Oldcels, is 2020 as bad as 2008?

[DTRrex]

06-09 was actually an economic issue. 2020 is a political issue. Different aspects and criticisms. 06-09 was bad for housing market and legit valuation issues, 2020 there is no housing crisis or asset wide issues, but mass unemployment with certain tradies/hospitality areas due to political response.

Economic impact in 06-09 was due to overvaluing of assets (houses) and lack of equity. Impact was felt through defaults on mortgages as well as what were considered safe investments on the institutional side. Borrowers haven’t borrowed against their equity since then, current issues are related to unemployment for low / unskilled labor. They can shift focus and find jobs elsewhere, going from waiter to amazon warehouse worker.

06-09 is worse because it was an actual economic issue.

qft.

[powercage]

2020 is much worse

[katya422]

2008 was significantly deeper than your understanding of it, but your general idea is correct.

Oh, I was absolutely paying attention then. I was part of the peanut gallery on RGE Monitor (Roubini's blog) when a poster who went by Michael broke the news that they were going to let Lehman Brothers fail. Michael claimed he was in the building/part of the meetings going on.

I sent email w/links to various news items to people that I knew. The links are almost all worthless now. It never occurred to me to save an actual copy of the text of anything. I sent this email August 17, 2007-

Also an interesting read. I have read things like it in the last few months but this is pretty detailed. Over a year ago a guy on Escape America said that if you hear the word "derivatives" on the evening news go and buy all the toilet paper you can find. I do wonder if the amount of leverage is accurate...as in $1 million dollars leveraged up to $100 million.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1204.html

Notice this was posted in early June. I had read in May that mortgage credit would tighten up in July. Now Scott Burns was saying that he thinks the bottom of housing will be sometime next year.

Email sent Feb. 8, 2008:

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is gearing up for the prospect of a large bank failure. So double-check that all your deposits, including interest, are well within FDIC insurance limits.

FDIC data indicate that as of Sept. 30, there were 65 institutions with assets of $18.5 billion on its list of "problem" institutions. Barr would not elaborate on their sizes. Nor will the FDIC name the institutions.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...D&siteid=yhoof

[uwutm8]

Graduated in 2010 crew so things were starting to get better around then I think. Took me around 6 months of applying for jobs and finally got one. Was legit working at Jiffy lube making like $7/hr doing the most basic ****. My degree was in computer science lol. Making 6 figures now crew and actually not worried in the slightest what is about to come next. For the kids that is graduating around now...I feel you.

[DTRrex]

JFL @ MemeCop trying to have an opinion on economics.

Dude rolls in to every cop thread like he's the end-all-be-all authority and anyone not a cop has an irrelevant opinion.

Stay in your lane brah.

[whogotmuhbeers]

Fuk 2008 was a great year, don’t miss all the bullshyt I had to go through in my 20s though.

[katya422]

Memory lane. March 16, 2008:

BS sells at $2 a share to avoid bankruptcy.

Fed makes an emergency .25 rate cut on a Sunday.

Fed announces that it will lend directly to broker-dealers at the discount window.

Lehman Brothers is expected to be the next broker-dealer to fall.

Take cover y'all...if the central banks fail to pull us out of this, well it really really bad.

Post from RGE Monitor:

Fed Cuts Discount Rate, Says Dealers May Borrow (Update1)

By Scott Lanman

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve reduced the rate on direct loans to commercial banks by a quarter-point and said it will allow primary dealers to borrow at the rate in exchange for a ``broad range'' of investment-grade collateral.

The central bank, in a statement today in Washington, also extended the maximum term of discount-window loans to 90 days from 30 days. The Fed approved the financing arrangement announced by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bear Stearns Cos. JPMorgan separately agreed to buy Bear Stearns for about $2 a share.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...EW0&refer=home

[AgBrah]

2008 was worse, no question.

Right now you see a strong housing Sellers market. You see elevated costs for RV’s, dirtbikes and other high priced recreational items.

Asset prices haven’t flinched- land, etc.

In 2020, Free money getting sent out, additional unemployment. No safety net existed in 2008.




In 2008, houses were worth half. People couldn’t get rid of things quick enough. It was a race to the bottom. Absolute despair.


I try to explain it to younger people in real life and I can’t produce the words or narrative that captures the feeling of how truly fuked we were.

[BabcocksHair]

2008 was worse, no question.

