Official Spac Thread

[RobParks2M]

Thats still a huge gain if true

Lol. I took some losses last year fuking around with options. I made $2,000 in my account in 2020. I think I’m up 21k or so for 2021.

Thus far this year I’ve learned selling options is more fun than buying. And if you aren’t first you are fuggin last when it comes to spacs.

I sold some FTOC calls for 3/19 the $12.5 strike. I’m hoping we just end up closer to $13 at least otherwise it kinda covers me down to where I bought the last pile of shares. I’m cool if someone takes my shares though! The SPAC game seems to be getting tough. Too much attention from hedge funds who inflated pre-DA prices and there is no one left interested in buying once DA is announced. With so many people heading for the exits early it really suppresses share value even when good deals are made.

[Carbonfibre]

If CCIV (Lucid) is heading toward $20-22

I can't find reason not to buy stock and just hold long.

At $20 that would give them $30B market cap.

NKLA with no product any time soon is trading around $10B market cap.



Anyone else thinking on going long with Lucid?

[chino3]

If CCIV (Lucid) is heading toward $20-22

I can't find reason not to buy stock and just hold long.

At $20 that would give them $30B market cap.

NKLA with no product any time soon is trading around $10B market cap.



Anyone else thinking on going long with Lucid?

I think I will be. My cb is $24, but I have CC's that I can close out for $5 profit/share, so my CB would be $19. I can do 1 of 2 things

1) Just let it ride, but wait for weeklies, and then sell CC's (premiums should be decent enough)
2) Assuming it sees $30 again, and I can close out my CC for the aforementioned $5 profit, I can sell all but 900 out of my 2.5k shares (basically free due to profits) and just let those sit there as a forever hold.

Thoughts?

[ajctennis]

Yea, I have to believe we are getting close to a bottom. If warrants go below 10 I will buy.

If CCIV (Lucid) is heading toward $20-22

I can't find reason not to buy stock and just hold long.

At $20 that would give them $30B market cap.

NKLA with no product any time soon is trading around $10B market cap.



Anyone else thinking on going long with Lucid?

[Carbonfibre]

I think I will be. My cb is $24, but I have CC's that I can close out for $5 profit/share, so my CB would be $19. I can do 1 of 2 things

1) Just let it ride, but wait for weeklies, and then sell CC's (premiums should be decent enough)
2) Assuming it sees $30 again, and I can close out my CC for the aforementioned $5 profit, I can sell all but 900 out of my 2.5k shares (basically free due to profits) and just let those sit there as a forever hold.

Thoughts?

I like that play.

Was thinking of going just 1K-2K shares and just forget about it for while. Its feels like stock is oversold.

Since delivery is delayed there shouldn't be worry about bad magazine review any time soon.

Watched few interviews Peter (CEO) had.

Seems to be honest they are only looking at Mercedes S class as competition. Admits they are are premium car brand. Wasn't dancing around price is $120K.

Says they will scale to cheaper models after.

[Harry362]

need to take a step back and reassess

weeklies are opening up on on CCIV at least

[chino3]

need to take a step back and reassess

weeklies are opening up on on CCIV at least

Hnnnggggg

If I can close out my 3/19’s at $1.3 I’ll be hitting the weeklies hard! Premiums looking JUICY

[Harry362]

Weeklies on CCIV not going above $36 yet, Im gonna write calls at $40 until its called away

[RobParks2M]

Weeklies on CCIV not going above $36 yet, Im gonna write calls at $40 until its called away

Why not $35?

[RobParks2M]

What's going on with the market? This a routine correction, or are we in for worse? Bouncing back anytime soon?

Appears to be a period of deflation/cooling off. Deals haven't been that great the last week or 2 so there isn't any hype for anything. People are getting annoyed and short sighted b/c they thought they could just whip out 40% gains every other week. Now you gotta go back to how it was and wait for a deal to be announced to make money.

Bought 200 CRHC today 10.65 avg. Have orders for 200 more at 10.61 want to boost it to 1,000 I think they gotta get something biiiiiig

[RobParks2M]

I just don't understand why people are selling off numerous SPACs below $11. Also don't know why promising SPACs like BFT, ALTU, and IPOF are dipping. Those are fairly close from what I've heard.

close to what?

Regardless there are 2 lines of thought:
Either you believe there will be a great merger candidate in the SPAC you are holding or you don't and you sell.
OR
You sell if you think you can rebuy lower.

Might be seeing a lot of people deleveraging so that could be contributing to the dip now that easy gains are gone. I know there were a lot of people buying with 30% margin

[ajctennis]

It’s a shift to cyclicals, that’s why cruise lines and reopening plays are up large in last couple of days. The 10 yr is up and big money is expecting inflation and thus Powell being forced to raise rates even though he said he wouldn’t.

That combined with the cciv sell off which hurt the spac world.

[RobParks2M]

It’s a shift to cyclicals, that’s why cruise lines and reopening plays are up large in last couple of days. The 10 yr is up and big money is expecting inflation and thus Powell being forced to raise rates even though he said he wouldn’t.

