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  1. #31
    Registered User Halfway's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by kusok View Post
    People would vote for antifa and soy? It just doesn’t seem possible.
    Demographics are destiny. And unfortunately the majority of people moving here from out of state cling fiercely to their progressive beliefs.

    If not this year its definitely flipping by 2024
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  2. #32
    Registered User DukeOfWoodBerry's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Halfway View Post
    Demographics are destiny. And unfortunately the majority of people moving here from out of state cling fiercely to their progressive beliefs.

    If not this year its definitely flipping by 2024
    Big cities and the border districts with Mexico are going heavy blue in Texas. It's not hard to understand.

    I think a lot of Rs fail to realize Arizona is probably going blue this year. The entire southwest is untenable for Republicans going forward.
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  3. #33
    Anti-Circumcision JoshSP1985's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Halfway View Post
    Demographics are destiny. And unfortunately the majority of people moving here from out of state cling fiercely to their progressive beliefs.

    If not this year its definitely flipping by 2024
    This is why progressiveness is a plague. No one will ever take personal responsibility for things this is why congress has like 10% approval rating overall by individual officials are 50%+ from their states.
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  4. #34
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    Originally Posted by OptimistPrime11 View Post
    LOL. I was born and raised in MI.

    They HATE their gov. Who is a dem.

    Trump is a mortal lock there.
    Depends where you are in Michigan. If you’re in the thumb (which couldn’t be any redder if you smashed it with a hammer) or mid-state - it’s very much Trump country and they hate the gov. But for the state as a whole, her popularity is 55-60%. That’s still down from 67% in March when MI was #3 in the country for COVID cases.

    That being said; I think Michigan is way closer than polling suggests. I believe he has also gained momentum in PA and WI.

    Texas has been trending bluer, but Texas is fools gold for Democrats. It’s not going to turn out for the left. Whenever it eventually does, the GOP is in a lot of trouble electorally.
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  5. #35
    Registered User DukeOfWoodBerry's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by guest View Post
    Depends where you are in Michigan. If you’re in the thumb (which couldn’t be any redder if you smashed it with a hammer) or mid-state - it’s very much Trump country and they hate the gov. But for the state as a whole, her popularity is 55-60%. That’s still down from 67% in March when MI was #3 in the country for COVID cases.

    That being said; I think Michigan is way closer than polling suggests. I believe he has also gained momentum in PA and WI.

    Texas has been trending bluer, but Texas is fools gold for Democrats. It’s not going to turn out for the left. Whenever it eventually does, the GOP is in a lot of trouble electorally.
    The GOP is finished when Texas turns blue, either by 2024 or 2028. There is no viable electoral path when that happens.
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  6. #36
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    The GOP is finished when Texas turns blue, either by 2024 or 2028. There is no viable electoral path when that happens.
    Agreed. Florida will forever be a swing state, I feel - but it has been rising in population. It will be 10 more years before that has enough impact to displace TX. OH has also been trending redder as a whole the past few cycles - but I don’t know that there will be enough population in red states to give them a reasonable chance if TX goes blue.

    My guess is that at some point, the Democratic Party splinters. Progressives and Moderates have enough common ground at the moment to share a platform, but there is a reason Bernie can’t win the nomination (and it has nothing to do with the DNC). Fact is, one on one, more people cast votes for the person he ran against nationally.
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  7. #37
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    Originally Posted by JoshSP1985 View Post
    This is why progressiveness is a plague. No one will ever take personal responsibility for things this is why congress has like 10% approval rating overall by individual officials are 50%+ from their states.
    What if I told you, the GOP was more to blame for the changing voting demographics...dont get fooled by the bible, guns and tax rates.
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  8. #38
    Registered User DukeOfWoodBerry's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by guest View Post
    Agreed. Florida will forever be a swing state, I feel - but it has been rising in population. It will be 10 more years before that has enough impact to displace TX. OH has also been trending redder as a whole the past few cycles - but I don’t know that there will be enough population in red states to give them a reasonable chance if TX goes blue.

