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  1. #1
    In Witness Protection mtpockets's Avatar
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    COVID surging in some states

    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced today that he will pause any further phases to reopen the state as Texas responds to the increase in Covid-19 cases.

    All businesses that were permitted to reopen under the previous phases can continue to operate at the level designated by the phase while still adhering to the minimum standard health protocols as stated by the Texas Department of State Health Services, according to a press release issued by the governor's office.


    California, Texas, Arizona and Florida are among these states. Any residents want to chime in on why this is happening? Open too early? Not adhering to rules? Second wave?
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    Registered User bustasinclair's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post
    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced today that he will pause any further phases to reopen the state as Texas responds to the increase in Covid-19 cases.

    All businesses that were permitted to reopen under the previous phases can continue to operate at the level designated by the phase while still adhering to the minimum standard health protocols as stated by the Texas Department of State Health Services, according to a press release issued by the governor's office.


    California, Texas, Arizona and Florida are among these states. Any residents want to chime in on why this is happening? Open too early? Not adhering to rules? Second wave?
    Wasn't my fault.

    I would imagine we could speculate all day and come up with hundreds of scenarios. Probably Obama's fault.
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  3. #3
    In Witness Protection mtpockets's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by bustasinclair View Post
    Wasn't my fault.

    I would imagine we could speculate all day and come up with hundreds of scenarios. Probably Obama's fault.
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  4. #4
    In Witness Protection mtpockets's Avatar
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    CDC Says COVID-19 Cases in US May Be 10 Times Higher Than Reported

    "This virus causes so much asymptomatic infection," CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield said. "The traditional approach of looking for symptomatic illness and diagnosing it obviously underestimates the total amount of infections."


    The true number of Americans who've been infected with COVID-19 may top 20 million, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    "Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield said on a call with reporters Thursday,

    The estimate comes from looking at blood samples across the country for the presence of antibodies to the virus. For every confirmed case of COVID-19, 10 more people had antibodies, Redfield said, citing "so much asymptomatic infection."

    Currently, there are 2.3 million COVID-19 cases reported in the U.S. The CDC's new estimate pushes the actual number of coronavirus cases up to at least 23 million.
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    Registered User Plateauplower's Avatar
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    We can expect to see an increase in case loads everywhere as restrictions are lifted and testing capacity has increased. The important numbers at this point are hospital capacities and deaths, which will likely be preceded by increases in the percentage of positive tests. Lots of cases isn't a bad thing, as many are mild/asymptomatic. When hospitals hit max capacity, that's when things can go downhill quickly and cause an increase in deaths (beyond those who would die with or without intensive medical care). The more people that get it and recover are more "dead ends" for the virus moving forward. It will be a balancing act, keeping hospitals' surge capacity available and keeping things open enough to prevent a total economic collapse.

    CDC reporting an estimated 10X the number of cases that have been confirmed....That's not a bad thing, it lowers the mortality rate and again creates more "dead ends" in the transmission cycle.

    Also this:
    https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/20...ter-originally
    Last edited by Plateauplower; 06-25-2020 at 12:18 PM.
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  6. #6
    In Witness Protection mtpockets's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Plateauplower View Post
    We can expect to see an increase in case loads everywhere as restrictions are lifted and testing capacity has increased. The important numbers at this point are hospital capacities and deaths, which will likely be preceded by increases in the percentage of positive tests. Lots of cases isn't a bad thing, as many are mild/asymptomatic. When hospitals hit max capacity, that's when things can go downhill quickly and cause an increase in deaths (beyond those who would die with or without intensive medical care). The more people that get it and recover are more "dead ends" for the virus moving forward. It will be a balancing act, keeping hospitals' surge capacity available and keeping things open enough to prevent a total economic collapse.

    CDC reporting an estimated 10X the number of cases that have been confirmed....That's not a bad thing, it lowers the mortality rate and again creates more "dead ends" in the transmission cycle.

