basement and religiously posts on a forum all day
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  8. #158
    My pronouns are Bro/Brah Procta's Avatar
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  9. #159
    nultrum kilda wincel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by twovalvekid View Post
    In what exactly? And do you actually use or practice with them regularly?
    It's pretty easy to guess which 3 subjects they are in if you read my posts. I don't want to share too much information about myself since I have a unique background that means I am probably one of only a handful of people in my state with these specific credentials. I've actually already told misc enough to theoretically be doxxed.

    I don't practice or use anything regularly anymore. I haven't done anything with my life in 3 years in that front. I did use some of it in my vocation.

    Anyway, this thread isn't about me. That's the thing. Even if I had zero credentials, it wouldn't affect the validity of the studies I link and the videos made by university professors. Those people are clearly eminently qualified.
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  10. #160
    Registered User tehgosu's Avatar
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    what about Miami? on top of that didn't Angie recently get divorced? might have to plan a little trip nomsayin
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  11. #161
    Proud Dad 5x10's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by frankdtank20 View Post
    One big benefit Florida has is lots of sun. Take a look at the location of nearly all the places getting wrecked. All of the top dozen are far north with little sun or deep south with the most black (whose skin blocks UV causing Vit D deficiency) population that are faring worst and swaying numbers. Guaranteed people have less Vitamin D deficiency in Florida. That confusing part is Southern California having so many hospitalizations and even recent deaths. Or maybe that's hyped up a bit and SoCal really needs to increase its hospital capacity, because they had the same problems, requiring tent hospitals 3 years ago from flu.
    isnt Cali pretty sunny?
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  12. #162
    nultrum kilda wincel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by xbluexhawkx View Post
    nobody with "advanced degrees" lives in mom's basement and religiously posts on a forum all day
    Well, I'm here.
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  13. #163
    Registered User MiamiLife305's Avatar
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  14. #164
    nultrum kilda wincel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by twovalvekid View Post
    Stopping you right here. When youre trying to make the point that you were, there is. The fact that you are so entrenched in this shows me all i need to know.








    So what are those "Advanced degrees" in?
    You're not going to answer my questions then? You're just going to pursue this ad hominem/doxxing strategy?
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  15. #165
    N3rd Op3rator twovalvekid's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    It's pretty easy to guess which 3 subjects they are in if you read my posts. I don't want to share too much information about myself since I have a unique background that means I am probably one of only a handful of people in my state with these specific credentials. I've actually already told misc enough to theoretically be doxxed.

    I don't practice or use anything regularly anymore. I haven't done anything with my life in 3 years in that front. I did use some of it in my vocation.

    Anyway, this thread isn't about me. That's the thing. Even if I had zero credentials, it wouldn't affect the validity of the studies I link and the videos made by university professors. Those people are clearly eminently qualified.

    So.....youre full of chit.


    Got it.

    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    You're not going to answer my questions then? You're just going to pursue this ad hominem/doxxing strategy?
    Nope. Like i said, it's useless. Especially if you dont understand why posting gross numbers is a problem.


    "Advanced Degrees"

    In what? Pillow biting? Basket weaving? Gender Studies?
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    It's alright on the Misc, because I don't have to hear people's posts, but fúck me if Americans are the most annoying cúnts on the planet.
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    Originally Posted by twovalvekid View Post
    So.....youre full of chit.


    Got it.
    Are you going to answer my questions and explain why we saw a rise in hospitalizations? Clearly, you're the one entrenched here.

    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    There is nothing wrong with using a linear scale to describe numbers. We use different scales to help people visualize large differences in orders of magnitude. That's all. There is plenty of insight to be gained. The trend is obvious. Cases have increased. It is a valid hypothesis that the cases increased due to increased testing, but this hypothesis is easily shown false by seeing that hospitalization rates increased in tandem. That doesn't really fit the narrative of Mr. Trump and his Republican friends. It is really easy to debunk that talking point.

    First of all, no statistic was ever presented here. This is just data. Second of all, the trends are indeed different from state to state because each state has different policies, demographics, conditions, population densities, etc. That does not prevent us from looking at Florida and seeing how things change in response to specific policies. Whether a lockdown is worth it or not is debatable. It depends on how we define worth.

    Whether a lockdown reduces the spread of the disease isn't really that controversial in my opinion. Consider the extreme case of a quarantine. In a quarantine, your chance of getting the virus is effectively zero. Anything that increases the probability of human interactions increases the probability of transmission, and likewise, anything that decreases the probability of human interactions decreases the probability of transmission. Surely, you will admit this?
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  18. #168
    N3rd Op3rator twovalvekid's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Are you going to answer my questions and explain why we saw a rise in hospitalizations? Clearly, you're the one entrenched here.
    Nope. See my previous statement. You have an obvious agenda to push where there is only one answer. In which, you're going to get in a circular argument about.
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  19. #169
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    Originally Posted by twovalvekid View Post
    Nope. Like i said, it's useless. Especially if you dont understand why posting gross numbers is a problem.
    Why is posting gross numbers a problem? This is a restatement of my original question of why a linear scale is problematic, which you did not really answer in your reply.

