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  1. #31
    Registered User isingmodel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    The IFR (the actual mortality rate as opposed to the CFR or confirmed deaths / confirmed cases, which is around 6% in the US right now) has been estimated around 0.5% since the very start of this. If it's down to 0.26% now, that's probably a reflection of the reduction in the use of hydroxychloroquine based on current research on its ineffectiveness.
    Frankly I'm not sure how the CDC are arriving at 0.26%, and it's not worth attaching any weight to the figure till we know more about their methods.

    That is quite a bit lower than the antibody studies that have been done in the US, and in most European countries.

    It's definitely possible that it's that low, it's still even at the lower end of the initial IFR estimates by the WHO from several months ago. It just contradicts the best available evidence.
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  2. #32
    Unregistered User Cleveland33's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    This is an important point that is often lost for the "it's just the flu, bro" crew. The deaths from Covid are heavily skewed to elderly and compromised patients, but normal people get sick as fukk but just don't die. I've had several people tell me it's the absolute worst illness they've ever had and it's not even close. One guy said it felt like there was an elephant sitting on his chest for a week. A woman said it felt like she was slowly suffocating for hours at a time. Both are in the 40s and otherwise healthy, and they didn't die, but they don't wish that experience on anyone.
    To be fair, most people have never been sick with anything beyond the cold and flu - maybe a sinus or ear infection at worst.
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  3. #33
    Registered User Jayarbie's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by isingmodel View Post
    Frankly I'm not sure how the CDC are arriving at 0.26%, and it's not worth attaching any weight to the figure till we know more about their methods.

    That is quite a bit lower than the antibody studies that have been done in the US, and in most European countries.

    It's definitely possible that it's that low, it's still even at the lower end of the initial IFR estimates by the WHO from several months ago. It just contradicts the best available evidence.
    Yeah, from what I've seen, I'm still inclined to believe the IFR is closer to the original 0.5%, but I'm watching for research that indicates otherwise. In reality, the IFR should decrease slowly as we learn what the best treatments are and are better able to save people who would have died earlier in the pandemic.
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  4. #34
    Registered User Jayarbie's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    To be fair, most people have never been sick with anything beyond the cold and flu - maybe a sinus or ear infection at worst.
    But that's the point. The "it's just the flu, bro" crowd is insisting that it's not any worse than those diseases. They're not saying "it's just metastatic brain cancer, bro".
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  5. #35
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    Originally Posted by trumpgavemoney View Post
    strong understanding of infectious disease

    y i k e s
    Try to keep up
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  6. #36
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    Originally Posted by trumpgavemoney View Post
    You move backwards so fast tho.
    at least I can understand the point
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  7. #37
    Registered User Jayarbie's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by JUSA View Post
    Not quite sure that's how it works, although 0.26% is a LOT less than some early figures (and I'm glad to see that).

    With the flu, less people are going to get it every year b/c sometimes the vaccines actually work, more people have had previous strains of the flu in prior years and CV-19 appears to spread more rapidly/easier than the flu (although, again, not nearly as easily as originally stated).

    It's well beyond a pretty bad flu season for those reasons BUT I also do not think it's nearly as big a crisis as some people thought or still think and we're still learning more and more about it as time passes.

    For the record: I want states to figure this out on their own, my state of Texas should reopen (glad it is), social distancing is fine, masks should be optional but encouraged and large crowds/gatherings avoided with people highly at risk (elderly) opting to quarantine. Also, the media is making this out to be far more than it is, completely sensationalizing this and twisting things to make it seem worse than it is -- however, it IS well beyond 'just a flu' by a good margin based on what I've seen so far.
    I certainly agree with this. The first time around for this particular bug is going to be the worst. After that, it will still exist, but it will be more like a flu for a couple reasons. First, as you said, many people will have a natural immunity from having had it once already, but also, the dominant evolutionary pattern for viruses is to mutate to be less virulent over time. A virus that kills or incapacitates its hosts is harder to spread than one whose hosts are all healthy enough to be walking around giving it to others. The 1918 flu pandemic finally subsided in 1920 not with a vaccine but when the virus mutated into a regular H1N1 flu that didn't kill people en masse as it had been doing for 2 years.
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  8. #38
    No Agony, No Bragony JUSA's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by trumpgavemoney View Post
    Doctors/scientists: This is a very dangerous virus.
    Idiots: It's just the flu.

    Nothing to see here. Another case of idiots gonna idiot.
    Idiots on both sides of this one, though.

    Doctors/scientists: This is a very dangerous virus.
    Idiots: It's just the flu.
    OtherIdiots: Over 300,000 people will die by May 1.
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  9. #39
    Forever College Student CaliSuperSport's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BadMonkeyFunker View Post
    Oh sure sure I'd go with the cops with a smile on my face knowing that you'll never have one on yours. You'll get multiple warnings from me to stay the fuk away. You dont comply then you're threatening my life.
    People are charged with assault for sneezing or coughing on people.

