Are you starting to know more and more people with COVID-19

[Reliance012]

Just about every state is taking extreme precautions to only law abiding citizens and we are talking a difference in deaths from under 300,000 covid in near a year to MILLIONS Spanish Flu.

Now think about this, no one was protesting during the Spanish flu (also it's a Flu) that still killed more. There have been millions protesting this entire time, a good 8 months.

I genuinely still don’t understand the point you’re trying to make. Do we need this virus to be as devastating as the Spanish flu to warrant preventative measures? Yes, that variant of influenza and the conditions of host immunity together led to one of the worst pandemics in history. Yes it was far worse than this virus. I don’t think anyone is arguing otherwise.

[ChazWood]

That feeling when someone you haven't seen before in the O35M gets into a discussion with our "special" member, LWW.

[LWW]

That feeling when someone you haven't seen before in the O35M gets into a discussion with our "special" member, LWW.

Special, meaning I (unlike a number of people of THINK they know something on this forum) know that by science I can walk into a store, keep my mouth shut, maybe say a word or two far away from someone and not spread covid, particularly I've never had covid.

Unlike a mask where the entrapment of droplets are held and then I touch the mask which then releases the droplet or touches my hand and the dropet is then transmitted to an object.

I go with science, not feel good wishy washy social order.

Waiting for love bug to say "that's not how it spreads", well it does spread in that manner.

[Gabbar99]

You don't see that difference??????? And to think the entire country is protesting (not a little San Francisco mask protest).

Again, I still have no idea what point you're making, but you said less than 300,000 for covid and millions for the spanish flu. Seems like you were quoting the US number for covid and the world number for the spanish flu, so I thought I'd post the numbers. Of course there's a difference, how did posting the number mean I don't see the difference? What are you even talking about?

Nevermind, I have no desire to join the argument, whatever the argument is, I was just posting the numbers.

[Payton1221]

Today I struck up one conversation at the gas station and one at the grocery store. One lady lost TWO family members, and one gentleman lost his 86 year old father to Covid.

[gym62richard]

I genuinely still don’t understand the point you’re trying to make. Do we need this virus to be as devastating as the Spanish flu to warrant preventative measures? Yes, that variant of influenza and the conditions of host immunity together led to one of the worst pandemics in history. Yes it was far worse than this virus. I don’t think anyone is arguing otherwise.

I believe comparing the present covid 19 pandemic to the 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic is an exercise in futility., would Spanish Flue still be as deadly today?.

Todays living standards are much improved, the huge advances in medical science over the last 100 years is staggering. In the early 20th century medical treatment was still pretty basic, conditions such as cancer, diabetes and tuberculosis, in the vast majority of cases were untreatable, a simple cut or general infection could be fatal.

Thankfully today medics have an armoury of drugs and treatment at their disposal, how many lives could have been saved in 1918-19 if the medical professionals had the knowledge and specialised equipment, advanced intensive care facilities, antibiotics, antivirals and steroids we take for granted today.

[LWW]

I believe comparing the present covid 19 pandemic to the 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic is an exercise in futility., would Spanish Flue still be as deadly today?.

Todays living standards are much improved, the huge advances in medical science over the last 100 years is staggering. In the early 20th century medical treatment was still pretty basic, conditions such as cancer, diabetes and tuberculosis, in the vast majority of cases were untreatable, a simple cut or general infection could be fatal.

Thankfully today medics have an armoury of drugs and treatment at their disposal, how many lives could have been saved in 1918-19 if the medical professionals had the knowledge and specialised equipment, advanced intensive care facilities, antibiotics, antivirals and steroids we take for granted today.

There was lack of tools to create a vaccine back then, now according to Farley, this virus won't be shut down when Biden gets in, so that one full year of this, which don't really help support your very thoughtful hypothesis.

[OldFartTom]

I believe comparing the present covid 19 pandemic to the 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic is an exercise in futility., would Spanish Flue still be as deadly today?

No, and not just treatments. In part because the human population (at least ones studied in US and Europe still carries antibodies that would be beneficial all these years later. Impressive considering almost every current living person wasn't alive then

As a point of fact of accuracy, since discussing individuals always leads to claims, well person X was ill so they may have died anyway, which is a very callous argument because in normal circumstances there wouldn't be restrictions on visiting and funerals.

