Why The 2020 Presidential Election Is Not 2016

[Tamorlane]

Disclaimer: I'm not one who thinks democrats have it in the bag.

Democrats are haunted by the ghosts of 2016.

Hillary Clinton led in many polls over Donald Trump throughout that election cycle, and while the national polls were pretty dead-on when it came to the popular vote, some key battleground state polls got it wrong.

So who can blame Democrats when they don't believe surveys showing Biden with a significant lead nationally and in key states? The latest NPR Battleground Map released this week, for example, shows Trump slipping and Biden expanding his advantage in the key states. Democrats are favored to retain control of the House, and Republicans are worried about losing the Senate.

"This isn't hard. Right now, Trump is losing, and the Senate is leaning towards Democrats," one GOP strategist told NPR's Susan Davis.

The Biden campaign and Democratic strategists do expect the presidential race to tighten. One reason for that is while Biden is at or close to 50% in the national polling average and his lead has doubled from 4 points in March to 8 points now, his top-line number hasn't moved.

Biden was polling at 49.7% against Trump on March 5 in the FiveThirtyEight average of the polls. As of Friday, it's 49.9%.

So what accounts for Biden's lead? Trump's support has declined. In early March, Trump was at 45.6% against Biden. Now it's down to 42.1%.

If those soft Trump voters who have slipped into the undecided column wind up seeing Trump as doing even marginally better in handling the coronavirus pandemic, the economy or race relations, they could go back Trump's way.

But there are plenty of reasons why 2020 is not 2016:

[Tamorlane]

1. Trump appears to have a ceiling of 46%: More concerning for the Trump campaign than a slippage in the polls is the very real possibility that he hasn't gotten higher against Biden than the 46% of the popular vote he got in 2016.

Trump's 45.6% average of the polls at the end of February was his peak against Biden over the last 10 months. What's more, in hundreds of surveys, Trump has only reached even 47% in a few.

2. The third-party vote share is likely to be lower: Roughly 6% of voters in 2016 voted third-party, the highest percentage since 1996. That helped Trump win the Electoral College. But the percentage of people voting third-party in 2020 this fall is likely to be lower for multiple reasons, including:

-Biden is working closely with primary rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and has a better relationship with Sanders than Clinton did;
-The third-party candidates this time are less prominent and getting less attention than in 2016; and
-Perhaps most importantly, no one is underestimating Trump's chances as some did in 2016. Democrats see him far more as a clear, present and urgent threat who very well could win reelection.

3. People don't dislike Biden as much as they did Clinton: Trump and Clinton were the two of the most disliked presidential candidates in American history.

There will probably be books written on what that says about Americans and gender in U.S. politics, but there just isn't the same disdain for Biden that there was for Clinton.

Let's compare:

-July 2016: Clinton 34% positive, 56% negative with 43% "very negative" (NBC/WSJ poll)
-July 2020: Biden 34% positive, 46% negative, with 33% "very negative" (NBC/WSJ poll)

The fact that Biden's "very negative" score is 10 points lower than Clinton's is significant. It might not only contribute to fewer third-party votes, but also reduce vitriol toward Biden that may mean potential Trump voters will be less fired up to turn out to cast a vote (or mail one in).

Already, the Trump campaign has tried repeated attacks, trying to tie Biden to the "radical" left and saying that crime would run rampant if Biden wins.

Biden's voters are far more motivated to vote against Trump than for Biden, and that may be enough.

An election with a president running for a second term is all about the incumbent after all, and those ghosts of 2016 are very real.

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/08/90033...on-is-not-2016

[bezarker]

[vickissick07]

Why it is like the 2016 election

[backinbusiness]

Liberals 2015: Hillary is perfect woman
Liberals 2016: Trump cheated
Liberals 2017: Trump is illegitimate
Liberals 2018: Trump is illegitimate
Liberals 2019: Trump is illegitimate
Liberals 2020: Hillary was bad, Biden is perfect man
Liberals 2021: Trump cheated
Repeat “ “

[x-trainer ben]

And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
Now in 2020, we see
1.Pandemic
2.Economy
3. Racial tension
4.Track record

People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4

[Dorich]

Not an argument.

