Active market traders

[Payton1221]

Money is made when there is blood in the street.

The controller of our company that retired a few years ago said that he had a professor of his said the same thing nearly 50 years ago. True then; true now!

[_zman]

The controller of our company that retired a few years ago said that he had a professor of his said the same thing nearly 50 years ago. True then; true now!

Any volatility in the market is a chance to make money.

[Jtbny]

May not be a bad idea, John.

The ten-year-yield is spiking. We both know that when this happens the rate will go up as well. And we both know that a spiking rate will pop the bubbles that we've been in for years.

The same happened with my cryptos. They bled and now they are going up. And much like you, I am also thinking of putting some in cash reserve if and when there is another major correction.

Money is made when there is blood in the street. And I know you know.

PS - Not financial advise. lol.

Good stuff. My biggest issue right now is I firmly believe 2021 will be another huge bull run so pulling cash seems like lost opportunity costs right now. Trump was right when he said the pent up energy will drive the economy once everything is some what normal. Problem is February has been the worst month I've had doing what I do and I'm a little shook. I'm seeing so much outside manipulation that its very hard to make plays based on good fundamentals. Even momentum plays are so volatile. I just need to get through March to regroup, adapt to the wild swings, and overcome

Oh, and for some reason Gamestop is running after hours. Can't figure out why?

[NorwichGrad]

Good stuff. My biggest issue right now is I firmly believe 2021 will be another huge bull run so pulling cash seems like lost opportunity costs right now. Trump was right when he said the pent up energy will drive the economy once everything is some what normal. Problem is February has been the worst month I've had doing what I do and I'm a little shook. I'm seeing so much outside manipulation that its very hard to make plays based on good fundamentals. Even momentum plays are so volatile. I just need to get through March to regroup, adapt to the wild swings, and overcome

Oh, and for some reason Gamestop is running after hours. Can't figure out why?

Yes. I also believe the bull run will continue

Just stay close to the exit door, my friend. hahaha.

Oh, in case you have not heard. The federal reserve payment system crashed yesterday. I do not believe in coincidences. It's guaranteed that the dollar will be replaced by a digital world reserve. I just don't know when,

It's a shame that there are very few people (like those who are on this thread) who see the greatest wealth transfer happening in front of our eyes. Many could be taking advantage of the game.

We 'little guys in maintream america' could very well be in the next 1%. And I hope this happens. We could have a huge impact on humanity. I firmly believe with all my heart that many here are good people who would do great things for others if we ever become the next Buffet.

[NorwichGrad]

Just another talking out loud moment.

Last week the Dow dropped 1000 points in two days. It was due to the 10-year yield rising.

We all know rising rates will pop the mega bubble.

Today the dow went up 600 points.

It seems as though the fed implement YIELD CURVE CONTROL, where the yield is now fixed.

What does this mean as investors?

QE to infinity and beyond without fear of bond market raising interest rates and potentially popping more.

Lol.

Bull market baby.

We all know this is not sustainable.

But hey. We also know the greatest bull market will happen so might as well play their game.

We live in interesting times.

[Payton1221]

with apologies to John since this isn't a question about actively trading, but any suggestions for safer havens that aren't stocks? I could ask for investments that aren't big cap stocks, but I would guess that if a bear market hits, it'll probably hit all sectors but with some worse than others. I have admitted to having a large position in bonds to mimic Ray Dalio's All-Weather portfolio, but I'm thinking if the record (near record?) low interest rates don't result in a new paradigm, and hence, make his back-checked mix of investments invalid for this climate.

What do you like for holding long that's not stocks for perhaps some profit but with a bias towards capital preservation?

P.S. I still hold 30% in an S&P 500 index fund.

[Jtbny]

Joel- this bull run is just getting started. Brrrrr

Payton- I think this is a great question. Definatly active trading as this is a bear hedge.

As for the answer - I have no clue Outside of stock/bonds my guesses would be crypto or real estate? My wife and I are looking into duplex/triplex next year or 2 for the same reasons you listed (low rates - not many places to put capital besides the market to profit/preserve unless I enjoy .5% in Ally). I'd be curious of others thoughts.