    My guess is that at some point, the Democratic Party splinters. Progressives and Moderates have enough common ground at the moment to share a platform, but there is a reason Bernie can’t win the nomination (and it has nothing to do with the DNC). Fact is, one on one, more people cast votes for the person he ran against nationally.
    There will always be multiple parties. After the GOP dies, the Democratic party will splinter like you said. Identity politics and disunity is the future of the country. It'll be interesting to see how and along what lines the Democratic Party splits.
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  9. #39
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    Yep...once TX goes blue in the near future, the USA will be permanently ****ed. At that point, the cancer has spread to vital organs.
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  10. #40
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    I don’t buy it. Was in MI for the 4th and there are Trump signs everywhere. Businesses houses cars and people wearing maga swag. EVERYWHERE
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  11. #41
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    Originally Posted by guest View Post
    Agreed. Florida will forever be a swing state, I feel - but it has been rising in population. It will be 10 more years before that has enough impact to displace TX. OH has also been trending redder as a whole the past few cycles - but I don’t know that there will be enough population in red states to give them a reasonable chance if TX goes blue.

    My guess is that at some point, the Democratic Party splinters. Progressives and Moderates have enough common ground at the moment to share a platform, but there is a reason Bernie can’t win the nomination (and it has nothing to do with the DNC). Fact is, one on one, more people cast votes for the person he ran against nationally.
    The socialist party is poorly organized, so there isn't a place, currently, for the far left to migrate. Sanders could have spent his political capital developing a Democratic Socialist party, but he chose to take the organization and funds available and take his shot from within.

    It's not easy getting on ballots in a winning number of states.

    That might change in the future, but there's no reason for that to happen if the Democrats start consistently winning national elections...which is what is likely to happen before very long, imo.
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  12. #42
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    Originally Posted by RIKTER View Post
    What if I told you, the GOP was more to blame for the changing voting demographics...dont get fooled by the bible, guns and tax rates.
    Mass immigration will be the countries undoing.
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  13. #43
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    Originally Posted by ChewYourFood View Post
    I don’t buy it. Was in MI for the 4th and there are Trump signs everywhere. Businesses houses cars and people wearing maga swag. EVERYWHERE
    Have you been to Detroit?
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  14. #44
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    Originally Posted by GreatOldOne View Post
    The socialist party is poorly organized, so there isn't a place, currently, for the far left to migrate. Sanders could have spent his political capital developing a Democratic Socialist party, but he chose to take the organization and funds available and take his shot from within.

    It's not easy getting on ballots in a winning number of states.

    That might change in the future, but there's no reason for that to happen if the Democrats start consistently winning national elections...which is what is likely to happen before very long, imo.
    Once Democrats take everything over, the different groups comprising it will start to attack each other. The party isn't doing enough for Hispanics or Indians aren't getting enough green cards or gays aren't being represented. There are actually a lot of hostilities within the Democratic Party, contrary to retarded leftists' views who believe in multicultural utopias. Once Republicans and evil, white conservatives are vanquished, you'll see these hostilities rise to the surface.
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    Originally Posted by ViolentZ View Post
    Lone star state is turning blue this year

    mark my words
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  16. #46
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    There will always be multiple parties. After the GOP dies, the Democratic party will splinter like you said. Identity politics and disunity is the future of the country. It'll be interesting to see how and along what lines the Democratic Party splits.
    The Dem party is already splitting.

    They followed the far left of the cliff leaving the free speech dems standing there holding their dicks.

    The Defund the Police movement is pulling more off.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    The Dem party is already splitting.

    They followed the far left of the cliff leaving the free speech dems standing there holding their dicks.

    The Defund the Police movement is pulling more off.
    I don't think there are many free speech Dems. Stopping hate speech seems pretty standard for the left now. Defund the police is a fracture but they can probably agree to compromises to appease most like ending qualified immunity.

    But right now they still have opposition to Republicans uniting them. Only when Republicans are vanquished (by losing Texas) will they break apart.
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    I don't think there are many free speech Dems. Stopping hate speech seems pretty standard for the left now. Defund the police is a fracture but they can probably agree to compromises to appease most like ending qualified immunity.

