Active market traders

[Payton1221]

But I'm smart enough to switch if needed.

Good luck with that. The problem is, when you think a new trend has been established (switching because it has been going lower and you anticipate it to continue lower), it can reverse again.

[Jtbny]

Good luck with that. The problem is, when you think a new trend has been established (switching because it has been going lower and you anticipate it to continue lower), it can reverse again.

I'm always hedging so I'm good or at least somewhat prepared - I hope. I hedge w/ put options especially if I'm heavily leveraged. Not to mention I'm playing mainly SPACs which have a floor price before a merger so limit my downside.

Not to mention although we are at all time highs do you know what those replaced? All time highs. We will see a correction someday but volatility should continue to decline now that we aren't legislating via Tweet. When the FED stops easing and gobbling up corp bonds I'd pay attention. Until then - printers go brrrrrr.

[NorwichGrad]

I'm always hedging so I'm good or at least somewhat prepared - I hope. I hedge w/ put options especially if I'm heavily leveraged. Not to mention I'm playing mainly SPACs which have a floor price before a merger so limit my downside.

Not to mention although we are at all time highs do you know what those replaced? All time highs. We will see a correction someday but volatility should continue to decline now that we aren't legislating via Tweet. When the FED stops easing and gobbling up corp bonds I'd pay attention. Until then - printers go brrrrrr.

Yup! Spot on!


The 10-year-yield is one of the metrics I look at. It measures investor confidence, which ties into money printing. So when confidence is low and the 10-year-yield drops, the fed simply BRRRRS. LOL.

Liquidity is definitely something to watch, to your point. If the spigot is shut off, there will be credit freeze. That's why we had the 'NOT QE REPO QE' back in September 2019 to the tune of almost 1 trillion a night by EOY. Again, just smh.

Another is velocity of money. We are in a consumer driven economy, as you know. As Americans continue to lose their jobs in Main Street, velocity will slow down which could trigger deflation. Deflation is something hardly anyone pays attention to. It's just as bad as hyperinflation. In fact, I would even say deflation triggers hyperinflation.

For this reason, the fed keeps printing to keep the velocity going. That's why we had the 1200 stimulus, and the more recent 600. Eventually UBI will be the norm.

And I know you know all this stuff, John. Just thought I'd add for the benefit of other participants.

So yes, friends. We will see the greatest Wall Street illusion this year for sure.

We might as well play the game.

One thing I will add is this:

Everything is a derivative of the debt market. The only exception is physical gold and silver; they are real money. And even fiat currencies are a derivative of gold and silver. You guys know what else? Technically, crypto currencies are also 'indirectly' a derivative of silver, because silver is needed in technology for cryptos to function.

[Cantplankwell]

So you would park money there right now? I wouldn't. The market is way to bullish with very little bear triggers to make me dump money in bonds right now. Long term, maybe, but I have 20 years until I retire.

I think some of you are misunderstanding the purpose of the thread - its ACTIVE market not PASSIVE market traders. I have a set it and forget it 401k but I also ACTIVELY trade in a separate brokerage account to generate income now, not in retirement.

This is the thing tho...At nearly 55 my view on bonds is different from someone that is possibly decades or more away from hanging it up.

I could 3-5 years best case, 10 years worse case from hanging it up. Its a completely different asset allocation at this point, I should be about 50-50 fixed/equity...which was where I headed... in the process of rebalancing. atm I have only one stock, the bond fund is doing quite well...around 6-8% There are two of them.

A customer/friend of mine got caught in the mess of 2008, he was aiming for retirement around 2010 (65) he ended up having to work until he was not healthy enough to enjoy his postwork life. It took years for his portfolio to recover. He is 75, and was hobbling around the mill in sweltering heat doing a dangerous job until 2 years ago, that job took the last of his good years away from him. I learned from that.

I learned back around 95 or 96 that you can't look at 1 or 2 years and call it success...you will have to wait till much later to do so.

We have a workplace pension but the majority of our money is in our own funds through the discount brokerage at my bank...its a seriously significant amount of money...for me anyway(rates and fees are lower). I dont really consider it passive if I have to do all my own research and dissect the bits and pieces of each fund, no one is advising me....so I would not consider it passive completely.

