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  1. #121
    test the limits RobParks2M's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SouthDakotaBrah View Post
    The S&P 500 has the same overvalued tech companies that the NASDAQ has

    Valuations matter, but traditional value metrics like P/E don't neatly apply to tech companies with high growth. Ideally I'd like to buy tech companies with low price/40-year earnings growth... a lot of tech companies that look overvalued based on traditional value metrics would look great if you could project those same metrics 10-20+ years out. I think technology will drive most of the future growth in our economy because thats where the largest opportunities exist for value to be added; looking at earnings one year out doesn't tell the full picture for companies invested in areas that will see double digit growth over the next decade.
    It kinda makes me mad legacy companies (meaning companies in business more than 10-20 years) are getting wrecked because they were making money and their prices/business model reflected that. Now to replace them there are technology giants that fuk their employees over hard (looking at you Amazon and Tesla) that work their employees into the ground and don't make a profit so they can undercut existing businesses with the expectation they can jack up prices and margins later. Legacy car/truck makers are getting destroyed because they pay decently and have retirement plans for their employees who are unionized.
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  2. #122
    Registered User imbeingcereal's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SouthDakotaBrah View Post
    The S&P 500 has the same overvalued tech companies that the NASDAQ has

    Valuations matter, but traditional value metrics like P/E don't neatly apply to tech companies with high growth. Ideally I'd like to buy tech companies with low price/40-year earnings growth... a lot of tech companies that look overvalued based on traditional value metrics would look great if you could project those same metrics 10-20+ years out. I think technology will drive most of the future growth in our economy because thats where the largest opportunities exist for value to be added; looking at earnings one year out doesn't tell the full picture for companies invested in areas that will see double digit growth over the next decade.
    S&P has them, sure, but at what weight? It's definitely a lot less by virtue of having 500 companies, including financials, than the Nasdaq100, correct? That's mainly my point there.

    You do have a point that there's such a thing as diWORSEification - like I think energy is ****ed for a long while and don't want much of that. It comes down essentially to risk appetite. I think tech consistently being the value driver going forward is a bet of a risk given how much it's run up and how much people have bid up the stocks, but only time will tell if I'm right. I've been wrong the last 10 years, so going off history, you're probably right and I'm wrong.
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  3. #123
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    Since the S&P 500 & QQQ have the same major holdings at the top, how would the idea of taking QQQ as the core and surrounding it with sector-specific ETFs (consumer staples, utilities, healthcare) be? In this way, you would be choosing the weighting for each sector based on your own preference instead of being subjected to the weighting of the broad stock market index funds? This is probably the strategy that I will use.
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  4. #124
    Pro-Romo Hoop_Dreams's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by oaktownabroad View Post
    I like (and own) both Tencent and Alibaba. Tencent has the consistent revenue stream from their gaming biz that I really like. They both are deep into mobile payments and will continue to get deeper into the Chinese banking and credit business. Basically both are stocks that still have huge growth potential. I still think Tencent is more of an unknown globally than BABA so I think there is more room for a big run up as people discover it.

    I prefer investing in Chinese companies rather than SE Asian ones. The market there is too fragmented with each country trying to boost their own companies. Even though the population is huge, I don’t see giants like Tencent and Ali emerging from the region.
    You worried about this at all? https://twitter.com/FT/status/1286151854074875909

    BABA and TCEHY both took dips today.
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  5. #125
    Registered User Baylorballs's Avatar
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    This market has been like Slot Machine going bonkers the past few months... from just a Macro view, I don't seen it lasting.

    Uncertainty has got to creep back in w/ a mix of rising Covid numbers ( in the freaking SUMMER time....), non-sense Media, and an election that's going to get heated and nasty.

    China relations aren't helping either...
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  6. #126
    Registered User SazabiBrah's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Baylorballs View Post
    This market has been like Slot Machine going bonkers the past few months... from just a Macro view, I don't seen it lasting.

    Uncertainty has got to creep back in w/ a mix of rising Covid numbers ( in the freaking SUMMER time....), non-sense Media, and an election that's going to get heated and nasty.

    China relations aren't helping either...
    I just sold everything a few minutes ago srs. I'm waiting until some good news comes out
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  7. #127
    Registered User oaktownabroad's Avatar
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    This is a long term investing thread. Dips and bumps don’t matter at all when your timeline is 20-30 years. Trading and investing are 2 different things and involve completely different strategies.
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  8. #128
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    Anyone watch the pharmaceutical industry?

    I've been adding to ALXN lately. I know PE is an outdated metric for some but it's been hovering around 10. About half the industry average. I know that can also sometimes be a red flag.

    It's a small position so if it heads south not a huge deal at the moment but for a bio it's got some intriguing numbers from a value perspective. In my mostly uneducated opinion lol.

