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  1. #1
    ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Tamorlane's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Why The 2020 Presidential Election Is Not 2016

    Disclaimer: I'm not one who thinks democrats have it in the bag.

    Democrats are haunted by the ghosts of 2016.

    Hillary Clinton led in many polls over Donald Trump throughout that election cycle, and while the national polls were pretty dead-on when it came to the popular vote, some key battleground state polls got it wrong.

    So who can blame Democrats when they don't believe surveys showing Biden with a significant lead nationally and in key states? The latest NPR Battleground Map released this week, for example, shows Trump slipping and Biden expanding his advantage in the key states. Democrats are favored to retain control of the House, and Republicans are worried about losing the Senate.

    "This isn't hard. Right now, Trump is losing, and the Senate is leaning towards Democrats," one GOP strategist told NPR's Susan Davis.

    The Biden campaign and Democratic strategists do expect the presidential race to tighten. One reason for that is while Biden is at or close to 50% in the national polling average and his lead has doubled from 4 points in March to 8 points now, his top-line number hasn't moved.

    Biden was polling at 49.7% against Trump on March 5 in the FiveThirtyEight average of the polls. As of Friday, it's 49.9%.

    So what accounts for Biden's lead? Trump's support has declined. In early March, Trump was at 45.6% against Biden. Now it's down to 42.1%.

    If those soft Trump voters who have slipped into the undecided column wind up seeing Trump as doing even marginally better in handling the coronavirus pandemic, the economy or race relations, they could go back Trump's way.

    But there are plenty of reasons why 2020 is not 2016:
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    ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Tamorlane's Avatar
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    1. Trump appears to have a ceiling of 46%: More concerning for the Trump campaign than a slippage in the polls is the very real possibility that he hasn't gotten higher against Biden than the 46% of the popular vote he got in 2016.

    Trump's 45.6% average of the polls at the end of February was his peak against Biden over the last 10 months. What's more, in hundreds of surveys, Trump has only reached even 47% in a few.

    2. The third-party vote share is likely to be lower: Roughly 6% of voters in 2016 voted third-party, the highest percentage since 1996. That helped Trump win the Electoral College. But the percentage of people voting third-party in 2020 this fall is likely to be lower for multiple reasons, including:

    -Biden is working closely with primary rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and has a better relationship with Sanders than Clinton did;
    -The third-party candidates this time are less prominent and getting less attention than in 2016; and
    -Perhaps most importantly, no one is underestimating Trump's chances as some did in 2016. Democrats see him far more as a clear, present and urgent threat who very well could win reelection.

    3. People don't dislike Biden as much as they did Clinton: Trump and Clinton were the two of the most disliked presidential candidates in American history.

    There will probably be books written on what that says about Americans and gender in U.S. politics, but there just isn't the same disdain for Biden that there was for Clinton.

    Let's compare:

    -July 2016: Clinton 34% positive, 56% negative with 43% "very negative" (NBC/WSJ poll)
    -July 2020: Biden 34% positive, 46% negative, with 33% "very negative" (NBC/WSJ poll)

    The fact that Biden's "very negative" score is 10 points lower than Clinton's is significant. It might not only contribute to fewer third-party votes, but also reduce vitriol toward Biden that may mean potential Trump voters will be less fired up to turn out to cast a vote (or mail one in).

    Already, the Trump campaign has tried repeated attacks, trying to tie Biden to the "radical" left and saying that crime would run rampant if Biden wins.

    Biden's voters are far more motivated to vote against Trump than for Biden, and that may be enough.

    An election with a president running for a second term is all about the incumbent after all, and those ghosts of 2016 are very real.
    https://www.npr.org/2020/08/08/90033...on-is-not-2016
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  3. #3
    prodigal son of a bitch bezarker's Avatar
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    If you broke she spittin' if you rich she might swallow for the ends...
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    Registered User vickissick07's Avatar
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    Why it is like the 2016 election

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    Liberals 2015: Hillary is perfect woman
    Liberals 2016: Trump cheated
    Liberals 2017: Trump is illegitimate
    Liberals 2018: Trump is illegitimate
    Liberals 2019: Trump is illegitimate
    Liberals 2020: Hillary was bad, Biden is perfect man
    Liberals 2021: Trump cheated
    Repeat “ “
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    And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
    Now in 2020, we see
    1.Pandemic
    2.Economy
    3. Racial tension
    4.Track record

