Pandemic WTF - USA vs EU

[Austanian]

There was nothing further to define. Currently not showing symptoms = asymtomatic + pre-symptomatic.

I strongly push back on the claim that the mortality rate is “slightly higher than the normal flu..” If you mean mortality per infection, it’s at the bare minimum 3x greater. That is not slight lol. Though I’d argue it’s closer to 5-6x. But you need to factor in the effective contact rate if you’re comparing the two in terms of how much overall death they will cause currently in a given population. When that’s included, it’s killing at 10-20x the rate of influenza.

All that said, I don’t know what the best strategy is moving forward. I honestly don’t. Weighing the economy vs death vs vaccine timing is difficult to put it mildly.

I mean mortality rate of those exposed and fight it off both symptomatic and asymptomatic as they both apply towards reducing the R0 number. This virus is extremely weird in the sense that a large percentage of people don't get sick at all or minorly get sick. Tracking that population is going to be hard. Comparing that to viruses that are much more likely to sicken people will result in significant statistical bias.

The other issue is defining "overall death" if a 90 year old dies 3 months early does it count the same as an infant dying from the flu?

The big issue is... THIS IS AMERICA... you are limited to what the people will allow you to. You wanted me to stay locked up for 2 weeks. Okay. 2 more weeks ehhh. Now you are getting a fuk off. Counting "options" you can't implement as potential options isn't a great move.

[|ceman]

protesting racism is more important than any virus op

explain why we never got below 20k new cases per day since the start. protests weren't going on in april and may. you need a new excuse.

*I am still of the opinion that the best course of action is to rip the bandaid off and let it happen. The mortality rate is just slightly higher than the normal flu and dealing with sickness is just the cost of living.

dramatically higher mortality than the normal flu - like 300% to 2,000% higher.

plus the normal flu is not as transmissible as covid19 - which is about 2x as contagious.

the only thing in common is some of the symptoms.

MSM:

-COVID scary!

-We love protests!

-

Spoiler!

-WTF why more COVID?! Idiot republicans!

explain why we never got below 20k new cases per day since the start. protests weren't going on in april and may. you need a new excuse.

What’s interesting is that OP and other democrats understand that EU tests less people and USA liberal areas overreport Corona deaths and cases to get federal funding (Car accident deaths counted as corona) and to make Trump look bad, but OP and democrats play dumb, somehow hoping to convince themselves and others that somehow Trump is doing something, anything, something different from EU, and so he is responsible for more deaths and more cases.

everything you posted is a lie. I'm not a democrat and have never voted for a democrat. The EU is not testing less people. The USA is not overreport covid deaths (if anything they're underreporting due to huge increases in all cause mortality), trump is doing nothing - he won't even wear a mask FFS.

like I said - everything you post is just lies.

3x higher than an average flu or 3x higher than a bad flu season though? Still, 50k or 150k deaths in a year isn't such a huge difference that it warrants these kinds of draconic measures.

keep in mind - it's currently 120k+ deaths WITH draconian measures. without those measures it would easily be far far worse.

[|ceman]

The big issue is... THIS IS AMERICA... you are limited to what the people will allow you to. You wanted me to stay locked up for 2 weeks. Okay. 2 more weeks ehhh. Now you are getting a fuk off. Counting "options" you can't implement as potential options isn't a great move.

I agree that lockdowns aren't going to work.

but is wearing a mask such a huge blow to individual liberty?

why even have decency laws that prohibit public nudity if individual liberties matter more?

[Reliance012]

Correct me if I'm wrong here, these are models and not ACTUAL data, right? And did they not BOTH use the same info from China that the CDC used, who stated that individuals that were infected and undetected confounded their analysis of asymptomatic spread?


It's a pretty big leap to say that '10% of transmission comes from asymptomatic carriers' based on models that by their own admission are filled with assumptions, and are using information that our own health organization has investigated, finding 0 confirmed asymptomatic transmissions.

I mean, this is the abstract of the 'source' used by those models to justify the presence of asymptomatic transmission




Not only is it an anecdote, but it's transmission between family members. Even without symptoms all you have to do is share a glass with someone to transmit.




btw if this is true, which it appears to be more an estimation than a truth, then I'd wager a large majority of pre/asymptomatic transmissions are between family members. Don't think a mask will be helping all that much in those scenarios.

The 44% estimate in the first paper (which is in agreement with 3-4 other papers cited within it) was based on clinical data of viral shedding in conjunction with epidemiological transmission pairing data. For the latter, the basic idea being if we know the average incubation time and the interval between symptoms of transmission pairings then you can infer on average how much transmission is taking place before symptoms.