Right now you see a strong housing Sellers market. You see elevated costs for RV’s, dirtbikes and other high priced recreational items.

Asset prices haven’t flinched- land, etc.

In 2020, Free money getting sent out, additional unemployment. No safety net existed in 2008.




In 2008, houses were worth half. People couldn’t get rid of things quick enough. It was a race to the bottom. Absolute despair.


I try to explain it to younger people in real life and I can’t produce the words or narrative that captures the feeling of how truly fuked we were.

2008 sounds crazy as a wagecel during that time. imagine being about 33-34 years old. graduate college in 2008 recover then get slammed again in 2020. Sad.

[AgBrah]

You have to understand that a vast majority that lost employment were retail and service workers (retail stores, hair dressers, bartenders, servers).

While it's not ok that that happened to them, from a GDP standpoint or overall intrinsic economy impact, it wasn't as detrimental as it seems. Yes, record unemployment, but a lot of that was temporary unemployment and it tended to impact lower wage workers and small business service proprietors. It didn't even come close to up-ending the economy the way the financial crisis did. Both situations suck but it's not even a close comparison.

I agree. 2008 crisis you saw companies laying off 70-80% of the workforce from the janitors all the way to COO’s. It was an absolute blood bath.

I remember neighborhoods where banks took houses back and mothballed the homes. Grass was dead, broken windows, etc. It was ugly.

Empty homes getting broken into, people rolling out the copper wire right through the drywall. AC’s getting stolen for the coils, etc.

[AgBrah]

2008 sounds crazy as a wagecel during that time. imagine being about 33-34 years old. graduate college in 2008 recover then get slammed again in 2020. Sad.

It was terrible man. Wasn’t just wagecels, you had skilled construction workers heading back into the fields to pick oranges as farm laborers.

You had multiple families in one houses, multi generations in one house.

[BabcocksHair]

It was terrible man. Wasn’t just wagecels, you had skilled construction workers heading back into the fields to pick oranges as farm laborers.

You had multiple families in one houses, multi generations in one house.

yikes man. despite it being a terrible year for me financially. I am glad to have lived through this. I had amassed some savings that I lost but nothing I won't recover from. moving forward ill always remember what happened to me this year and ill never let myself be put in this position again financially. i feel like if you get through a great depression, 2008, 2020 it will only make you stronger if you bounce back from it and significantly improve your risk management skills.

[IronProdigy]

You'll have high bias towards those that experienced 2008 but they don't realize that class of 2020 is royally fked just as much as class of 08

[climberbrah]

2020 if you had a decent job at a large corporate you have felt nothing. if anything you are enjoying the wfh life being able to netflix and do zoom calls from the comfort of your bedroom.

2008 everyone was panicking and people were getting laid off left and right at all types of top firms. lawyers were having their careers ended. tons of white collar pros getting absolutely butt raped. honestly there was a level of fear i havent felt since then. right now its more people being annoyed at stuff not being open or being mad at trump/deblasio etc.

[AgBrah]

You'll have high bias towards those that experienced 2008 but they don't realize that class of 2020 is royally fked just as much as class of 08

Untrue. In 2008 you had people getting thrown out of their houses, into the streets or their cars.

2020, you’re protected from that. On that alone, 2008 is worse.

[BabcocksHair]

2020 if you had a decent job at a large corporate you have felt nothing. if anything you are enjoying the wfh life being able to netflix and do zoom calls from the comfort of your bedroom.

2008 everyone was panicking and people were getting laid off left and right at all types of top firms. lawyers were having their careers ended. tons of white collar pros getting absolutely butt raped. honestly there was a level of fear i havent felt since then. right now its more people being annoyed at stuff not being open or being mad at trump/deblasio etc.

I think its largely industry dependent now. Anything travel/tourism related has been buttraped. some industries (tech/WFH related) have boomed. Commercial RE got rocked. hell even the salary cap in Pro Sports is getting capped. But I dont think we've seen the worse yet, the ultimate dagger to the economy is demand destruction, which if these lockdowns stay/worsen we will ultimately see. then you'll see every industry start to get dragged down.

[Sevenlionz]

I’m a youngcel but 2020 has been great, made more money than ever before comfort is still sky high etc. 2020 has seemed like a breeze to what 2008 seemed like. That was the only time I had ever seen my dad genuinely stressed out and that guy is stoic af.

