Realistic Expectations For Lean Bulk - 5 Years

[Dranseth]

I am looking to all of you for some recommendations.

After spinning my wheels for two years I believe I finally have my nutrition and form on point to commence a thorough and effective bulk.

Height: 6'
Weight: 170 lbs
Age: 30
Gender: male

I am cutting until 10% or 8% fat. Previous estimates told me that would be at approximately 160 lbs, but I will edit this post once someone responds my request in the Estimate My Body Fat Thread.

Once I am at my desired leanness I plan on bulking slowly. How slowly depends on feedback I receive in this thread.

Initially I was planning the following:
Year 1 - 24 lbs
Year 2 - 18 lbs
Year 3 - 8 lbs
Year 4 - 8 lbs
Yesr 5 - 6 lbs


I am wondering if this is too much, though, for years 1 and 2? I have made strength gains dieting (and am continuing to do so) and am worried that might have taken away from my "noobie gains". I have read that we can realistically expect to gain 50 lbs naturally over our life, how does my previous intense labor job and athletics from my teenage days come into play here?

I am on a deficit averaging approximately 1.5 lb per week.

Current lifting stats and climbing:
Squat: 300 lb x 2
Deadlift: 325 lb x 2
Bench: 190 lb x 2
OHP: 140 lb x 2 (I struggle with this one)

Note these are not my true 1 rpm stats. I do not know what they are and have no desire to test for them. As long as I am progressing in the gym I am happy.

I am running nSuns LP 5 day program and plan to do continue this into my bulk. After I can no longer make weekly gains in my major lifts I will likely revert to Boring But Big.

[AdamWW]

You’re putting the cart before the horse with trying to plan weight gain 5 years into the future.

In reality, your progress won’t simply be equal every month and every year. You’ll probably have period where you gain less, or no, weight, but you might recomp and then need to bump calories again.

Or, something might happen where you need to do a mini cut, etc, and then start gaining again.

If you started at 160 at 10% and then gained all the weight you’re planning on, well, you’d be enormous and probably have more fat than you’d prefer.

Bottom line, focus on monthly progress in the more immediate future, not 5 years out.

Keep weight gain to an average of about 2 pounds a month until you’re at intermediate strength levels and then reassess, and realize that it won’t always be exact.

[Dranseth]

Thank you for that, and my apologies for my thoroughness. Just trying to get an understanding. Can you elaborate on "intermediate strength levels"? What are these in terms of the major lifts? I am assuming that once I get to the intermediate level my muscle development will slow. Should I be reducing monthly gains to 1.5 lbs per month at that point, or less?

What I am getting from your response is that novice lifters should aim for 2 lbs per month.

Intermediate lifters should aim for?

Advanced lifters should aim for?

[AdamWW]

Thank you for that, and my apologies for my thoroughness. Just trying to get an understanding. Can you elaborate on "intermediate strength levels"? What are these in terms of the major lifts? I am assuming that once I get to the intermediate level my muscle development will slow. Should I be reducing monthly gains to 1.5 lbs per month at that point, or less?

What I am getting from your response is that novice lifters should aim for 2 lbs per month.

Intermediate lifters should aim for?

Advanced lifters should aim for?

It’s moreso I think you’re worrying about the future here to much.

But yes, on AVERAGE if the goal is maximizing muscle growth while keeping bodyfat gain minimal, novices should aim for about 2lb per month.

Intermediates closer to 1lb/month, and advanced people honestly are going to focus generally more on strength progress... but sure, about 1/2-3/4lb per month.

To be honest tho, I would say just be in the ballpark range, don’t be too worries about precision every single day, weekC etc.

Just stay at a healthy BF level and don’t gain too quickly... staying under 20% for health reasons or under about 17% for performance reasons is a good idea.

I’m not sure on the precise lift ranges for each stage, but I think it’s fair to say if you’re 6 foot and you’re anywhere approaching 200lb while near 15%, you’re gunna be at least late intermediate level.

