Long Term Investing Thread

[Hoop_Dreams]

I like (and own) both Tencent and Alibaba. Tencent has the consistent revenue stream from their gaming biz that I really like. They both are deep into mobile payments and will continue to get deeper into the Chinese banking and credit business. Basically both are stocks that still have huge growth potential. I still think Tencent is more of an unknown globally than BABA so I think there is more room for a big run up as people discover it.

I prefer investing in Chinese companies rather than SE Asian ones. The market there is too fragmented with each country trying to boost their own companies. Even though the population is huge, I don’t see giants like Tencent and Ali emerging from the region.

You worried about this at all? https://twitter.com/FT/status/1286151854074875909

BABA and TCEHY both took dips today.

[Baylorballs]

This market has been like Slot Machine going bonkers the past few months... from just a Macro view, I don't seen it lasting.

Uncertainty has got to creep back in w/ a mix of rising Covid numbers ( in the freaking SUMMER time....), non-sense Media, and an election that's going to get heated and nasty.

China relations aren't helping either...

[SazabiBrah]

This market has been like Slot Machine going bonkers the past few months... from just a Macro view, I don't seen it lasting.

Uncertainty has got to creep back in w/ a mix of rising Covid numbers ( in the freaking SUMMER time....), non-sense Media, and an election that's going to get heated and nasty.

China relations aren't helping either...

I just sold everything a few minutes ago srs. I'm waiting until some good news comes out

[oaktownabroad]

This is a long term investing thread. Dips and bumps don’t matter at all when your timeline is 20-30 years. Trading and investing are 2 different things and involve completely different strategies.

[aberry33]

Anyone watch the pharmaceutical industry?

I've been adding to ALXN lately. I know PE is an outdated metric for some but it's been hovering around 10. About half the industry average. I know that can also sometimes be a red flag.

It's a small position so if it heads south not a huge deal at the moment but for a bio it's got some intriguing numbers from a value perspective. In my mostly uneducated opinion lol.

Analysts predicting a -4% drop in YOY earnings when they report on the 30th, been wondering how much of that is affecting it already.

[chino3]

This is a long term investing thread. Dips and bumps don’t matter at all when your timeline is 20-30 years. Trading and investing are 2 different things and involve completely different strategies.

You can take advantage of dips and trim profits on long holds just fine. You’re a fool if you think otherwise...

[oaktownabroad]

You can take advantage of dips and trim profits on long holds just fine. You’re a fool if you think otherwise...

I'm not smart enough to time the market, that's my problem.

[Baylorballs]

I'm not smart enough to time the market, that's my problem.

I think a small part of it is intelligence, the rest of it is "Who do you know, what connects you have, etc. "

We're fooling ourselves if you don't think there's multiple tiers of insider trading going on. A friend of a cousin of a girl friend learns some information that could make you tens of thousands of dollars in a week.

Welp....

[RobParks2M]

I'm not smart enough to time the market, that's my problem.

I didn't used to believe it, but market psychology is huge. When the "investment" thread has 5+ pages worth of comments in a day bragging about making money or things going to the moon get ready for a dump. When people are like "take profits" "We going lower" "wait to buy" that is the time to buy.

Always do the opposite of the "smart" people CREW

[_zman]

Since the S&P 500 & QQQ have the same major holdings at the top, how would the idea of taking QQQ as the core and surrounding it with sector-specific ETFs (consumer staples, utilities, healthcare) be? In this way, you would be choosing the weighting for each sector based on your own preference instead of being subjected to the weighting of the broad stock market index funds? This is probably the strategy that I will use.

I'm doing this, but I'm also adding small and mid cap. They actually outperform the S&P 500 in the long-run and so do certain sectors, but the S&P will always be a major holding for me.

[PattBattmann]

I'm doing this, but I'm also adding small and mid cap. They actually outperform the S&P 500 in the long-run and so do certain sectors, but the S&P will always be a major holding for me.

I have been considering the smaller caps, as well. I know that they are riskier, but we are in this thing for the long haul.

[A-man]

You can take advantage of dips and trim profits on long holds just fine. You’re a fool if you think otherwise...

That’s called rebalancing.

[wave_length]

Since there is a lot of discussion in this thread about active investing = individual market timing and stock picking, I would like to post a reminder of what most scientific studies have concluded about the topic: passive investing works better.

