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  1. #91
    Registered User aberry33's Avatar
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    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24E13G

    Nothing in that article that is probably new news to anyone but it was a quick read and the PE chart was interesting.
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  2. #92
    I actually lift AA43560's Avatar
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    Thoughts on buying airlines now?

    Delta, jet blue, soutgwest, AA
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  3. #93
    Quadfather StackingPlates's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by AA43560 View Post
    Thoughts on buying airlines now?

    Delta, jet blue, soutgwest, AA
    It depends upon your risk tolerance, as this sector is high risk but the potential for high reward.

    There are certainly a few (e.g. LUV, SAVE, JBLU) that may be poised to recover quicker than others due to their business models and financials, but I'd stay away unless you have a strong constitution (very volatile from day to day).

    Those like AAL, DAL, and UAL are global carriers which have the potential to be hit the hardest due to travel restrictions and the chance that business travel goes down as folks become more comfortable with telecommute technologies.
    Last edited by StackingPlates; 07-14-2020 at 10:06 AM.
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  4. #94
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    Originally Posted by EpicenterRex View Post
    2 people have said RTX

    I work for Pratt & Whitney (who they bought out) and I can confirm we have some REALLY awesome commercial engines coming out and another few defense engines. RTX is a GREAT buy. Don't swing trade it, don't look at it and sell for 2 weeks, but I can confidently say if you buy RTX and hold for 10-15-20 years, when you're ready to sell in 15 years you'll be like "Jesus, look at that profit!'
    How much RTX do you own?
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  5. #95
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by AA43560 View Post
    Thoughts on buying airlines now?

    Delta, jet blue, soutgwest, AA
    If you’re truly looking long term, as in, you would be fine dumping your money and not even looking at your account for a year or more? Sure. It’s gonna be a bumpy ride, and you are bound to see some red, but ultimately the right companies will reward you for your patience. Keep in mind, the CEO of Delta just said the other day that he doesn’t see things returning to “normal” with concern to flying, for another 18-24 months...

    That said, there is a lot of uncertainty, especially with a highly contentious election coming. I would only consider 2 airlines to invest in, LUV and ALK.
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  6. #96
    test the limits RobParks2M's Avatar
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    ^Chino right about the best 2 airliners. I am incredibly hesitant because people are losing jobs leading to less vacations leading to less travel. Also, I think a lot of businesses are realizing that in person meeting that requires travel aren't really any better than doing a meeting via video conference so I think there will be significantly less business travel too. Airlines doing a lot of transcontinental flights will get dicked worst and longest hence part of why LUV and ALK on top of having the best financials are also likely to succeed since most of their flights are mainland US if I remember reading correctly (I think ALK does a lot of Hawaii flights tho so that might not be great, but idk the % of flights there or if it is significant to their business).
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  7. #97
    samo neČural bajo moj cromofo's Avatar
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    I've been buying heavily into RTX and NET, as well as a sprinkle of NOK, ERIC and JMIA. Also added a 2nd ETF to my portfolio, now I have VWCE(ftse all-world acc.) and INRG(green energy dist.).

    I think RTX will be worth at least double in the next 2-3 years. NET is a long term hold. NOK and ERIC are gonna be one of the biggest choices for 5G tech, at least here in Europe. JMIA is a gamble, could be huge, could be ****, we'll see. VWCE and INRG holding for the next 20-30 years.

    I think I'm gonna settle on these stocks and consolidate the ratios to my liking. Looking at about 70% etfs and 30% stocks? Any suggestions?
    Last edited by cromofo; 07-16-2020 at 03:47 AM.
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  8. #98
    SUPERNOVA SouthDakotaBrah's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by cromofo View Post
    I've been buying heavily into RTX and NET, as well as a sprinkle of NOK, ERIC and JMIA. Also added a 2nd ETF to my portfolio, now I have VWCE(ftse all-world acc.) and INRG(green energy dist.).

