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  1. #1
    Registered User DukeOfWoodBerry's Avatar
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    A question for those who think Trump is going to win because of early voting numbers

    I see a lot of people talking about how Trump is in good shape because Democrats early vote lead is less than expected. For those familiar with the numbers is this due to higher Republican turnout than expected or lower Democratic turnout?

    If it's higher Republican turnout, I would slow down on planning the reelection party. I'd consider the possibility that more Republicans decided to vote early than expected and Trump won't dominate election day. There are only so many Republican voters in this country, only so much water from that well. Now if it's less Democratic turnout, then I'd be excited because I don't think they're turning out in big numbers on election day.
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    Registered User leafs43's Avatar
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    The polls themselves show that Republicans are 6 more times likely to vote in person versus mail in voting.

    Democrats needed a substantial lead going into the final stretch because republicans are going to show up on Nov 3rd in higher numbers.
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    Registered User BunkerBoy's Avatar
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    The Democrats have been turning out a lot of voters that didnt vote in 2016. The Democrat totals are a mix of consistent voters, low propensity voters, and first time voters. Lets not forget that Biden is beating Trump considerably with Independents.

    Democrat numbers are not purely made up of the normal base.


    I dont know if its the same story for the Republicans, but I havent seen any stories about it so far.
    I will keep looking around though.
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    Originally Posted by leafs43 View Post
    The polls themselves show that Republicans are 6 more times likely to vote in person versus mail in voting.

    Democrats needed a substantial lead going into the final stretch because republicans are going to show up on Nov 3rd in higher numbers.
    You didn't answer the question. There are only so many Republicans. I think we all expect a high Republican turnout, but if Republicans are voting early then maybe they aren't going to dominate election day as hard. Maybe that polling is wrong (shocking right?) I voted by mail, not because of the virus, just because it's easy and I don't need to wait in line. Maybe other Republicans changed their minds since they were polled about mail ins.
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    This is why GOP will win:




    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox...tion-gains.amp



    Since 2016 the GOP has netted +200k registrations over the Dems.

    Edit: that’s just in FL.
    Last edited by DeshaunWatson; 10-29-2020 at 04:51 AM.
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    You people aren't even hiding your attempts at voter fraud anymore.
    #chaga_gangsta
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    I see a lot of people talking about how Trump is in good shape because Democrats early vote lead is less than expected. For those familiar with the numbers is this due to higher Republican turnout than expected or lower Democratic turnout?

    If it's higher Republican turnout, I would slow down on planning the reelection party. I'd consider the possibility that more Republicans decided to vote early than expected and Trump won't dominate election day. There are only so many Republican voters in this country, only so much water from that well. Now if it's less Democratic turnout, then I'd be excited because I don't think they're turning out in big numbers on election day.
    Voter turnout is way up for both parties in absolute numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise with the pandemic and all. In these states that are being analyzed, except PA, the rise in GOP early vote is greater than the rise in Dem.

    Looking at party registration for a "lead" in early voting is kind of a red herring, though. 40% of the country are independent. The person who wins independents is going to win, and that not only changes cycle to cycle (which is why they are independent in the first place...), but it also typically varies by state.
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    You didn't answer the question. There are only so many Republicans. I think we all expect a high Republican turnout, but if Republicans are voting early then maybe they aren't going to dominate election day as hard. Maybe that polling is wrong (shocking right?) I voted by mail, not because of the virus, just because it's easy and I don't need to wait in line. Maybe other Republicans changed their minds since they were polled about mail ins.
    It does answer the question.

    Take PA for example.

    Half the state hasn't even voted yet, and democrats are more likely to vote early. Between now and Nov 3, if Trump captures 7 out of 10 votes in PA, he is going to run away with the state.
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    Originally Posted by DeshaunWatson View Post
    This is why GOP will win:




    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox...tion-gains.amp



    Since 2016 the GOP has netted +200k registrations over the Dems.

    Edit: that’s just in FL.
    Thats a good pickup, but they are still down by 134k registrations to Dems.