    I dont know how virus will affect me or my family. And I am not about to find out because a cucksukin tough guy thought he doesnt need to wear a mask and got up in my face.
    You're talking about comitting battery and getting arrested in front of your family and calling others the tough guy? Fukin lol

    Fwiw I don't never expect enlightening insight from you. Or common sense or a triple digit IQ. Stop being an emotional paranoid nerve bag
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  10. #40
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    Originally Posted by CaliSuperSport View Post
    You're talking about comitting battery and getting arrested in front of your family and calling others the tough guy? Fukin lol

    Fwiw I don't never expect enlightening insight from you. Or common sense or a triple digit IQ. Stop being an emotional paranoid nerve bag
    Its called self defense. You dumb fuk. And thankfully people are not as stupid as you. They realize not everybody is 'fine' with not having a mask and respect people's 'safe space'
    Especially after first warning.

    I rather be a paranoid nerve bag than a sick or dead one or worse get my family and my kids sick. That's fine with me.
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  11. #41
    Registered User engj's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    This is an important point that is often lost for the "it's just the flu, bro" crew. The deaths from Covid are heavily skewed to elderly and compromised patients, but normal people get sick as fukk but just don't die. I've had several people tell me it's the absolute worst illness they've ever had and it's not even close. One guy said it felt like there was an elephant sitting on his chest for a week. A woman said it felt like she was slowly suffocating for hours at a time. Both are in the 40s and otherwise healthy, and they didn't die, but they don't wish that experience on anyone.
    Weird how variable it seems to be. One of our corporate lawyers caught a confirmed case and had very minor symptoms.

    He said it felt like a case of DOMS that hung around for a week. Nothing respiratory at all, and the dude has mild asthma.
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  12. #42
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    Originally Posted by engj View Post
    Weird how variable it seems to be. One of our corporate lawyers caught a confirmed case and had very minor symptoms.

    He said it felt like a case of DOMS that hung around for a week. Nothing respiratory at all, and the dude has mild asthma.
    What’s getting lost in this due to the public and media only presenting information in a vacuum, is that many people, young and old, have varying severity of symptoms with the flu. Young people die of otherwise benign pathogens at times. It just happens. So it’s no surprise that young people, under rare circumstances, die from covid.
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  13. #43
    kein mitleid fr mehrheit Stizzel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    To be fair, most people have never been sick with anything beyond the cold and flu - maybe a sinus or ear infection at worst.
    I had asthma when I was a kid and had to be hospitalized a couple times. When you cant breathe its really terrifying. To go through that for a week straight....no thanks.

    Im strongly against lock downs but at the same time, dont take this lightly
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  14. #44
    Registered User Jayarbie's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by engj View Post
    Weird how variable it seems to be. One of our corporate lawyers caught a confirmed case and had very minor symptoms.

    He said it felt like a case of DOMS that hung around for a week. Nothing respiratory at all, and the dude has mild asthma.
    Yeah, it's totally variable. One of my wife's college friend's parents are in their 70s and retired in FL (and active and more or less relatively healthy). The man got it bad and unfortunately passed away. The woman was tested since she was obviously exposed to it, and she tested positive but never had any symptoms at all (not even sniffles).

    I think that's one of the things that makes this particularly dangerous. There can be tons of people walking around completely oblivious that have it and any one of the people they give it to could get totally hammered by it.
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  15. #45
    Registered User Jayarbie's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Stizzel View Post
    I had asthma when I was a kid and had to be hospitalized a couple times. When you cant breathe its really terrifying. To go through that for a week straight....no thanks.

    Im strongly against lock downs but at the same time, dont take this lightly
    This is the correct attitude. This isn't a hoax and it's not "just the flu". There is a legitimate discussion that needs to be had concerning the cost of mitigation (i.e. lockdown) vs the cost of letting it spread, but that discussion must occur in the context of the truth about both sides of the discussion and not BS CT about hoaxes and Bill Gates.
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  16. #46
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    The IFR (the actual mortality rate as opposed to the CFR or confirmed deaths / confirmed cases, which is around 6% in the US right now) has been estimated around 0.5% since the very start of this. If it's down to 0.26% now, that's probably a reflection of the reduction in the use of hydroxychloroquine based on current research on its ineffectiveness.
    ...except when used as properly directed, HCQ is very effective you MSM shill
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    Originally Posted by BadMonkeyFunker View Post
    My next door neighbor got it. 37 yrs old fit dude with no health issues. He burned with high fever for 9 days. Every night fever came back did not let go. He recovered on day 14 with no respiratory problems. He's back to work now.
    Lost 22Lb and wanted to kill himself on day 8 because fever and body aches were too much to handle. He was ready to let go.

    So you dont believe the #s, you like to go out and make out with your phagotty friends. You do that.
    I'll have my mask on and fuk you up if you get close to me or my family without a mask.


    zerofuksgiven what you believe or not.
    Sounds like he should of used Hydroxy like Trump said.
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