[ymer]

[dizzin9]

You got to be so fukced up in the head to even consider Dementia Joe as your next POTUS...

[x-trainer ben]

You got to be so fukced up in the head to even consider Dementia Joe as your next POTUS...

tell them that, from Wednesday, August 5



General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 43, Trump 40 *Biden +3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 45 *Biden +3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 *Biden +9

[backinbusiness]

And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
Now in 2020, we see
1.Pandemic
2.Economy
3. Racial tension
4.Track record

People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4

You’re right, it is different the left has shown their cards that they are certified nuts

[ezmac31]

Yes I’m sure platforms like burning down federal buildings, defunding police and replacing with social workers, and free healthcare For illegals paid for by actual citizens who don’t get free healthcare themselves, are slam dunk policies that will make up for the shortcomings of the liberal agenda that failed in 2016

[backinbusiness]

Yes I’m sure platforms like burning down federal buildings, defunding police and replacing with social workers, and free healthcare For illegals paid for by actual citizens who don’t get free healthcare themselves, are slam dunk policies that will make up for the shortcomings of the liberal agenda that failed in 2016

That’s the great thing - liberals believe they can key cars, vandalize property, anything against Trump supporters. We just say silent until the election

[Ikeman83]

And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
Now in 2020, we see
1.Pandemic
2.Economy
3. Racial tension
4.Track record

People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4

1. The pandemic proved Trump correct regarding dependence on China, the importance of border security, and the prioritization of domestic American manufacturing.
2. The economy was literally off the charts until a global plague crushed it.
3. Racial tension is a problem for the Democrats, not Republicans. Republicans want us all to be Americans. Democrats want us all to be *-Americans. Moreover, the entire "I Can't Breathe" narrative is literally a fabrication.
4. Track Record: He's been proven right repeatedly on everything from collusion being a hoax, Democrats being corrupt, and China being the enemy of the United States. The entire Russia collusion narrative was a fabricated pretext for the outgoing administration to spy on the President-Elect of the United States.

Trump has the US moving forward, in spite of Democrats doing literally everything in their power to undermine the legitimacy of his Presidency.

[sawoobley]

The media and Hollywood are doing all they can to help Joe Biden. If he loses after all that it will be epic.

[~Hades~]

1. The pandemic proved Trump correct regarding dependence on China, the importance of border security, and the prioritization of domestic American manufacturing.
2. The economy was literally off the charts until a global plague crushed it.
3. Racial tension is a problem for the Democrats, not Republicans. Republicans want us all to be Americans. Democrats want us all to be *-Americans. Moreover, the entire "I Can't Breathe" narrative is literally a fabrication.
4. Track Record: He's been proven right repeatedly on everything from collusion being a hoax, Democrats being corrupt, and China being the enemy of the United States. The entire Russia collusion narrative was a fabricated pretext for the outgoing administration to spy on the President-Elect of the United States.

Trump has the US moving forward, in spite of Democrats doing literally everything in their power to undermine the legitimacy of his Presidency.

Someone please get Ben a body bag.

Size small, made of the finest soy that Bernie bucks can buy

[Bushmaster]

And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
Now in 2020, we see
1.Pandemic
2.Economy
3. Racial tension
4.Track record

People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4

Racial tension is Trump's fault? Lol tell us more Benny!

[Seatard]

And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
Now in 2020, we see
1.Pandemic
2.Economy
3. Racial tension
4.Track record

People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4

Heard someone on the car radio (Fox Across America? or something) this morning make some pretty good points about Trump.

One was that he was popular in 2016 becasue he was essentially Rodney Dangerfield's character in Caddyshack who found his way into Washington DC's country club. Love that movie and the comparison helped me understand 2016 from a different perspective.

That is 100% gone now. Look at this forum as an example, the hopeful memes, the positive expectations of the core issues, all gone. All that's left are the bitter and stubborn hangers on who make excuses and parrot digs at Biden.

Most people can only put up with so much Rodney Dangerfield before they get bored and wander off.