To me passive would be if I was a trust fund kid, dumped all my money in a mutual, or I was a cop or firefighter and my pension success is someone else's problem.

[_zman]

100% on point.



And GM. They have exploded. VW, IMO, will lead the world in EV though. Hyundai will make huge gains too in this area and their partnership w/Canoo is going to help a ton.

Check the recent WSJ article where VW admit they're years behind Tesla in software. Depending on Tesla's strategy, they might not ever catch up. Not to mention they don't have anyway to power electric vehicles compared to the US households and do not have the network of superchargers like Tesla.

I personally didn't think they could catch Tesla and I don't think they will for various reasons. VW is so large, I wouldn't expect them to move quickly or efficiently like a smaller company can. They're too ingrained in their thought processes and procedures. It takes an older, bigger company a lot longer to make the changes they need to make. Unless Tesla fks up their strategy or theirs some type of government intervention or regulation, I don't see anyone catching them. And Tesla has a huge part in battery manufacturing now as well, something companies like VW and others will have to rely on.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-vol...ed-11611073974

A customer/friend of mine got caught in the mess of 2008, he was aiming for retirement around 2010 (65) he ended up having to work until he was not healthy enough to enjoy his postwork life. It took years for his portfolio to recover. He is 75, and was hobbling around the mill in sweltering heat doing a dangerous job until 2 years ago, that job took the last of his good years away from him. I learned from that.

That's the result of poor strategy imo. There's annuity's that can cover your later years and it's guaranteed income. Also having a portion of your portfolio in cash mitigates some risk since you wouldn't have to pull money from your investments. There might be more to this story he isn't telling as well. Probably sold some shares at a loss when he should have been buying with the spare cash.

[Jtbny]

This is the thing tho...At nearly 55 my view on bonds is different from someone that is possibly decades or more away from hanging it up.

Agree I'm 46 and have a bit more time equity but this thread is really about active trading not passive investments were bonds surely have their place.

[Jtbny]

Yup! Spot on!


The 10-year-yield is one of the metrics I look at. It measures investor confidence, which ties into money printing. So when confidence is low and the 10-year-yield drops, the fed simply BRRRRS. LOL.

Liquidity is definitely something to watch, to your point. If the spigot is shut off, there will be credit freeze. That's why we had the 'NOT QE REPO QE' back in September 2019 to the tune of almost 1 trillion a night by EOY. Again, just smh.

Another is velocity of money. We are in a consumer driven economy, as you know. As Americans continue to lose their jobs in Main Street, velocity will slow down which could trigger deflation. Deflation is something hardly anyone pays attention to. It's just as bad as hyperinflation. In fact, I would even say deflation triggers hyperinflation.

For this reason, the fed keeps printing to keep the velocity going. That's why we had the 1200 stimulus, and the more recent 600. Eventually UBI will be the norm.

And I know you know all this stuff, John. Just thought I'd add for the benefit of other participants.

So yes, friends. We will see the greatest Wall Street illusion this year for sure.

We might as well play the game.

One thing I will add is this:

Everything is a derivative of the debt market. The only exception is physical gold and silver; they are real money. And even fiat currencies are a derivative of gold and silver. You guys know what else? Technically, crypto currencies are also 'indirectly' a derivative of silver, because silver is needed in technology for cryptos to function.

Thanks for that and good info.

Check the recent WSJ article where VW admit they're years behind Tesla in software. Depending on Tesla's strategy, they might not ever catch up. Not to mention they don't have anyway to power electric vehicles compared to the US households and do not have the network of superchargers like Tesla.

I personally didn't think they could catch Tesla and I don't think they will for various reasons. VW is so large, I wouldn't expect them to move quickly or efficiently like a smaller company can. They're too ingrained in their thought processes and procedures. It takes an older, bigger company a lot longer to make the changes they need to make. Unless Tesla fks up their strategy or theirs some type of government intervention or regulation, I don't see anyone catching them. And Tesla has a huge part in battery manufacturing now as well, something companies like VW and others will have to rely on.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-vol...ed-11611073974



That's the result of poor strategy imo. There's annuity's that can cover your later years and it's guaranteed income. Also having a portion of your portfolio in cash mitigates some risk since you wouldn't have to pull money from your investments. There might be more to this story he isn't telling as well. Probably sold some shares at a loss when he should have been buying with the spare cash.

