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  1. #91
    Registered User Abzu's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    This is probably the dumbest post you've ever made, and there are a lot to choose from. Lol @ Googling how betting lines work and then coming to that conclusion, derp.

    If you're so confident on Trump winning, will you lay me 10-1? Ah, see...?


    You're exposing yourself.

    Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.

    If someone where to give you 10 to 1 that would mean that they believe Trump wins at least 95%, Trumps odds would be -1000, meaning you have to bet $1000 to win $100.

    You can think Trump wins 60% of the time and still "feel confident about him winning", very few people win anything 95% of the time.

    If you though Trump won 60% of the time or -150, why would they take your offer to pay -1000?

    If you're offering +1000 on Trump then I'll take that all day.
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  2. #92
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    Originally Posted by Abzu View Post
    You're exposing yourself.

    Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.

    If someone where to give you 10 to 1 that would mean that they believe Trump wins at least 95%, Trumps odds would be -1000, meaning you have to bet $1000 to win $100. You can think Trump wins 60% of the time and still "feel confident about him winning", if you though Trump won 60% of the time or -150, why would they take your offer to pay -1000?
    He is already completely exposed as a fraud'n tard.
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  3. #93
    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Abzu View Post
    You're exposing yourself.

    Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.

    If someone where to give you 10 to 1 that would mean that they believe Trump wins at least 95%, Trumps odds would be -1000, meaning you have to bet $1000 to win $100. You can think Trump wins 60% of the time and still "feel confident about him winning", if you though Trump won 60% of the time or -150, why would they take your offer to pay -1000? If you're offering +1000 on Trump then I'll take that all day.
    Point missed. The whole point is he would never offer -1000, derp. He literally suggested that +170 doesn't reflect anything on Trump's odds because bookmakers want to make a profit after all bets have been paid.
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  4. #94
    Registered User Abzu's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    Where? I see.
    Trump +125
    Biden -165

    I will throw down at Trump +170.
    Exchanges had some super ridiculous odds beyond +170

    You have to look to around everywhere

    Books are not the end all be all

    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    Point missed. The whole point is he would never offer -1000, derp. He literally suggested that +170 doesn't reflect anything on Trump's odds because bookmakers want to make a profit after all bets have been paid.
    Lol

    He's right.

    Books set the opening line to get the most even action.

    The public then moves the line from there to where it closes.

    You usually make money in gambling by betting against the public for obvious reasons.

    No one would ever offer you -1000 because it would most often be stupid to play a -1000, I've never bet on a -1000 and I've been gambling for nearly a decade.
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  5. #95
    mic dropper pondus_levo's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    There's a pandemic, remember??? It's also getting worse than it's ever been. It's also going to be a key reason why your boy is going to lose.
    Stop reading liberal fearmongering news. The spread was NEVER going to be stopped. ALl we can hope for is to slow it. YOU CANNOT STOP THIS.

    I'm in a location in CA that was locked down FIRST and we are still the ONLY county that is the most locked down. Our spike didn't happen until September, which was extremly low comparitively, and has been slowly going down since then. Guess what, we have one of the largets populations north of SF and lowest death ratio in the country. We also happen to be one of the healthiest. Cases do not = deaths.

    Stop the fear mongering. The initial spike in april was caused by the 5 major dem govenors forcing the sick back into nursing homes. 68% of ALL deaths. 68% ****ing percent, caused by FIVE govenors. Not a single emergency room was ever overwhelmed. Trumps emergency mobile hospitals wer NEVER even used.
    Last edited by pondus_levo; 10-26-2020 at 11:53 AM.
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  6. #96
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    Now do the other 50 polls with trump losing
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  7. #97
    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pondus_levo View Post
    Stop reading liberal fearmongering news. The spread was NEVER going to be stopped. ALl we can hope for is to slow it. YOU CANNOT STOP THIS.

    I'm in a location in CA that was locked down FIRST and we are still the ONLY county that is the most locked down. Our spike didn't happen until September, which was extremly low comparitively, and has been slowly going down since then. Guess what, we have one of the lowest death ratio in the country. Cases do not = deaths.

    Stop the fear mongering. The initial spike in april was caused by the 5 major dem govenors forcing the sick back into nursing homes. 68% of ALL deaths. 68% ****ing percent, caused by FIVE govenors.
    Yeah, and stop listening to Trump. Quarter million dead - just fear-mongering.
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  8. #98
    Vertical Taco Inspector terrorgunt's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pondus_levo View Post
    Stop reading liberal fearmongering news. The spread was NEVER going to be stopped. ALl we can hope for is to slow it. YOU CANNOT STOP THIS.

    I'm in a location in CA that was locked down FIRST and we are still the ONLY county that is the most locked down. Our spike didn't happen until September, which was extremly low comparitively, and has been slowly going down since then. Guess what, we have one of the lowest death ratio in the country. Cases do not = deaths.

