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  1. #1
    Registered User ReyDelMundo's Avatar
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    Housing crisis incoming, best move to stack cash?

    Mortgage forbearance levels are far higher than I expected, 25% in some markets, locally we’re seeing a significant increase in eviction notifications, home prices are fairly high, supply is low.

    Eventually something has to give, I was banking on flipping my condo next year and buying a multiplex (4-6 units), but it seems as though further appreciation is unlikely. Is the move to stack cash for the time being and wait for the market to soften?
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    mreatassbtchslapr hoganrulz's Avatar
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    The gooberment won't let the house prices drop
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    My eyes are up here. hendrixfreak70's Avatar
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    We just added a room (which was an attic) to our house. Heated, cooled, closet, flooring, drywall, paint, cased out window/doors, and electrical. Spent 10k. Hoping it adds 40k at least to value. Did I dun gooft?

    Home value is around 370k at the moment, without adding the 480 sq ft to it.
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    Throbbing Member jamalfudge's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by hendrixfreak70 View Post
    We just added a room (which was an attic) to our house. Heated, cooled, closet, flooring, drywall, paint, cased out window/doors, and electrical. Spent 10k. Hoping it adds 40k at least to value. Did I dun gooft?

    Home value is around 370k at the moment, without adding the 480 sq ft to it.
    Unless I plan on completely moving from my town, I would rather put an addition onto my house than buy another one and sell mine. I think this will be a trend we'll see in the future, so I'd say well done...
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    Haha yeah Lefticle's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ReyDelMundo View Post
    Mortgage forbearance levels are far higher than I expected, 25% in some markets, locally we’re seeing a significant increase in eviction notifications, home prices are fairly high, supply is low.

    Eventually something has to give, I was banking on flipping my condo next year and buying a multiplex (4-6 units), but it seems as though further appreciation is unlikely. Is the move to stack cash for the time being and wait for the market to soften?
    Buying a multiplex is a good idea of the housing market tanks. More people will be renting, this rental rates usually increase.
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    Originally Posted by Lefticle View Post
    Buying a multiplex is a good idea of the housing market tanks. More people will be renting, this rental rates usually increase.
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    Constipated OffwhiteBrah's Avatar
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    whats mortgage forbearance ?
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    I dunno the answer OP, but I agree a massive shift is coming. Renters (and owners!) alike are squeezed to the absolute max in many places rn, saw an article that said 90% of renters in NYC couldnt make rent in August...yikes
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  9. #9
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    Originally Posted by hendrixfreak70 View Post
    We just added a room (which was an attic) to our house. Heated, cooled, closet, flooring, drywall, paint, cased out window/doors, and electrical. Spent 10k. Hoping it adds 40k at least to value. Did I dun gooft?

    Home value is around 370k at the moment, without adding the 480 sq ft to it.
    you don't want to price yourself out of the neighborhood so don't go crazy. for example few will buy a 550k house in a 375k neighborhood

    I added a bunch but I don't care. I can afford to lose some money 20 years from now for my dream environment . I'm not hurting financially.

    well I guessing should say less explosive growth. it is cali after all.
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    It’s your money. I would put at least some of it into something that holds up well during periods of high inflation though.

    Corporate real estate is on its way out especially if there’s another lockdown.

    Service industries and tourism are in the toilet

    Lots of small businesses going under

    Fed printing money to keep everything afloat so the big players have time to switch their position. Also temporary 0% interest rates on student loans and eviction protection in some states is helping to prop it up too.

    It’s not going to be good and the faster we bite the bullet the faster we can get through it.
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    Had plans on accumulating 5 to 10 rental properties over the next 10 years. Then the pandemic hit. Landlords getting boned. People blocking landlords from filing evictions at the courthouse. Screw that.

    Then all the usual landlord headaches that occur during normal times. Being a landlord and owning rental properties sounds awful to me now.
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    Seriously, I would put your cash component into a mix of gold, short-term government bonds, FDIC-insured CDs at three different banks bought on the market instead of over-the-counter. Should give you a good mix of protection.

