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  1. #1
    Registered User TugOfPeace's Avatar
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    Hypothetically, if the dollar value goes significantly down by the end of the year

    How exactly do you hedge against it? Some questions I've got:

    If I have credit card and/or student loan debt when the dollar collapses, won't it be worth less relative to whatever becomes the new standard (gold)?
    If so, shouldn't I just not pay it off right now and move all my savings to gold, so that when the dollar does collapse, I can get a huge "discount" on my debt since it's tied to the dollar?

    If I have a corporate job that pays six figures, won't the money I'm being paid after the collapse be worth less, therefore I'm working for less money?

    If everyone is going through this at the same time, do we enter civil unrest?
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    Lettuce be reality Bluestar92's Avatar
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    Inflation favors the debtor. You should get rid of CC debt immediately though.
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    If the American dollar becomes worthless or “significantly lowered in value”! You and I will have a lot more to be worried about besides our 401ks. Gold and silver won’t mean **** when people are starving. Bullets will mean something though which is being reflected right now as they’re being hoarded.
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    Registered User TugOfPeace's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Bluestar92 View Post
    Inflation favors the debtor. You should get rid of CC debt immediately though.
    my ccs are at 0% interest and I have enough cash to pay them off today.
    Last edited by TugOfPeace; 07-30-2020 at 08:12 PM.
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    Originally Posted by TugOfPeace View Post
    my ccs are at 0% interest and I have enough cash to pay them off today.
    By that logic, no need to pay them off prematurely, so long as you're comfortable with the risk of your hedges not panning out for you.

    No one can tell you what's going to happen, but if everything points to significant dollar decline, then yes, hedging now and paying off your loans later will be the better play in retaining as much value as you can.
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    Stocks will generally do well in an inflationary environment, unless it gets “too inflationary” and the economy stutters or interest rates rise.

    Commodities tend to increase too.
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    Originally Posted by whitepaper View Post
    By that logic, no need to pay them off prematurely, so long as you're comfortable with the risk of your hedges not panning out for you.

    No one can tell you what's going to happen, but if everything points to significant dollar decline, then yes, hedging now and paying off your loans later will be the better play in retaining as much value as you can.
    what happens to people's jobs though?

    I am assuming I will get paid the same regardless of the dollar value, right? so all things being the same, the value of my debt relative to my income doesn't change, the only thing that changes is my purchasing power when buying things like food.. right? my rent wouldn't change?

    The only thing that would really change my circumstances is if I happened to have a lot of whatever currency became the new standard.. that would make me more wealthy compared to pre crash. right?
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    Registered User whitepaper's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TugOfPeace View Post
    what happens to people's jobs though?

    I am assuming I will get paid the same regardless of the dollar value, right? so all things being the same, the value of my debt relative to my income doesn't change, the only thing that changes is my purchasing power when buying things like food.. right? my rent wouldn't change?

    The only thing that would really change my circumstances is if I happened to have a lot of whatever currency became the new standard.. that would make me more wealthy compared to pre crash. right?
    As one poster suggested, if we enter into such an extreme environment, your job may be the last thing you worry about. It may not even be worth your time to work your conventional job, but rather go farm, or craft things to barter. Without having some sense of what inflationary climate you're thinking of, it's just all extremely hypothetical.

    Generally speaking, yes, you would be paid the same regardless of dollar value. Depending on which data you consult, real wage (wages adjusted for inflation) growth is on the decline; what we make today buys is less than what people back in the 1950s-1980 would be able to buy. You can expect that trend to continue.

    Correct, the ratio of debt/income won't change. Rent? Hard to say, this would depend on your local laws, and whether owners can jack up rent. What's more likely to happen is that if it's a single unit property (like a house), the dollar figure of the property would rise, and it's more likely to get sold, as real estate generally does well during inflationary periods (maintains its value) and is inflation sensitive (commodities generally do well, also). Food tends to also be inflation sensitive, so you would see prices going up there before most other things, or at least would be more aware of the change.


    Correct, assuming whatever currency you happen to move into doesn't experience swings itself (unless you generally go for the safe currencies, it's hard to say what will happen with decent certainty). As to whether that would make you more "wealthy" is likely incorrect; you're not gaining value, you're simply losing less of it/maintaining it.

    An over simplified example
    $1 US dollar will get you 0.5 Swiss Franc
    You can convert all your savings of $100 to 50 Swiss Francs


    Day 1:
    -Loaf of bread costs $1 and 0.5 Swiss Franc
    -You can buy 100 loafs of bread with your $100 dollars, or 100 loafs for 50 Francs

    Inflation Hits
    Day 2:
    -Loaf or bread costs $10 and 0.5 Swiss Franc
    -You can buy 10 loafs of bread with your $100 dollars, but you can buy 100 loafs with your 50 Francs

    All you've done in converting to a safer currency, or commodity, or real estate, etc. is protect purchasing power/value.



    The misc has people who work in finance/know more about economics who can likely tell you what would really happen in the real world, and what policies governments and central banks would take in those situations, and I'm sure they'll chime in with more.
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  9. #9
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    when the dollar goes down, the gold goes up.
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    One thing you may want to look into is crypto like Bitcoin, it is more resistant to inflation and hyper inflation. There is another crypto, SXP that has a VISA debit for everyday purchases like buying protein powder or milk and bananas. SXP also has a VISA coming out.
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  11. #11
    Registered User TugOfPeace's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by whitepaper View Post
    As one poster suggested, if we enter into such an extreme environment, your job may be the last thing you worry about. It may not even be worth your time to work your conventional job, but rather go farm, or craft things to barter. Without having some sense of what inflationary climate you're thinking of, it's just all extremely hypothetical.