Great info, thanks. Maybe it was Toyota that was closer that I was thinking about. You could be right though but there are smaller companies that aren't that far behind Tesla in tech just behind them in scale. These companies (like Canoo and Lucid) are primed for partnerships/buyouts which should speed up the time to market. But ya Tesla is a game changer even if the stock price is crazy.

https://www.lucidmotors.com/
https://www.canoo.com/

[NorwichGrad]

Hi Gang,

Hope all is well. Hope you guys are kicking azz and making money for your family.

Just thinking out loud as I type. So don't mind the rant.

One thing I have learned as PM stacker is that it gave me the ability to think long term and be patient. I suppose on one hand that's a good trait in investing. On the other hand, there must be balance and understand that shorting the market is also a good skill to have. This thread is about active trading after all.

I'm glad I took profit when BTC was high enough. Who knows what's gonna happen in the future. There are indicators that suggest cryptos may go bearish, in which case I'll just pick up some more. But timing the bottom is a skill and a challenge in and by itself. There are also speculations that the whales are playing their game and trying to shake off weak hands so that institutional investors can scoop up more coins. Again, time will tell.

I listen to all, but I follow none.

One thing I know is that whatever the top commodity / stock is going into the new paradigm, it does not always remain on top. In other words, other companies / commodities will take over once that market reaches maturity.

For example, I B M was once a giant going into the computer age. Now it's Apple.

My opinion is that bitcoin will not always be on top. There is another crypto out there that will take over. The question is which is it? I don't know. But I do know that smart investors who feel that they missed the boat on the first great company, will always, always, look for the second best company that will take over.

Investing is also emotional. We seem to ignore this fact. We're only human after all.

Thanks for listening.

[induced_drag]

I'm glad I took profit when BTC was high enough. Who knows what's gonna happen in the future. There are indicators that suggest cryptos may go bearish, in which case I'll just pick up some more.

BTC is likely to draw back to mid 20's. At least that is what I am seeing. Miners right now are taking profits. Which most miners have not sold significant amount for 8 months. It is being eaten up by institutional buyers which is a good sign. Only thing is everybody is a little spooked by the new administration.

What is kinda cool is charts are showing both a pull back AND a run to 50k. Too hard to truly predict. As far as taking profits. Since I am long on btc, any profit taking would have to have a swing greater than the short term capitol gains, since I want to be back in it. It is what has made me decide just to ride it out and not attempt to predict the market. Making up for the large bite that CG take out, you have to be up into very significant corrections if you are wanting to be back in it.

[NorwichGrad]

BTC is likely to draw back to mid 20's. At least that is what I am seeing. Miners right now are taking profits. Which most miners have not sold significant amount for 8 months. It is being eaten up by institutional buyers which is a good sign. Only thing is everybody is a little spooked by the new administration.

What is kinda cool is charts are showing both a pull back AND a run to 50k. Too hard to truly predict. As far as taking profits. Since I am long on btc, any profit taking would have to have a swing greater than the short term capitol gains, since I want to be back in it. It is what has made me decide just to ride it out and not attempt to predict the market. Making up for the large bite that CG take out, you have to be up into very significant corrections if you are wanting to be back in it.

Agreed!!

I would not mind if BTC dropped to 20K. I will back up the truck.

It is only a 'LOSS' if it is sold.

HODL for me as well.

[Jtbny]

One thing I have learned as PM stacker is that it gave me the ability to think long term and be patient. I suppose on one hand that's a good trait in investing. On the other hand, there must be balance and understand that shorting the market is also a good skill to have. This thread is about active trading after all.

And momentum. If you have been following along with the market then you'll notice Gamestop, AMC, Express, and Blackberry have exploded because of a few of us over on Reddit. The market has changed and the "little guy" has more power collectively than many hedge funds - IE they are losing billions shorting Gamestop and AMC.

[NorwichGrad]

And momentum. If you have been following along with the market then you'll notice Gamestop, AMC, Express, and Blackberry have exploded because of a few of us over on Reddit. The market has changed and the "little guy" has more power collectively than many hedge funds - IE they are losing billions shorting Gamestop and AMC.