    But right now they still have opposition to Republicans uniting them. Only when Republicans are vanquished (by losing Texas) will they break apart.
    The "left" and "right" will never be "Vanquished"

    Longterm the parties whatever they are will always be "more prefered" one way or the other by about half the voting population. That doesn't mean the platforms won't change, but the Trump republicans aren't very right.
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    Originally Posted by GreatOldOne View Post
    The socialist party is poorly organized, so there isn't a place, currently, for the far left to migrate. Sanders could have spent his political capital developing a Democratic Socialist party, but he chose to take the organization and funds available and take his shot from within.

    It's not easy getting on ballots in a winning number of states.

    That might change in the future, but there's no reason for that to happen if the Democrats start consistently winning national elections...which is what is likely to happen before very long, imo.
    It’s possible. But Socialism tends to fight a bit with Capitalism, so there is a bit to work out there.
    We are a Capitalist Democracy. When those two ideals can’t agree on a solution, the right tends to look toward Capitalism to solve it - and the left look toward Democracy. I tend to agree that in the future, the labels might change, but we will probably have that same basic tension for many, many years to come.

    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    I don't think there are many free speech Dems. Stopping hate speech seems pretty standard for the left now.
    I think there are a decent amount. Bill Maher being the most vocal, but also - Bari Weiss left the NYT over this as well as signed the Harpers letter...along with Noam Chomsky.

    I think there is more distaste on the left for speech censorship than gets portrayed. It just so happens there is the wing of the party that also likes to punish wrongthink. But this all goes toward a likely splintering of the party if the GOP does meet its demise. In the grand scheme, the Overton Window would have made a significant move left at that point.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    The "left" and "right" will never be "Vanquished"

    Longterm the parties whatever they are will always be "more prefered" one way or the other by about half the voting population. That doesn't mean the platforms won't change, but the Trump republicans aren't very right.
    I could see there being more than two parties in the future. The Republican Party will die with it's brand being toxic. While any "right" wing movement that takes over will be significantly more liberal than Trump Republicans, who I agree aren't that right wing. I see someone like Andrew Yang being the "right" wing candidate LUL.
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    Originally Posted by guest View Post
    I think there are a decent amount. Bill Maher being the most vocal, but also - Bari Weiss left the NYT over this as well as signed the Harpers letter...along with Noam Chomsky.

    I think there is more distaste on the left for speech censorship than gets portrayed. It just so happens there is the wing of the party that also likes to punish wrongthink. But this all goes toward a likely splintering of the party if the GOP does meet its demise. In the grand scheme, the Overton Window would have made a significant move left at that point.
    People in that letter started disassociating from it almost immediately because they didn't like being tied to some of the other people who signed it. The free speech movement on the left is pretty much a joke.
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    Michigan has, and likely always will be decided with how Macomb and Oakland County votes. Wayne is a Democrat stronghold. Grand Rapids area is. Thumb and central Michigan and north are red.

    I have no idea which direction the wind is going here. 2016 I knew Michigan was going to Trump. I saw a total of 2 Hillary things, and the rest was Trump. This year I see far less Trump stuff, but still have only seen 2 Biden signs. The impression I get is that a lot of people are afraid to publicly support Trump, because then you're a target for idiots.

    I suspect Michigan will be a close race again, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went either way. It'll probably be close enough that when they're counting mail in ballots 2 weeks later that magically showed up, it could change the outcome. Then when they do a recount they have the same thing happen that happened in 2016... they find out that multiple districts in Detroit had greater than 100% voter turnout, which then (for some reason) disallows a recount.
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    I could see there being more than two parties in the future. The Republican Party will die with it's brand being toxic. While any "right" wing movement that takes over will be significantly more liberal than Trump Republicans, who I agree aren't that right wing. I see someone like Andrew Yang being the "right" wing candidate LUL.
    Game theory doesn't really work that way.



    With our current voting system the most a 3rd party could do if they were smart is take over certain states.

    For Example: If the Libertarian Party dropped their money into Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. They could elect a few candidates to national office.

    Otherwise you are "losing representation" by picking your candidate.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    Game theory doesn't really work that way.



    With our current voting system the most a 3rd party could do if they were smart is take over certain states.

    For Example: If the Libertarian Party dropped their money into Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. They could elect a few candidates to national office.