For the 10% asymptomatic, there are quite a few papers I’ve seen with similar estimates usually ranging from 5-15%. Most of them are based on retrospective contract tracing data.

[Barteh]

keep in mind - it's currently 120k+ deaths WITH draconian measures. without those measures it would easily be far far worse.

That's if we assume those draconic measures are doing a lot to stop the spread. Isn't the infection rate pretty high anyway, which shows that those measures aren't that effective? It's not stopping the spread and we might end up with herd immunity anyway.

I find it hard to believe the death rate would suddenly be tripled if nothing was done at all. In the end most of the deaths are people in the risk groups. And in the USA there's way more obese people compared to other countries so there's more people in the risk groups. For non-obese people below 50 years of age I don't think the death rate is significant at all. Why not protect those people in the risk groups and let other people go on with their lives fairly normally?

Sure, you can prohibit huge stadium events and festivals with 50k+ people in attendance. Most people would understand that. But completely shutting down all business and trying to lockdown young healthy people at home for months? I honestly don't think those draconic measures for the entire population are that effective.

I agree that lockdowns aren't going to work.

but is wearing a mask such a huge blow to individual liberty?

why even have decency laws that prohibit public nudity if individual liberties matter more?

In the Netherlands they literally said: there's no scientific evidence facemasks are effective but we're obligating you to wear one in public transport anyway.

Then they actually went on to say they would fine people for wearing a medical grade mask because the healthcare workers need it (they rolled that back fairly quickly though). How does that make sense though? If something is not proven to be effective but it purely serves to give a feeling of safety, it's pretty invasive to force that on people.

[|ceman]

That's if we assume those draconic measures are doing a lot to stop the spread. Isn't the infection rate pretty high anyway, which shows that those measures aren't that effective? It's not stopping the spread and we might end up with herd immunity anyway.

I find it hard to believe the death rate would suddenly be tripled if nothing was done at all. In the end most of the deaths are people in the risk groups. And in the USA there's way more obese people compared to other countries so there's more people in the risk groups. For non-obese people below 50 years of age I don't think the death rate is significant at all. Why not protect those people in the risk groups and let other people go on with their lives fairly normally?

Sure, you can prohibit huge stadium events and festivals with 50k+ people in attendance. Most people would understand that. But completely shutting down all business and trying to lockdown young healthy people at home for months? I honestly don't think those draconic measures for the entire population are that effective.



In the Netherlands they literally said: there's no scientific evidence facemasks are effective but we're obligating you to wear one in public transport anyway.

Then they actually went on to say they would fine people for wearing a medical grade mask because the healthcare workers need it (they rolled that back fairly quickly though). How does that make sense though? If something is not proven to be effective but it purely serves to give a feeling of safety, it's pretty invasive to force that on people.

there's actually scientific evidence supporting the use of facemasks. to say there is no scientific evidence is misleading since this virus is so new and very little is conclusively known about it. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7191274/



the infection rate is a function of how contagious it is multiplied by how many people an contagious person comes into contact with. that's where shutdowns of businesses and events where people come into contact with a lot of other people can reduce the reproductive rate.

[Reliance012]

Why the difference though in number of cases?

It's not like in Europe everybody has facemasks and is practicing anti-social distancing like it's a religion. People there are getting tired of the draconic measures as well.



3x higher than an average flu or 3x higher than a bad flu season though? Still, 50k or 150k deaths in a year isn't such a huge difference that it warrants these kinds of draconic measures. Keep the oldies and people in risk groups quarantined and go on with normal life. I'm pretty sure most people are aware that the kung flu is worse than a regular flu, and possibly a bit worse than a regular flu season. But it's not -that- bad that the entire economy should be wrecked and lives of the entiry population should be fukked.

3x the mortality per infection, not 3x more deaths over the same unit time. Those are drastically different things.

Think of this way: during April when coronavirus was near its peak (yet not close to what it could’ve been) the number of weekly deaths was >10x what you see in peak influenza season.

That same principle can be applied to today. We’re sitting at a 600 dead/day weekly moving average. During this time of year in past seasons, influenza deaths are very low. I think when I looked at the data the entire month of June was 1,500-2,000 deaths.

I’m not saying anything about the economy one way or another. Like I said I don’t know how to proceed. I’m simply pointing out the difference in death tallies between this virus and influenza.

[ghostfacedup]

Time to open, you guys protested. We bought in for a few months, it's over now. Get back to work.

[Jacobcapra]

For the 10% asymptomatic, there are quite a few papers I’ve seen with similar estimates usually ranging from 5-15%. Most of them are based on retrospective contract tracing data.