[Mrpb]

Agreed with Adam, forget about your long term plan.

Right now your goal should be losing weight slowly while maintaining your strength. 1 pound per week would be fine.

When you're lean you'll switch to a slow bulk at 1-2 pounds per month and let your results guide you.

[WolfRose7]

Agreed with Adam, forget about your long term plan.

Right now your goal should be losing weight slowly while maintaining your strength. 1 pound per week would be fine.

When you're lean you'll switch to a slow bulk at 1-2 pounds per month and let your results guide you.

Do you actually think he needs to lose any weight? At 6 foot 170lbs I'm doubtful

[Mrpb]

Do you actually think he needs to lose any weight? At 6 foot 170lbs I'm doubtful

I suspect he probably does. He says his lifts are still going up while he's in deficit.

Stats like 6" 170lb do not tell the whole story. He could easily be at or even above 15% at those stats.

I doubt he's at 12% or lower but who knows...

[WolfRose7]

I suspect he probably does. He says his lifts are still going up while he's in deficit.

Stats like 6" 170lb do not tell the whole story. He could easily be at or even above 15% at those stats.

I doubt he's at 12% or lower but who knows...

Perhaps that is where we are differing.
I don't think I'd ever recommend cutting below 12%.

[AdamWW]

Perhaps that is where we are differing.
I don't think I'd ever recommend cutting below 12%.

Why? 10% is a reasonable number for most trainees as a limit.

[WolfRose7]

Why? 10% is a reasonable number for most trainees as a limit.

I don't think eeking out 12 to 10% is productive for most general trainees

[AdamWW]

I don't think eeking out 12 to 10% is productive for most general trainees

Well, if his 10% weight was 160, that would make his 12% weight around 163.5.

That’s 3.5lb if fat, or only about 3 weeks of dieting.

However, if he had a 300 calorie daily surplus, that translates to 40 additional days he could spend in a surplus before gaining enough fat to get up to the 12% number even if we assumed it was 100% fat gain:

(3.5 x 3500) / 300 = ~40 days

Realistically I would say it’s more like a 2 month extension in bulking tho.

So, I dunno, seems worth it in the long run to be able to extend the bulk by 2+ months for only 3 more weeks of dieting especially if he’s still gaining muscle during the cut.

[WolfRose7]

Well, if his 10% weight was 160, that would make his 12% weight around 163.5.

That’s 3.5lb if fat, or only about 3 weeks of dieting.

However, if he had a 300 calorie daily surplus, that translates to 40 additional days he could spend in a surplus before gaining enough fat to get up to the 12% number even if we assumed it was 100% fat gain:

(3.5 x 3500) / 300 = ~40 days

Realistically I would say it’s more like a 2 month extension in bulking tho.

So, I dunno, seems worth it in the long run to be able to extend the bulk by 2+ months for only 3 more weeks of dieting especially if he’s still gaining muscle during the cut.

Perhaps. The math makes sense.
But in practice I've found nearly everyone struggles with those low bf numbers, and lifts start to regress, which if they do so enough is cutting into that extra bulking time, even if they just stall.. That's still time that you are not progressing.

It's also a lot easier to eat at roughly maintenance and get stronger at higher bf %s from personal and others experience, so I've never quite seen the appeal of cutting down low until you are at a strength level you are happy with (if this even happens).

However if he's getting stronger with no fatigue issues then fair point, hopefully that continues the whole time, I'd certainly not push through regression chasing %bf though.

[AdamWW]

Perhaps. The math makes sense.
But in practice I've found nearly everyone struggles with those low bf numbers, and lifts start to regress, which if they do so enough is cutting into that extra bulking time, even if they just stall.. That's still time that you are not progressing.

It's also a lot easier to eat at roughly maintenance and get stronger at higher bf %s from personal and others experience, so I've never quite seen the appeal of cutting down low until you are at a strength level you are happy with (if this even happens).