    This was your argument.

    Gross numbers provide zero, or minimal at best insight when youre unpacking and analyzing data to help you draw conclusions on a problem or solution.
    This is not true. I can prove it since the basic numerical data is what is used to create whatever visualization you are trying to make, regardless of scale. The relationships are actually encoded in the numerical data. While humans may prefer to visualize data across different orders of magnitude using different scales, this does not preclude someone from presenting data on a linear scale. It also is entirely appropriate to present this data on a linear scale, but one can also use a logarithmic scale if they feel so inclined. It makes no difference to the actual trends in the data.
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    This is not the problem.

    It's if they go visit grandma and grandpa after.

    Stay away from the Q tip population. They're the only ones at risk (mostly).
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    Originally Posted by veggie530 View Post
    This is not the problem.

    It's if they go visit grandma and grandpa after.

    Stay away from the Q tip population. They're the only ones at risk (mostly).
    If we completely isolated the elderly, this would work to protect them. But roughly 1/4 of the deaths are of people under the age of 65. They would need to be isolated as well.
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Why is posting gross numbers a problem? This is a restatement of my original question of why a linear scale is problematic, which you did not really answer in your reply.

    This was your argument.



    This is not true. I can prove it since the basic numerical data is what is used to create whatever visualization you are trying to make, regardless of scale. The relationships are actually encoded in the numerical data. While humans may prefer to visualize data across different orders of magnitude using different scales, this does not preclude someone from presenting data on a linear scale. It also is entirely appropriate to present this data on a linear scale, but one can also use a logarithmic scale if they feel so inclined. It makes no difference to the actual trends in the data.
    "Advanced Degrees"

    Continued cherry picking.
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    Originally Posted by SuperHercules View Post
    The whole warm weather nonsense was just a guess that has proven to be false. The warmest parts of Europe aren't doing any better than the north. Latin America is getting hammered
    Weather is one factor brah and thus the complexity. You can't debunk the impact of weather without accounting for the plethora other things that may be influencing spread in one area but not another


    This chit is far from simple and it's probably impossible to accurately compare numbers on the fly. But I'm not sure how we're claiming lockdowns don't work when posting curves like this



    That.... That's a lockdown right there
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    Originally Posted by Destor View Post

    This chit is far from simple and it's probably impossible to accurately compare numbers on the fly.
    Bingo.

    Just like every other issue in life, you have to make decisions based on *everything* you see in front of you.

    Just not one piece. Everything has it's place in the decision tree.
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Well, I'm here.
    Well you don’t have any degrees.

    African studies is not a degree.
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    If we completely isolated the elderly, this would work to protect them. But roughly 1/4 of the deaths are of people under the age of 65. They would need to be isolated as well.
    In fact, people over the age of 54 account for 97.18 percent of total COVID deaths.
    https://www.cnsnews.com/article/nati...e-under-age-34

    3% deaths under 55
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    Originally Posted by xbluexhawkx View Post
    Well you don’t have any degrees.

    African studies is not a degree.
    Nah bro. He's sweet. It's all good. It's some super secret squirrel stuff he cant talk about. And so highly specialized, we immediately be able to detective him.

    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    It's pretty easy to guess which 3 subjects they are in if you read my posts. I don't want to share too much information about myself since I have a unique background that means I am probably one of only a handful of people in my state with these specific credentials. I've actually already told misc enough to theoretically be doxxed.

    I don't practice or use anything regularly anymore. I haven't done anything with my life in 3 years in that front. I did use some of it in my vocation.

    Anyway, this thread isn't about me. That's the thing. Even if I had zero credentials, it wouldn't affect the validity of the studies I link and the videos made by university professors. Those people are clearly eminently qualified.
    He's obviously has a PhD in some materials science and works in the US patent office that deals with dildos.
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    Originally Posted by twovalvekid View Post
    "Advanced Degrees"

    Continued cherry picking.
    So you're just going to keep using ad hominem attacks and refusing to answer the question because I have eviscerated your argument. Standard.

    BTW if you know statistics, what is the probability I get between 2 and 4 heads inclusively when a coin is flipped 10 times? What is the mean of this probability distribution used here? What is its variance? How do you find these?
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  29. #179
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    So you're just going to keep using ad hominem attacks and refusing to answer the question because I have eviscerated your argument. Standard.
    With you? Yep.

    An actual adult, nope.
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  30. #180
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    So you would say isolate everyone under the age of 55?

    That would exclude a lot of parents.
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