    Also this:
    https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/20...ter-originally

    As usual, informative post Plateauplower.

    Question, with a lot of mild/asymptomatic cases like you mention, wouldn't this be an argument to have more mask wearing policies to slow the spread? It seems like a no brainer to me, but perhaps I am missing something.
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  7. #7
    Registered User quicksand jesus's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post
    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced today that he will pause any further phases to reopen the state as Texas responds to the increase in Covid-19 cases.

    All businesses that were permitted to reopen under the previous phases can continue to operate at the level designated by the phase while still adhering to the minimum standard health protocols as stated by the Texas Department of State Health Services, according to a press release issued by the governor's office.


    California, Texas, Arizona and Florida are among these states. Any residents want to chime in on why this is happening? Open too early? Not adhering to rules? Second wave?
    I thought I heard it was going away. It's over. Some people have been saying this.

    It's not the second wave... it never left.

    Hopefully we start to get smarter... but I'm a pessimist at heart .
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  8. #8
    High Plains Lifter Mark1T's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by quicksand jesus View Post
    I thought I heard it was going away. It's over. Some people have been saying this.

    It's not the second wave... it never left.

    Hopefully we start to get smarter... but I'm a pessimist at heart .
    I agree with you, but I hope that more effective treatments in the coming months and an eventual vaccine next year will finally really reduce it.
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  9. #9
    Registered User lotusdeva's Avatar
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    Houston's Texas Medical Center reached 100% ICU occupancy Thursday, as Texas continues to cope with a surge in coronavirus cases.


    https://www.newsweek.com/texass-larg...box=1593112335
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    High Plains Lifter Mark1T's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by lotusdeva View Post
    Houston's Texas Medical Center reached 100% ICU occupancy Thursday, as Texas continues to cope with a surge in coronavirus cases.

    https://www.newsweek.com/texass-larg...box=1593112335
    Thanks for the report, Ms. Deva. Sorry to hear about your neighbor.

    Nice to see you.
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  11. #11
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    I agree with you, but I hope that more effective treatments in the coming months and an eventual vaccine next year will finally really reduce it.
    Do you like conspiracy theories cause I've got one for ya

    Large call option today for 4.6million put on Spy at 315 for 8/21. The rumor I've heard from multiple "dark" twitter accounts is that a vaccine is set to be announced in August and that ducks are being put in a row for a massive roll out. In case you don't know ( I'm sure you do ) Spy tracks the S&P and betting on this is huge. Usually you see these large option moves on a single company but for the whole index? Anyhow I doubt it but seeing that much cheese slapped on call options for this index means something is up other than a delta neutral hedge.
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    So, is it GOOD news that Biden said today that 120,000,000 (yes 120 million) people have died from COVID? I guess that means there's not many left for COVID to kill, since Biden also previously said guns had killed 150 million Americans...
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  13. #13
    High Plains Lifter Mark1T's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    Do you like conspiracy theories cause I've got one for ya

    Large call option today for 4.6million put on Spy at 315 for 8/21. The rumor I've heard from multiple "dark" twitter accounts is that a vaccine is set to be announced in August and that ducks are being put in a row for a massive roll out. In case you don't know ( I'm sure you do ) Spy tracks the S&P and betting on this is huge. Usually you see these large option moves on a single company but for the whole index? Anyhow I doubt it but seeing that much cheese slapped on call options for this index means something is up other than a delta neutral hedge.
    I have not heard that one, but I am aware of Spy. I hope the rumor about the vaccine is true. If it is, then that call option would be in excellent position for a windfall.

    Are you going to buy?
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post
    As usual, informative post Plateauplower.
    Ah, I mentioned what he mentioned in another thread, called is Covid over or something.

    I even said more cases aren’t bad news and someone else didn’t agree.

    Thank you and you’re welcome.
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    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    I have not heard that one, but I am aware of Spy. I hope the rumor about the vaccine is true. If it is, then that call option would be in excellent position for a windfall.