    Stop the fear mongering. The initial spike in april was caused by the 5 major dem govenors forcing the sick back into nursing homes. 68% of ALL deaths. 68% ****ing percent, caused by FIVE govenors.
    You're arguing with someone who possesses a subhuman IQ.
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  9. #99
    mic dropper pondus_levo's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    Yeah, and stop listening to Trump. Quarter million dead - just fear-mongering.
    They died WITH covid, not FROM covid. You stupid ****.

    If covid is so bad, explain to me why we are going to end the year with total deaths equaling 2010 levels, when we have 20 million more people than 2010?

    Because the truth is only 6% of covid deaths were actually from covid. It's litterally 4x less deadly than the flu.

    Trump is litterally the ONLY one ACTUALLY looking at the science. You and the libs are just mad he is too smart for you.
    Last edited by pondus_levo; 10-26-2020 at 11:59 AM.
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  10. #100
    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Abzu View Post

    No one would ever offer you -1000 because it would most often be stupid to play a -1000, I've never bet on a -1000 and I've been gambling for nearly a decade.
    Still?? That was the whole point. It's called making a point by posing a rhetorical question. I thought the "Ah, see...?" would have driven home the point, but I guess the aspies are congregating today.
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  11. #101
    Registered User sduego's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BigBallsMcgee View Post
    Now do the other 50 polls with trump losing
    Those polls blew it in 2016 and 2018.
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  12. #102
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    Originally Posted by BigBallsMcgee View Post
    Now do the other 50 polls with trump losing
    You mean the same polls that said Hillary would win in 2016? LOL.
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  13. #103
    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pondus_levo View Post
    They died WITH covid, not FROM covid. You stupid ****.

    If covid os so bad, explain to me why we are going to end the year with total deaths equaling 2010 levels, when we have 20 million more people than 2010?
    Yeah, and a guy with AIDS that dies at age 25 with pneumonia dies WITH AIDS, not FROM AIDS. ****ing logic of partisan ****s.
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  14. #104
    Vertical Taco Inspector terrorgunt's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    Yeah, and a guy with AIDS that dies at age 25 with pneumonia dies WITH AIDS, not FROM AIDS. ****ing logic of partisan ****s.
    Sorry about your boyfriend, son.
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  15. #105
    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by terrorgunt View Post
    Sorry about your boyfriend, son.
    Imagine being 50+ posting like a 14yo.
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  16. #106
    mic dropper pondus_levo's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    Yeah, and a guy with AIDS that dies at age 25 with pneumonia dies WITH AIDS, not FROM AIDS. ****ing logic of partisan ****s.
    Tell me the truth. How scared are you that you or someone in your family will actually die from Covid?

    Also answer me this. If Trump is doing such a bad job, how do you explain that we only have 7 million cases when at this time in 2009 under Obama/Biden we had 60 million cases of H1N1?

    >The count is right and Trump is doing an excelent job keeping our numbers low.
    >The count is wrong and Trump is doing a terrible job, it's way more wide spread and not as deadly as the "scientists" are saying it is.

    Pick one.
    Last edited by pondus_levo; 10-26-2020 at 12:09 PM.
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  17. #107
    Registered User Abzu's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    Still?? That was the whole point. It's called making a point by posing a rhetorical question. I thought the "Ah, see...?" would have driven home the point, but I guess the aspies are congregating today.
    That is no point at all.

    You're saying he won't do something stupid, ok, well, what's your "whole" point?

    To say he isnt confident in a Trump victory? Just because he is not 95% confident does not mean that he is not confident.

    You know what?

    I don't care.

    Carry on.
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  18. #108
    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Abzu View Post
    That is no point at all.

    You're saying he won't do something stupid, ok, well, what's your "whole" point?

    To say he isnt confident in a Trump victory? Just because he is not 95% confident does not mean that he is not confident.

    You know what?

    I don't care.

    Carry on.
    I never said he wasn't confident in Trump winning. In fact, he thinks Trump is 99% going to win, yet he won't ever offer 10-1, derp.
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  19. #109
    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pondus_levo View Post
    Tell me the truth. How scared are you that you or someone in your family will actually die from Covid?

    Also answer me this. If Trump is doing such a bad job, how do you explain that we only have 7 million cases when at this time in 2009 under Obama/Biden we had 60 million cases of H1N1?

    >The count is right and Trump is doing an excelent job keeping our numbers low.
    >The count is wrong and Trump is doing a terrible job, it's way more wide spread and not as deadly as the "scientists" are saying it is.

    Pick one.
    Just lmfao. H1N1 wasn't nearly as dangerous, so infections didn't need to be controlled to this extent.

    Is this where you're going to tell us that H1N1 was more deadly than covid even after just saying 60 million infections and only 12K deaths?
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  20. #110
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    Just lmfao. H1N1 wasn't nearly as dangerous, so infections didn't need to be controlled to this extent.

