Biden up 3 in new Texas poll

[Austanian]

theres always a difference in polls dumbba$$. You take as many polls as possible and average them to get the best projection

Muh aggregate… Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, VA, OH...

[scheal]

Maybe you haven't been here long enough to remember, but If you were in back in 2008, the vast majority of us here were rather gung-ho for Ron Paul. Its always been that way around here. I voted for (wrote in) Ron Paul in 08 and in '12, and voted for Johnson in '16 and voted for Jorgensen for this election.

Criticizing trump doesn't make someone a liberal. FFS trump is hardly a conservative himself. He's just towing a party line and says whatever riles up his base. A true conservative candidate would have been Rand Paul or Cruz, but you people wanted to troll the world electing train-wreck trump. If he loses and we get another 8 years of liberal reign this will be all your fault for not electing a sensible republican.

Its your fault for wasting your vote on a pro illegal cun7 like JJ

[skier!]

Cruz only won Texas by 3 points in 2018. More people have already voted in Texas than voted for Trump in 2016. Trump will probably win it, but not by more than 3 points.

Trump - 45
Biden - 48

Clinton never led a poll in Texas, much less a poll 10 days before the election.

If Trump would’ve had a semi-decent campaign, then Trump and his supporters wouldn’t need to desperately hope this laptop story will save them. Now they are throwing spaghetti on the wall hoping something sticks (fracking is yet another Hail Mary). It’s like they just realized there’s an election going on just last week.

Source: https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalsci...tyler-poll.pdf

I'm a statistician dude and the margin of error is 3.22%, so that means we can substract 6.44% from Biden so that means Trump could be winning. This is nothing but media bias, probably research mistakes in the sampling, etc. In short this means nothing. But getting this out in the press is just bad media for trump.

[navid93]

Polls are not the end-all be-all. This poll doesn’t mean “Biden is going to win by 3.” The fact I have to explain this to you is the reason why you will lose, and why you will always lose.

They don’t understand confidence intervals

But no, Biden will not win Texas Lmao

Lol at negging me for this. You really think Biden’s gonna win Texas?

[aal04]

good ol texas

https://twitter.com/realtorofoz/stat...483323904?s=19

[RamataKahn]

The point is it'll be closer than it ever should be. Lmao at drumpcels

No, it won't, because the polls are wrong.

[wickedman]

That you trust the polling aggregate.

Refer to post 94.

At least SurveyMonkey was close : ).

[Stizzel]

Cruz only won Texas by 3 points in 2018. More people have already voted in Texas than voted for Trump in 2016. Trump will probably win it, but not by more than 3 points.

Trump - 45
Biden - 48

Clinton never led a poll in Texas, much less a poll 10 days before the election.

If Trump would’ve had a semi-decent campaign, then Trump and his supporters wouldn’t need to desperately hope this laptop story will save them. Now they are throwing spaghetti on the wall hoping something sticks (fracking is yet another Hail Mary). It’s like they just realized there’s an election going on just last week.

Source: https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalsci...tyler-poll.pdf

On a scale from 1 to cruz missile how finished is drumpf?

[Austanian]

They don’t understand confidence intervals

But no, Biden will not win Texas Lmao

Lol at negging me for this. You really think Biden’s gonna win Texas?

Okay stats pro...

What percentage of the time would you expect the results of the 2016 election to be replicated IF the polls were accurate? Keep in mind this was never about the popular national vote, but the independent samples in various battle ground states.

People say the polls in 2016 were accurate because the national spread just happened to be with in the confidence interval, while they blew battle ground state after battle ground state.

[bubba g]

Probably more of a statement on how bad the pollsters are. They typically over sample democrats, and republicans typically don't answer pollsters, or lie to them... me, and all of my conservative friends lie to pollsters...

If Texas does turn blue in 2024 it will be from the flood of liberals pouring in from the disasters of a states they created by voting in democrats..

[Jrd86]

This is how You know the polls are ****...just like in 2016. Trafalgar has the most realistic polls at this point. They also called the 2016 election precisely all the way down to the electoral college vote total.

Texas trafalgar poll:


I expect Trump to pull ahead even more in the coming days. But this is far more realistic than what we are seeing in the mainstream polls (the same polls that had hillary winning bigly in 2016).

[kcadrenalin]

I'm old enough to remember the polls showing Beto beating Cruz a week out from the 2018 election.
Everyone in Texas was like wtf is this chit?

[Trapstar4.4]

biden still up +8 nationally. at this point in 2016 hillary took a dip and was only up +3.

the +3 range is where youre looking at potential for pop vote victory couple with EC loss. im hoping trump cant close that gap.

[Austanian]

biden still up +8 nationally. at this point in 2016 hillary took a dip and was only up +3.

the +3 range is where youre looking at potential for pop vote victory couple with EC loss. im hoping trump cant close that gap.