    People buying long-term bonds right now trying to jack up their yield and improve correlations are going to be sorry if we have to raise rates to fight inflation, and rates aren't going to go down much further anytime soon even if we don't. There's not much upside in buying 20-year treasuries at 1% then having to sit on them to maturity.
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  14. #14
    Registered User ReyDelMundo's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Lefticle View Post
    Buying a multiplex is a good idea of the housing market tanks. More people will be renting, this rental rates usually increase.
    Let me clarify original post.

    Stacking cash to purchase multiplex especially if smaller real estate investors are stressed short term due to lower rent compliance. Rather than planning on current property to appreciate/keep current price level to liquidate and use as down payment.
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    Let's slot floppies keyboardworkout's Avatar
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    I'm all confused right now. Sitting in a paid off house worth about $450k and not sure what to do. Would like to sell and move to something with more land but not sure.
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    Serenity Now! FrankCostanza's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ReyDelMundo View Post
    Let me clarify original post.

    Stacking cash to purchase multiplex especially if smaller real estate investors are stressed short term due to lower rent compliance. Rather than planning on current property to appreciate/keep current price level to liquidate and use as down payment.
    I'm going to be buying a house in tahoe and rent it out 9 months out of the year. I'm waiting for real estate to shot the bed.
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  17. #17
    Registered User FAPhaggot's Avatar
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    The city I live in has 10 days of housing inventory on the market right now. Read an article the other day where even if we had a crash equivalent to '09, there would be 3 weeks of housing inventory on the market, and prices would barely budge (a healthy market is considered 4-6 months of inventory). The explosive growth feelsbadman.

    Srsly though, I don't think an '09 style housing crash is coming. For one, the permanent quantitative easing starting in '09 invented the TINA market - There Is No Alternative to stocks and real estate, because cash and bonds are now worthless. Now commercial real estate is looking pretty questionable as well, so the only places you can put your money and see growth are in stocks and homes. Can you say asset inflation, brahs.

    On top of that, there are chitloads of foreign money getting pumped into the west coast market coming from wealthy Chinese trying to hedge some of their funds overseas, and that demand is independent of the domestic economy. Buckets of foreign money pumps home prices into seven figures -> Boomer residents cash out on those seven figure valuations and flee inland -> home prices in the Front Range, Phoenix, Boise, Salt Lake, Vegas, Dallas and Austin are all driven up beyond the local economy's ability to pay for them. Home prices west of the Mississippi will continue to grow explosively regardless of a crash until that pump of Chinese money turns off.
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    The reason for the low supply is because of the shutdowns. So we had an exaggerated period where no housing is being built in certain areas and continuous population growth. If there is a "baby boom" associated with the lockdowns, plus ultra low fed interest rates for the foreseeable future... People have to live somewhere. Prices are going up.
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    Originally Posted by Seamanbeast View Post
    The reason for the low supply is because of the shutdowns. So we had an exaggerated period where no housing is being built in certain areas and continuous population growth. If there is a "baby boom" associated with the lockdowns, plus ultra low fed interest rates for the foreseeable future... People have to live somewhere. Prices are going up.
    The interesting thing is there's not. People have been stuck at home for 6 months and still aren't screwing because they're so uncertain about the future.

    This article was taken from the 3rd week of lockdowns in Italy, so kind of a skewed sample, but everything else I've read is along the same track.

    FRIDAY, May 8, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- It's happened before: Couples stuck at home during blizzards, hurricanes or other natural disasters enjoy some "alone time" -- and a baby boom follows.

    But a new survey from researchers at the University of Florence in Italy suggests the same probably won't unfold during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Why?

    "What we found the main reasons that led people to not wanting to conceive included worries related to future economic difficulties and consequences on pregnancy," said study author Elisabetta Micelli, from the university's Assisted Reproduction Technologies Center.