    Analysts predicting a -4% drop in YOY earnings when they report on the 30th, been wondering how much of that is affecting it already.
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  9. #129
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by oaktownabroad View Post
    This is a long term investing thread. Dips and bumps don’t matter at all when your timeline is 20-30 years. Trading and investing are 2 different things and involve completely different strategies.
    You can take advantage of dips and trim profits on long holds just fine. You’re a fool if you think otherwise...
    "It won't get better, just different."
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  10. #130
    Registered User oaktownabroad's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chino3 View Post
    You can take advantage of dips and trim profits on long holds just fine. You’re a fool if you think otherwise...
    I'm not smart enough to time the market, that's my problem.
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  11. #131
    Registered User Baylorballs's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by oaktownabroad View Post
    I'm not smart enough to time the market, that's my problem.
    I think a small part of it is intelligence, the rest of it is "Who do you know, what connects you have, etc. "

    We're fooling ourselves if you don't think there's multiple tiers of insider trading going on. A friend of a cousin of a girl friend learns some information that could make you tens of thousands of dollars in a week.

    Welp....
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  12. #132
    test the limits RobParks2M's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by oaktownabroad View Post
    I'm not smart enough to time the market, that's my problem.
    I didn't used to believe it, but market psychology is huge. When the "investment" thread has 5+ pages worth of comments in a day bragging about making money or things going to the moon get ready for a dump. When people are like "take profits" "We going lower" "wait to buy" that is the time to buy.

    Always do the opposite of the "smart" people CREW
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  13. #133
    Trancebrah _zman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by PattBattmann View Post
    Since the S&P 500 & QQQ have the same major holdings at the top, how would the idea of taking QQQ as the core and surrounding it with sector-specific ETFs (consumer staples, utilities, healthcare) be? In this way, you would be choosing the weighting for each sector based on your own preference instead of being subjected to the weighting of the broad stock market index funds? This is probably the strategy that I will use.
    I'm doing this, but I'm also adding small and mid cap. They actually outperform the S&P 500 in the long-run and so do certain sectors, but the S&P will always be a major holding for me.
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  14. #134
    Registered User PattBattmann's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by _zman View Post
    I'm doing this, but I'm also adding small and mid cap. They actually outperform the S&P 500 in the long-run and so do certain sectors, but the S&P will always be a major holding for me.
    I have been considering the smaller caps, as well. I know that they are riskier, but we are in this thing for the long haul.
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  15. #135
    Registered User A-man's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chino3 View Post
    You can take advantage of dips and trim profits on long holds just fine. You’re a fool if you think otherwise...
    That’s called rebalancing.
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  16. #136
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    Since there is a lot of discussion in this thread about active investing = individual market timing and stock picking, I would like to post a reminder of what most scientific studies have concluded about the topic: passive investing works better.

    The only real scientific controversy that remains is whether or not there are specific systematic factors that offer exploitable bonuses in the long run. There are hundreds such factors described in literature and investigated in scientific studies with basically about four or five remaining to be realistically exploited. E.g. value factor or small cap factor. Since the volatility of strategies which systematically exploit one or more of this factors (e.g. multi factor ETFs) is higher than a traditional purely passive strategy and often times go contrary to the market for many years, their superiority is still questioned, even in the scientific community. Those factors, if they exist at all, once discovered and exploited will be arbitrated away, is the notion of most critics.

    Whether a long term "passive" investment strategy does use factor investing strategies or not, it will still perform better than market timing and/or stock picking based on individual preferences, instincts, or ideas.
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  17. #137
    Registered User PattBattmann's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wave_length View Post
    Since there is a lot of discussion in this thread about active investing = individual market timing and stock picking, I would like to post a reminder of what most scientific studies have concluded about the topic: passive investing works better.

    The only real scientific controversy that remains is whether or not there are specific systematic factors that offer exploitable bonuses in the long run. There are hundreds such factors described in literature and investigated in scientific studies with basically about four or five remaining to be realistically exploited. E.g. value factor or small cap factor. Since the volatility of strategies which systematically exploit one or more of this factors (e.g. multi factor ETFs) is higher than a traditional purely passive strategy and often times go contrary to the market for many years, their superiority is still questioned, even in the scientific community. Those factors, if they exist at all, once discovered and exploited will be arbitrated away, is the notion of most critics.

    Whether a long term "passive" investment strategy does use factor investing strategies or not, it will still perform better than market timing and/or stock picking based on individual preferences, instincts, or ideas.
    So, ultimately, we should still put the majority of our money in a broad total market index fund, right?
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    Originally Posted by PattBattmann View Post
    So, ultimately, we should still put the majority of our money in a broad total market index fund, right?
    That‘s what I would suggest.
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    Registered User A-man's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wave_length View Post
    That‘s what I would suggest.
    Me too. It’s just not as fun

    I would also mention again that regular rebalancing is still required. Passive doesn’t just mean let it sit forever. This is important.
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  20. #140
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    Originally Posted by A-man View Post
    Me too. It’s just not as fun

    I would also mention again that regular rebalancing is still required. Passive doesn’t just mean let it sit forever. This is important.
    With just one ETF, you only need to rebalance your stock/cash ratio though. The term „passive“ is misleading anyway, but I‘ve not come across a better one yet.
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  21. #141
    Registered User imbeingcereal's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by aberry33 View Post
    Anyone watch the pharmaceutical industry?

