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  1. #91
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Payton1221 View Post
    Sadly, no. I sold the TSLA, Waste Management, and Nike and have $26K sitting on the sideline. A part of my reasoning is waiting for a small drop for better prices, but the bigger reason is that I have just not taken the time to do the necessary research for replacement stocks.
    If you're waiting for a better price, and if your broker allows you, sell a put option for a price you think is reasonable. That way your money is making money ( the premium you collect for the contract) and if assigned the shares you're happy with the entry price.
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  2. #92
    Registered User Cantplankwell's Avatar
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    Has any one bothered with REITs, or any Notes investing?
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  3. #93
    Registered User Payton1221's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Cantplankwell View Post
    Has any one bothered with REITs, or any Notes investing?
    My wife and I put money in a Roth for a few years. I put all of one in Vanguard Healthcare (VGHCX I think) and the other in Vanguard Real Estate Index (VGSLX). I had no idea how much of a beating I've taken with the real estate account We don't have a lot of money in each, but I'm calculating that we lost about $6,000 with the real estate fund.
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  4. #94
    Registered User Payton1221's Avatar
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    I'm getting a little nervous considering the 10 year run-up. I'm 53 (wife is 51) and my desire is to continue work for many years. So I recognize that I should have a lot (perhaps even the majority) of money in stocks, but we've got more money than we've ever had and I think that we can still reach our goals with a safer asset allocation. So as of last week, we moved all of our money (except for ~$5,000 of fun money) into a mix that closely mimics the one recommended by hedge fund manager Ray Dalio that he calls the All-Weather portfolio. The portfolio has been backchecked to 1926 (I think) and it has made money 85% of the time but with typically less gains during the bull years. 30% of our assets are in an S&P 500 index, so we still want the market to go up, but I just don't have the stomach for another 50% drop like we saw late 2007 to March 2009
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  5. #95
    Getting Toned steffo99's Avatar
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    Just so glad crypto started up again. Been waiting for 2 years now and this week was lucky enough to be part of a deal yielding 300% in a short time. Being more careful this time around and cashing out earlier. Working towards my dream of finacial freedom and hoping this run or the next could be it. Got there 2 years ago but held on too long and lost most of the gains I made. Just want a small house next to a lake and the ability to say fk you to everyone and everything.
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  6. #96
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    Originally Posted by steffo99 View Post
    Just want a small house next to a lake and the ability to say fk you to everyone and everything.
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  7. #97
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    I have been playing a few angles. Bought Apple before the split and when market crashed at covid. I have put a lot more in the stock market, but I am considering hedging my bets with more bitcoin. I bought another bit coin a while back just to get me to a nice round number, but I said I would stop there and hold. But the more I see, the more it make we want to make a bold move on that front. My dollar cost average for bit coin is still below $2000 since I mined much of it. Even with buying some in the 10 range, it still has to take a very big hit for me to not come out OK. But I am a little nervous since the move I would like to make exposes me a lot more and will bring my DCA up to the point where there is a lot more chance of 'real' risk.
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  8. #98
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    I have been playing a few angles. Bought Apple before the split and when market crashed at covid. I have put a lot more in the stock market, but I am considering hedging my bets with more bitcoin. I bought another bit coin a while back just to get me to a nice round number, but I said I would stop there and hold. But the more I see, the more it make we want to make a bold move on that front. My dollar cost average for bit coin is still below $2000 since I mined much of it. Even with buying some in the 10 range, it still has to take a very big hit for me to not come out OK. But I am a little nervous since the move I would like to make exposes me a lot more and will bring my DCA up to the point where there is a lot more chance of 'real' risk.
    I picked up a bunch of Apple recently at $119 thinking I was buying the dip. It hasnt stopped dipping lol.
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  9. #99
    Registered User Payton1221's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    . . . I am considering hedging my bets with more bitcoin.
    Tim Ferriss had Mike Novogratz (a very successful ex-hedge fund manager) on a podcast somewhat recently, and he's bullish on bitcoin. Of the very little money I still have in individual stocks, I bought a little bit of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC) as a less sophisticated way to try and profit from a rising bitcoin market.
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  10. #100
    Registered User Cantplankwell's Avatar
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    Pretty much have decided to go with "Asset Allocation ETFs" Since I am 5-10 years out (depending on where interest rates are in 5 or 6 years)

    Vanguard funds..."VCNS" is an example of this. Its a fund of funds... 60% bonds, 40% equities...there is an even more conservative version that is more weighted in bonds. The equities are wide range exposure very conservative.

    I was lucky with my previous self picked jitney thrown together portfolio I did in 2009, there was almost no way to lose at that time looking forward, i got a double boost in the appreciation of the stocks a long the years...as well as a currency boost on about 30% of the stocks which were in USD...at the time of purchase.

    Now it is a lot more complicated.