However if he's getting stronger with no fatigue issues then fair point, hopefully that continues the whole time, I'd certainly not push through regression chasing %bf though.

There definitely is variability there, and honestly, who actually knows if they're 10% or 12% anyway? Given how different people are in bodyfat distribution, someone could be lean AF on their lower half, but look 12% on their torso, and actually be 10% overall... it's hard to estimate.

But yea, I would say if he's cutting down to a point where progress obviously suffers, that's a time to stop, for sure... OR at least do a diet break or something like that.

I'd only suggest he keep going if performance was still good.

[Mrpb]

Perhaps that is where we are differing.
I don't think I'd ever recommend cutting below 12%.

If that's what you got from reading my post you may want to read it again. It's completely not what I said.

I haven't recommended him cutting below 12%.

[1MANU]

Post a pic of your current physique.

[Dranseth]

Click my bodyspace and view current progress pictures. Be interested to see what you all think. Of course I know I am light. Ideally I would like to be 200 lb at 12%, hence the desire to bulk. My lifts are still progressing with decent volume using nSuns so I see no reason to cease my diet unless someone else has something smart to add

[Mrpb]

Click my bodyspace and view current progress pictures. Be interested to see what you all think. Of course I know I am light. Ideally I would like to be 200 lb at 12%, hence the desire to bulk. My lifts are still progressing with decent volume using nSuns so I see no reason to cease my diet unless someone else has something smart to add

Confirmed, cutting makes sense.

Would be nice to see your progress in this thread.

[Dranseth]

Confirmed, cutting makes sense.

Would be nice to see your progress in this thread.

Thank you. Any chance you can estimate what my BF % is now? Am I close? Does 10 more lbs seem realistic? Thank you.

[AdamWW]

Thank you. Any chance you can estimate what my BF % is now? Am I close? Does 10 more lbs seem realistic? Thank you.

I would estimate you're in the high teens... somewhere around 17% or so.

[Dranseth]

I would estimate you're in the high teens... somewhere around 17% or so.

Thank you. That would put me at approximately 155 lb at 10%. Rather tiny and lots of room to grow. I think I will certainly be able to bulk at 2 lb per month. I started this journey at 220 lb.

[AdamWW]

Thank you. That would put me at approximately 155 lb at 10%. Rather tiny and lots of room to grow. I think I will certainly be able to bulk at 2 lb per month. I started this journey at 220 lb.

Just an estimate dude... it's not precise ;o)

But again, try to think in terms of averages and not on these hard and fast numbers. 155 at 6-foot certainly isn't big, but again you don't NEED to cut to 155 if you're looking plenty lean at 160... just start the gaining process whenever you feel content with your current BF level... no need to follow a norm or a standard if you're happy where you are.

[Mrpb]

Thank you. Any chance you can estimate what my BF % is now? Am I close? Does 10 more lbs seem realistic? Thank you.

I'd say around 16%.

The goal is about 11-12% IMO.

When you bulk from there at 2 pounds per month you'll probably gain half fat, half muscle. I expect you'll get better results bulking slower; between 1 and 2 pounds per month.

[Dranseth]

Appreciate all of the feedback. I am looking forward to this bulk.

[AdamWW]

Appreciate all of the feedback. I am looking forward to this bulk.

FYI, i'm your height and I started eating in a surplus about 3 months ago but from a very underweight state (about 137lb, maybe 7-8% bodyfat or so)...

Since beginning I'm only up about 5.5 pounds, but I've seemingly gained almost no fat at all, but gained significant progress on my lifts. About 2lb of the weight gain happened in the first 2-3 weeks, then it slowed down.

What you will probably find is that, once you get in the groove of bulking, it becomes far more natural and you can sense when you're in the 'right' surplus range... you'll reach a point of fullness and satiety every day which is clearly 'enough' plus a small amount, such that your body will probably fight to keep the added fat minimal.