    Generally speaking, yes, you would be paid the same regardless of dollar value. Depending on which data you consult, real wage (wages adjusted for inflation) growth is on the decline; what we make today buys is less than what people back in the 1950s-1980 would be able to buy. You can expect that trend to continue.

    Correct, the ratio of debt/income won't change. Rent? Hard to say, this would depend on your local laws, and whether owners can jack up rent. What's more likely to happen is that if it's a single unit property (like a house), the dollar figure of the property would rise, and it's more likely to get sold, as real estate generally does well during inflationary periods (maintains its value) and is inflation sensitive (commodities generally do well, also). Food tends to also be inflation sensitive, so you would see prices going up there before most other things, or at least would be more aware of the change.


    Correct, assuming whatever currency you happen to move into doesn't experience swings itself (unless you generally go for the safe currencies, it's hard to say what will happen with decent certainty). As to whether that would make you more "wealthy" is likely incorrect; you're not gaining value, you're simply losing less of it/maintaining it.

    An over simplified example
    $1 US dollar will get you 0.5 Swiss Franc
    You can convert all your savings of $100 to 50 Swiss Francs


    Day 1:
    -Loaf of bread costs $1 and 0.5 Swiss Franc
    -You can buy 100 loafs of bread with your $100 dollars, or 100 loafs for 50 Francs

    Inflation Hits
    Day 2:
    -Loaf or bread costs $10 and 0.5 Swiss Franc
    -You can buy 10 loafs of bread with your $100 dollars, but you can buy 100 loafs with your 50 Francs

    All you've done in converting to a safer currency, or commodity, or real estate, etc. is protect purchasing power/value.



    The misc has people who work in finance/know more about economics who can likely tell you what would really happen in the real world, and what policies governments and central banks would take in those situations, and I'm sure they'll chime in with more.
    interesting. I'm scared (srs). I have a great job and save 60% of my income, but I also have debts. I'm sure my job wouldn't be affected, but I'm concerned about the potential crime. I'm stocking up on food now to last me about a year so I won't have to worry about that at least.
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    The velocity of money and the bond market are 2 important factors people are ignoring
    Even if they print trillions of dollars, a very low velocity of money can counteract that.
    A rising bond market is also a sign of deflation. There are mixed signals right now
    It's not as if all signs are pointing to long term hyper inflation.
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    Gold, silver, and cryptos are all ways to hedge. Even stocks may continue to go up, at least nominally.

    As others have said, none of this will matter much if we enter an extreme situation, but I don't see that happening.
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    Meh, I'm not that worried about it. I think it'll take some time for this **** to materially affect us. Yeah, the US is fiscally irresponsible, but so are most of the other powerful countries. We also still have the most innovative companies in the world and I'm speculating we will likely see a movement to bring a lot of those jobs back home after this pandemic and increasing concerns across both party lines about outsourcing everything in the name of free trade or due to security issues.

    Furthermore, tech is a major deflationary force and is now starting to attack some of the more expensive necessities, such as education. Healthcare is firmly in the crosshairs and housing I think will be the final domino to fall, but will be harder due to zoning restrictions.
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    Spot currency exchange rates do not overly correlate with purchasing power in your country, exchange rates can fluctuate wildly based on external demand and other factors. Purchasing power parity is what matters here and it remains relatively stable long term

    For example, the Canadian dollar was trading positively with the USD back in 2008, 2011, and 2012. Things weren’t magically cheaper here, although you could get some stuff cheaper if you were ordering and shipping over the border


    Long story short, domestic buying power doesn’t swing with spot exchange rates
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    Originally Posted by Bluestar92 View Post
    Inflation favors the debtor. You should get rid of CC debt immediately though.
    Good advice white hulk

    Op should listen up; debt is not where you want to be ever but especially in his (not going to happen anyways) hypothetical scenario
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    Originally Posted by Destor View Post
    Spot currency exchange rates do not overly correlate with purchasing power in your country, exchange rates can fluctuate wildly based on external demand and other factors. Purchasing power parity is what matters here and it remains relatively stable long term

    For example, the Canadian dollar was trading positively with the USD back in 2008, 2011, and 2012. Things weren’t magically cheaper here, although you could get some stuff cheaper if you were ordering and shipping over the border


    Long story short, domestic buying power doesn’t swing with spot exchange rates
    Not sure I agree with this, especially for a net importer country like ours. Imports are cheap right now partially because we have a strong dollar relative to other countries. If our dollar weakens, our ability to buy cheap electronics and other goods from countries decreases, which means our purchasing power will decrease.
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    Originally Posted by imbeingcereal View Post
    Not sure I agree with this, especially for a net importer country like ours. Imports are cheap right now partially because we have a strong dollar relative to other countries. If our dollar weakens, our ability to buy cheap electronics and other goods from countries decreases, which means our purchasing power will decrease.
    It might be a little different because the USD is the international benchmark for this stuff, but I imagine the concepts are the same. What electronics and other goods cost in your country does not necessarily correlate with what you'd pay if you sourced it in a different country and paid the spot exchange rate.

    This is why Purchasing Power Parity is important and you see things like the Big Mac Index and the iPad index, because domestic prices don't generally swing with exchange rates. Domestic buying power is driven by a lot of other factors, and many countries work to control their exchange rate to benefit from the situation. China is notorious for manipulating their currency to incentivize exports while their domestic purchasing power is nowhere near as bad as the exchange rate. The difference between the exchange rate and the PPP can be used as a gauge for how much the country benefits, and then you start talking about whether currencies are under or overvalued

    This is the Canadian Government's write-up about and published numbers for it

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...90426c-eng.htm
    Last edited by Destor; 08-04-2020 at 10:44 AM.
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