[NorwichGrad]

with apologies to John since this isn't a question about actively trading, but any suggestions for safer havens that aren't stocks? I could ask for investments that aren't big cap stocks, but I would guess that if a bear market hits, it'll probably hit all sectors but with some worse than others. I have admitted to having a large position in bonds to mimic Ray Dalio's All-Weather portfolio, but I'm thinking if the record (near record?) low interest rates don't result in a new paradigm, and hence, make his back-checked mix of investments invalid for this climate.

What do you like for holding long that's not stocks for perhaps some profit but with a bias towards capital preservation?

P.S. I still hold 30% in an S&P 500 index fund.

Payton. Everybody is different. John has different goals. I have different goals as well.

Me personally, physical silver. Yes, I am playing the crypto game. But whenever I take profit I convert into physical silver. To me silver is the most undervalued (and heavily suppressed) asset in history. I would also add land. Not necessarily home / real estate, but just a piece of land that is farmable.

I am also a fan of Ray Dalio's work.

Joel- this bull run is just getting started. Brrrrr

YES!!!!! For sure. hahaha.. I am staying close to the exit door, however. Because I expect that one day the matrix will let go of the yield curve and everything will pop. This will crash everything and will give reason to implement the next system.

In the meantime, absolutely BRRRRR!

So might as well make fiat.

[_zman]

with apologies to John since this isn't a question about actively trading, but any suggestions for safer havens that aren't stocks? I could ask for investments that aren't big cap stocks, but I would guess that if a bear market hits, it'll probably hit all sectors but with some worse than others. I have admitted to having a large position in bonds to mimic Ray Dalio's All-Weather portfolio, but I'm thinking if the record (near record?) low interest rates don't result in a new paradigm, and hence, make his back-checked mix of investments invalid for this climate.

What do you like for holding long that's not stocks for perhaps some profit but with a bias towards capital preservation?

P.S. I still hold 30% in an S&P 500 index fund.

In the book Money: Master the Game it talks about preserving capital in tax-deferred accounts with an "all-seasons" portfolio, 40% 20-25yr treasuries, 15% 7-10yr treasuries, 30% stocks, 7.5% commodities, 7.5% gold. I haven't taken this approach yet, at least until I'm closer to retirement, seems pretty conservative to me, but it returned 9.72% annually from 1984-2013. Curious how it would stack up in the current market, but I'd have to do a mock portfolio to see.

It discusses what you're asking about preserving capital, cuz this portfolio was down 3.93% in 2008 vs 37% in the S&P. It also discusses loss percentages 30% loss requires a 43% gain to break even, 50% needs 100%, 75% needs 300%. I don't think a lot of investors realize how big of a deal losses really are.

I'd imagine most retail investors are seeing losses like this or if they're somewhat new, they will see them soon.

[Cantplankwell]

with apologies to John since this isn't a question about actively trading, but any suggestions for safer havens that aren't stocks? I could ask for investments that aren't big cap stocks, but I would guess that if a bear market hits, it'll probably hit all sectors but with some worse than others. I have admitted to having a large position in bonds to mimic Ray Dalio's All-Weather portfolio, but I'm thinking if the record (near record?) low interest rates don't result in a new paradigm, and hence, make his back-checked mix of investments invalid for this climate.

What do you like for holding long that's not stocks for perhaps some profit but with a bias towards capital preservation?

P.S. I still hold 30% in an S&P 500 index fund.

Have you looked into directly holding corporate bonds? As opposed to a bond fund (or etf)? They come in all shapes and sizes. And when you think of the largest wealthiest US corporations with cash on their balance sheets they are very low risk.

Return will be low, but predictable. And you only lose if you sell before maturity. (and does it fall under the category of active trading ?).


Problem with a Bond Fund or ETF etc is that the share price will move at the whim of the market regardless of the performance of the individual bonds in them. Last couple of weeks have rocked the two bonds funds that I own, I am holding fast though, as mature (less attractive) bonds are always replaced with newer higher yielding bonds as time goes on.

The other thing which years ago I was hoping to do about now is laddering CDs (we call them GICs here). If shorter term rates begin to climb again you could do that. Its better than nothing. And again very secure.