    People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
    you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4
    sums it up a thread will start off promising and then turn into name calling..
    The easiest way to tell when an argument has no merit is when the protagonist mixes in some personal insults.
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  7. #7
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    Originally Posted by bezarker View Post
    Not an argument.
    "Make every effort to live in peace with everyone and to be holy; without holiness no one will see the Lord." (Hebrews 12:14)

    "Tolerance only for those who agree with you is no tolerance at all." ― Ray A. Davis

    "That which drives me in life is my faith, and what I desire most is peace for mankind." ― C. Jones
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  8. #8
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  9. #9
    Platinum Member ☑️ dizzin9's Avatar
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    You got to be so fukced up in the head to even consider Dementia Joe as your next POTUS...
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  10. #10
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    Originally Posted by dizzin9 View Post
    You got to be so fukced up in the head to even consider Dementia Joe as your next POTUS...

    tell them that, from Wednesday, August 5



    General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 43, Trump 40 *Biden +3
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 45 *Biden +3
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 *Biden +9
    sums it up a thread will start off promising and then turn into name calling..
    The easiest way to tell when an argument has no merit is when the protagonist mixes in some personal insults.
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  11. #11
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    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
    Now in 2020, we see
    1.Pandemic
    2.Economy
    3. Racial tension
    4.Track record

    People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
    you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4
    You’re right, it is different the left has shown their cards that they are certified nuts
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    Registered User ezmac31's Avatar
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    Yes I’m sure platforms like burning down federal buildings, defunding police and replacing with social workers, and free healthcare For illegals paid for by actual citizens who don’t get free healthcare themselves, are slam dunk policies that will make up for the shortcomings of the liberal agenda that failed in 2016
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    Originally Posted by ezmac31 View Post
    Yes I’m sure platforms like burning down federal buildings, defunding police and replacing with social workers, and free healthcare For illegals paid for by actual citizens who don’t get free healthcare themselves, are slam dunk policies that will make up for the shortcomings of the liberal agenda that failed in 2016
    That’s the great thing - liberals believe they can key cars, vandalize property, anything against Trump supporters. We just say silent until the election
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  15. #15
    It's not the gun, stupid. Ikeman83's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
    Now in 2020, we see
    1.Pandemic
    2.Economy
    3. Racial tension
    4.Track record

    People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
    you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4
    1. The pandemic proved Trump correct regarding dependence on China, the importance of border security, and the prioritization of domestic American manufacturing.
    2. The economy was literally off the charts until a global plague crushed it.
    3. Racial tension is a problem for the Democrats, not Republicans. Republicans want us all to be Americans. Democrats want us all to be *-Americans. Moreover, the entire "I Can't Breathe" narrative is literally a fabrication.
    4. Track Record: He's been proven right repeatedly on everything from collusion being a hoax, Democrats being corrupt, and China being the enemy of the United States. The entire Russia collusion narrative was a fabricated pretext for the outgoing administration to spy on the President-Elect of the United States.

    Trump has the US moving forward, in spite of Democrats doing literally everything in their power to undermine the legitimacy of his Presidency.
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    The media and Hollywood are doing all they can to help Joe Biden. If he loses after all that it will be epic.
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    Originally Posted by Ikeman83 View Post
    1. The pandemic proved Trump correct regarding dependence on China, the importance of border security, and the prioritization of domestic American manufacturing.
    2. The economy was literally off the charts until a global plague crushed it.
    3. Racial tension is a problem for the Democrats, not Republicans. Republicans want us all to be Americans. Democrats want us all to be *-Americans. Moreover, the entire "I Can't Breathe" narrative is literally a fabrication.
    4. Track Record: He's been proven right repeatedly on everything from collusion being a hoax, Democrats being corrupt, and China being the enemy of the United States. The entire Russia collusion narrative was a fabricated pretext for the outgoing administration to spy on the President-Elect of the United States.

    Trump has the US moving forward, in spite of Democrats doing literally everything in their power to undermine the legitimacy of his Presidency.

    Someone please get Ben a body bag.