    Turnout for both parties will be increased, but think its fairly obvious that hatred for Trump is the single biggest motivating factor in this election.

    The independent vote will be key to winning the state, and Biden will have a double digit advantage in that category.

    Simply put, the Republicans need to turn out more of their voters than the Democrats do to have a chance, and Im not sure they will even do that.
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    Originally Posted by jamalfudge View Post
    You people aren't even hiding your attempts at voter fraud anymore.
    What do YOU mean, by YOU people?



    oh, wait, wrong thread...
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    Voter turnout is way up for both parties in absolute numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise with the pandemic and all. In these states that are being analyzed, except PA, the rise in GOP early vote is greater than the rise in Dem.

    Looking at party registration for a "lead" in early voting is kind of a red herring, though. 40% of the country are independent. The person who wins independents is going to win, and that not only changes cycle to cycle (which is why they are independent in the first place...), but it also typically varies by state.
    Nope, Romney won independents and still lost the election so this stuff does matter.
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    There is also the issue that of the returned ballots so far, both parties have some visibility in who is voting.


    Right now, democrats are only recapturing the same votes that voted for Hilary in 2016. It's actually republicans who are capturing the newer voters and those that didn't cast ballots in 2016.

    Both campaigns know this. Why do you think the Biden campaign is freaking out and closing down offices and giving up?
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    Originally Posted by leafs43 View Post
    The polls themselves show that Republicans are 6 more times likely to vote in person versus mail in voting.

    Democrats needed a substantial lead going into the final stretch because republicans are going to show up on Nov 3rd in higher numbers.
    I'm waiting until election day to make sure my vote actually gets counted...
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    Registered User DukeOfWoodBerry's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by leafs43 View Post
    There is also the issue that of the returned ballots so far, both parties have some visibility in who is voting.


    Right now, democrats are only recapturing the same votes that voted for Hilary in 2016. It's actually republicans who are capturing the newer voters and those that didn't cast ballots in 2016.

    Both campaigns know this. Why do you think the Biden campaign is freaking out and closing down offices and giving up?
    Why would they give up lol? Even if they felt they were in trouble, they're not giving up.
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    Why would they give up lol? Even if they felt they were in trouble, they're not giving up.
    Biden campaign offices are ghost towns across the country.

    Typically these stay open until election day to try and get out the vote.


    This is the canary in the coal mine.
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    Originally Posted by chaunce54 View Post
    I'm waiting until election day to make sure my vote actually gets counted...
    What kind of pleb state do you live in.

    I voted by mail in MD. They told me when my ballot was created, sent to me, and when they received it. Constant updates from the MD Board of Elections. Actually a pretty well run system from what I can see.
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    Originally Posted by leafs43 View Post
    There is also the issue that of the returned ballots so far, both parties have some visibility in who is voting.


    Right now, democrats are only recapturing the same votes that voted for Hilary in 2016. It's actually republicans who are capturing the newer voters and those that didn't cast ballots in 2016.

    Both campaigns know this. Why do you think the Biden campaign is freaking out and closing down offices and giving up?
    What data are you basing any of this on? lol
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    Originally Posted by chaunce54 View Post
    I'm waiting until election day to make sure my vote actually gets counted...
    Huge number of Trump supporters doing this. Huge. If dems don't go into next week with a big lead they are in trouble
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    Originally Posted by BearyManilowe View Post
    What kind of pleb state do you live in.

    I voted by mail in MD. They told me when my ballot was created, sent to me, and when they received it. Constant updates from the MD Board of Elections. Actually a pretty well run system from what I can see.
    Oh, OK...


    Did they confirm that it was counted for the candidates you chose?


    And there's the rub...



    Originally Posted by gixxer0.6g View Post
    Huge number of Trump supporters doing this. Huge. If dems don't go into next week with a big lead they are in trouble

    Yep, and thanks to all the early voting, I probably won't even have to stand in line for an hour
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    Originally Posted by BearyManilowe View Post
    What kind of pleb state do you live in.