    Still not sure when I will get back in, not before 6-8 months I would think, its going to get crazy again I am certain.
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  11. #101
    Moderator SuffolkPunch's Avatar
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    Honestly I wouldn't bother with bonds. They have such low interest rates at the moment. I have some money put into FLOT which is floating rate bonds - but this is because I'm taking a view that interest rates will rise (and devalue fixed rate bonds).

    I have some money in SEMB (emerging markets bonds) which are a bit more spicy at around 6% (but with a higher default risk).

    Beyond that Warren Buffets basic advice of buying an S&P 500 tracker is about as foolproof as you can get long term.

    I have VUSA (S&P 500) for this reason plus global mid cap equities (IWFS), healthcare sector (IHCU - lucked out on this one...!), cyber security sector (ISPY - also outperformed the market).

    Also bear in mind that if you also have a private pension plan (401k I guess you'd call it), you don't want to duplicate what that is invested in - better to diversify away from it.
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  12. #102
    Registered User Cantplankwell's Avatar
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    Thing about the bonds is that it takes some of the volatility out of the portfolio.

    I have a "defined contribution" workplace pension, its has performed OK, its mostly bonds similar to the vanguard, but the MERS are really high, not sure what I can do about that, inside this package the choices are very limited...it really does suck. I don't know if I can opt out or not, I plan to look into it.

    I would say I have about 65% of what I need to retire on, so I want to preserve with some conservative growth. Everyone you talk to has different interesting idea. Ideally I would work until the various government pensions begin to kick in, and maybe I can work less...if the money is OK I probably would still like to work....some
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  13. #103
    Registered User Payton1221's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Cantplankwell View Post
    Thing about the bonds is that it takes some of the volatility out of the portfolio.
    Originally Posted by SuffolkPunch View Post
    Honestly I wouldn't bother with bonds. They have such low interest rates at the moment.
    CPW is right about removing some volatility, but long term, you're right about the S&P.

    Interest rates have been down for several years now, but one of the bond positions I hold is I-Shares Twenty+ Year Treasury (ticker: TLT). It's averaged a 6+ percent gain over each of the last five years. Averaging 6% per year for the next 10-15 years will definitely put our family in a great spot unless there's some kind of aberration like hyper inflation.
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  14. #104
    Moderator SuffolkPunch's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Payton1221 View Post

    Interest rates have been down for several years now, but one of the bond positions I hold is I-Shares Twenty+ Year Treasury (ticker: TLT). It's averaged a 6+ percent gain over each of the last five years. Averaging 6% per year for the next 10-15 years will definitely put our family in a great spot unless there's some kind of aberration like hyper inflation.
    That may be as a result of declining interest rates (which inflates the value of current fixed coupon bonds). So it may not continue to do that since rates are effectively bottomed out. As always, I might be wrong...
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  15. #105
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    I picked up a bunch of Apple recently at $119 thinking I was buying the dip. It hasnt stopped dipping lol.
    I know. It is never easy knowing when the dipping stops. But, I believe you are in good position. It is most likely where a lot of traders are with Apple and other big tech stocks. NASDAQ took a beating this past week, but it opens the door to opportunity.

    Another thing I'm staying away from is REITs ad Municipal Bonds. I hate it when I see commercials pitching municipal bonds - during this period of instability and uncertainty, since city governments thrive on revenue from businesses.
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  16. #106
    Registered User Payton1221's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    I picked up a bunch of Apple recently at $119 thinking I was buying the dip. It hasnt stopped dipping lol.
    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    I know. It is never easy knowing when the dipping stops.
    There's always going to be a certain amount of luck too. I coincidentally wanted to change my asset allocation and sold all 20 shares of AAPL on that I owned on Aug 24 for a split adjusted $126 which is 10% HIGHER than it currently sells for. But I agree that AAPL is a good stock to own.
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  17. #107
    Registered User Cantplankwell's Avatar
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    Thinking about what you guys are saying, about having luck etc.

    I listen to a lot of podcasts on trading with a bias on how it fits into retirement planning. A fact that was brought to light was in the last 50 years there have only been say 10 years or less.... some such number like that when the market more or less met conservative return rates like say 5 or 6% which is a good respectable number I can live with. But most of the time the markets...across all of the indexes were either negative returns...really bad years...and there are quite a few of those, as well as a fair number of years where there were the returns were well in excess of 10%.

    One or two bad or good years can completely warp your perception of how to approach investing or managing stock picks you want to make that day. As time goes on I feel that "gut feeling" or "luck" to support your strategy can't be the way to go.
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  18. #108
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    I might be a little crazy, but I have been watching closely and and decided to add more to my bitcoin. My bitcoin is currently worth more than my traditional investments, but I would be fine without it.....( I had forgotten all about my crypto till 2017 when I traded to move everything into BTC.)