The only real scientific controversy that remains is whether or not there are specific systematic factors that offer exploitable bonuses in the long run. There are hundreds such factors described in literature and investigated in scientific studies with basically about four or five remaining to be realistically exploited. E.g. value factor or small cap factor. Since the volatility of strategies which systematically exploit one or more of this factors (e.g. multi factor ETFs) is higher than a traditional purely passive strategy and often times go contrary to the market for many years, their superiority is still questioned, even in the scientific community. Those factors, if they exist at all, once discovered and exploited will be arbitrated away, is the notion of most critics.

Whether a long term "passive" investment strategy does use factor investing strategies or not, it will still perform better than market timing and/or stock picking based on individual preferences, instincts, or ideas.

[PattBattmann]

Since there is a lot of discussion in this thread about active investing = individual market timing and stock picking, I would like to post a reminder of what most scientific studies have concluded about the topic: passive investing works better.

The only real scientific controversy that remains is whether or not there are specific systematic factors that offer exploitable bonuses in the long run. There are hundreds such factors described in literature and investigated in scientific studies with basically about four or five remaining to be realistically exploited. E.g. value factor or small cap factor. Since the volatility of strategies which systematically exploit one or more of this factors (e.g. multi factor ETFs) is higher than a traditional purely passive strategy and often times go contrary to the market for many years, their superiority is still questioned, even in the scientific community. Those factors, if they exist at all, once discovered and exploited will be arbitrated away, is the notion of most critics.

Whether a long term "passive" investment strategy does use factor investing strategies or not, it will still perform better than market timing and/or stock picking based on individual preferences, instincts, or ideas.

So, ultimately, we should still put the majority of our money in a broad total market index fund, right?

[wave_length]

So, ultimately, we should still put the majority of our money in a broad total market index fund, right?

That‘s what I would suggest.

[A-man]

That‘s what I would suggest.

Me too. It’s just not as fun

I would also mention again that regular rebalancing is still required. Passive doesn’t just mean let it sit forever. This is important.

[wave_length]

Me too. It’s just not as fun

I would also mention again that regular rebalancing is still required. Passive doesn’t just mean let it sit forever. This is important.

With just one ETF, you only need to rebalance your stock/cash ratio though. The term „passive“ is misleading anyway, but I‘ve not come across a better one yet.

[imbeingcereal]

Anyone watch the pharmaceutical industry?

I've been adding to ALXN lately. I know PE is an outdated metric for some but it's been hovering around 10. About half the industry average. I know that can also sometimes be a red flag.

It's a small position so if it heads south not a huge deal at the moment but for a bio it's got some intriguing numbers from a value perspective. In my mostly uneducated opinion lol.

Analysts predicting a -4% drop in YOY earnings when they report on the 30th, been wondering how much of that is affecting it already.

Pharmaceuticals are all about pipeline and the probability of a drug being approved. What's ALXN's pipeline like and what conditions do they treat? That's going to be the basis for your valuation

[_zman]

I have been considering the smaller caps, as well. I know that they are riskier, but we are in this thing for the long haul.

Consider some are at a discount in comparison to the S&P, it's a solid time to buy these and other sectors. They have historical trends of following the S&P 500 at a later date and some exceed as stated previously. My returns are 12.5% since 01/2017, would be curious how others are doing in comparison. That's with about 50% small cap and 50% S&P 500 over that time period. I started putting more holdings in the small cap in 2018ish and it's now like 55% in small.

[Travis99]

AAPL without a doubt. Wish I would have bought it a week ago.

[chino3]

That’s called rebalancing.

Ok?

[_zman]

AAPL without a doubt. Wish I would have bought it a week ago.

I try to avoid investing in Chinese goods.

[Baylorballs]

It kinda makes me mad legacy companies (meaning companies in business more than 10-20 years) are getting wrecked because they were making money and their prices/business model reflected that. Now to replace them there are technology giants that fuk their employees over hard (looking at you Amazon and Tesla) that work their employees into the ground and don't make a profit so they can undercut existing businesses with the expectation they can jack up prices and margins later. Legacy car/truck makers are getting destroyed because they pay decently and have retirement plans for their employees who are unionized.