That combined with the cciv sell off which hurt the spac world.

If we expect inflation then why aren't stocks going up? Powell said no rate raises till 2024

[Carbonfibre]

If we expect inflation then why aren't stocks going up? Powell said no rate raises till 2024

when yield bonds rise

companies borrowing cost goes up

this will hurt they expansion revenue etc.

right now market expectation is inflation is going up.


so things that have actual value oil / commodities etc are going to be worth more if inflation goes up

[RobParks2M]

when yield bonds rise

companies borrowing cost goes up

this will hurt they expansion revenue etc.

right now market expectation is inflation is going up.


so things that have actual value oil / commodities etc are going to be worth more if inflation goes up

Srs question though- how TF are yields rising when there should reasonably be a big shift into bonds as people leave equities?

[Carbonfibre]

Srs question though- how TF are yields rising when there should reasonably be a big shift into bonds as people leave equities?

basically this.

The sharp increase this month in U.S. government-bond yields is pressuring the stock market and forcing investors to more seriously confront the implications of rising interest rates.

The lift in yields largely reflects investor expectations of a strong economic recovery. However, the collateral damage could include higher borrowing costs for businesses, more options for investors who had seen few alternatives to stocks and less favorable valuation models for some hot technology shares, investors and analysts said.

As of Friday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stood at 1.344%, up from 1.157% just five trading sessions earlier and roughly 0.9% at the start of the year.

The S&P 500 fell 0.7% for the week, dragged down largely by technology stocks, which after big gains in recent years are seen as especially vulnerable to rising yields. Banks, meanwhile, rose as investors bet that higher long-term interest rates would make their lending activity more profitable.

“The market’s wobbled a little bit,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, an investment advisory and brokerage firm. “The market has principally been saying hooray, the pandemic is coming under control and the economy is starting to grow again. But now we’re actually starting to see the consequences of that in the form of higher rates, and I think the market’s processing that.”

Stuck near historic lows for most of last year, Treasury yields have climbed in recent months along with investors’ expectations for a strong economic rebound, driven in part by more debt-financed government spending.

The move over the past week caught investors’ attention because no specific catalyst was apparent. That raised the prospect that yields could rise more quickly and unpredictably than expected—an outcome that many believe would be more disruptive to other assets like stocks than a slow, orderly climb.

Rising yields, which result from falling bond prices, often reflect investor expectations of faster growth and an accompanying rise in inflation, which makes the interest payments of bonds less valuable. A pickup in inflation could also eventually lead the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates, though most investors don’t expect that to happen in the near term. More government borrowing could boost yields as well just by increasing the supply of bonds.

Investors this week will monitor the latest developments in Washington, where House Democrats hope to finalize a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, as well as figures on consumer spending and earnings from consumer companies like Home Depot Inc. and Macy’s Inc.

They will also keep watching Treasury yields, whose rise can hurt stocks in a few different ways, according to investors and analysts.

As yields move up, borrowing costs for most businesses should also rise, crimping profits. Higher yields could also prompt some risk-averse investors to sell stocks and return to government and corporate bonds, now that they will earn a more meaningful return.

Finally, many investors use the 10-year Treasury yield as a discount rate in formulas to value stocks. All else being equal, the expected cash flows of companies are considered less valuable when yields are higher. That could threaten many tech stocks because much of their earnings are expected to come further in the future.

Treasury yields remain extremely low by historical standards but aren’t so low relative to stock prices, some argue. In recent years, the 12-month forward-earnings yield of world technology companies—their expected earnings per share as a percentage of their stock price—has generally exceeded the 10-year Treasury yield by at least 2.5 percentage points.

But the yield differential has recently fallen below that threshold, a sign that the stock-market rally that was previously justified by ultralow bond yields “is turning irrational,” Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research, a Montreal-based investment research firm, wrote in a report last week.

Still, many investors aren’t too worried about rising yields, seeing them mostly as a welcome sign that the economic outlook is improving.

“Our base case is for the positives of a higher rate regime to outweigh the negatives,” said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors.

Many professional stock investors have already baked higher yields into their valuation models, and the largest tech companies generally have earnings that justify their prices, he added.

Even so, rising yields could cause investors to rethink their allocations to different sectors, Mr. Peron said.

His own team started adding exposure in the second half of last year to companies such as certain retail brands and online travel businesses that stand to benefit from an economic recovery and are less vulnerable to rising rates.

The impact on stocks depends a lot on how high and how quickly yields can rise, analysts said. A range of analysts forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will reach anywhere from 1.5% to 2% by the end of the year, as investors start preparing for future rate increases from the Fed.

So far, the sudden rise in yields reflects uncertainty about the future more than any tangible changes in the economy. Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that core consumer prices, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, were essentially flat for the previous two months.

Treasury yields fell at the time, only to begin their latest steep ascent just two days later.

photo from article that goes along with that



article is from

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-se...rs-11613919600

[RoyalRyy]

Holy chit I'm getting r@ped. CLOV is at 9.80 lmao. Didn't think it would tank like that. It's a bloodbath for me.