    Is this where you're going to tell us that H1N1 was more deadly than covid even after just saying 60 million infections and only 12K deaths?
    It was by pure luck that it wasn't more deadly. The Obama/Biden admin did absolutely NOTHING to stop it, whcih is why it spread so fast.

    So, can you now actually anwser my questions, instead of deflecting?

    How scared are you that you or someone in your family will actually die from Covid?

    If Trump is doing such a bad job, how do you explain that we only have 7 million cases when at this time in 2009 under Obama/Biden we had 60 million cases of H1N1?

    Please, I'd love to hear your explanation without bringing up deaths.
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    538:



    I don't think it's really worth talking about individual polls from firms that have a poor track record and I wouldn't particularly trust to act in good faith.
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    Just lmfao. H1N1 wasn't nearly as dangerous, so infections didn't need to be controlled to this extent.

    Is this where you're going to tell us that H1N1 was more deadly than covid even after just saying 60 million infections and only 12K deaths?
    How many children died of H1N1 versus COVID-19 so far?

    Idiot.
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    Originally Posted by NYPat View Post
    Lol Rasmussen. They oversample "likely voters" aka registered Republicans.

    Inb4 hurr durr they were right in 2016. This isn't 2016 and "likely voters" this election are Biden voters.
    and just like that, you dont believe in polls anymore....
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    Originally Posted by z4v4 View Post
    Imagine being 50+ posting like a 14yo.
    Imagine telling people you're rich, retired, and a musician while being none of those things.
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    Originally Posted by DynamicDot View Post
    You mean the same polls that said Hillary would win in 2016? LOL.
    Yes, 2016 isnt the only election thats ever happened.
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    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pondus_levo View Post
    It was by pure luck that it wasn't more deadly. The Obama/Biden admin did absolutely NOTHING to stop it, whcih is why it spread so fast.

    So, can you now actually anwser my questions, instead of deflecting?

    How scared are you that you or someone in your family will actually die from Covid?

    If Trump is doing such a bad job, how do you explain that we only have 7 million cases when at this time in 2009 under Obama/Biden we had 60 million cases of H1N1?

    Please, I'd love to hear your explanation.
    I already answered your H1N1 weakass deflection, and your retort is "luck of the draw," just lmao.

    Not too worried about anyone in my family even catching covid because we aren't morons.
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  27. #117
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    30% is not "astronomically small" by anyone definition. Here are the final RCP polling averages from 2016:

    MI: Clinton +3.4% (outcome Trump 0.3%)
    OH: Trump +3.5% (outcome Trump 8.5%)
    WI: Clinton +6.5% (outcome Trump 0.7%)
    PA: Clinton +1.9% (outcome Trump 0.7%)
    FL: Trump 0.2% (outcome Trump 1.2%)

    So, OH was already predicted to flip to Trump and FL was more or less a 50-50 tossup. PA and MI were within polling MoE and were listed as toss-up on the RCP final map:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html

    WI is the only state where there was a real miss that was predicted to go to Clinton. 538 correctly processed that information and said " looks close - Clinton at a small advantage but Trump could still pull off the upset".

    Plus, these results are not all independent. The results are highly correlated because the pollsters missed bigly on one specific demographic - historically Dem small towns in rust belt states that flipped 25 points from Obama to Trump. These polling models have credibility calculations built in to temper wild swings in demographics with small sample sizes and this one happened to not be sampling error and happened to be significant enough to give Trump PA, MI, and WI. The pollsters were off by 3-7% in total in those states (and OH as well, although that was just understating Trump's margin there) because of not fully recognizing the extent of the swing in that one demographic.
    So are the polls accurate or was there a sampling error significant enough to result in outcomes out of the confidence interval for a number of states?

    IF trump has a 15, 20, 20 percent chance of winning each of those states the probability of winning all of them is not 30%
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  28. #118
    Registered User BigBallsMcgee's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pondus_levo View Post
    Tell me the truth. How scared are you that you or someone in your family will actually die from Covid?

    Also answer me this. If Trump is doing such a bad job, how do you explain that we only have 7 million cases when at this time in 2009 under Obama/Biden we had 60 million cases of H1N1?

    >The count is right and Trump is doing an excelent job keeping our numbers low.
    >The count is wrong and Trump is doing a terrible job, it's way more wide spread and not as deadly as the "scientists" are saying it is.

    Pick one.
    h1n1 had a much lower fatality so it didnt matter. Nobody cared.

    To use that as an excuse for 200k dead is retarded. And I dont even put much of it on trump, but the comparision is stupid no matter who you blame
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  29. #119
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    If Rasmussen has him up, he's way up.

    In regard to the people already voting, they were voting for Biden anyway. Where Trump is going to make up his ground is with the black vote. The people who now realize the benefits he's brought to the black community especially MEN. Trump will get a bounce.
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  30. #120
    SillieBazzillie Alt #z4 z4v4's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by terrorgunt View Post
    Imagine telling people you're rich, retired, and a musician while being none of those things.
    Uhmm, okay, son. Don't forget to empty the dishwasher later.
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