THIS x 1 million. Amazon is getting so good at what they do, it's surely crushing the competition. My wife knows this, yet, orders 10-15 items a month from them cause of covid worried and that they are so quick and efficient. and we own their stock. Can't beat them, join'em.

The future of wealth is really becoming top-heavy.

And that's usually only good if it's a 25 year top heavy girl.

[Wheyvid]

THIS x 1 million. Amazon is getting so good at what they do, it's surely crushing the competition. My wife knows this, yet, orders 10-15 items a month from them cause of covid worried and that they are so quick and efficient. and we own their stock. Can't beat them, join'em.

The future of wealth is really becoming top-heavy.

And that's usually only good if it's a 25 year top heavy girl.

Honestly I focusing on investing in technology companies, biotechnology, and manufacturing. the latter two biotechnology and manufacturing are a tad bit risky. But SAAS(Software As a Service) companies are pretty nice because to scale all they need are more servers which they can get with AWS. In addition a lot of these companies are run by engineers and not business majors; thus, their approaches tend to be more analytical and less full with bull****. I am a bit bias given that I operate in software/tech. These companies are the ones that were the most resilient to the whole COVID-19 pandemic. Not only their values remained but they increase since their operations are digital.

Don't believe see it for yourself.
https://www.bvp.com/bvp-nasdaq-emerging-cloud-index

In addition they grown considerably compared to NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones.

[headturner1]

AAPL without a doubt. Wish I would have bought it a week ago.

Bought a chunk years back @ 90, feels damn good brahs.


As an aside, I’m lagging in bond etfs big time. I’m leaning toward going almost all bnd, with maybe a little bit of tlt.

Any suggestions? I want low expense ratio for the most part.

[Hoop_Dreams]

Cathie Wood loaded up on TDOC yesterday & today on the dip. She's been absolutely money and I like the idea of telehealth so I tailed her on it.

Also like that she snatched up 80 mil worth of FB today.

[frutistafreeze]

I know this may not be the best place to ask but I figured someone would be able to answer. I've just started looking into index funds/mutual funds etc. and already have an account set up with TD but I noticed they charge a commission for certain funds (VTSAX in this case). I've tried searching and cant seem to get an definitive answer on how this works. Will I be charged this $49.99 commission every time I buy into a fund or is it a one time fee and then I can just keep adding more money into it monthly? As I said, I am new to all this but from what i've seen everyone seems to praise Vanguard funds but most of these seem to be subject to a commission fee on TD, is this fee worth it in the long run or should I stick with some of the commission-free funds they have?

[BrianK.]

I know this may not be the best place to ask but I figured someone would be able to answer. I've just started looking into index funds/mutual funds etc. and already have an account set up with TD but I noticed they charge a commission for certain funds (VTSAX in this case). I've tried searching and cant seem to get an definitive answer on how this works. Will I be charged this $49.99 commission every time I buy into a fund or is it a one time fee and then I can just keep adding more money into it monthly? As I said, I am new to all this but from what i've seen everyone seems to praise Vanguard funds but most of these seem to be subject to a commission fee on TD, is this fee worth it in the long run or should I stick with some of the commission-free funds they have?

I can’t answer your question on how buying into a fund through another brokerage company works. However you can buy the equivalent ETF for free. $VTI is the ticker symbol of the ETF you would be looking to buy.

ETFs are more tax efficient if it’s outside of a tax advantage account (like IRAs).

Buying an ETF is a little harder than putting money into VTSAX.

2 Questions:

1. Is this a Roth IRA?
2. Are you dead set on using TD?

Ask away bro bro...any question you have, me or someone else will know the answer. Or at the very least I will know where to look for the answer/point you in the right direction.

[2011change]

Sup brahs, I have a Vanguard account for my 401k thru employer (I get that 8 percent match as well from employer). What are stuff that I can invest in and whats your recommendations?

[lockdev]

Sup brahs, I have a Vanguard account for my 401k thru employer (I get that 8 percent match as well from employer). What are stuff that I can invest in and whats your recommendations?

Mix it up with total stock market, total international market, total bonds, and total international bonds. I might include some money market to be safe, but remember that cash is risky right now with all the printing. I'd have most of my money in total stock market depending on how long you plan to keep it there.

Let it ride for 20+ years and profit.