    I think RTX will be worth at least double in the next 2-3 years. NET is a long term hold. NOK and ERIC are gonna be one of the biggest choices for 5G tech, at least here in Europe. JMIA is a gamble, could be huge, could be ****, we'll see. VWCE and INRG holding for the next 20-30 years.

    I think I'm gonna settle on these stocks and consolidate the ratios to my liking. Looking at about 70% etfs and 30% stocks? Any suggestions?
    For ETFs, most of my money is in QQQ and VOO (NASDAQ and S&P) which should see ~10% annual YoY return. My ratio is similar to yours
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  9. #99
    Registered User Destor's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    ^Chino right about the best 2 airliners. I am incredibly hesitant because people are losing jobs leading to less vacations leading to less travel. Also, I think a lot of businesses are realizing that in person meeting that requires travel aren't really any better than doing a meeting via video conference so I think there will be significantly less business travel too. Airlines doing a lot of transcontinental flights will get dicked worst and longest hence part of why LUV and ALK on top of having the best financials are also likely to succeed since most of their flights are mainland US if I remember reading correctly (I think ALK does a lot of Hawaii flights tho so that might not be great, but idk the % of flights there or if it is significant to their business).
    IMHO business travel will likely return over the long term. If I was choosing between a company that will fly me around the world for work (and the adventure / experience that comes with it) or a company that does everything through Zoom or Teams, I know which I'd choose

    Getting paid to travel internationally for work is a significant perk in my eyes
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  10. #100
    Registered User imbeingcereal's Avatar
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    What's the thesis on RTX? I like defensive plays because I think (putting on my Venom08 conspiracy hat here) part of this is a ramp up to a Cold War with China that will require more defense spending. How does RTX benefit moreso than LMT, NOC, etc.?
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  11. #101
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    What do yall think about Lemonade (LMND). It just dropped and is an insurance company. From what I've read. App based. Supposed to be fast and super user friendly. Primarily uses AI for claims. Charges a flat rate so no haggle for claims so insurance agents get a bonus at end of year, etc.


    I see it as being risky as its so new and is bringing a new concept to the industry. With that said I can see it going big in the long term as well. Seems like they are trying to be innovative in a relatively stagnant industry.
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  12. #102
    Registered User aberry33's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by imbeingcereal View Post
    What's the thesis on RTX? I like defensive plays because I think (putting on my Venom08 conspiracy hat here) part of this is a ramp up to a Cold War with China that will require more defense spending. How does RTX benefit moreso than LMT, NOC, etc.?
    Good question. I used to hold NOC and a very small amount of RTX. That sector interests me too but haven't dived back into it yet.
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  13. #103
    samo neČural bajo moj cromofo's Avatar
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    With RTX, for me, it's the combination of the dividend, government and commercial flight industry recovering down the line.

    I don't want to buy into a purely commercial company right now, so RTX gives me more security on that front.
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  14. #104
    ScubaBro ReadyToLift2019's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SouthDakotaBrah View Post
    For ETFs, most of my money is in QQQ and VOO (NASDAQ and S&P) which should see ~10% annual YoY return. My ratio is similar to yours
    I have MF’S that if coupled with my S&P 500 ETF (VOO) would probably be closer to 80-85% of my portfolio with the remaining 10%-15% being very low DCA Apple. VOO is about 40% of my total portfolio; thoughts?

    So basically:

    45% VOO
    45% MF‘s
    10% Apple

    I think I should start another “aggressive” position but what?? I always find myself putting more into VOO to make the compounding that much better (at least in my mind anyways). TIA
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  15. #105
    SUPERNOVA SouthDakotaBrah's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ReadyToLift2019 View Post
    I have MF’S that if coupled with my S&P 500 ETF (VOO) would probably be closer to 80-85% of my portfolio with the remaining 10%-15% being very low DCA Apple. VOO is about 40% of my total portfolio; thoughts?