We tend to observe better auto-regulation of set-point BF% when people start in the 10-12% range on a bulk, and you may even have weeks where you gain zero on the scale but you still get stronger. That is perfectly OK and a good sign, actually. If you stagnate for 2 weeks, though, I would then say you need to add 100-150 calories to continue making progress.

[Dranseth]

That is reassuring. The only reason I am attempting to plan well in advance is because there are significant benefits to a long bulk when you are a novice lifter. I just did not want to start a bulk and have to cut already 6 months later. I have been dieting for 2 years now trying to figure things out and I am over it at this point.

[AdamWW]

That is reassuring. The only reason I am attempting to plan well in advance is because there are significant benefits to a long bulk when you are a novice lifter. I just did not want to start a bulk and have to cut already 6 months later. I have been dieting for 2 years now trying to figure things out and I am over it at this point.

A slow bulk is certainly the way to go, I’m more trying to hit hard on the fact that you don’t need to worry about specifics as much as you might think.

Small changes, averages, patience, steady progress over months and years, that’s how you do it right ;-)

Think in terms of last month, this month, and next month, and not in years. Things will end up working themselves out.

[Dranseth]

Confirmed, cutting makes sense.

Would be nice to see your progress in this thread.

I just started my first ever lean bulk at 165-lb, ~12% BF (per estimation thread). I have uploaded my starting physique. As much as I wanted 10% I felt like I was too small to go any lower.

I am at 168.8-lb since commencing this bulk, mostly water as I have started leveling out.

I will be aiming for .3-.5-lb per week. So far I feel so much better than when I did cutting recovery wise. I am looking forward to seeing what I can do for strength and my physique with this routine

I am doing a hybrid version of BBB 5/3/1. I deloaded all my lifts to focus on form but here is my routine and starting TM's:

Squat 275 (175-lb for 5x10's)
Deadlift 275 (175-lb for 5x10's)
Bench 190 (120-lb for 5x10's)
OHP 135 (75-lb for 5x10's)


Day 1
Deadlift 5/3/1 + 5x10
Squat 5x10
Barbell Bulgarian Split Squat 5x10
Good Mornings 5x10

Day 2
Bench Press 5/3/1 + 5x10
Close Grip Bench 5x10
OHP 5x10
Barbell Row 5x10
Barbell Curl 5x10 superset with
Tricep Pushdown 5x10

Day 3

Squat 5/3/1 + 5x10
Deadlift 5x10
Barbell Bulgarian Split Squat 5x10
Good Mornings 5x10

Day 4

OHP 5/3/1 + 5x10
Bench Press 5x10
Incline Bench Press 5x10
Barbell Row 5x10
Barbell Curl 5x10 superset with
Tricep Pushdown 5x10

[xsquid99]

Whats with all the 5x10's? Thats a crazy (and unnecessary) amount of volume. Especially when you're talking about doing a DL and Squat in same session, or an OHP, Bench, and Incline in same session.

10-20 working sets per muscle group PER WEEK is really all you need OP.

[AdamWW]

Whats with all the 5x10's? Thats a crazy (and unnecessary) amount of volume. Especially when you're talking about doing a DL and Squat in same session, or an OHP, Bench, and Incline in same session.

Yeah that seems insane unless it includes warmups...

My workouts rarely exceed 20 'working' sets

[Dranseth]

Thank you for the feedback. I guess I am a bit confused. Currently my routine is 13 working sets per week per exercise (10 of which are 5x10). Typically BBB is only 8 working sets per week per exercise but I respond well to the volume work and added another volume day for each lift as assistance.

Also, the 5x10's are definitely not warm ups.

Deloaded TM's:
Deadlift: 275-lb with 175-lb for 5x10's
Squat: 275-lb with 175-lb for 5x10's
Bench: 190-lb with 120-lb for 5x10's
OHP: 135-lb with 75-lb for 5x10's

Was my decision to add another 5x10 set for each of the main lifts a bad one?