    I voted by mail in MD. They told me when my ballot was created, sent to me, and when they received it. Constant updates from the MD Board of Elections. Actually a pretty well run system from what I can see.
    Hogan runs a tight ship. I'd love to see him on the GOP ticket next time.
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    Originally Posted by chaunce54 View Post
    I'm waiting until election day to make sure my vote actually gets counted...
    I early voted in person pretty confident on that one
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    It's possible that R turnout could slow down. But it's also possible it is a sign of low D turnout.

    Think of it this way. Would you rather your team not score a touchdown in the opening kick off because you think it might "slow down" the scoring?
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    Originally Posted by chaunce54 View Post
    Oh, OK...


    Did they confirm that it was counted for the candidates you chose?


    And there's the rub...






    Yep, and thanks to all the early voting, I probably won't even have to stand in line for an hour
    Holy fuk dude take the tin foil off. At the end of the day my vote doesn't much matter for the Presidential election as MD is going blue per usual and my Representative seat isn't switching over any time soon (despite the highly populated Democratic areas getting crushed by COVID) but I did need to vote yes to Question 2 so that's more what I'm worried about.

    But come on man. BoE has my ballot, confirmed receipt and it's in the pile with every other ballot cast whether it's in person or by mail. Take the tin foil off for 30 seconds.
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    Based on early numbers Trump takes every swing state except PA IMO. The PA ballot numbers are really strange and I don't understand why that state is so different than the others regarding ballot requests/returns.
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    I believe it was yesterday Rush was reading a story about how if there is record turn out Trump has an 80+% chance of winning.
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    Originally Posted by gixxer0.6g View Post
    Huge number of Trump supporters doing this. Huge. If dems don't go into next week with a big lead they are in trouble


    Agree with this.

    My personal experience...
    People I know in PA... no Biden voters, all showing up election day. About 30 people I know in NJ dropping off ballots election day or just before.All Trump. NY voters, including previous Never Trumpers... going election day. Etc
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    Originally Posted by BearyManilowe View Post
    What kind of pleb state do you live in.

    I voted by mail in MD. They told me when my ballot was created, sent to me, and when they received it. Constant updates from the MD Board of Elections. Actually a pretty well run system from what I can see.
    MD needs ID laws.

    Voter fraud is so astoundingly easy... not that it matters much because the city makes us blue no matter what.
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    Originally Posted by Belome View Post
    MD needs ID laws.

    Voter fraud is so astoundingly easy... not that it matters much because the city makes us blue no matter what.
    Its the whole belt. PG-MoCo-Balt will not be usurped so the state is inherently blue. It starts to get red on the perimeter counties but there isnt the population out there to compete with that main stretch from DC-Baltimore. Though the Eastern Shore race with Harris might be interesting to watch, anecdotal I know but i know a handful of people from the ES that are more or less done with Harris so he's catching backlash simply because people want new blood.

    I agree with needing ID laws. It really should just be basic principle. If lower income people can feed their liquor habit then they can get an ID to vote, I've yet to see actual proof that requiring an ID suppresses legal voting.

    Realistically the only point for voting at the Presidential Election is to get your votes in on the proposals.
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    Originally Posted by IAMBEE View Post
    I believe it was yesterday Rush was reading a story about how if there is record turn out Trump has an 80+% chance of winning.
    Rush probably thought Romney was going to win. Predictions from guys like him and Hannity aren't credible.
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    Originally Posted by BearyManilowe View Post
    Its the whole belt. PG-MoCo-Balt will not be usurped so the state is inherently blue. It starts to get red on the perimeter counties but there isnt the population out there to compete with that main stretch from DC-Baltimore. Though the Eastern Shore race with Harris might be interesting to watch, anecdotal I know but i know a handful of people from the ES that are more or less done with Harris so he's catching backlash simply because people want new blood.

    I agree with needing ID laws. It really should just be basic principle. If lower income people can feed their liquor habit then they can get an ID to vote, I've yet to see actual proof that requiring an ID suppresses legal voting.

    Realistically the only point for voting at the Presidential Election is to get your votes in on the proposals.
    Would you support all citizens being registered to vote at 18 and receiving a state ID that proves their identity?
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