[Dave22reborn]

And let us not forget that Trumps record was" he has so much potential and upside" in 2016.
Now in 2020, we see
1.Pandemic
2.Economy
3. Racial tension
4.Track record

People rolled the dice because he was an "outsider from outside the swamp"and we see what that got them.
you can't compare 2016 to 2020 because of 1-4

Oh yeah, because there were ZERO riots under Obama....

[Dave22reborn]

Someone please get Ben a body bag.

Size small, made of the finest soy that Bernie bucks can buy

Every time he tries to be smug, reality hits him....

[Seatard]

1. The pandemic proved Trump correct regarding dependence on China, the importance of border security, and the prioritization of domestic American manufacturing.
2. The economy was literally off the charts until a global plague crushed it.
3. Racial tension is a problem for the Democrats, not Republicans. Republicans want us all to be Americans. Democrats want us all to be *-Americans. Moreover, the entire "I Can't Breathe" narrative is literally a fabrication.
4. Track Record: He's been proven right repeatedly on everything from collusion being a hoax, Democrats being corrupt, and China being the enemy of the United States. The entire Russia collusion narrative was a fabricated pretext for the outgoing administration to spy on the President-Elect of the United States.

Trump has the US moving forward, in spite of Democrats doing literally everything in their power to undermine the legitimacy of his Presidency.

1. Deflection.
2. Economy was great until it wasn't.
3. Blame someone else.
4. Zero accomplishments listed.

[Dave22reborn]

1. Deflection.
2. Economy was great until it wasn't.
3. Blame someone else.
4. Zero accomplishments listed.

How are you going to blame a worldwide pandemic, that started in China, on Trump?

How are you gonna blame all of these riots/protests on Trump?

[Seatard]

How are you going to blame a worldwide pandemic, that started in China, on Trump?

How are you gonna blame all of these riots/protests on Trump?

No one is blaming Trump for creating covid or starting riots Dave.

[Ikeman83]

1. Deflection.
2. Economy was great until it wasn't.
3. Blame someone else.
4. Zero accomplishments listed.

Not sure if serious.

[Dave22reborn]

No one is blaming Trump for creating covid or starting riots Dave.

That's not what Mr. 50/50 is doing?

[ohiostate124]

[Seatard]

That's not what Mr. 50/50 is doing?

I won't speak for Ben, that's not how I read his post though.

The first three items are facts of life that did not exist in 2016 or have arguably gotten worse. Trumps response to them has been met with luke warm reception at best. His campaign strategists surely struggle with picking positive messages out of it all.

The last item is pretty obvious, there are few (none?) big, clear cut accomplishments to come out of the first term. Yeah, he appointed some judges when it was time, made some good efforts, results are poor overall though and it's been overshadowed by a chit show of turnover and dumb tweets.

[Tamorlane]

That is 100% gone now. Look at this forum as an example, the hopeful memes, the positive expectations of the core issues, all gone. All that's left are the bitter and stubborn hangers on who make excuses and parrot digs at Biden.

lmao this

[TaeBoNinja]

The polls had Hillary with a wide map advantage at this point in 2016.

Problems for Biden..
-Will piss off some group with his VP choice
-Old, senile, and has to be hidden
-Will get demolished in the debates
-Has no enthusiasm behind him, which is problematic for turnout

[Ikeman83]

I won't speak for Ben, that's not how I read his post though.

The first three items are facts of life that did not exist in 2016 or have arguably gotten worse. Trumps response to them has been met with luke warm reception at best. His campaign strategists surely struggle with picking positive messages out of it all.

The last item is pretty obvious, there are few (none?) big, clear cut accomplishments to come out of the first term. Yeah, he appointed some judges when it was time, made some good efforts, results are poor overall though and it's been overshadowed by a chit show of turnover and dumb tweets.

Trump put forth amazing results in all areas until the global economy, literally everyone on Earth, was suckerpunched by the Chinese plague.

The only reason Biden is even in the race, at all, is COVID. Even then, no one is excited to vote for him, and Trump's looking to be doing better, because state and local democrats in uber-liberal areas are making the Dems look bat**** crazy.