You and I are at a very risky time in our retirement planning....with the markets in general in uncharted waters...so I dont think there is any shame in holding on to large % of cash for when things go bearish...and they will. Think of that cash and those future investments they will buy as the second rocket booster stage in your portfolio...say in 1-5 years. It will be a smaller boost though.

[Jtbny]

with apologies to John since this isn't a question about actively trading, but any suggestions for safer havens that aren't stocks? I could ask for investments that aren't big cap stocks, but I would guess that if a bear market hits, it'll probably hit all sectors but with some worse than others. I have admitted to having a large position in bonds to mimic Ray Dalio's All-Weather portfolio, but I'm thinking if the record (near record?) low interest rates don't result in a new paradigm, and hence, make his back-checked mix of investments invalid for this climate.

What do you like for holding long that's not stocks for perhaps some profit but with a bias towards capital preservation?

P.S. I still hold 30% in an S&P 500 index fund.

This doesn't fit your criteria of "not stocks" but you could also start buying inverse (bearish) ETF stock as well as a hedge. Something like TQQQ or SPXU or look at something that shorts DOW ect. Many vehicles to hedge. One last thing - if you feel the market is going to turn soon and we are at the top, and you have the ability to buy/sell options, you could sell call option contracts on your current shares. This will give you the ability to collect premium and hold your shares - unless the market doesn't turn. Then you'll be forced to sell your shares at whatever price you chose but still keep the premium thus capping your upside but if you're right you'll have some protection. If you invest in a nontaxable account even better.

https://www.investopedia.com/investi...r-market-etfs/

***If this route is taken by anyone please read how these instruments work. They arent inverse in the sense that if the market drops by 10% you will be up 10%. They are great tools to use if understood.

[Payton1221]

Thanks guys: lots of great posts.

@_Zman, that's the portfolio that I've created (minus the gold and commodities), but it's the historic/near-historic lows of the current bond market that makes me now question the validity of that approach in the next few years. And you're right about losses: If you lose 33% one year year, you have to make 50% the next to get back to even (or, another example, you must double after losing 50%).

@CPW, I never really thought about cash, but that does make sense if I think the market may be over-valued and that bonds have no upside either.

@NorwichGrad, land is an interesting thought. nearly 100% of our assets are in tax deferred accounts, but we could shift nearly all of our new contributions to buying some land since the taxes for undeveloped land is minimal and interest rates are low. Since paying our house off a couple of years ago, we're each contributing 15% of our salaries and getting another 2-3% match from our employers.

[_zman]

Thanks guys: lots of great posts.

@_Zman, that's the portfolio that I've created (minus the gold and commodities), but it's the historic/near-historic lows of the current bond market that makes me now question the validity of that approach in the next few years. And you're right about losses: If you lose 33% one year year, you have to make 50% the next to get back to even (or, another example, you must double after losing 50%).

@CPW, I never really thought about cash, but that does make sense if I think the market may be over-valued and that bonds have no upside either.

@NorwichGrad, land is an interesting thought. nearly 100% of our assets are in tax deferred accounts, but we could shift nearly all of our new contributions to buying some land since the taxes for undeveloped land is minimal and interest rates are low. Since paying our house off a couple of years ago, we're each contributing 15% of our salaries and getting another 2-3% match from our employers.

The time-horizon of that all-seasons approach kind of worries me. Like I said, I'd have to compare it to the recent market, which also might not be fair to do. I can see how it would work, and it should preserve capital, but I'm still in the growth timeframe and will be for at least a decade.

Something also to note is what stocks/indexes you intent to hold in that 30%, because some small caps over the long run are returning more than the S&P. And they have returned A LOT more (perhaps double) since I started investing in one in 01/2017. But then they're a bit more volatile as well. The dips are larger, but even in 2020, it bounced back more than the S&P. And I never have sold any or rebalanced. Just hold for decades.

Then the book starts going into annuities, which is another way to preserve and basically guarantee income.

[Mark1T]

Careful with Fubo, boys. Might be a decent short-term play and I know it’s up about 240% since going public, it it is operating at a loss. Some pros are shorting.