Again I'll just say that asymptomatic transmission is likely between family members, a situation which would hardly be helped by masks. Unless you wear a mask at home all the time, don't share with your family or touch your kids or kiss your wife, I don't see how asymptomatic transmission could be reduced by much.

[Reliance012]

Again I'll just say that asymptomatic transmission is likely between family members, a situation which would hardly be helped by masks. Unless you wear a mask at home all the time, don't share with your family or touch your kids or kiss your wife, I don't see how asymptomatic transmission could be reduced by much.

Over 40% is coming before symptoms. Viral shedding peaks before symptoms or possibly just after. Unless you’re a psychic who can predict if you’re about to show symptoms, wearing a mask would reduce effective contact rate during this time.

[|ceman]

3x the mortality per infection, not 3x more deaths over the same unit time. Those are drastically different things.

Think of this way: during April when coronavirus was near its peak (yet not close to what it could’ve been) the number of weekly deaths was >10x what you see in peak influenza season.

That same principle can be applied to today. We’re sitting at a 600 dead/day weekly moving average. During this time of year in past seasons, influenza deaths are very low. I think when I looked at the data the entire month of June was 1,500-2,000 deaths.

I’m not saying anything about the economy one way or another. Like I said I don’t know how to proceed. I’m simply pointing out the difference in death tallies between this virus and influenza.

all good points.


one thing for people who compare this to the flu - all my life I've never known anyone who died from the flu. In just a couple months of covid I already know a few people who died from covid. It's definitely more deadly than the flu.

[Dave22reborn]

Again I'll just say that asymptomatic transmission is likely between family members, a situation which would hardly be helped by masks. Unless you wear a mask at home all the time, don't share with your family or touch your kids or kiss your wife, I don't see how asymptomatic transmission could be reduced by much.

Had a co-worker always masked up at work, talking roll call, in the vehicle, outside on jobs, etc. She got it from her BF.

Unless you're some weird loner, that never goes out, this virus isn't going anywhere.

[5x10]

Possible evidence of the protest spread

US hospitals saw a steady decline in COV+ patients from 4/15 to 6/15. in the last 10 days, they have seen a change in this trend

many have sought to blame this on "re-opening"

but his this a credible claim?

perhaps not

infection to hospital is 11-14 days.

so let's look back

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/stat...132534277?s=21

[tecom]

Give up, shills.

[katya422]

They are either being intellectually dishonest, or low iq. Either way, they hate America. No one is buying any of their crap anymore, they blew it with the protests.

Who is "they" in this scenario? I sincerely don't get why the protests mean that coronavirus is a lie and no one should have to wear a mask.

1. These people were mostly outside which seems to greatly reduce transmission.

2. How would coming down hard on protesters have played out? Don't you think that it maybe could have gotten more people riled up > more people out protesting > increased opportunity for viral transmission?

3. Sorry, but people who are saying "the government didn't make protesters wear a mask so I shouldn't have to wear one either" sound like bratty children to me. I know that the lefty snowflakes are oh so delicate. This "but other people were inconsiderate and they got away with it, so I should be able to do it to" is a bad look.

Yeah I’ve read that study. Agree with the prevalence conclusions but not the mortality per infection conclusion. They missed the ball. The exact same logic they applied to unexplained ILI should have been extended to unexplained pneumonia deaths. In the last 6 months pneumonia deaths (not attributed to covid) are double what they’ve been historically. All the authors needed to do was use the same principle for explaining prevalence and apply it to deaths.

Good point.

Also, just to be devil's advocate, do you have any evidence that wearing a mask reduces transmittance of COVID-19 specifically? I've found plenty of evidence for rhinovirus and influenza, but those are small enough to aerosolize, while COVID is not. The only study I've found about using masks with COVID found no improvement, although it was a very crude study that I would hardly trust.

Too tired to dig through my old posts for the link. In a comment sometime in the past week or so. Three studies (one was Lancet) that found masks make a difference.

It wasn't a huge difference per incident, it is more that across incidents there is a big cumulative difference. IIRC exposed with no mask = 12% transmission rate vs. exposed with a mask 6% transmission rate.

[MirinCanadian99]

When the concept of wearing a mask, socially distancing, or even the existence of the virus becomes a political issue you see what happens. As poorly as many European countries were set up to tackle this from the start, they got buy in from their people. Their people sacrificed for the greater good of the country. That’s patriotism and heroism. We decided to protest for the right to get a haircut and we think patriotism is the ability to sit down and have a sandwich without wearing a mask to “own the libs”.

How has sacrificing for the greater good worked out for the Europeans over the many years fam?