Yes! I noticed for sure. And I was wondering WHY?

I'm glad you explained and it makes perfect sense now.

I love it when little guys beat hedge funds. I always root for the underdogs!

[Mark1T]

And momentum. If you have been following along with the market then you'll notice Gamestop, AMC, Express, and Blackberry have exploded because of a few of us over on Reddit. The market has changed and the "little guy" has more power collectively than many hedge funds - IE they are losing billions shorting Gamestop and AMC.

This is what scares me about stocks like Gamestock. They seem to be riding Cassino-type highs not based on actual value and I would be scared of it one day crashing. GameStop was a losing company. What happens when the little guys on Reddit move on to other stocks and on and on and leave these behind since they are in it for the short term?

Hey, it’s all good short term, but might end badly.

Not arguing. Just trying to give us somethings to talk about.

[Plateauplower]

This is what scares me about stocks like Gamestock. They seem to be riding Cassino-type highs not based on actual value and I would be scared of it one day crashing. GameStop was a losing company. What happens when the little guys on Reddit move on to other stocks and on and on and leave these behind since they are in it for the short term?

Hey, it’s all good short term, but might end badly.

Not arguing. Just trying to give us somethings to talk about.

Its typical pump and dump trading. There are groups aside from reddit that have been doing this for a looong time. The more people participating the larger the swings. Doesn't change the fact that a lot of people who don't sell at the right time lose their a$$es.

[Jtbny]

Its typical pump and dump trading. There are groups aside from reddit that have been doing this for a looong time. The more people participating the larger the swings. Doesn't change the fact that a lot of people who don't sell at the right time lose their a$$es.

No it isnt. This narrative is totally false.

Its a short squeeze we saw miles away. Some scum bag hedge fund named Miltin Capital shorts companies into bankruptcy. They decided to short GME using more shares than the float making more shares tradable than available (which should be illegal). Then, they brag about crushing them and retail. It bled into other companies with a large short % - AMC, BBY, BB, EXPR ect. make no mistake though this was a direct shot by a large amount of independent retail investors sticking to Wall Street.

This has been a war on scum bags who make a living fleecing retail and now they are almost bankrupt themselves. Don't listen to the lazy reporting you are seeing. I've been on Wall Street Bets for years.

As for GME they are revamping their business model. Look into who just hit the Board and why people were already high on their survival. It's a 15-20 dollar stock on a regular day but the narrative that this is a pump and dump is false. Its a mirror image of the classic short squeeze on VW years ago. It might turn into a pump and dump but that's not even close to how it started.

[NorwichGrad]

John,

I now understand why the stock market tanked today.

Well done! Hahaha.

You redditors kicked those criminals in suit dead in da ballz. Hahaha.

You guys proved that individuals have the power to band together and say “enough is enough.”

My faith in humanity restored.

Well played sir. Well played.

It’s a good day when gubmint and oligarchs get pissed off.

Hope you made tons of money.

[Jtbny]

John,

I now understand why the stock market tanked today.

Well done! Hahaha.

You redditors kicked those criminals in suit dead in da ballz. Hahaha.

You guys proved that individuals have the power to band together and say “enough is enough.”

My faith in humanity restored.

Well played sir. Well played.

It’s a good day when gubmint and oligarchs get pissed off.

It gets better. Wait until Friday after market to see what happens to GME. There is an absurd amount of GME call options expiring in the money these market makers are going to have to cover. Hold on to your pants it might eclipse 1k a share.

Oh an the market dropped because Melvin and others had to convert shares in other companies to cover their margin on GME

I didn't jump in on GME but I did on AMC and Express. I did ok But if I was in on GME I'd hold the line just to sqeeze these douche bags even harder out of spite.

[NorwichGrad]

It gets better. Wait until Friday after market to see what happens to GME. There is an absurd amount of GME call options expiring in the money these market makers are going to have to cover. Hold on to your pants it might eclipse 1k a share.

Oh an the market dropped because Melvin and others had to convert shares in other companies to cover their margin on GME

Hahahaha!!! Nice!!

My hope is that one day criminal JP Morgan will also be bitchslapped by silver stackers the same way you guys did with the hedge fund.

JP has been playing the same game as well for years. There will come a time when they won’t be able to make physical delivery.