    I am treating the bitcoin as 'go big or go home'. I bought a couple recently just to screw around that I may sell if it hits 20k which more than covers my initial investment. (which were all my mining rigs and $800 power bills for 3 months) It is goes very big, I am planning on selling the big chunk when it would change what I did the next day I woke up. Not there yet....but rolling the dice.
    Last edited by induced_drag; 09-17-2020 at 12:58 PM.
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  19. #109
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    I know. It is never easy knowing when the dipping stops. But, I believe you are in good position. It is most likely where a lot of traders are with Apple and other big tech stocks. NASDAQ took a beating this past week, but it opens the door to opportunity.

    Another thing I'm staying away from is REITs ad Municipal Bonds. I hate it when I see commercials pitching municipal bonds - during this period of instability and uncertainty, since city governments thrive on revenue from businesses.
    Ive cost averaged down a little more. Sold a call for $200 before Apples event and bought it back for 55% profit yesterday. I'll wait and see it rise up but I plan on selling OTM calls for a little bit and collect for a while while picking up the dividend.

    The whole tech drop caught me. I'm sitting on way more shares than I like and had to take a realized lose on some call options. Still up pretty good for the year but have to pause my weekly withdrawal payments for a bit.

    BTW did you see that horse **** on the IPO SNOW? Retail traders get so screwed...

    Bonds - the FED has completely fuked those up I'm assuming? I have 30k in CDs that will be up for renewl this year. This is bascially our rainy day funds (actually keep 50k but 15k is locked for another year). They range from 2.9-2.25% but I can't get more than .85 (last I looked) so don't know what I'm going to do w/that money. Don't want to renew at such a low rate. Maybe an ETF? Maybe SPY? The election coming up scares me some.
    Last edited by Jtbny; 09-17-2020 at 02:39 PM.
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  20. #110
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    so don't know what I'm going to do w/that money. Don't want to renew at such a low rate. Maybe an ETF? Maybe SPY? The election coming up scares me some.
    BITCOIN ....>It is hard not to see a big upside even in the short term with all the uncertainty and money printing around the world.

    Even do 1/2 and then pull out when the gain would give you what 3% would in the cd for the total for the year. Heck, it might only take a week to see those gains on any given week.

    We are at 10900 on bitcoin and it hit 12k before a big sell off a couple weeks ago. My gut says it is on the way back up there. To get your 3% you only need to see a rise to 11,300 ish..... (which can happen in a day in bit coin)

    Just playing devils advocate...but momentum is looking pretty good for 12k again at least to test resistance.
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  21. #111
    High Plains Lifter Mark1T's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    Ive cost averaged down a little more. Sold a call for $200 before Apples event and bought it back for 55% profit yesterday. I'll wait and see it rise up but I plan on selling OTM calls for a little bit and collect for a while while picking up the dividend.

    The whole tech drop caught me. I'm sitting on way more shares than I like and had to take a realized lose on some call options. Still up pretty good for the year but have to pause my weekly withdrawal payments for a bit.

    BTW did you see that horse **** on the IPO SNOW? Retail traders get so screwed...

    Bonds - the FED has completely fuked those up I'm assuming? I have 30k in CDs that will be up for renewl this year. This is bascially our rainy day funds (actually keep 50k but 15k is locked for another year). They range from 2.9-2.25% but I can't get more than .85 (last I looked) so don't know what I'm going to do w/that money. Don't want to renew at such a low rate. Maybe an ETF? Maybe SPY? The election coming up scares me some.
    This market has brought new and unforeseen risk. Too volatile for me. At this stage, I just want to keep what I've got.

    I regards to IPO SNOW, you mean when they upped the price range quite a bit? Lower voting power? Basically institutional investors - Buffet threw in $500 Million.

    I don't like IPOs anyway, especially trading on IPO day. Investment bankers take advantage by pumping and dumping and just when you thought you made a huge profit, you lost your shirt. Not for me.

    RE your bond positions, take your time and talk some pros who can give you some smart options.
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  22. #112
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    BITCOIN .
    I'm scared of this though. I just don't understand how it moves or the fundamentals. I follow it a bit but havent looked into it seriously.

    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    This market has brought new and unforeseen risk. Too volatile for me. At this stage, I just want to keep what I've got.

    I regards to IPO SNOW, you mean when they upped the price range quite a bit? Lower voting power? Basically institutional investors - Buffet threw in $500 Million.

    I don't like IPOs anyway, especially trading on IPO day. Investment bankers take advantage by pumping and dumping and just when you thought you made a huge profit, you lost your shirt. Not for me.

    RE your bond positions, take your time and talk some pros who can give you some smart options.
    I'm the same with IPOs. I invest in SPAQs instead. You nailed it though. I think Warren made 500m in 3 hours on this thing. They ran it up and launched it mid day at $245. Retail didn't even have a chance. You're right too. The dump will happen and many will be left holding the bags.