[RobParks2M]

Welp. back to NAV we go lmao wow.

EDIT: Selling everything in my portfolio that isn't SPAC. KR, WFC, CTYX, and BABA

[ajctennis]

Down huge today, but just going to hold and ride it out. Thank god for NAV.

[Harry362]

Down from $67k to $56.6k. Fuk this ****.

Sold my ALTU, BFT, IPOF, and PLTR, and kept 1 share of each. I'll buy in once I start to see them recover.

Wiped out nearly a month of gains.

Atleast I stopped the bleeding though, everything else is at NAV.

AVAN
BWAC
CCAC
CRHC
ETAC
MAAC
SCPE
SCVX

I dont even want to sign in. I know im prob sub 180k and I was at 232k on Monday

I began the year with 112k though so ehhh stocks don't always go up I guess. At least I have a good job

[mikusk]

Down from $67k to $56.6k. Fuk this ****.

Sold my ALTU, BFT, IPOF, and PLTR, and kept 1 share of each. I'll buy in once I start to see them recover.

Wiped out nearly a month of gains.

Atleast I stopped the bleeding though, everything else is at NAV.

AVAN
BWAC
CCAC
CRHC
ETAC
MAAC
SCPE
SCVX

sell low buy back high ?

[mikusk]

The alternative is diamond handing into a true bear market.. would rather cut my losses while I'm still ahead. Don't want to risk bag holding if the market is getting fuked long term after this.

I don't mind buying in a dollar higher.

doubled down on pltr today, will just wheel if bear comes

[adamsz]

Down huge today, but just going to hold and ride it out. Thank god for NAV.

this. Down about 7k today but majority of my holdings are within 10% of NAV so I'm really not too stressed.

Just my luck to come back from a 2 month market hiatus to put 90k before a big downturn lol. At least I was able to buy more stuff on the way down, wish I had just waited another week to reenter the markets. Can't time the markets tho so oh well.

IIRC there was similar SPAC-wide bleeds both after NKLA and SHLL had big sell offs post-merger, so I think the disappointment of CCIV not continuing to trend upwards after DA spooked a lot of the newer SPAC crowd who then pulled out of their other spac holdings. Just me speculating.

[adamsz]

The alternative is diamond handing into a true bear market.. would rather cut my losses while I'm still ahead. Don't want to risk bag holding if the market is getting fuked long term after this.

I don't mind buying in a dollar higher.

a true bear market?

people are getting vaccinated around the world. Covid cases and hospitalizations both dropping significantly. People eager to get out and resume normal life, and that's within sight at this point.

Don't see why we would enter a true bear market when the energy seems to point towards pent up consumer demand to get out and spend once more and more restrictions are lifted.

[RobParks2M]

Down huge today, but just going to hold and ride it out. Thank god for NAV.

Sold my PTICU at 10.90 (no gains lmao) to buy things that are suuuuuper near NAV. Didn't get the CRHC order I placed at 10.33 though or the AVAN order I placed at 10.32 just barely too slow freeing up cash fuk lmao.


ETAC down to 10.08 or something crazy like that. Holy cow.

[SazabiBrah]

Account went from $100000 to $210000 to $160000 in these last 2 months. Sitting mostly cash now until this shiet is over. Phuck Biden's economy

[mikusk]

people starting to panic, kind of a buy signal imo

[RobParks2M]

Account went from $100000 to $210000 to $160000 in these last 2 months. Sitting mostly cash now until this shiet is over. Phuck Biden's economy

Get close to NAV and you'll be fine. Took a $1,600 haircut today cuz of stupid options I bought (ayy lmao) and other various SPAC losses. Did the math and I can only drop another $4300 till I hit $10 on EVERYTHING including FTOC (not including the gains I'd have from the covered calls). So another 6% loss possible if everything went to NAV. I feel pretty good about that.


People are dumb and selling their stuff near NAV- not sure what tf they are buying or if they are just trying to horde cash. Either way there are some HUGE deals to be had right now.

CRHC at 10.40
ETAC 10.20
MAAC 10.18 if you feelin frisky

COOL (kinda a meme) 10.06

Something I think could be a great deal is DLCAU at $10.40ish obviously still units as the "U" implies. each unit gets 1/2 a warrant. If commons trade at 10.20 post split that would imply fairly decent warrant gains if they trade at even $1. The split is coming 3/5 (next Friday) btw. Thoughts on this?

Last potential buy PTICW---Warrants are at their lowest I've ever seen at $1.50 I might pick 500 of them up since I sold the units.


Also, IMO commons <$10.50 are going to be the first thing to recover. Everyone will sell other things or panic dump warrants for the safety of commons. Anyone who likes spacs should consider getting into good teams the closer to $10 the better obviously.

[RobParks2M]

All the AH orders I’m putting through are fukking buying. 200 more crhc at 10.30

Partial fill of maac at 10.15

[NoScrubz]

CCIV man.... CCIV WHY!!!!!!