[katya422]

You'll have high bias towards those that experienced 2008 but they don't realize that class of 2020 is royally fked just as much as class of 08

Seems like it so far. 2008 was bad, but didn't hit me all that hard personally- steady employment and not overextended.

Right now there still seems to be a fair number of people that believe the effects of the virus on the economy are going to clear up pretty quickly. I mean I wouldn't be mad if they are right.

To me it looks like the government is propping it up and at some point that won't be feasible anymore. These good jobs that have been safer so far may not stay safe if there is a drop in demand because the lower tier workers have no $$$ to make purchases.

But honestly I didn't think they would pull off the stuff they did in 2008 for this long so maybe it really doesn't matter. Just keep that printer humming...

[IronProdigy]

Untrue. In 2008 you had people getting thrown out of their houses, into the streets or their cars.

2020, you’re protected from that. On that alone, 2008 is worse.

You're only protected temporarily, you'll still owe everything through back rent, which means they'll be kicked out anyway once immunity is over. Honestly, my family was fine in 2008 growing up and I'm doing fine now in 2020. People that get hit hardest will be the loudest.

[climberbrah]

I’m a youngcel but 2020 has been great, made more money than ever before comfort is still sky high etc. 2020 has seemed like a breeze to what 2008 seemed like. That was the only time I had ever seen my dad genuinely stressed out and that guy is stoic af.

same, only time ive ever really seen my dad be worried.

[5x10]

Financially, 2007-2008 was way worse for me
I lost my high income job

In 2020, I’ve only 20% of my prior year income, which is still great

[Destor]

Was only mid 20s in 2008 but 2020 will be my highest earning year to date by a long shot

[threeoneg]

Way more jobs available now, imo. There’s literally signs every where I look. Now, well paying jobs may be a different story. You can barely be a tradie here. A&W pays 14 an hour.

[GainzMcgee]

2020 is a fukking trainwreck. 2008 wasnt that bad especially since it was those ******* house "flippers" getting hit mostly. The fed is *still* afraid to raise interest rates 12 years later lol not a good thing

[AlBHappy]

The first 2/3 of 2008 was great. Then the market crashed and we elected a Halfrican in the White House. 2009 sucked, took a 75k payout. Be a headhunter in that cesspool of an economy. Lost money in the market.

My kids were little and I was younger so 2008 is better. No Twitter, ******** was actually interesting, no PC/gender/Diversity BS.

Honestly I'm kind of numb at this point. In the last year, buried my father, started a new job, got my kid back on his feet. Then in a 10 day span, lost my father in law, my 15 year old dog and my sister in law.

Now have a 4 month old puppy who is the apple of my eye and my sons are thriving. As Elton John sings, "I'm still standing..."

[katya422]

The first 2/3 of 2008 was great. Then the market crashed and we elected a Halfrican in the White House. 2009 sucked, took a 75k payout. Be a headhunter in that cesspool of an economy. Lost money in the market.

My kids were little and I was younger so 2008 is better. No Twitter, ******** was actually interesting, no PC/gender/Diversity BS.

Honestly I'm kind of numb at this point. In the last year, buried my father, started a new job, got my kid back on his feet. Then in a 10 day span, lost my father in law, my 15 year old dog and my sister in law.

Now have a 4 month old puppy who is the apple of my eye and my sons are thriving. As Elton John sings, "I'm still standing..."

Rough year for sure.

Hopefully for most miscers the pandemic will just be stories to bore your grandkids with.

[maori-rap]

Economically 2008 was worse.

Other than that, 2020 is worse. Never before faced such food shortages or depression inducing lockdowns. Nevr seen the government exert so much control over it's population by using a 'pandemic' as a tool. The BLM riots and race issues haven't really affected me directly as a UK brah, but it has been a pain to see so much news dedicated to these issues and the chit-stirrers behind it all. Like the statues (in UK) being pulled down and defaced by far left hippy types and anarchists.

2008 was mild in comparison.

[rikugunchusa]

2020 is 2008 on steroids overall

[messomi]

2020 is 2008 on steroids overall

exactly 2008 is going to look like a picknick in a couple of years once we start to feel the real effects of what's happening.

[ltsOgre]

The job market never really recovered from 2008. Most of the problems in today's job market regarding quality and pay are more from 2008 and Reagan's policies, not the coronavirus.