[Jtbny]

Hahahaha!!! Nice!!

My hope is that one day criminal JP Morgan will also be bitchslapped by silver stackers the same way you guys did with the hedge fund.

JP has been playing the same game as well for years. There will come a time when they won’t be able to make physical delivery.

I think this was a wake up call to all these scum bags. They got caught with their hand in the cookie jar and now Melvin Cap will likely fold. If JP doesnt watch out they'll be next.

Heres another tid bit. Melvin and others seemed to have hired a troll farm to flood WSB with absurd posts to get it shut down for hate speech and it worked. They think this will slow it down, it wont. Their discontent for retail investors being uneducated will come back to bite them. The world is changing and these boomers arent ready.

[NorwichGrad]

I think this was a wake up call to all these scum bags. They got caught with their hand in the cookie jar and now Melvin Cap will likely fold. If JP doesnt watch out they'll be next.

Heres another tid bit. Melvin and others seemed to have hired a troll farm to flood WSB with absurd posts to get it shut down for hate speech and it worked. They think this will slow it down, it wont. Their discontent for retail investors being uneducated will come back to bite them. The world is changing and these boomers arent ready.

And that makes you a freakin hero in my book, man!!

Just imagine. History may write:

“Reddit Army sparked stock market crash and the fed was unable to print to prop up fake market.”

Some may not like it. But to those who understand the game, this was a heroic act on redditors.

[Jtbny]

And that makes you a freakin hero in my book, man!!

Just imagine. History may write:

“Reddit Army sparked stock market crash and the fed was unable to print to prop up fake market.”

Some may not like it. But to those who understand the game, this was a heroic act on redditors.

Ha thanks. The swarm did some good. Oh, and many, including myself, donate to causes and post proof from our gains on this type of stuff. Mine is going to a local food bank. Many many others do the same.

I agree and the narrative that its a pump and dump doesn't do it justice. The media is having all these WS guys on crying like they're the victim. It's laughable - they literally make their money off the backs of retail and by destroying companies shorting them. We aren't trading these to solely make money (that's not how this started) we are doing this to fuk shorters. That's not a P&D at all.

[NorwichGrad]

Ha thanks. The swarm did some good. Oh, and many, including myself, donate to causes and post proof from our gains on this type of stuff. Mine is going to a local food bank. Many many others do the same.

I agree and the narrative that its a pump and dump doesn't do it justice. The media is having all these WS guys on crying like they're the victim. It's laughable - the literally make their money off the backs of retail and by destroying companies shorting them.

Dang. That just melted my heart. Seriously. Not even joking.

Paying it forward by helping those in need is the greatest gift we can do for others.

Mad respect.

[Jtbny]

Dang. That just melted my heart. Seriously. Not even joking.

Paying it forward by helping those in need is the greatest gift we can do for others.

Mad respect.

This is actually a good write up -

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/27/inves...ock/index.html

Love Chamath and Musk -

""Instead of having 'idea dinners' or quiet whispered conversations amongst hedge funds in the Hamptons, these kids have the courage to do it transparently in a forum," he said. "What it proves is this retail [investor] phenomenon is here to stay."

[Mark1T]

To clarify my earlier post, I also do not believe it is a pump and dump scheme. It is an organized group (retail investors) doing the same as the hedge funds but on the other end buying while the hedge funds short. It is about time these huge funds are taught a lesson.

On the other hand, there still is a bubble cause the prices are inflated and don’t reflect value, so that bubble will bust at some point and that is where damage to some will probably happen.

But, nothing wrong with people making money on the ride with GameStop. Just think about the end game and if and when you want to exit.

[Plateauplower]

No it isnt. This narrative is totally false.

Its a short squeeze we saw miles away. Some scum bag hedge fund named Miltin Capital shorts companies into bankruptcy. They decided to short GME using more shares than the float making more shares tradable than available (which should be illegal). Then, they brag about crushing them and retail. It bled into other companies with a large short % - AMC, BBY, BB, EXPR ect. make no mistake though this was a direct shot by a large amount of independent retail investors sticking to Wall Street.

This has been a war on scum bags who make a living fleecing retail and now they are almost bankrupt themselves. Don't listen to the lazy reporting you are seeing. I've been on Wall Street Bets for years.