    So basically:

    45% VOO
    45% MF‘s
    10% Apple

    I think I should start another “aggressive” position but what?? I always find myself putting more into VOO to make the compounding that much better (at least in my mind anyways). TIA
    I consider QQQ a similar, but more "aggressive" position than VOO. More tech companies with a composite P/E closer to ~40 (QQQ) than ~20 (VOO). And you can buy individual stocks which can be considered aggressive (owning apple and amazon has made a lot of money this year)
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  16. #106
    Registered User PattBattmann's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SouthDakotaBrah View Post
    I consider QQQ a similar, but more "aggressive" position than VOO. More tech companies with a composite P/E closer to ~40 (QQQ) than ~20 (VOO). And you can buy individual stocks which can be considered aggressive (owning apple and amazon has made a lot of money this year)
    I have looked at the composition of VOO, and I don't like the idea of diversifying for the sake of diversifying. It seems that there are several losing stocks in its holdings. I have just started investing, but my largest holding is QQQ with ARK etfs and several other stocks (mostly Amazon and Tesla, which have been insanely awesome). What are your thoughts on taking a more aggressive long-term approach with QQQ being the core holding instead of having the typical S&P 500 core holding?
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  17. #107
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    Originally Posted by PattBattmann View Post
    I have looked at the composition of VOO, and I don't like the idea of diversifying for the sake of diversifying. It seems that there are several losing stocks in its holdings. I have just started investing, but my largest holding is QQQ with ARK etfs and several other stocks (mostly Amazon and Tesla, which have been insanely awesome). What are your thoughts on taking a more aggressive long-term approach with QQQ being the core holding instead of having the typical S&P 500 core holding?
    I hold about 30% VTSAX and 30% VGT/QQQ. But after backtesting QQQ/VGT vs. the total stock market, I think QQQ/VGT are worth the risk.

    I backtested during the absolute worst years for tech stocks - starting in 2000 with the dotcom crash, all the way through 2009 (one year after the '08 stock market crash).

    QQQ was -36.11%, -33.34%, and -37.37% from 00-02. And it was -41.73% in 08.

    Yet, it still came out ahead of a total stock market index fund from 2000-2009 (Starting amount was $10,000 with a $500 monthly contribution.)

    So even in the absolute worst years of the market for tech stocks, QQQ was able to easily recover and beat a total stock market index. Then came the bull market from 2010 till now where QQQ/VGT has DESTROYED total stock market indexes.

    Someone talk me down from the ledge from selling all my VTSAX stock and adding more to my QQQ/VGT/individual equities.
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  18. #108
    Registered User oaktownabroad's Avatar
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    Of course putting it all into a sector etf rather than VTSAX is more risky but with risk comes the opportunity for more reward. It really depends on what your goals are. If you want short term growth then go ahead and try QQQ but if I was buying and holding for a retirement 30 years from now I'd go for VTSAX.
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  19. #109
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    Originally Posted by oaktownabroad View Post
    Of course putting it all into a sector etf rather than VTSAX is more risky but with risk comes the opportunity for more reward. It really depends on what your goals are. If you want short term growth then go ahead and try QQQ but if I was buying and holding for a retirement 30 years from now I'd go for VTSAX.
    Yeah my time horizon is 30+ years.

    And hey, not sure if you missed my reply a few pages back. But I noticed you were bullish on Asian stocks and posted this:
    "I started a position with BABA this morning. Clean balance sheets, tons of $$$, great leadership, and forward thinking.

    Any reason why you believe TCEHY is the next Amazon and not BABA? I've seen BABA talked about as the Chinese equivalent of AMZN, not TCEHY."