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    Originally Posted by uncle ben View Post
    And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
    Now in 2020, we see
    1.Pandemic
    2.Economy
    3. Racial tension
    4.Track record

    People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
    you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4
    Racial tension is Trump's fault? Lol tell us more Benny!
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    And I saw myself staring back again, and I saw myself staring back again...
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    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
    Now in 2020, we see
    1.Pandemic
    2.Economy
    3. Racial tension
    4.Track record

    People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
    you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4
    Heard someone on the car radio (Fox Across America? or something) this morning make some pretty good points about Trump.

    One was that he was popular in 2016 becasue he was essentially Rodney Dangerfield's character in Caddyshack who found his way into Washington DC's country club. Love that movie and the comparison helped me understand 2016 from a different perspective.

    That is 100% gone now. Look at this forum as an example, the hopeful memes, the positive expectations of the core issues, all gone. All that's left are the bitter and stubborn hangers on who make excuses and parrot digs at Biden.

    Most people can only put up with so much Rodney Dangerfield before they get bored and wander off.
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    Cold Hearted SOB Dave22reborn's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
    Now in 2020, we see
    1.Pandemic
    2.Economy
    3. Racial tension
    4.Track record

    People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
    you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4
    Oh yeah, because there were ZERO riots under Obama....
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    Originally Posted by ~Hades~ View Post
    Someone please get Ben a body bag.

    Size small, made of the finest soy that Bernie bucks can buy
    Every time he tries to be smug, reality hits him....
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    Originally Posted by Ikeman83 View Post
    1. The pandemic proved Trump correct regarding dependence on China, the importance of border security, and the prioritization of domestic American manufacturing.
    2. The economy was literally off the charts until a global plague crushed it.
    3. Racial tension is a problem for the Democrats, not Republicans. Republicans want us all to be Americans. Democrats want us all to be *-Americans. Moreover, the entire "I Can't Breathe" narrative is literally a fabrication.
    4. Track Record: He's been proven right repeatedly on everything from collusion being a hoax, Democrats being corrupt, and China being the enemy of the United States. The entire Russia collusion narrative was a fabricated pretext for the outgoing administration to spy on the President-Elect of the United States.

    Trump has the US moving forward, in spite of Democrats doing literally everything in their power to undermine the legitimacy of his Presidency.
    1. Deflection.
    2. Economy was great until it wasn't.
    3. Blame someone else.
    4. Zero accomplishments listed.
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    Originally Posted by Seatard View Post
    1. Deflection.
    2. Economy was great until it wasn't.
    3. Blame someone else.
    4. Zero accomplishments listed.
    How are you going to blame a worldwide pandemic, that started in China, on Trump?

    How are you gonna blame all of these riots/protests on Trump?
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    Originally Posted by Dave22reborn View Post
    How are you going to blame a worldwide pandemic, that started in China, on Trump?

    How are you gonna blame all of these riots/protests on Trump?
    No one is blaming Trump for creating covid or starting riots Dave.
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    Originally Posted by Seatard View Post
    1. Deflection.
    2. Economy was great until it wasn't.
    3. Blame someone else.
    4. Zero accomplishments listed.
    Not sure if serious.
    Misc Firearms Crew #9
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    Originally Posted by Seatard View Post
    No one is blaming Trump for creating covid or starting riots Dave.
    That's not what Mr. 50/50 is doing?
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    US NAVY

    Redskins/Buckeyes/Federer

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    Originally Posted by Dave22reborn View Post
    That's not what Mr. 50/50 is doing?
    I won't speak for Ben, that's not how I read his post though.

    The first three items are facts of life that did not exist in 2016 or have arguably gotten worse. Trumps response to them has been met with luke warm reception at best. His campaign strategists surely struggle with picking positive messages out of it all.

    The last item is pretty obvious, there are few (none?) big, clear cut accomplishments to come out of the first term. Yeah, he appointed some judges when it was time, made some good efforts, results are poor overall though and it's been overshadowed by a chit show of turnover and dumb tweets.
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    Originally Posted by Seatard View Post
    That is 100% gone now. Look at this forum as an example, the hopeful memes, the positive expectations of the core issues, all gone. All that's left are the bitter and stubborn hangers on who make excuses and parrot digs at Biden.
    lmao this
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    The polls had Hillary with a wide map advantage at this point in 2016.

    Problems for Biden..
    -Will piss off some group with his VP choice
    -Old, senile, and has to be hidden
    -Will get demolished in the debates
    -Has no enthusiasm behind him, which is problematic for turnout
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