As for GME they are revamping their business model. Look into who just hit the Board and why people were already high on their survival. It's a 15-20 dollar stock on a regular day but the narrative that this is a pump and dump is false. Its a mirror image of the classic short squeeze on VW years ago. It might turn into a pump and dump but that's not even close to how it started.

Perhaps we have different definitions. I haven’t watched any of it on the news. I realize that they are squeezing the shorts, but eventually people are going to take profits and that can happen quickly. When people are paying $300+ for a $20 stock without setting up parameters, a lot of these people are going to get burned. That’s going to happen. Many will make a lot of money, hedge funds are going to lose a lot of money as are many people buying in on the hype. Go ahead and buy in at a dip for $300 and hold long and see what happens.

I think it’s great that the hedge funds are getting bent over. They do it all the time to everyone manipulating oil futures and other things that affect people outside of the investment world, not to mention making companies fail with massive short positions. That said a when people decide to sell, someone is always go8ng to be holding the bag and taking the L. I’m guessing that the hedge funds have been buying to cover their positions already, it’s not like they wait until they have to settle up...could it go higher sure, but I know I wouldn’t touch it at this point. If anything it might getting to be a good place to short it. I’d buy Tesla now before GME.

[ajdahlheimer]

I didn't jump in on GME but I did on AMC and Express. I did ok But if I was in on GME I'd hold the line just to sqeeze these douche bags even harder out of spite.

A buddy of mine claims he bought 3 GME options early Tuesday morning for $765 each that are now worth ~100k. Serious.

[Mark1T]

Plat, I understand your logic on calling it a pump and dump. I have watched several shows with the pundits on CNBC, Bloomberg and FOX Business and none of them referred to the retailers as a pump and dump. IMO, I believe one of the differences is intent. JT alluded to the intent. In contrast a pump and dump is the manipulation of a stock with the intention of liquidating it for a windfall. According to JT if I am partially right, the overall intent is not to necessarily make money.

[Plateauplower]

Plat, I understand your logic on calling it a pump and dump. I have watched several shows with the pundits on CNBC, Bloomberg and FOX Business and none of them referred to the retailers as a pump and dump. IMO, I believe one of the differences is intent. JT alluded to the intent. In contrast a pump and dump is the manipulation of a stock with the intention of liquidating it for a windfall. According to JT if I am partially right, the overall intent is not to necessarily make money.

I agree for some/many the intent is to stick it to the hedge funds and the whales that take advantage of every retail investor. However, some see it as chance to finally make some real money and are investing money they can’t afford to lose, these are people who barely have two nickels to rub together and are likely not savvy to the big picture of what will happen and how fast it will happen when the selling starts. To me, intent doesn’t matter, you have a large group of people inflating a stock waaaaaaay beyond any reasonable semblance of value (pump). Later when the stock can no longer be inflated, or people start to break and sell off it will be a mad dash to get off those shares before they drop further (dump). I try to avoid emotion when making investment decisions, this is the opposite. Many of these new to investing who want to “be part of something historic” are likely going to find themselves looking really good on paper before it all comes crashing down and they lose most of their “investment” to folks who are a little smarter or better guessers at when to get out. That experience will leave them bitter and they will be less likely to invest in actual sound investments and add to the numbers of people who will never be in a position to have a comfortable retirement by investing in things that will actually generate wealth.

I find it funny that people get so emotional about this $hit. I browsed some of the Reddit thread and there are clearly people who know what they are doing and many who don’t even know how to buy shares but they are going to do it because hive mentality.

[Lou1se]

What's happening on the stockmarket.. explained simply by Meg from Hades

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/st...96683938201600

[Bando]

there still is a bubble cause the prices are inflated and don’t reflect value, so that bubble will bust at some point and that is where damage to some will probably happen.

This is correct. Both the Tech Bubble and Housing loans caused crashes this way. The current stocks involved make up a pretty negligible percentage of the market but anytime there's a concerted effort to manipulate stock prices the SEC takes interest and has broad powers to stop trading, suspend licenses, levy fines etc.

I have a degree in Econ and studied for the series 7 but lost interest after 9/11, just found out I can read the WSJ for free through my work, think I'll I'll take advantage and read up on this tomorrow. It's a really interesting story.