UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley

[Abzu]

The main event is simple to analyze as it has only two majority outcomes, Covington DEC or Woodley KO.

On the surface it seems simple which to favor but Covington by DEC has it's own complications. Covington does not have the power to KO or even hurt Woodley with a single strike, he will have to throw in combination on a weathered Woodley in the championship rounds to force a stop. Now, why can't he do that you may ask?

Well, Woodley's return fire will be blistering and it will surely interrupt any combinations Covington attempts. Once Woodley connects, Covington will be more cautious in his combination punching, this will further stifle his ability to KO or tire Woodley but this will allow him to make it to scorecards. If Covington is too cautious the scorecards may be closer than they should be. If it goes to scorecards, it's either a close/robbery win for Woodley(<5%) or a blowout for Covington. If someone winds up facedown, it's going to be Covington.

Covington ML -325, DEC -150

Woodley ML +265, ITD +430

I don't think it's worth playing either ML but by the odds, you would have to play Woodley ITD. Does Covington wins by DEC 65%+? Does Woodley wins ITD 35%+?

[Harry362]

Woodley is ****ing insufferable I hope Colby beats the **** out of him

[BalkanPrince]

It is interesting. Between Woodley and Colby, it is Woodley who has the knockout power to end the fight. But Colby is sooo ahead in the wrestling that I see that being the difference maker. I think Woodley vs Colby will look like Usman vs Woodley. The big wildcard in all of this is Gilbert Burns. He looked as dominant as Usman did against Woodley yet he seems to be counted out by many folks. Welterweight is becoming a dance between Colby - Usman - Burns right now. Would have loved to say Masvidal too but he just doesn’t have what it takes to beat any one of them.

Chimaev is a marketing genius. He did so many things right by styling himself as this new force that fights so often. He has already built a aura about him and the hype around this kid has unbelievable momentum. If he gets GM3 and Maia out there, he will absolutely explode and become a legit future threat. This fight is make or break for him.

[q0c0p]

Woodley cannot come out flat like he has been doing. They hate each other so if he isn't fired up for this fight it might be done for him. This card is quite awesome, a ppv level card

[MinisterOfLust]

My body is ready

Hope I can stay up to watch it.

[Schnitzl]

IThe big wildcard in all of this is Gilbert Burns.

Agreed. Burns is a seasoned guy and a big boi in the division as well. He is a multiple time world BJJ champ and has the strength to actually take Usman down. I'm very excited as this would be the first time Usman actually faces some adversity. I'd still bet on him probably for decision.

Colby decision is a pretty good bet if you parlay it as on its own the risk is not worth it. I'd even go as far as saying colby sub in 4th or 5th just for lelz

[Swept]

If Colby loses this he’s fuked

[MinisterOfLust]

If Colby loses this he’s fuked

I say if Woodley loses he retires.

And he looks so tiny compared to Colby

Maybe he just showed up for a quick paycheck. I heard he blows away a lot of money and is nearly broke

[scooterbrah]

lol


can't count woodley out tho, a big punch could knock Colby out, have to wonder if his jaw is okay

based nate shut woodley's loud ass mom for good that night

I hope Woodley gets wrecked.

i cant stand either of those *******s but i guess i'd rather colby won

My body is ready

Hope I can stay up to watch it.

mommy wont let you stay up late?

[MinisterOfLust]

mommy wont let you stay up late?

No, dealing with some emotional problems. I am sure I will be watching to take mind away from stuff.

[taskmob]

This ******* is so cringe. I hope Colby knocks him the phuck out and Dana releases him.

[RESILIENCY]

Damn back after 8 years got my perma ban lifted, was sitting on r/mma the whole ****ing time, whats you you *******s hows the misc been, hyped for today

[sooby]

This ******* is so cringe. I hope Colby knocks him the phuck out and Dana releases him.

lol cringe

[SpartanStud]

This ******* is so cringe. I hope Colby knocks him the phuck out and Dana releases him.

Cringe is part of the job now.

[Harry362]

top 4 fights on this card are great, everything else is pretty meh

Cerrone is gonna get his ass kicked, Walker will lose his last fight, T wood finna get beat down

[MinisterOfLust]

Damn back after 8 years got my perma ban lifted, was sitting on r/mma the whole ****ing time, whats you you *******s hows the misc been, hyped for today

You really got a permanent ban here? Welcome back brother.
AND fucc r/mma they banned me because I say I don't understand why Paula Costa is into tranny.

[MinisterOfLust]

This ******* is so cringe. I hope Colby knocks him the phuck out and Dana releases him.

This is really weird.

[Harry362]

This is really weird.

because black lives matter

[Schnitzl]

Damn son, Nam bringing in the $$$$ as always. Never bet against T-dawg. TKO is good money erry tiem

[BobLoblawBrah]

Stewart is good value too +230. He's only an inch or 2 shorter than Holland.

Woodley x Stewart x Chimaev by stoppage = 20x

[BobLoblawBrah]

Rose Clark is hot today.

[Mr.PissShivers]

hmmm...hard call.

[Schnitzl]

I've got Walker rd 1, Bektic rd1 & Price any rd by TKO

[MinisterOfLust]

I've got Walker rd 1, Bektic rd1 & Price any rd by TKO

Never saw Walker's opponent so maybe a gimme win for him

[Schnitzl]

Never saw Walker's opponent so maybe a gimme win for him

woops double checked, not rd1 bektic but ko/points. close hueuheu

[Abzu]

Walker is a fraud.

[hardestgainer]

Colby is the better fighter but I’m a little worried he might go full potato and try to just stand and trade right in front of Woodley

I wonder what Jackson said to Bektic when he was standing over him

[BobLoblawBrah]

These underdog prop bets are cashing in today. You know what that means


Tyron by KO



But not Mearschart over Czar Chimaev

[KingSWRV]

Got money on T-Wood but thats just because he is such an underdog in the betting lines. I think colby will win but why is he such a favorite?

Umm I dunno maybe because he was beating usman until that unlucky punch...

[goingcia]

Holland has srs afros under his pits. Dude must stink