If in the event misc wanted to have a more useful debate I'm dreaming... then it would be based on excess mortality and not death rate. Also people who didn't die but had significant health impact would also figure in discussion

Anyway the idea of excess mortality is to try to estimate how many people died who probably wouldn't have died anyway. link is a graph of US death numbers for the last 5 years in first wave

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...aw-death-count

So you can see an estimate of the excess deaths caused. Next consider how many people die annually from flu or flu like symptoms each year in US, very variable but about 56,000 in a whole year
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/q...s-it-prevented so very very roughly that's 1000 a week, although it's seasonal so this is not very great, but there you go

So... See the chart for US excess deaths, think in terms of about 1,000 a week is flu contribution

Discuss amongst yourselves and conclude as you wish.

[Gabbar99]

That feeling when someone you haven't seen before in the O35M gets into a discussion with our "special" member, LWW.

Guilty.

Although I don't find him coherent enough to enter into a discussion.

[Payton1221]

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...aw-death-count

Very interesting. Thanks for posting that.

[LWW]

Guilty.

Although I don't find him coherent enough to enter into a discussion.

Maybe so, but I’m still a thinker, a few folks have brought in good research on my argument instead of saying I’m throwing sticks or asking why.

I thought of contact tracing before it was known to the public, that was when I learned about api’s. An api is an app that can communicate with another app, back then peoples web apps did not communicate with thier ******** dynamically, that’s when apis were the new thing.

[Plateauplower]

Maybe so, but I’m still a thinker, a few folks have brought in good research on my argument instead of saying I’m throwing sticks or asking why.

I thought of contact tracing before it was known to the public, that was when I learned about api’s. An api is an app that can communicate with another app, back then peoples web apps did not communicate with thier ******** dynamically, that’s when apis were the new thing.

You realize that contact tracing was used to identify “typhoid Mary” in the early 1900s, right?

[mtpockets]

You realize that contact tracing was to identify “typhoid Mary” in the early 1900s, right?

he doesn't even know his pronouns, we don't dare open the history books

[LWW]

You realize that contact tracing was used to identify “typhoid Mary” in the early 1900s, right?

Internet contact tracing using apps. You aren’t paying attention you are too quick to try and put a downer on me.

Internet was not available to the public until like the 90s but the blueprints may of been in the early 1900, there was no apps back then.

[gym62richard]

No, and not just treatments. In part because the human population (at least ones studied in US and Europe still carries antibodies that would be beneficial all these years later. Impressive considering almost every current living person wasn't alive then

As a point of fact of accuracy, since discussing individuals always leads to claims, well person X was ill so they may have died anyway, which is a very callous argument because in normal circumstances there wouldn't be restrictions on visiting and funerals.

If in the event misc wanted to have a more useful debate I'm dreaming... then it would be based on excess mortality and not death rate. Also people who didn't die but had significant health impact would also figure in discussion

Anyway the idea of excess mortality is to try to estimate how many people died who probably wouldn't have died anyway. link is a graph of US death numbers for the last 5 years in first wave

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...aw-death-count

So you can see an estimate of the excess deaths caused. Next consider how many people die annually from flu or flu like symptoms each year in US, very variable but about 56,000 in a whole year
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/q...s-it-prevented so very very roughly that's 1000 a week, although it's seasonal so this is not very great, but there you go

So... See the chart for US excess deaths, think in terms of about 1,000 a week is flu contribution

Discuss amongst yourselves and conclude as you wish.

When this is all over, I suspect once the data is fully analysed we will see a rise in the number of covid related deaths. As you suggest the steep rise in the excess mortality rate already highlights this.
I think it would be wise to factor into the equation the number of excess deaths not directly related to being infected with the virus. Figures already appear to show that many people showing symptoms of heart attack, stroke etc did not seek urgent medical assistance due to a fear of the virus, sadly many may have survived had they done so.

Another legacy of the virus, not often reported are the long term medical issues. My partner is a doctor, to be more precise a renal specialist, she and her colleagues throughout the UK are experiencing an ever increasing number of covid patients presenting with kidney damage, many require renal dialysis, at least in the short term, unfortunately a small percentage have more complex issues and will require long term dialysis or a kidney transplant.

A lesson I learned at the outset, do not make a comparison between covid 19 and influenza to my good lady, you wouldn't like her when she's angry.

[blue9steel]

Internet contact tracing using apps. You aren’t paying attention you are too quick to try and put a downer on me.

Internet was not available to the public until like the 90s but the blueprints may of been in the early 1900, there was no apps back then.

Just to throw gasoline on this dumpster fire, the internet, in it's earliest form ARPANET, was created in 1969.

