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  1. #1
    You mirin? VTLifts's Avatar
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    Any insiders have a clue when supply (bars, plates,etc..) will start to catch up?

    Obviously demand has skyrocketed since March for all things gym-equipment related.

    But how can we still be sitting in August and there are NO signs of light regarding dumbbells, plates, barbells, etc.. If you feel differently about this statement, say so, but the only thing I've been able to snag for months (h/t UrbanLifter) is a REP EX Power Bar.

    Anyone, particularly if you work in the industry or have a friend who does, care to chime in on that state of affairs? Maybe put some #s around demand vs supply?

    Here's a highly simplified math example that I suppose could explain the problem:

    A normal pre-COVID factory makes 100 units per day matching demand, but could flex to 120 units/day with overtime

    They want 2 months inv on hand, so they have 6,000 units in stock before COVID (60 days * 100 units per day of demand)

    COVID demand goes from 100 units/day to 1,000 units/day. I have no clue if demand went up 10x, but doesn't seem crazy. I think a structural shift in home gyms is underway.

    The 6,000 inventory units are gone in a week (900 unit demand beyond production chews through inventory in 7 days)

    Plant flexes up overtime to get a +20% production lift to 120 units/day, but it is sill a drop in bucket vs the 1,000 unit demand

    After 4 months of this (using flat demand over this period, which is overly simplistic) the 880 unit per day shortage is a backlog of 105,000 units (120 days * 880 unit shortfall per day)

    This 105,000 unit backlog is now 880 days of production or more than 2 years to catch up.

    Plant can't boost capacity more than that 120 because it simply takes time to add production lines or it takes $$$ and the company doesn't. want to add fixed costs if this demand surge is fleeting within a year
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  2. #2
    Registered User radrd's Avatar
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    Hopefully not soon. I'm selling my rack.
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    Registered User Stinkape's Avatar
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    Call China and ask them what the holdup is!?
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    About four and a half past the next 100,000 units of measure. Assuming 20% advancement in local earnings and good fortune on the stock market.

    What the hell did you type? Stay off the drugs and stay in school.
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    You mirin? VTLifts's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Sdca7718 View Post
    About four and a half past the next 100,000 units of measure. Assuming 20% advancement in local earnings and good fortune on the stock market.

    What the hell did you type? Stay off the drugs and stay in school.
    Lol. You slow, bro?

    Sorry you cant follow elementary math and supply vs demand.
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    Registered User broganoff's Avatar
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    Inventory is changing constantly. Use shopping dot google to search sites more efficiently. Just don't expect to get exactly what you want at a price that doesn't hurt. Unless you have low expectations, in which case, there are plenty of CAP plates on amazon Lolz
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  7. #7
    RL Erik 'Iwhspr Fe comes' matrix563's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by VTLifts View Post
    Obviously demand has skyrocketed since March for all things gym-equipment related.

    But how can we still be sitting in August and there are NO signs of light regarding dumbbells, plates, barbells, etc.. If you feel differently about this statement, say so, but the only thing I've been able to snag for months (h/t UrbanLifter) is a REP EX Power Bar.

    Anyone, particularly if you work in the industry or have a friend who does, care to chime in on that state of affairs? Maybe put some #s around demand vs supply?

    Here's a highly simplified math example that I suppose could explain the problem:

    A normal pre-COVID factory makes 100 units per day matching demand, but could flex to 120 units/day with overtime

    They want 2 months inv on hand, so they have 6,000 units in stock before COVID (60 days * 100 units per day of demand)

    COVID demand goes from 100 units/day to 1,000 units/day. I have no clue if demand went up 10x, but doesn't seem crazy. I think a structural shift in home gyms is underway.

    The 6,000 inventory units are gone in a week (900 unit demand beyond production chews through inventory in 7 days)

    Plant flexes up overtime to get a +20% production lift to 120 units/day, but it is sill a drop in bucket vs the 1,000 unit demand

    After 4 months of this (using flat demand over this period, which is overly simplistic) the 880 unit per day shortage is a backlog of 105,000 units (120 days * 880 unit shortfall per day)

    This 105,000 unit backlog is now 880 days of production or more than 2 years to catch up.

    Plant can't boost capacity more than that 120 because it simply takes time to add production lines or it takes $$$ and the company doesn't. want to add fixed costs if this demand surge is fleeting within a year
    nice thread. take a while to get back to where things were in 2019 thats for sure
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  8. #8
    Dork of York Northernmoris's Avatar
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    Going to be awhile. Id bet mid 2021.
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