[Judgment]

When the concept of wearing a mask, socially distancing, or even the existence of the virus becomes a political issue you see what happens. As poorly as many European countries were set up to tackle this from the start, they got buy in from their people. Their people sacrificed for the greater good of the country. That’s patriotism and heroism. We decided to protest for the right to get a haircut and we think patriotism is the ability to sit down and have a sandwich without wearing a mask to “own the libs”.

I think Marxist protests and riots under the guise of "black lives matter" is a much bigger, widespread issue than people protesting haircuts.

But I'm sure they're ALL wearing masks and staying 6 ft. Apart when they destroy and loot apple stores and pull people out of trucks to beat them nearly to death.

So why is it whenever any of this is brought up, forum lefts just say "I didnt say I support that", but they never use it as a main reason the numbers are spiking?

[ghostfacedup]

Get back to work jackass. You protested, now you work.

[EctoCanuck]

Someone is screwing with you mane. That's a Stegosaurus...

[BunkerBoy]

why do you think I’m trying to manipulate data? I found the link on twitter and posted it

and here is the core problem with conservatives on this forum and in real life.
You found something that you thought would bolster your argument so you posted it without double checking it.

[SekkendSyklye]

and here is the core problem with conservatives on this forum and in real life.
You found something that you thought would bolster your argument so you posted it without double checking it.

cuz liberalz neeever do that right?

[katya422]

cuz liberalz neeever do that right?

That can happen to anyone. Sometimes the source is biased. Sometimes the proof is insubstantial.

Sometimes there is new information.

If you have been around more than a minute you probably have positions on topics based on what you "know" because of possibly reading a good source in the past. And then you remember that "fact", hit the ol' internet search to find it and...oh. That was wrong. Or that changed.

'Bout the best you can do is try setting your search parameters to "the past year" or some such.

Just do the best you can and be open to change if the evidence supports it. Most of us have some kind of life outside of becoming (and staying) SMEs on every topic.

[Dave22reborn]

People of color won’t be required to wear masks in Lincoln County

https://ktvz.com/news/national-world...oregon-county/

People of color are exempt from an Oregon county’s mask mandate over concerns about racial profiling.

Lincoln County, Oregon, requires most residents to wear face coverings in public settings, indoors or outdoors. The overwhelmingly White county will not require non-White residents to wear them if they fear harassment, the county said this month.

It’s one of the first counties in the US to exempt people of color from wearing masks to prevent racial profiling.

[z4v4]

LOL at calling the ACTUAL official numbers "manipulated". GTFO

This coming from the guy who thinks 90% of the deaths reported were actually car accidents.

[z4v4]

You stated "Nearly half of all transmission is coming from individuals currently displaying no symptoms" and didn't further define. Fair enough sources though.



*I am still of the opinion that the best course of action is to rip the bandaid off and let it happen. The mortality rate is just slightly higher than the normal flu and dealing with sickness is just the cost of living.

By slightly higher mortality rate than the flu, you mean like 3 or 4 times higher?

[AriGhold]

The fact that people continue to argue that both the virus isn’t as dangerous as we thought because only 120k people have died AND that the stay at home orders were ineffective tells you all you need to know about the intelligence of the general public.

[z4v4]

The fact that people continue to argue that both the virus isn’t as dangerous as we thought because only 120k people have died AND that the stay at home orders were ineffective tells you all you need to know about the intelligence of the general public.

It's a couple hundo short of 128K, and yesterday was 4 months to the day of the first death. Going to be a long fall/winter unless a vaccine shows up much earlier than expected.

[Dave22reborn]

The fact that people continue to argue that both the virus isn’t as dangerous as we thought because only 120k people have died AND that the stay at home orders were ineffective tells you all you need to know about the intelligence of the general public.

Yep......

Oregon county imposes face mask requirement targeting only white people, minorities exempt over racism fears

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.was...rs%3f_amp=true

Then they changed it.....and blamed the change on racism.....

An Oregon county drops its mask exemption for people of color after racist response

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...rnd/index.html

[AriGhold]

Yep......

Oregon county imposes face mask requirement targeting only white people, minorities exempt over racism fears

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.was...rs%3f_amp=true

Then they changed it.....and blamed the change on racism.....

An Oregon county drops its mask exemption for people of color after racist response

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...rnd/index.html

Has absolutely nothing to do with what I posted but does also speak to the stupidity pandemic also spreading across the country.

[Dave22reborn]

Has absolutely nothing to do with what I posted but does also speak to the stupidity pandemic also spreading across the country.

Why are progressives trying to make "people of color" exempt from the mask?

Why don't Arabs have to wear a mask at Starbucks?

Is this the progressive/PC world we live in nowadays?