Lots of companies are operating at a loss I know, but different circumstances. Just an opinion.

[Jtbny]

Careful with Fubo, boys. Might be a decent short-term play and I know it’s up about 240% since going public, it it is operating at a loss. Some pros are shorting.

Lots of companies are operating at a loss I know, but different circumstances. Just an opinion.

You're not wrong. The sports betting side of the business is intriguing if they can make it work. But volatility is crazy on this.

[Mark1T]

You're not wrong. The sports betting side of the business is intriguing if they can make it work. But volatility is crazy on this.

Agreed

[Jtbny]

Agreed

And I'm already messing with two volatile stocks - Palantir and CCIV which is doing a reverse merger with Lucid Motors. Thats about all my nerves can take

[Mark1T]

And I'm already messing with two volatile stocks - Palantir and CCIV which is doing a reverse merger with Lucid Motors. Thats about all my nerves can take

I love Lucid. Gorgeous designs and performance.

[Jtbny]

I love Lucid. Gorgeous designs and performance.

Me too! And as an option trader selling calls in this IV is far too profitable. And since I'm OK holding the stock its a bonus BUT EV is taking a hit this week. Once they get closer to the merger date this thing should pop again but now it looks like its going to float in the 22-30 range.

[Jtbny]

Well last week was a cluster fuk for me. Took it pretty hard on the chin with SPACs getting hammered and EV getting smacked around. Was able to sell some covered calls this AM to at least have some insurance but I'm in a holding pattern w/ my positions until 3/19. I have a ton of expiring option contracts then and will likely get assigned a boat load of shares.


Hope my fellow investors have a good week

[Payton1221]

Hope my fellow investors have a good week

I need to make time to make a few moves. But I really don't like all of the volatility. It reminds me too much of 2000

[NorwichGrad]

It looks like Gary Gensler will be confirmed by the senate as head of SEC.

Gensler is pro-crypto. He was a professor at MIT where he taught the intersection of technology and finance.

Behind the scene there appears to be a lot of shifting within the banking industry throughout the world as far as moving towards digital currencies.

It will not be bitcoin. Bitcoin has a place. And I want bitcoiners to succeed and make money. If bitcoin falls, the rest of the alt coins will follow. But the next adoption will not be BTC but something else from what I can see.

At any rate, I have always wanted to buy a kilo of silver. So I decided to take profit from ethereum and bought me a 1-kilo silver bar.

With the passing of the 1.9 trillion stimulus, I suspect that new records will continue to be set on NYSE.

Hope you guys are making money for your families. And remember to pay it forward.

[Jtbny]

It looks like Gary Gensler will be confirmed by the senate as head of SEC.

Gensler is pro-crypto. He was a professor at MIT where he taught the intersection of technology and finance.

Behind the scene there appears to be a lot of shifting within the banking industry throughout the world as far as moving towards digital currencies.

It will not be bitcoin. Bitcoin has a place. And I want bitcoiners to succeed and make money. If bitcoin falls, the rest of the alt coins will follow. But the next adoption will not be BTC but something else from what I can see.

At any rate, I have always wanted to buy a kilo of silver. So I decided to take profit from ethereum and bought me a 1-kilo silver bar.

With the passing of the 1.9 trillion stimulus, I suspect that new records will continue to be set on NYSE.

Hope you guys are making money for your families. And remember to pay it forward.

Been a rough 2 weeks for me. Recovering some now.

Need to see a pic of this silver when it arrives Preferably next to your AR.

[NorwichGrad]

Been a rough 2 weeks for me. Recovering some now.

Need to see a pic of this silver when it arrives Preferably next to your AR.

LMAO! You bet. Supposed to arrive early next week. hahaha.

So far my crypto investment to silver profit conversion percentage is 75%.

In other words, the 75% profit I have realized from cryptos went towards buying physical silver. Once the ratio is 100%, I can feel more comfortable using the initial investments as 'play money' and I would feel better playing the real day trading game you do. At the moment I don't have the stomach for it. hahaha. So I must slowly build confidence.


I am confident you will recover from the rough two weeks. The 1.9 trillion will help the stocks for sure.