That is the point... the polls are obviously wrong and people deliberately lying along with an inability to capture the working class white vote is very problematic.

Biden is not up 8% and I would throw a couple grand against that spread.

[BigBallsMcgee]

That is the point... the polls are obviously wrong and people deliberately lying along with an inability to capture the working class white vote is very problematic.

Biden is not up 8% and I would throw a couple grand against that spread.

the margin of error on +8 is still too high for trump. the same error of 2016 is still a biden win

[BigBallsMcgee]

Muh aggregate… Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, VA, OH...

2016 isnt the only election to ever happen you fuking retards holy s*it. I really hope you idiots bet big on this.

[Austanian]

2016 isnt the only election to ever happen you fuking retards holy s*it. I really hope you idiots bet big on this.

It is the only election to contain Trump and COVID fear is drastically different.

Poll after poll in all the swing states drastically underpredicted the Trump vote indicating a sampling error. I can't believe it has gotten any better with the BLM riots.

Even you don't believe the 8% is accurate. Betters sure as **** don't. The markets represent Biden with a 2-3% popular vote lead with a 55% chance of winning. If you are confident you should bet big because you are getting drastically higher payouts than you should if the polls are accurate.

[Trapstar4.4]

That is the point... the polls are obviously wrong and people deliberately lying along with an inability to capture the working class white vote is very problematic.

Biden is not up 8% and I would throw a couple grand against that spread.

again, whether you believe the polls are not, you really need them inside the margin of error to open up 2016's mismatching outcomes (pop / EC vote).

[ViolentZ]

the lone star state is coming home fellas

[TonyTriangles]

liberal NPR says trump is leading in texas. surely they are wrong right guys?

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/92764...ntial-campaign

[EmmaW4tson]

biden still up +8 nationally. at this point in 2016 hillary took a dip and was only up +3.

the +3 range is where youre looking at potential for pop vote victory couple with EC loss. im hoping trump cant close that gap.

[Ikeman83]

38% dem to 31%rep

It's time to stop

[kcadrenalin]

again, whether you believe the polls are not, you really need them inside the margin of error to open up 2016's mismatching outcomes (pop / EC vote).

If a poll is weighting Dem +8 or Dem +11 the margin of error doesn't mean chit. The very same polls that were purposely wrong in 2016 are going to be wrong again in 2020. Many are already making excuses as to why they might be wrong.

[lsiberian]

Trump has a huge voting block of support in Texas. People are underestimating him again.

[Austanian]

again, whether you believe the polls are not, you really need them inside the margin of error to open up 2016's mismatching outcomes (pop / EC vote).

I don't need the polls to say anything with or without the margin of error. As I believe they have a sampling and collection bias that is shifting their predictions considerably.

I do need the REAL margins for Biden to be <+3% for Trump, to win.

Lets take Florida for example. 538 has Biden at +2.2...
Why the fuk are the Betting markets putting Trump at -150...

This effectively means the money is putting Trump at +2.2%.

[NattyCory]

I tried finding trafalgar's predictions on the popular vote. Does anyone know if they have one?
Who was the most accurate on the popular vote in 2016? I need too make a prediction for one of my classes & I don't do Nate Silver. The guy speaks in his own book about biases in all the data but, then he thinks Biden is guaranteed too win the election just like 2016.

[OptimistPrime11]

Biden reminds me of the Walter Mondale election of 1984. Another Dem who got major endorsements from Globalists and left leaning newspapers and who showed being very close to Reagan in the polls.
The only problem was the enthusiasm for him was bottom of the barrel low. No one gave a **** about Walter Mondale.

He ended up losing in one of the biggest landslides in history.

[Jayarbie]

Biden reminds me of the Walter Mondale election of 1984. Another Dem who got major endorsements from Globalists and left leaning newspapers and who showed being very close to Reagan in the polls.
The only problem was the enthusiasm for him was bottom of the barrel low. No one gave a **** about Walter Mondale.

He ended up losing in one of the biggest landslides in history.

Walter Mondale was up by 5% with a week left in the campaign?!? Interdasting revision of actual history.

[Maestro]

Its your fault for wasting your vote on a pro illegal cun7 like JJ

Nope.

I know she wont win, which is why her policies don't matter but as a person she's leaps and bounds better than trump or biden.

[Maestro]

liberal NPR says trump is leading in texas. surely they are wrong right guys?

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/92764...ntial-campaign

I think the point is, this shouldn't even be news worthy. I'm sure texas is safe for republicans for 2020, but how long is that going to last? At the rate things are going its going to be a purple state like Florida for 2024 and 2028 and probable blue by 2032 especially with the influx of Californians coming in.