    My wife and I are thinking of buying a duplex in 2 years as an investment. Bonds/CDs/High yield savings just seems like a wasted opportunity while the market is being manipulated too much for me to have "safe money" involved beyond our retirements.
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  23. #113
    High Plains Lifter Mark1T's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    I'm scared of this though. I just don't understand how it moves or the fundamentals. I follow it a bit but havent looked into it seriously.



    I'm the same with IPOs. I invest in SPAQs instead. You nailed it though. I think Warren made 500m in 3 hours on this thing. They ran it up and launched it mid day at $245. Retail didn't even have a chance. You're right too. The dump will happen and many will be left holding the bags.

    My wife and I are thinking of buying a duplex in 2 years as an investment. Bonds/CDs/High yield savings just seems like a wasted opportunity while the market is being manipulated too much for me to have "safe money" involved beyond our retirements.
    Cool on the duplex. Just an obvious suggestion, make sure the market demand is back so that you're not holding the bag
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  24. #114
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post

    My wife and I are thinking of buying a duplex in 2 years as an investment. .

    You are all set till the govt gets involved and the 'cancel rent' group gets going. CDC now has banned evictions till after Dec. I have a bunch of rental properties, and have been lucky that all my tenants are still paying.

    I think WTF w/ the govt putting hold on evictions...even if they put a hold on morgtages (which they have not) what about the people who own outright the properties and depend on the cash flows?

    Rentals make sense for me since I have resources. I manage them and take care of any repairs/maint myself or with people who work for me from time to time.

    Funny...when it rains, it pours. Last week, I had a main waterline spring a leak between meter and house from tree roots,yep, I dug that hole and was down on my hands and knees in the mud fixing the line. And I had a fridge go out in another. So it can be a pain in the butt at times. In the past 10 years I have only had to evict a small number of people. Most people are pretty good and I have several renters been with me almost a decade. Biggest thing is water damage from washers and dryers. I have had a few insurance claims because of that. A lot of times tenants dont bring the nicest washers with them and when they go, they can do a number on the house. I think I have had 2 go on me. Oh...and one diswasher line broke/leaked badly one time.

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  25. #115
    High Plains Lifter Mark1T's Avatar
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    Not to influence anyone, but I am not buying on this dip, because there are too many factors dragging the market. Such as the major banks and their money laundering fiasco, election fears this close to the election. I will be on the sidelines most likely until January 15, 2021.
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  26. #116
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    Not to influence anyone, but I am not buying on this dip, because there are too many factors dragging the market. Such as the major banks and their money laundering fiasco, election fears this close to the election. I will be on the sidelines most likely until January 15, 2021.
    I should have done this too. I'm too deep at this point
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  27. #117
    High Plains Lifter Mark1T's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    I should have done this too. I'm too deep at this point
    Who knows, you might win. I hope you do!
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  28. #118
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    Not to influence anyone, but I am not buying on this dip, because there are too many factors dragging the market. Such as the major banks and their money laundering fiasco, election fears this close to the election. I will be on the sidelines most likely until January 15, 2021.
    I've toned down the buying, but VSGAX (small cap) and VFIAX (S&P500) continue to perform for the year. VSGAX outperforms the S&P500 in the long run too, where the majority of my money sits.

    Also bought some VDE (Energy ETF), it's way down and I intend to hold onto this for at least 5-10 years to see the return.

    Also bought a few funds that typically track the S&P 500 and are down on the year about 15%, one was VTMSX so I bought some of that too.

    Once the election is over, I'll re-asses and do my Roth IRA contributions. I'd like to get into the mega caps and large growth caps, but they seem over-valued to me right now.
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  29. #119
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    Close to getting my house by the lake today but the ICO folks ****ed up the process in several ways and the token distribution before listing - they have a good working product but couldn't do this correctly..still happy to pull out completely with 50% profit..but that is not great considering the risk taken. I've seen this several times now so didn't expect much, but at listing when I was supposed to have tokens it was 10x. Oh well, on to the next one. Just happy about myself in this process...close to zero emotions, compared to coinvesters, pulling out to live another day while others stay in on hopium. Waited 2 weeks for this event, everything went wrong ...but esacped in good shape so happy with that. Good learning process though..adding a certain criteria a project needs to fulfill for me to invest in the future.
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    My taxable account was almost wiped out ~May 8 when I sold $25,000. That account was left with one share of Amazon, one share of Google, and 4 shares (which split in Aug to give me 16 shares) of Apple. I sold all of them yesterday to pay off my wife's car loan early, but the values of those stocks then and now are:

    Amazon: $2,380 to $3,446
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    Up 40% in 5+ months. I couldn't believe it when I logged on and realized I had $2,000 more than when I checked in May.
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