Is the housing market going to crash?

[mikebadg3]

They say the housing market is six months behind the US market, is this true?

What will happen to the housing market if it does? Should i wait for it to drop before i buy a house?

[paulinkansas]

Housing is something I follow. Have more rental properties than I do fingers and toes. With this crisis, you can probably expect to see prices falling on real estate. You'll probably see it more in certain markets effected by the crisis than others. Example, my towns population was about 10,500 about 10 years ago. That's about the time Amazon relocated one of their distribution centers from this town. 1600 jobs lost in one week. A lot of those newly unemployed people packed up and left town to where jobs are. If they were renting, the landlord could not find anyone to replace those tenants (I was one of those landlords). If they had a mortgage on their house, they either tried to sell it or let the bank have it back. Bank foreclosures usually go 25 cents for the dollar. A $40k house can be had for $10k.

So now you have a lot of houses for rent, houses for sale and bank foreclosures for sale in a town that's losing its population. I started buying bank foreclosures, putting all the utilities in my name, all furnishing them with all furniture and appliances so that someone can just show up with their work clothes and live there without having to buy anything. Pots and pans, dinnerware, soap, towels, pillows, linens, toilet paper, cable, wifi, Smart HDTV and even a vacuum cleaner. It's all there.

I rent these to refinery contractors. A week in a motel room with 2 beds is $400. I charge $400 a week for a 2 bedroom house. $600 for a 3 bedroom. Contractors get a per diem, and they'd much rather pay the same amount as a motel room for a place they can cook, do laundry and have their own bedroom that's decorated like Hugh Hefner's mansion.

So find something unique about your market and try to exploit the situation so that you can make money.

[chickenbroccoli]

Yes it is. Along with the S&P 500 and Apple and Amazon stock.

[Omnivium]

I wish it would, so I can buy something at a reasonable price. The high prices are currently being propped up by the lack of inventory. Maybe this pandemic will cause some foreclosures etc, but I doubt the government will let millions of people go homeless. They'd rather print money until the problem goes away, no matter how much it destroys the US dollar

The 1 thing we do have going for us right now is the record low interest rates. So while prices are very high, loans are very cheap. Some useful links:

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...own-0-3-in-may
http://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh
http://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

[AccountingMajor]

They say the housing market is six months behind the US market, is this true?

What will happen to the housing market if it does? Should i wait for it to drop before i buy a house?

OP the 1st one was catalysted by poor people taking out too many mortgages.

If it does happen again, you will probably lose your job. No idea why it would happen again other than govt preventing people from working during Covid.

[ajctennis]

There was another post about a month ago about this. It comes down to supply and demand. Demand is usually based on jobs. Every market will obviously be different. NYC and SF are getting hammered right now but a lot of sunbelt is going to benefit from this. I would wait to see what happens with eviction moratoriums and foreclosures. If they bail people out then we may not see any kind of large price drop. However, jobs will be lost which constitutes a loss of demand usually. Interest rates are going nowhere. I would wait 6 months for the fallout. I expect to see a 5-10% drop in a lot of markets but nothing like 2008.

[keyboardworkout]

I wish I knew because I would sell now (very high demand where I am with low inventory) and rent for a while then buy cheap.

[snailsrus]

Yes it does every 7-10 years. The Cali bubble is peaked it’s over due to pop

[Jasonw1178]

I think a lot of landlords are going to sell out considering how there is this renter revolt going on with politicians backing them. Depends on where you live of course. As soon as values start to drop, a lot of people will try to sell.

[RobParks2M]

I think a lot of landlords are going to sell out considering how there is this renter revolt going on with politicians backing them. Depends on where you live of course. As soon as values start to drop, a lot of people will try to sell.

And others will try to come in and take their place. Lots of people trying to get "passive income" from rentals or starting AirBnBs. Inflation is going to drive markets up at least for the next couple of years, but who knows just how long it can keep happening?

[Baylorballs]

short term.... ( 6 -18 months) Might dip down some. Which i'm kinda rooting for. time to BUY.

long term... NO. everyone needs shelter. there will always be need for 3 bed, 2 bath. Beware of luxury homes, and certain cities that might crumble w/ chit stain economy over the next few yrs.