    Also, any insight on Sea Limited (SE)? I've done some due diligence myself and really like what I've heard in terms of growth, diverse revenue streams, and the southeast market they're tapping into.
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  20. #110
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    gettinhg tempted to take some profits on Tesla

    Have 13 shares at and average price of $360, currently trading at $1,650
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  21. #111
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    Originally Posted by SouthDakotaBrah View Post
    Based on what metrics

    This company is going to rule the world in 10 years, just curious what your valuation approach is
    This. My second top spending after food during corona is on amazon. Every house in my neighborhood seems to get amazon package every week.

    It’s crazy covid times...and amazon is ruling

    I sold Almost everything when nasdaq bit 7300 and regret it everyday. Sitting on 95% cash and some XRX and hating every second of it. lol

    Overall I’m ok cuz I sold at higher than what I paid for it but missed the fuking ride
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  22. #112
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    I like (and own) both Tencent and Alibaba. Tencent has the consistent revenue stream from their gaming biz that I really like. They both are deep into mobile payments and will continue to get deeper into the Chinese banking and credit business. Basically both are stocks that still have huge growth potential. I still think Tencent is more of an unknown globally than BABA so I think there is more room for a big run up as people discover it.

    I prefer investing in Chinese companies rather than SE Asian ones. The market there is too fragmented with each country trying to boost their own companies. Even though the population is huge, I don’t see giants like Tencent and Ali emerging from the region.
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  24. #114
    SUPERNOVA SouthDakotaBrah's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by oaktownabroad View Post
    Of course putting it all into a sector etf rather than VTSAX is more risky but with risk comes the opportunity for more reward. It really depends on what your goals are. If you want short term growth then go ahead and try QQQ but if I was buying and holding for a retirement 30 years from now I'd go for VTSAX.

    QQQ isn't a sector ETF - QQQ tracks the NASDAQ 100 the same way VOO tracks the S&P 500. VOO tracks the 500 largest US companies by market cap - QQQ tracks tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ (similar to the S&P 500, but skewed more towards technology companies). My high level philosophy behind investing in the NASDAQ vs S&P 500 is that technology drives our digital economy and is where most of the growth will be found in the next decade.

    QQQ top holdings (to show that this isn't just a tech-based ETF but a broad index):
    # Company Symbol Weight Price Chg % Chg
    1 Apple Inc AAPL 12.154 396.15 2.72 (0.69%)
    2 Microsoft Corp MSFT 11.197 213.70 2.10 (0.99%)
    3 Amazon.com Inc AMZN 10.752 3,254.78 57.94 (1.81%)
    4 Facebook Inc FB 4.235 246.80 1.38 (0.56%)
    5 Alphabet Inc GOOGL 3.8 1,576.33 12.49 (0.80%)
    6 Alphabet Inc GOOG 3.708 1,580.00 14.28 (0.91%)
    7 Tesla Inc TSLA 2.583 1,679.00 36.00 (2.19%)
    8 Intel Corp INTC 2.358 61.55 0.40 (0.65%)
    9 NVIDIA Corp NVDA 2.33 424.28 3.85 (0.92%)
    10 Netflix Inc NFLX 2.013 505.00 2.59 (0.52%)
    11 Adobe Inc ADBE 1.934 460.14 4.87 (1.07%)
    12 PayPal Holdings Inc PYPL 1.896 180.02 1.20 (0.67%)
    13 Cisco Systems Inc CSCO 1.832 47.22 0.25 (0.53%)
    14 Comcast Corp CMCSA 1.784 42.00 0.05 (0.12%)
    15 PepsiCo Inc PEP 1.735 133.99 0.88 (0.66%)
    16 Amgen Inc AMGN 1.411 260.95 0.00 (0.00%)
    17 Costco Wholesale Corp COST 1.331 326.51 0.00 (0.00%)
    18 T-Mobile US Inc TMUS 1.207 106.75 0.61 (0.57%)
    19 Broadcom Inc AVGO 1.161 319.65 2.52 (0.79%)
    20 Texas Instruments Inc TXN 1.141 138.00 1.42 (1.04%)
    21 Charter Communications Inc CHTR 1.082 565.51 0.00 (0.00%)
    22 QUALCOMM Inc QCOM 0.963 93.81 0.64 (0.69%)
    23 Gilead Sciences Inc GILD 0.903 77.80 -0.28 (-0.36%)
    24 Starbucks Corp SBUX 0.804 75.48 0.52 (0.69%)
    25 Mondelez International Inc MDLZ 0.717 53.47 0.05 (0.09%)
    26 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX 0.709 305.60 2.50 (0.82%)
    27 Intuitive Surgical Inc ISRG 0.705 673.59 6.05 (0.91%)
    28 Intuit Inc INTU 0.7 300.95 2.23 (0.75%)
    29 Booking Holdings Inc BKNG 0.658 1,727.57 13.92 (0.81%)
    30 Fiserv Inc FISV 0.638 102.44 0.37 (0.36%)
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  25. #115
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    Originally Posted by SouthDakotaBrah View Post
    QQQ isn't a sector ETF - QQQ tracks the NASDAQ 100 the same way VOO tracks the S&P 500. VOO tracks the 500 largest US companies by market cap - QQQ tracks tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ (similar to the S&P 500, but skewed more towards technology companies). My high level philosophy behind investing in the NASDAQ vs S&P 500 is that technology drives our digital economy and is where most of the growth will be found in the next decade.