    Otherwise you are "losing representation" by picking your candidate.
    I think you're missing the part about the Republican Party dying. Then it depends how the Democratic Party splinters. Things are going to look very different after the Republican Party loses Texas and Democrats have been in control of every branch of government for a number of years.
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    People in that letter started disassociating from it almost immediately because they didn't like being tied to some of the other people who signed it. The free speech movement on the left is pretty much a joke.
    It is...you’re right. Mostly because it’s just no match for social media, though.

    Perfect example: local restaurant has an owner that donates to trump. Local social media...FB groups or whatever start posting how if you eat at said restaurant, you are supporting trump.

    Now, I never gave one bit of thought to the owners political beliefs before. But I also don’t want to indirectly support trump. What do?
    Ultimately, I need to consider that everyone has a right to their political beliefs - and that, therefore, is what I’m patronizing and supporting...free political expression.
    I may want trump to lose more than anything, but I need to stand up for his right to support him regardless of how repugnant I might find that position.

    But the power of SM is that people get that piece of power, and they don’t want to be on the wrong side of an issue. That’s the seduction of cancel culture. You can put that guy out of business because he believes in something you don’t!
    The extreme end of that was people having to distance themselves from a cancel culture letter because they were getting cancelled! Kind of ironic.

    Full disclosure: I blame social media (and Facebook, specifically) for all kinds of ills with society.

    So, I totally agree - the left is weak on free speech. I just think it’s a consequence of the exaggerated stage every single opinion gets, and I see it being a function of popularity rather than political virtue.
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    Once Democrats take everything over, the different groups comprising it will start to attack each other. The party isn't doing enough for Hispanics or Indians aren't getting enough green cards or gays aren't being represented. There are actually a lot of hostilities within the Democratic Party, contrary to retarded leftists' views who believe in multicultural utopias. Once Republicans and evil, white conservatives are vanquished, you'll see these hostilities rise to the surface.
    Look at game theory for the answer to this. It's like the umbrella stand game. If there are two umbrella stands on the beach and whoever needs an umbrella goes to the closest one, where is the Nash equilibrium? The answer is that the two stands are located right next to each other in the exact center of the beach. It's the same way in politics in a two party system. The long term equilibrium is that the two parties will be next to each other in the political center with minor differences to distinguish between "right" and "left". It was that way for decades, but right now, we are not in a long term equilibrium because of the upheaval of the parties. TX turning blue, which will happen soon, will cause the GOP to have to either shift to the left to the new "center" or face extinction and replacement as the "right" party by a different one that will be willing to meet the Dems at the new center.
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    I think you're missing the point about the Republican Party dying. Then it depends how the Democratic Party splinters.
    I just think your Hot Take is wrong.

    I just see the GOP becoming diluted and picking up the people that use to be left leaners. As a result their platform shifts a bit. People have been predicting the end of the GOP based on Demographics for the last several decades. The truth is politics don't work that way.

    Each party will inevitably cover 40% of the voting base with 20% swing voters picking the winner.
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    Originally Posted by DukeOfWoodBerry View Post
    I think you're missing the part about the Republican Party dying. Then it depends how the Democratic Party splinters. Things are going to look very different after the Republican Party loses Texas and Democrats have been in control of every branch of government for a number of years.
    The best thing for the country as a whole would be for the current GOP to die out and be replaced by the Libertarians as the "right" party in the duopoly (or have the GOP return to libertarian roots instead of being authoritarian warmongers). The right-left debate should be libertarian vs progressive not neocon jingoism vs progressive.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    I just think your Hot Take is wrong.

    I just see the GOP becoming diluted and picking up the people that use to be left leaners. As a result their platform shifts a bit. People have been predicting the end of the GOP based on Demographics for the last several decades. The truth is politics don't work that way.

    Each party will inevitably cover 40% of the voting base with 20% swing voters picking the winner.
    That's possible but the demographic shift has only really started to take over. The Republican Party is only viable because of whites. There is no Republican Party in a minority-majority country. Democrats with rule as the only real national party for a little while until it fractures.

    The Republican Party brand is probably too unpopular with minorities to shift and pick them up.
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