[induced_drag]

Been taking a step back from getting too excited about BTC. Dropped after hitting all time high of 58 down to low 40's.


Well...it has clawed it's way back up and passing all time highs again. If it holds above 58 people are predicting 75 is the next level to breach.

I had to check out emotional. Too many highs and lows. Watching...hoping.

Just bought a 2nd lambo this week too (not with crypto). But dont feel nearly as bad about it with BTC running like this. Of course it could all evaporate too.

[Plateauplower]

Been taking a step back from getting too excited about BTC. Dropped after hitting all time high of 58 down to low 40's.


Well...it has clawed it's way back up and passing all time highs again. If it holds above 58 people are predicting 75 is the next level to breach.

I had to check out emotional. Too many highs and lows. Watching...hoping.

Just bought a 2nd lambo this week too (not with crypto). But dont feel nearly as bad about it with BTC running like this. Of course it could all evaporate too.

Why would you buy two labos though (other than you can)? I’d mix it up and get another type of toy, probably completely different just to have “options”. I was just talking to my neighbor the other day checking out his new $91,000 pickup truck lol. Lifted dodge diesel, leather, automatic steps come down when the door opens, 6.7 Cummins sitting on 38” tires. I like cars, trucks, boats, and motorcycles but just can’t justify dropping that kind of cash even though I could “afford it”. I guess I’m just kinda cheap

[induced_drag]

Why would you buy two labos though (other than you can)? I’d mix it up and get another type of toy, probably completely different just to have “options”. I was just talking to my neighbor the other day checking out his new $91,000 pickup truck lol. Lifted dodge diesel, leather, automatic steps come down when the door opens, 6.7 Cummins sitting on 38” tires. I like cars, trucks, boats, and motorcycles but just can’t justify dropping that kind of cash even though I could “afford it”. I guess I’m just kinda cheap

Yea....I know. I didnt mean to have it work out this way....just kinda did. I "planned" on moving on, selling my car and buying a Huracan. (New model lambo).

Well, the "perfect" car (for me that is) came available and I wanted to move on it since it is unlikely I would ever see another. It is a supercharged car that the guy put about 80k of mods into, on top of a 280k sticker (very tastefully done). Approx 860hp 2.3 0-60 9.9 1/4 mile car. Custom paint option from Lambo which is a $14000 paint job alone.

I have been trying to buy the car for 3 weeks but the owner was having reservations about letting it go (long story). Sealed the deal Monday and waiting on it to ship from Florida.

I picked up my car from the dealer I had it consigned at. "My" guy that was there left, and I dont like who it running it now. So I will just sell on my own. So for the short term, I will have 2. Dont plan on keeping both, but letting go of the convertible will be tough. But I think when I get the new car, it will make it a little easier

[Plateauplower]

Blue one is WAY cooler looking imo. I don’t like yellow, and feel like a convertible is kinda silly for a super car. Not because the roof is going to protect you, but aerodynamics have to be way better with a hardtop. I’d imagine it’s a pretty small market to sell. A guy I work with just bought a 63 vette (split window) and had it shipped from FL to Chicago. It’s not numbers matching but pretty fuking cool. Like that blue one though, that is like classic lambo looking to me, pretty sure I had a hot wheels car that looked similar. Likely as close as I’ll ever get

[induced_drag]

Blue one is WAY cooler looking imo. I don’t like yellow, and feel like a convertible is kinda silly for a super car. Not because the roof is going to protect you, but aerodynamics have to be way better with a hardtop. I’d imagine it’s a pretty small market to sell. A guy I work with just bought a 63 vette (split window) and had it shipped from FL to Chicago. It’s not numbers matching but pretty fuking cool. Like that blue one though, that is like classic lambo looking to me, pretty sure I had a hot wheels car that looked similar. Likely as close as I’ll ever get

The convertible is SO much fun. The older lambo V10 had an even firing order which made them sound like no other. They sound like an F1 car. I wanted the new Huracan though. Dont really know why. It became more a question of "why not?" My wife encouraged me to do it. So that made the decision pretty easy.