    QQQ top holdings (to show that this isn't just a tech-based ETF but a broad index):
    # Company Symbol Weight Price Chg % Chg
    1 Apple Inc AAPL 12.154 396.15 2.72 (0.69%)
    2 Microsoft Corp MSFT 11.197 213.70 2.10 (0.99%)
    3 Amazon.com Inc AMZN 10.752 3,254.78 57.94 (1.81%)
    4 Facebook Inc FB 4.235 246.80 1.38 (0.56%)
    5 Alphabet Inc GOOGL 3.8 1,576.33 12.49 (0.80%)
    6 Alphabet Inc GOOG 3.708 1,580.00 14.28 (0.91%)
    7 Tesla Inc TSLA 2.583 1,679.00 36.00 (2.19%)
    8 Intel Corp INTC 2.358 61.55 0.40 (0.65%)
    9 NVIDIA Corp NVDA 2.33 424.28 3.85 (0.92%)
    10 Netflix Inc NFLX 2.013 505.00 2.59 (0.52%)
    11 Adobe Inc ADBE 1.934 460.14 4.87 (1.07%)
    12 PayPal Holdings Inc PYPL 1.896 180.02 1.20 (0.67%)
    13 Cisco Systems Inc CSCO 1.832 47.22 0.25 (0.53%)
    14 Comcast Corp CMCSA 1.784 42.00 0.05 (0.12%)
    15 PepsiCo Inc PEP 1.735 133.99 0.88 (0.66%)
    16 Amgen Inc AMGN 1.411 260.95 0.00 (0.00%)
    17 Costco Wholesale Corp COST 1.331 326.51 0.00 (0.00%)
    18 T-Mobile US Inc TMUS 1.207 106.75 0.61 (0.57%)
    19 Broadcom Inc AVGO 1.161 319.65 2.52 (0.79%)
    20 Texas Instruments Inc TXN 1.141 138.00 1.42 (1.04%)
    21 Charter Communications Inc CHTR 1.082 565.51 0.00 (0.00%)
    22 QUALCOMM Inc QCOM 0.963 93.81 0.64 (0.69%)
    23 Gilead Sciences Inc GILD 0.903 77.80 -0.28 (-0.36%)
    24 Starbucks Corp SBUX 0.804 75.48 0.52 (0.69%)
    25 Mondelez International Inc MDLZ 0.717 53.47 0.05 (0.09%)
    26 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX 0.709 305.60 2.50 (0.82%)
    27 Intuitive Surgical Inc ISRG 0.705 673.59 6.05 (0.91%)
    28 Intuit Inc INTU 0.7 300.95 2.23 (0.75%)
    29 Booking Holdings Inc BKNG 0.658 1,727.57 13.92 (0.81%)
    30 Fiserv Inc FISV 0.638 102.44 0.37 (0.36%)
    Thanks. As a relatively young (32) and aggressive investor, I think that I will continue with using QQQ as my main holding instead of the traditional S&P 500 index. The S&P isn't as diversified as most think since most of the holdings % is going to the big boys at the top anyway.
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  26. #116
    ScubaBro ReadyToLift2019's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SouthDakotaBrah View Post
    I consider QQQ a similar, but more "aggressive" position than VOO. More tech companies with a composite P/E closer to ~40 (QQQ) than ~20 (VOO). And you can buy individual stocks which can be considered aggressive (owning apple and amazon has made a lot of money this year)
    Thanks. I feel like I have that covered within my MF’s, see what you think:

    10% AAPL
    45% VOO

    Then the remaining 45% is:

    FBGRX (up over 50%)
    SPYG
    FXAIX
    FSRPX (retail)
    * Lift & Misc *
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  27. #117
    Registered User headturner1's Avatar
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    See a lot of talk about qqq above..

    I had been buying spy as my main etf, but have since decided to ramp up buying qqq.

    I’m willing to take on the additional risk with my long time horizon.
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  28. #118
    Registered User imbeingcereal's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SouthDakotaBrah View Post
    QQQ isn't a sector ETF - QQQ tracks the NASDAQ 100 the same way VOO tracks the S&P 500. VOO tracks the 500 largest US companies by market cap - QQQ tracks tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ (similar to the S&P 500, but skewed more towards technology companies). My high level philosophy behind investing in the NASDAQ vs S&P 500 is that technology drives our digital economy and is where most of the growth will be found in the next decade.

    QQQ top holdings (to show that this isn't just a tech-based ETF but a broad index):
    # Company Symbol Weight Price Chg % Chg
    1 Apple Inc AAPL 12.154 396.15 2.72 (0.69%)
    2 Microsoft Corp MSFT 11.197 213.70 2.10 (0.99%)
    3 Amazon.com Inc AMZN 10.752 3,254.78 57.94 (1.81%)
    4 Facebook Inc FB 4.235 246.80 1.38 (0.56%)
    5 Alphabet Inc GOOGL 3.8 1,576.33 12.49 (0.80%)
    6 Alphabet Inc GOOG 3.708 1,580.00 14.28 (0.91%)
    7 Tesla Inc TSLA 2.583 1,679.00 36.00 (2.19%)
    8 Intel Corp INTC 2.358 61.55 0.40 (0.65%)
    9 NVIDIA Corp NVDA 2.33 424.28 3.85 (0.92%)
    10 Netflix Inc NFLX 2.013 505.00 2.59 (0.52%)
    11 Adobe Inc ADBE 1.934 460.14 4.87 (1.07%)
    12 PayPal Holdings Inc PYPL 1.896 180.02 1.20 (0.67%)
    13 Cisco Systems Inc CSCO 1.832 47.22 0.25 (0.53%)
    14 Comcast Corp CMCSA 1.784 42.00 0.05 (0.12%)
    15 PepsiCo Inc PEP 1.735 133.99 0.88 (0.66%)
    16 Amgen Inc AMGN 1.411 260.95 0.00 (0.00%)
    17 Costco Wholesale Corp COST 1.331 326.51 0.00 (0.00%)
    18 T-Mobile US Inc TMUS 1.207 106.75 0.61 (0.57%)
    19 Broadcom Inc AVGO 1.161 319.65 2.52 (0.79%)
    20 Texas Instruments Inc TXN 1.141 138.00 1.42 (1.04%)
    21 Charter Communications Inc CHTR 1.082 565.51 0.00 (0.00%)
    22 QUALCOMM Inc QCOM 0.963 93.81 0.64 (0.69%)
    23 Gilead Sciences Inc GILD 0.903 77.80 -0.28 (-0.36%)
    24 Starbucks Corp SBUX 0.804 75.48 0.52 (0.69%)
    25 Mondelez International Inc MDLZ 0.717 53.47 0.05 (0.09%)
    26 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX 0.709 305.60 2.50 (0.82%)
    27 Intuitive Surgical Inc ISRG 0.705 673.59 6.05 (0.91%)
    28 Intuit Inc INTU 0.7 300.95 2.23 (0.75%)
    29 Booking Holdings Inc BKNG 0.658 1,727.57 13.92 (0.81%)
    30 Fiserv Inc FISV 0.638 102.44 0.37 (0.36%)
    Thing is everyone believes tech is going to drive the economy and is piling into it, which is why valuations are getting stretched so much. I was wrong last decade, but I think value will outperform growth this decade. I think people are waking up to the idea that some of these tech companies' "business models" are nothing but marketing (see Uber, Lyft performance post-IPO and the recent crash in Netflix despite having a great quarter by most measures). Valuation eventually does matter because growth can't continue forever and I think people will start to bid up industrials or other laggards going forward. We're already starting to see a rotation away from tech in the markets with the underperformance of the NASDAQ lately.