    I've been adding to ALXN lately. I know PE is an outdated metric for some but it's been hovering around 10. About half the industry average. I know that can also sometimes be a red flag.

    It's a small position so if it heads south not a huge deal at the moment but for a bio it's got some intriguing numbers from a value perspective. In my mostly uneducated opinion lol.

    Analysts predicting a -4% drop in YOY earnings when they report on the 30th, been wondering how much of that is affecting it already.
    Pharmaceuticals are all about pipeline and the probability of a drug being approved. What's ALXN's pipeline like and what conditions do they treat? That's going to be the basis for your valuation
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  22. #142
    Trancebrah _zman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by PattBattmann View Post
    I have been considering the smaller caps, as well. I know that they are riskier, but we are in this thing for the long haul.
    Consider some are at a discount in comparison to the S&P, it's a solid time to buy these and other sectors. They have historical trends of following the S&P 500 at a later date and some exceed as stated previously. My returns are 12.5% since 01/2017, would be curious how others are doing in comparison. That's with about 50% small cap and 50% S&P 500 over that time period. I started putting more holdings in the small cap in 2018ish and it's now like 55% in small.
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  23. #143
    Platinum Travis99's Avatar
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    AAPL without a doubt. Wish I would have bought it a week ago.
    “People don’t have ideas, ideas have people.”


    ~Carl Jung
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  24. #144
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by A-man View Post
    That’s called rebalancing.
    Ok?
    "It won't get better, just different."
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    Trancebrah _zman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Travis99 View Post
    AAPL without a doubt. Wish I would have bought it a week ago.
    I try to avoid investing in Chinese goods.
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  26. #146
    Registered User Baylorballs's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    It kinda makes me mad legacy companies (meaning companies in business more than 10-20 years) are getting wrecked because they were making money and their prices/business model reflected that. Now to replace them there are technology giants that fuk their employees over hard (looking at you Amazon and Tesla) that work their employees into the ground and don't make a profit so they can undercut existing businesses with the expectation they can jack up prices and margins later. Legacy car/truck makers are getting destroyed because they pay decently and have retirement plans for their employees who are unionized.
    THIS x 1 million. Amazon is getting so good at what they do, it's surely crushing the competition. My wife knows this, yet, orders 10-15 items a month from them cause of covid worried and that they are so quick and efficient. and we own their stock. Can't beat them, join'em.

    The future of wealth is really becoming top-heavy.

    And that's usually only good if it's a 25 year top heavy girl.
    Just trying hard to not be a fat sack-o-chit
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  27. #147
    Registered User Wheyvid's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Baylorballs View Post
    THIS x 1 million. Amazon is getting so good at what they do, it's surely crushing the competition. My wife knows this, yet, orders 10-15 items a month from them cause of covid worried and that they are so quick and efficient. and we own their stock. Can't beat them, join'em.

    The future of wealth is really becoming top-heavy.

    And that's usually only good if it's a 25 year top heavy girl.
    Honestly I focusing on investing in technology companies, biotechnology, and manufacturing. the latter two biotechnology and manufacturing are a tad bit risky. But SAAS(Software As a Service) companies are pretty nice because to scale all they need are more servers which they can get with AWS. In addition a lot of these companies are run by engineers and not business majors; thus, their approaches tend to be more analytical and less full with bull****. I am a bit bias given that I operate in software/tech. These companies are the ones that were the most resilient to the whole COVID-19 pandemic. Not only their values remained but they increase since their operations are digital.

    Don't believe see it for yourself.
    https://www.bvp.com/bvp-nasdaq-emerging-cloud-index

    In addition they grown considerably compared to NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones.
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  28. #148
    Registered User headturner1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Travis99 View Post
    AAPL without a doubt. Wish I would have bought it a week ago.

    Bought a chunk years back @ 90, feels damn good brahs.


    As an aside, I’m lagging in bond etfs big time. I’m leaning toward going almost all bnd, with maybe a little bit of tlt.

    Any suggestions? I want low expense ratio for the most part.
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  29. #149
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    Cathie Wood loaded up on TDOC yesterday & today on the dip. She's been absolutely money and I like the idea of telehealth so I tailed her on it.

    Also like that she snatched up 80 mil worth of FB today.
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  30. #150
    Registered User frutistafreeze's Avatar
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    I know this may not be the best place to ask but I figured someone would be able to answer. I've just started looking into index funds/mutual funds etc. and already have an account set up with TD but I noticed they charge a commission for certain funds (VTSAX in this case). I've tried searching and cant seem to get an definitive answer on how this works. Will I be charged this $49.99 commission every time I buy into a fund or is it a one time fee and then I can just keep adding more money into it monthly? As I said, I am new to all this but from what i've seen everyone seems to praise Vanguard funds but most of these seem to be subject to a commission fee on TD, is this fee worth it in the long run or should I stick with some of the commission-free funds they have?
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