[2nd_chance]

I know about 20-25 people who’ve had it. 100% had no issues at all. Like a cold.

[LWW]

Just to throw gasoline on this dumpster fire, the internet, in it's earliest form ARPANET, was created in 1969.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know that. The original creation goes back to WWII in case communication got cutoff, maybe that was DARPNET for DOD? but I’m not looking it up, I’m just going by memory, I’ve researched plenty, I could be wrong.

Basically only military and unversity computer science departments were using ( so I guess it was a available, but general public, not using except a rich smartazz) the first apps might of been email and ftp.

Throw more fire on it bluesteel guy the addresses of the Internet had totally run out, they used a 32bit address now you can look that up to tell how many addresses that holds (easy enough, 256x256x256x256). NAT was created to solve that problem now go look up that RFC. To make sure the Internet never runs out of address’s they made a 128bit space, no go get me that number and I’ll sent you a doggy treat!!!

I used 256 but not all of those are usable, simply going by memory, you should easily be able to look up the actual number 2^32.

[pvsampson]

I thought of contact tracing before it was known to the public,

You really are a f#cken idiot.

[LWW]

You really are a f#cken idiot.

I'm A "Rain Man".

[HannoCometh]

I know about 20-25 people who’ve had it. 100% had no issues at all. Like a cold.

Outrageous! Hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost and multitrillion dollar stimulus bills have been passed across several countries and you say "just a cold"?!

Outrageous? I'm calling the CIA on yo ass!

[Mark1T]

Outrageous! Hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost and multitrillion dollar stimulus bills have been passed across several countries and you say "just a cold"?!

Outrageous? I'm calling the CIA on yo ass!

I'm thinking that metal thing in the desert had something to do with it.

[LWW]

Outrageous! Hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost and multitrillion dollar stimulus bills have been passed across several countries and you say "just a cold"?!

Outrageous? I'm calling the CIA on yo ass!

I guess Empty Pockets was wright, it's not a flu. I had my head up my azz, its a cold!

[sy2502]

So you causally went out and about with those symptoms?

No you dummy, I meant the government lockdowns.

[Payton1221]

I know about 20-25 people who’ve had it. 100% had no issues at all. Like a cold.

I know ~20 who have had mild to significant, albeit not significant enough to warrant hospitalization, but my barber died of it in late March; my wife lost a coworker to it; and the premier gunsmith (a guy I've done some business with) in the Louisville area died of it within the last week.

[OldFartTom]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know that. The original creation goes back to WWII in case communication got cutoff, maybe that was DARPNET for DOD?.

No, it wasn't even an idea until 1959 (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Baran), packet switching (or block switching as it was then) wasnt unti 1964, and ARPANET project was initiated until 1969.
Not sure if you're jumbling this up purposefully, as bread roll (like "Hitler invented 7up"), or if you are genuinely confused here?

Either way, it's very off topic

[LWW]

No, it wasn't even an idea until 1959 (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Baran), packet switching (or block switching as it was then) wasnt unti 1964, and ARPANET project was initiated until 1969.
Not sure if you're jumbling this up purposefully, as bread roll (like "Hitler invented 7up"), or if you are genuinely confused here?

Either way, it's very off topic

If I were to cite wkipedia on a college paper, I’d loose points sir.
But Tesla had the idea, probially blueprints too, why else would someone who was pennyless when he died get invited to stay at rich hotels?

[OldFartTom]

Things have changed since my last post on this question.

My answer to the original question, knowing anyone who tested positive in this wave had been "No", but all of a sudden is..

Yes, quite a lot of people, all indirectly, like kids at my son's school, friends' family members, etc

[OldFartTom]

Things have changed again since my last post only hours ago today, more and more people I know.. And the person I heard just now is a real: wear mask/gloves/hide indoors, only occasionally go out person. I just can't imagine how she got it

It's definitely contagious!

[Plateauplower]

Things have changed again since my last post only hours ago today, more and more people I know.. And the person I heard just now is a real: wear mask/gloves/hide indoors, only occasionally go out person. I just can't imagine how she got it

It's definitely contagious!

I know several people who tested positive and pretty much stayed locked inside since March unless it was to venture out for essentials practically wearing level A hazmat gear. Can you imagine if it were as deadly as the flu of 1918? There’d be like 3.5 million dead by now in the US alone, population adjusted. Maybe more as contagious as it seems to be.

Of course if they were digging trenches to dump the bodies in, I think people would be a little more compliant with the public health recommendations.