    Are you going to buy?
    I did buy but not Spy. I sold 10 put contracts of Draftkings for $36 strike today expiring beg of Aug. I'm betting that sports (mainly football) will be played based on good news. If not I'm going to own 1000 shares
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    I did buy but not Spy. I sold 10 put contracts of Draftkings for $36 strike today expiring beg of Aug. I'm betting that sports (mainly football) will be played based on good news. If not I'm going to own 1000 shares
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  17. #17
    Finally accused of juicin Corbi's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Plateauplower View Post
    We can expect to see an increase in case loads everywhere as restrictions are lifted and testing capacity has increased. The important numbers at this point are hospital capacities and deaths, which will likely be preceded by increases in the percentage of positive tests. Lots of cases isn't a bad thing, as many are mild/asymptomatic. When hospitals hit max capacity, that's when things can go downhill quickly and cause an increase in deaths (beyond those who would die with or without intensive medical care). The more people that get it and recover are more "dead ends" for the virus moving forward. It will be a balancing act, keeping hospitals' surge capacity available and keeping things open enough to prevent a total economic collapse.

    CDC reporting an estimated 10X the number of cases that have been confirmed....That's not a bad thing, it lowers the mortality rate and again creates more "dead ends" in the transmission cycle.

    Also this:
    https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/20...ter-originally
    Exactly, why is this so hard for anyone to comprehend? A ton of new cases doesn't mean jack squat unless they lead directly to hospitilzations and or death. So you get tested for Covid and are positive but have zero signs and wouldn't know unless they told you, big friggin deal. And yes I understand that being asymptomatic doesn't mean you couldn't pass it on but then with how little we actually do know maybe you can't or if you do the effects are exactly the same as yours?
    "You know that little thing in your head that keeps you from saying things you shouldn't? Yeah, well, I don't have one of those."
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  18. #18
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post
    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced today that he will pause any further phases to reopen the state as Texas responds to the increase in Covid-19 cases.

    All businesses that were permitted to reopen under the previous phases can continue to operate at the level designated by the phase while still adhering to the minimum standard health protocols as stated by the Texas Department of State Health Services, according to a press release issued by the governor's office.


    California, Texas, Arizona and Florida are among these states. Any residents want to chime in on why this is happening? Open too early? Not adhering to rules? Second wave?
    I’ll chime in. They were exposed far later than some of the other states. The increase in cases was predicted months ago based on this one fact alone.

    Here’s a fact too. Death rate is lower across the board. So, where’s the bigger issue? New cases, or the death rate?

    Oh, and don’t forget that Covid deaths are in nearly all case, a co-morbidity situation, as opposed to being the sole cause of death.

    Not sure why, besides hospitals getting extra money for Covid related deaths, that this fact continues to be left out of the reporting.

    Oh well, we’ll keep prolonging the virus, giving it plenty of time to mutate.
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    Originally Posted by lotusdeva View Post
    Houston's Texas Medical Center reached 100% ICU occupancy Thursday, as Texas continues to cope with a surge in coronavirus cases.




    https://www.newsweek.com/texass-larg...box=1593112335
    That happened fast and as of yesterday cases were still rising. Thanks for the link


    Originally Posted by CommitmentRulz View Post
    So, is it GOOD news that Biden said today that 120,000,000 (yes 120 million) people have died from COVID? I guess that means there's not many left for COVID to kill, since Biden also previously said guns had killed 150 million Americans...
    Lmao, I just seen that..











    Originally Posted by Corbi
    Exactly, why is this so hard for anyone to comprehend? A ton of new cases doesn't mean jack squat unless they lead directly to hospitilzations and or death. So you get tested for Covid and are positive but have zero signs and wouldn't know unless they told you, big friggin deal. And yes I understand that being asymptomatic doesn't mean you couldn't pass it on but then with how little we actually do know maybe you can't or if you do the effects are exactly the same as yours?
    Originally Posted by Brackneyc View Post
    I’ll chime in. They were exposed far later than some of the other states. The increase in cases was predicted months ago based on this one fact alone.