    I'm actually going a whole other road and think Emerging Markets will be the place to start putting money to work soon. My VWO shares have been doing great recently.
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  29. #119
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by imbeingcereal View Post
    Thing is everyone believes tech is going to drive the economy and is piling into it, which is why valuations are getting stretched so much. I was wrong last decade, but I think value will outperform growth this decade. I think people are waking up to the idea that some of these tech companies' "business models" are nothing but marketing (see Uber, Lyft performance post-IPO and the recent crash in Netflix despite having a great quarter by most measures). Valuation eventually does matter because growth can't continue forever and I think people will start to bid up industrials or other laggards going forward. We're already starting to see a rotation away from tech in the markets with the underperformance of the NASDAQ lately.

    I'm actually going a whole other road and think Emerging Markets will be the place to start putting money to work soon. My VWO shares have been doing great recently.

    Eh, they missed their EPS which with tech it’s an all or nothing sort of thing it seems. Just like last quarter, they dipped and then rallied like a monster. And I don’t think I would call a 7% drop a “crash” especially after earnings. It’s still above what it was just last month. Companies like NFLX at worst will be flat for a period, but with how much they are growing, their stock will eventually go up. Again, just like last quarter.
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  30. #120
    SUPERNOVA SouthDakotaBrah's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by imbeingcereal View Post
    Thing is everyone believes tech is going to drive the economy and is piling into it, which is why valuations are getting stretched so much. I was wrong last decade, but I think value will outperform growth this decade. I think people are waking up to the idea that some of these tech companies' "business models" are nothing but marketing (see Uber, Lyft performance post-IPO and the recent crash in Netflix despite having a great quarter by most measures). Valuation eventually does matter because growth can't continue forever and I think people will start to bid up industrials or other laggards going forward. We're already starting to see a rotation away from tech in the markets with the underperformance of the NASDAQ lately.

    I'm actually going a whole other road and think Emerging Markets will be the place to start putting money to work soon. My VWO shares have been doing great recently.
    The S&P 500 has the same overvalued tech companies that the NASDAQ has

    Valuations matter, but traditional value metrics like P/E don't neatly apply to tech companies with high growth. Ideally I'd like to buy tech companies with low price/40-year earnings growth... a lot of tech companies that look overvalued based on traditional value metrics would look great if you could project those same metrics 10-20+ years out. I think technology will drive most of the future growth in our economy because thats where the largest opportunities exist for value to be added; looking at earnings one year out doesn't tell the full picture for companies invested in areas that will see double digit growth over the next decade.
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