    The researchers conducted nearly 1,500 online interviews and found that nearly 82% of those surveyed said they didn't plan to conceive during the coronavirus pandemic.

    The survey was conducted in the third week of the lockdown in Italy and included men and women in a stable heterosexual relationship for at least one year.

    The findings were published May 7 in the Journal of Psychosomatic Obstetrics and Gynecology.

    Of the 268 participants who said that, prior to the pandemic, they had plans to have a child, more than one-third abandoned their intentions when the pandemic struck. The main reasons were worries about future economic struggles (58%) and any potential consequences on pregnancy (58%) from the new coronavirus.

    Even though almost half of those who responded to the survey had not lost their jobs or income, "the fear of imminent and future economic instabilities led those who were searching for a pregnancy to stop their intention in 58% of cases," Micelli said in a journal news release.

    Interestingly, 140 (11.5%) of the participants -- mostly women -- expressed a new desire for parenthood during quarantine, with the main reasons being "the will for change" (50%) and "the need for positivity" (40%).

    But only six of the 140 (4.3%) actually tried to get pregnant during the lockdown.
    Been saying it for a while: people want kids, but they know they can't financially afford them, so they turn to dog-babies and video games as a cope.
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    Commercial real estate, NNN, internet proof businesses are the only way to go going forward imo. I would much rather own one NNN property with a paying tenant than 5 residential properties with less than half my renters paying.
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    Originally Posted by DrunkonMilk View Post
    Commercial real estate, NNN, internet proof businesses are the only way to go going forward imo. I would much rather own one NNN property with a paying tenant than 5 residential properties with less than half my renters paying.
    Commercial real estate? You sure about that one brah?
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    Originally Posted by FAPhaggot View Post
    Commercial real estate? You sure about that one brah?
    Yes 10000%. I wouldn't touch residential in the foreseeable future, especially here.
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    Originally Posted by keyboardworkout View Post
    I'm all confused right now. Sitting in a paid off house worth about $450k and not sure what to do. Would like to sell and move to something with more land but not sure.
    I get this. Some decent equity where I am now, but such high taxes. Leaning toward selling and hoping to catch a decent opportunity in a spot with lower carrying costs.

    It's nerve wracking though.
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    Originally Posted by DrunkonMilk View Post
    Yes 10000%. I wouldn't touch residential in the foreseeable future, especially here.
    Fuuuark, just saw your location. I move there in 2 weeks dammit. I already know California real estate is pure retardation, but it hurts to see mayne.
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    Originally Posted by hendrixfreak70 View Post
    We just added a room (which was an attic) to our house. Heated, cooled, closet, flooring, drywall, paint, cased out window/doors, and electrical. Spent 10k. Hoping it adds 40k at least to value. Did I dun gooft?

    Home value is around 370k at the moment, without adding the 480 sq ft to it.
    Did you pull permits for the addition?
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    Registered User trufflepigg's Avatar
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    if it crashes, you keep your property and buy more with cash that your should have on hand
    if it goes up, you sell and hold cash until it goes down a bit and re-enter market, you rent in this time maybe 2 years
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    Originally Posted by FrankCostanza View Post
    I'm going to be buying a house in tahoe and rent it out 9 months out of the year. I'm waiting for real estate to shot the bed.
    People that own in Tahoe are already filthy rich, so a bubble in the real estate market isn't going to make much of a difference. Areas around Tahoe/Truckee/Soda Springs limit the number of building permits a year so prices are always going up.
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    lol @ miscers trying to time the market
    billion dollar hedge funds barely can
    <HTC>
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    Originally Posted by solidus2k3 View Post
    lol @ miscers trying to time the market
    billion dollar hedge funds barely can
    This.

    Originally Posted by trufflepigg View Post
    if it crashes, you keep your property and buy more with cash that your should have on hand
    if it goes up, you sell and hold cash until it goes down a bit and re-enter market, you rent in this time maybe 2 years
    Just LOL.
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