    Here’s a fact too. Death rate is lower across the board. So, where’s the bigger issue? New cases, or the death rate?

    Oh, and don’t forget that Covid deaths are in nearly all case, a co-morbidity situation, as opposed to being the sole cause of death.

    Not sure why, besides hospitals getting extra money for Covid related deaths, that this fact continues to be left out of the reporting.

    Oh well, we’ll keep prolonging the virus, giving it plenty of time to mutate.
    The number of deaths are more important than the number of cases to a point. However, we need to keep in mind that cases occur before the death rate increases, when these cases jam up the ICU's like in the link Lotus provided and plateauplower mentioned. Now it's serious sh!t, it's easy for us to armchair quarterback this from the safety of out recliner, and unfortunately, I think for a lot, it won't really hit home until it hits close to home. We also need to recognize that non covid patients are suffering as well, I am not talking about someone wanting to go for a few beers at the bar, needing a haircut or missing the gym. Some procedures and surgeries have been postponed because of the pandemic, these people are suffering too. Personally I am not afraid of the virus, I don't want it and I have a health issue that may increase my odds of death more than some but what I am more concerned with is getting the virus and passing it along to others, so I do what I can to prevent this. This is a sh!tstorm no matter how you slice and dice it and I would like to see it over as fast and as safely possible.


    So what do you gentlemen recommend, mask and gloves off live life like normal and let rip through and be done with?
    Last edited by mtpockets; 06-26-2020 at 03:31 AM.
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    • 82% of Alabama's ICU beds full as COVID-19 cases soar

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronaviru...l_twitter_abcn
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    My sister is an ER nurse and she says a lot of people with mild symptoms are being admitted to hospital just because of that dere Covid 19 pay. She said Very few are intubated
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post


    So what do you gentlemen recommend, mask and gloves off live life like normal and let rip through and be done with?
    Thats exactly what I have been saying since day 1, all we are doing is delaying the inevitable.
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    Originally Posted by kingHanley View Post
    My sister is an ER nurse and she says a lot of people with mild symptoms are being admitted to hospital just because of that dere Covid 19 pay. She said Very few are intubated
    Bodyhard said something very similar quite a while ago.
    It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.

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    As I'm typing this I'm looking at Covid testing. I've heard the swab needs to go deep but that looks *painful* like they're trying to clean the back of the head. Wow I don't fancy that... better get away before anyone thinks I'm due for testing
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post
    That happened fast and as of yesterday cases were still rising. Thanks for the link




    Lmao, I just seen that..















    The number of deaths are more important than the number of cases to a point. However, we need to keep in mind that cases occur before the death rate increases, when these cases jam up the ICU's like in the link Lotus provided and plateauplower mentioned. Now it's serious sh!t, it's easy for us to armchair quarterback this from the safety of out recliner, and unfortunately, I think for a lot, it won't really hit home until it hits close to home. We also need to recognize that non covid patients are suffering as well, I am not talking about someone wanting to go for a few beers at the bar, needing a haircut or missing the gym. Some procedures and surgeries have been postponed because of the pandemic, these people are suffering too. Personally I am not afraid of the virus, I don't want it and I have a health issue that may increase my odds of death more than some but what I am more concerned with is getting the virus and passing it along to others, so I do what I can to prevent this. This is a sh!tstorm no matter how you slice and dice it and I would like to see it over as fast and as safely possible.


    So what do you gentlemen recommend, mask and gloves off live life like normal and let rip through and be done with?

    I doubt it will ever be gone. That’s the first thing.

    Secondly, those Not masking up are accepting the risk. Those who do, if done correctly, should be fine. That is of course if you accept that masks help. Imo, the mask has become a show of solidarity more so than an actual deterrent for the virus.