Dont get me wrong... I get that it is a little silly. "Stuff" is not all that important to me but I do enjoy some cool things. I dont see myself going back to flying anytime soon. Buying a car (or two), even an expensive one is a lot cheaper than buying and owning a helicopter. I have just resolved that this is not the time in my life to go back flying. And I am enjoying the car stuff almost as much, especially the time with my son.

But I am not a guy impressed with stuff just for the cost. I have a Kia suv that I love just as much and my 16 year old truck which I see no need to replace. Post accident, I lived very conservatively. I went 10 years without buying a car. Now in the last 3 years I have bought 7 .

In the end, cars have become what made this year's memories with COVID. My son and I make car meets almost every weekend (when there is no soccer). Were it not for cars, life would have been pretty boring. He is 14 so I only have him for so much longer. It is something really cool to share with him. He gets his permit next year and I am excited to toss him the keys (srs). Life is short...and realizing it more every day.

[Mark1T]

Well last week was a cluster fuk for me. Took it pretty hard on the chin with SPACs getting hammered and EV getting smacked around. Was able to sell some covered calls this AM to at least have some insurance but I'm in a holding pattern w/ my positions until 3/19. I have a ton of expiring option contracts then and will likely get assigned a boat load of shares.

Hope my fellow investors have a good week

The past couple of weeks I have tried to educate myself more on SPACs. They sound cool, but not sure I like them much and they are way overhyped. I receive reports from the SEC daily and this one came in this morning.

The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy (OIEA) cautions investors not to make investment decisions related to SPACs based solely on celebrity involvement.

Celebrities, from movie stars to professional athletes, can be found on TV, radio, and social media endorsing a wide variety of products and services. Sometimes they are even involved in investment opportunities such as special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, as sponsors or investors. Those celebrities may even be well-known professional investors.

However, celebrity involvement in a SPAC does not mean that the investment in a particular SPAC or SPACs generally is appropriate for all investors. Celebrities, like anyone else, can be lured into participating in a risky investment or may be better able to sustain the risk of loss. It is never a good idea to invest in a SPAC just because someone famous sponsors or invests in it or says it is a good investment.

SPACs have become a popular vehicle for transitioning a private company to a publicly traded one. A SPAC is a blank check company with no operations that offers securities for cash through an initial public offering (IPO). SPACs then have a specified period of time—typically two years—to identify and merge with a private operating company. This business combination is often used as an alternative means of taking the acquired company public, rather than through a traditional IPO.

Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). To learn more about SPACs and what to consider before investing in a SPAC, see our Investor Bulletin about what you need to know.
However, SPAC transactions differ from traditional IPOs and have distinct risks associated with them. For example, sponsors may have conflicts of interest so their economic interests in the SPAC may differ from shareholders. Investors should carefully consider these risks. In addition, while SPACs often are structured similarly, each SPAC may have its own unique features, and it is important for investors to understand the specific features of any SPAC under consideration.

Differing economic interests. SPAC sponsors generally acquire equity in the SPAC at more favorable terms than investors in the IPO or subsequent investors on the open market. As a result, the sponsors will benefit more than investors from the SPAC’s completion of a business combination and may have an incentive to complete a transaction on terms that may be less favorable to you. To learn more, see our Investor Bulletin.
Even if a celebrity is involved in a SPAC, investing in one may not be a good idea for you. Before investing, always do your research, including these three steps:

Check out the background, including registration or license status, of anyone recommending a SPAC, using the search tool on Investor.gov;
Learn about the SPAC sponsors’ backgrounds, experience, and financial incentives, how the SPAC is structured, the securities that are being offered, the risks associated with an investment in the SPAC, plans for a business combination, and other shareholder rights by carefully reading any prospectus which may be available through the SEC’s EDGAR database; and
Consider the investment’s potential costs, risks, and benefits in light of your own investment goals, risk tolerance, investment horizon, net worth, existing investments and assets, debt, and tax considerations.
Never invest in a SPAC based solely on a celebrity’s involvement or based solely on other information you receive through social media, investment newsletters, online advertisements, email, investment research websites, internet chat rooms, direct mail, newspapers, magazines, television, or radio.