    Some of my family members have had it. One is a nurse, one was her daughter. Both quarantined for 14 days. Both are completely fine. This is closer to most people’s experience than those ending up in the ICU.

    The people with the least possibility of getting it, or transmitting it are paying the heaviest price, the kids.

    Do I think it needs to run its course, idk. I think it will, despite our best efforts.
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    Originally Posted by CommitmentRulz View Post
    So, is it GOOD news that Biden said today that 120,000,000 (yes 120 million) people have died from COVID? I guess that means there's not many left for COVID to kill, since Biden also previously said guns had killed 150 million Americans...


    Former Vice President Joe Biden said he "would do everything possible" to ensure that Americans wear masks in public if elected president. Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, told CBS News Pittsburgh affiliate KDKA that wearing a mask in public helps to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

    "I would go back to making sure that everybody had masks," Biden said. Both he and the interviewer wore masks and stood eight feet apart.

    "The one thing we do know is that these masks make a gigantic difference. I would insist that everybody in public be wearing that masks," Biden continued. "I would do everything possible to make it required that people have to wear masks in public."
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post
    As usual, informative post Plateauplower.

    Question, with a lot of mild/asymptomatic cases like you mention, wouldn't this be an argument to have more mask wearing policies to slow the spread? It seems like a no brainer to me, but perhaps I am missing something.
    Yes masks seem to work based on pre-COVID research studies I’ve read in preventing respiratory disease in hospitals (nosocomial infections). The research suggests even surgical masks can reduce transmission by 90+% when worn correctly, which is hard for me to believe. That was on a variety of flu, rhino, and other corona viruses. It sucks, but is pretty effective evidently.
    Last edited by Plateauplower; 06-26-2020 at 08:27 AM.
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    things to consider:

    a) How accurate is the testing? It is known to produce false positive. Just ask Tanzania. They had a goat and papaya come up hot.

    b) How are deaths determined? Did you know that if someone dies of heart attack and the person happens to have covid, the cause of death is covid? Dying of covid versus dying with covid needs to have clear distinction.

    c) Yes. More people are coming up hot. But so what? What is the death rate? LOW. So high positive versus low death is actually a good thing.

    d) What do Florida, and Arizona, and Texas have on common? they are red patriotic states full of old people. Old people are vulnerable to ANYTHING, not just the rona.

    Covid is real. But it has been politicized and used as a weapon to take freedoms away and it has been used as an excuse to cover up the global depression.

    Live your lives how you see fit. But don't live in fear. And don't support tyrannical measures that make "1984" and "Animal Farm" and "Soylent Green" a reality.
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    Last I checked the Nasal swab testing (people not goats) had around 18% false negative results, not false positive. Animals can be dead end hosts for some viruses, they catch but do not transmit it.

    Yes death numbers are now skewed to include deaths with rather than from COVID. However, early on they were under reported by a wide margin (I.e. pneumonia as cause of death until we started testing)

    The people who will die from it, for the most part, were likely not long for this earth anyway. It is a pretty narrow demographic of people with fatal outcomes.

    7000 - 8000 people die in the US everyday. How many of the 600-1000 daily deaths we are seeing now would have died anyway? All just things to consider, I don’t have the data and don’t have an answer. That data won’t be available until we are further along. If deaths spike again we could end up with more deaths than normal for the year. 1968 was pretty bad for flu (from China lol), no lockdowns then, but plenty of rioting. Strange how history repeats itself.
    Last edited by Plateauplower; 06-26-2020 at 07:42 AM.
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    Appreciate the response Plateauplower


    Florida shattered its single-day record of new coronavirus cases reported on Friday, adding an additional 8,942 confirmed infections, according to the Department of Health.

    The state broke the previous record of 5,508, which was just set two days ago. Florida now has 122,960 coronavirus cases across the state. There have been 3,366 total deaths.


    Florida and Texas are closing down bars in light of the recent surges
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