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  1. #31
    ~~MsFit~~ Lou1se's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by steffo99 View Post
    Long term I see it as more risky to stay out rather than participate a bit. I'm not a programmer or technical enough to on my own go deep into it but follow key news and channels a little everyday. It is a whole new future technology basically being built for many fields, not just a few silly coins as has long been portrayed. The white paper for bitcoin seems part of what gives it value - apparently einstein level and infrastructure to build on which many tech people even have a hard time grasping.

    There are obviously many facets to it, but staying out of it at this point is to me like one would chose to stay out of personal computers in the 90's. Some of the largest traditional institutions are heavily into it at this point, one picking up a few hundred millions worth every few days.

    The thing is that thousands of the most brilliant minds on the planet are working tirelessly on this all over the world and you have to wonder what the value of that is or can be.

    I'm just into a handful ones, but yeah short term it is very volatile and risky. On the other hand, volatility is kind of the lifeblood of trading and what got me interested in the first place. But no longer daytrading what I hold is Bitcoin, south korea's largest project (ICX, with state infrastructure contracts), a chineese project with one of the windows creators attempting a sort of new operating system for the internet, a small Danish project with former Märsk officers attempting a better system for tracking/assigning content in shipping containers.


    I recommend those with the slighest interest to watch this interview Raoul Pal has with Dan Tapiero for a good perspective coming from traditional finance guys and looking at/valuing/understanding this better.

    I remember my boy was into this crypto bitcoin thing a couple of years ago, I don't know..may
    still be. That boy never listens to his mother lol And poor thing, he tried his best to explain
    it to me. WOOSH ! That stuff went way over my head and alarm bells were going off,
    so I interrupted him and sternly said - Son! DON'T do it !
    .
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  2. #32
    Getting Toned steffo99's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    Wow thanks for the response and the link. I'll check it out. I've thought about buying fractional into Bitcoin but always chicken out. It's on the low end of its high (if 9k is low ) so maybe I'll start.
    Best to start small I suppose and the most sensible way I believe you guys touched on before with DCA. I didn't do it this way - felt ballsy a year ago close to a sort of low around 3k and took out a loan to grab some more. Of course I'm not supposed to do that, but yolo? Is yolo still a thing or am I getting old? Where am I?


    Originally Posted by Lou1se View Post
    I remember my boy was into this crypto bitcoin thing a couple of years ago, I don't know..may
    still be. That boy never listens to his mother lol And poor thing, he tried his best to explain
    it to me. WOOSH ! That stuff went way over my head and alarm bells were going off,
    so I interrupted him and sternly said - Son! DON'T do it !
    A few years ago? He could have bought his dear mother a mansion to retire in by now..or a kangaroo farm or whatever you guys dream of down under.



    Interesting news today...more of these old timers and traditional finance piling in.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...of-gold-in-70s
    Last edited by steffo99; 05-07-2020 at 01:18 PM.
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  3. #33
    ~~MsFit~~ Lou1se's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by steffo99 View Post
    A few years ago? He could have bought his dear mother a mansion to retire in by now..or a kangaroo farm or whatever you guys dream of down under.
    Really?

    This Sunday is Mother's Day so I shall be speaking to him.

    "Oi! Where's my MANSION ??"
    .
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  4. #34
    Getting Toned steffo99's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Lou1se View Post
    Really?

    This Sunday is Mother's Day so I shall be speaking to him.

    "Oi! Where's my MANSION ??"
    Had he worked June, 2012 in a summer job and by July spend his first check of $1,000 dollars on BTC (and by some miracle forgot about it, or never sold) it would be $1,427,397 today.
    https://dqydj.com/bitcoin-return-cal...tion-adjusted/


    Back in 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz, aka ‘Bitcoin Pizza Guy’, bought two Papa John’s pizzas (worth $30) for 10,000 BTC. At the time, that seemed like a bargain, given Bitcoin’s low value. Present value of that pizza is $99,000,000. Not sure if that guy has killed himself yet or if he is alive and well.
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  5. #35
    Registered User Payton1221's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Payton1221 View Post
    I'm not an active trader, but I've accumulated some seed money to invest since paying the house off a couple years ago, . . . I want to invest in stocks that I think will grow for a few years.
    A wee brag, if I may, but my wife wants to buy a "4-seasons room" to add to our house. We met with a salesman yesterday, and we're going forward with it. I decided to put a big chunk down on it, but I had to sell some stock to do so. That account only had five holdings: Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, and Five Below. My cost basis of Amazon was ~$5,300 with my first purchase 2.5 years ago for under $1,000/share. It was valued at nearly $12,000 today when I sold all but one share

    On another note, when I bought a bunch of stock on Jan 22, I actively sought out stocks that were somewhat recession proof. The market had been soaring and I actually expected things to cool down if not drop in the near future. As such, I bought Waste Management (WM) based on a recommendation that it would do well in a down economy because you will always need trash removal. I bought eight different stocks that day (I still hold every one), but WM has been my WORST performer and is down 16% since then
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  6. #36
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Payton1221 View Post
    A wee brag, if I may, but my wife wants to buy a "4-seasons room" to add to our house. We met with a salesman yesterday, and we're going forward with it. I decided to put a big chunk down on it, but I had to sell some stock to do so. That account only had five holdings: Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, and Five Below. My cost basis of Amazon was ~$5,300 with my first purchase 2.5 years ago for under $1,000/share. It was valued at nearly $12,000 today when I sold all but one share

    On another note, when I bought a bunch of stock on Jan 22, I actively sought out stocks that were somewhat recession proof. The market had been soaring and I actually expected things to cool down if not drop in the near future. As such, I bought Waste Management (WM) based on a recommendation that it would do well in a down economy because you will always need trash removal. I bought eight different stocks that day (I still hold every one), but WM has been my WORST performer and is down 16% since then
    Begs the question - whats the next Amazon

    I was playing Tesla stocks and recently bought back in at $360 and sold at $550 ( way too soon it seems ). Then, I had call options when Elon decided to tweet about the price of Tesla shares and I lost a crap ton. I still think Tesla is going to run right through the $1000 a share price but I'm so butt hurt I refuse to buy in until it drops to $420
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  7. #37
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    My current stock holdings are:

    Ally Financial X100
    AMD X100
    Apple X10
    KO X10

    Rest in cash or options. AMD and ALLY are two stocks I'm playing whats called "the wheel" in options play.

    The Wheel:
    I sell an option contract called a put where I agree to buy 100 shares of a stock at a price I choose. Lets say XYZ is trading at $10 a share. I could buy 100 shares outright for $10 or sell a put contract for $9 a share. I choose how long I want to be obligated (expiration date). For selling this contract I collect a premium. The longer the expiration the more premium. Lets say the premium for 14 days out is $50. That means if I'm assigned the 100 shares at $9 a share I really own them for $8.5. If the stock stays above $9 I keep the profit is the premium I collected and I do it again. I'll collect premium until eventually I get assigned and then...

    Now that I own those 100 shares of XYZ for $8.50 I then sell a call contract for a price (strike) above the $8.5 lets say $11. I again collect premium for that contract, lets say $50, and then I wait. If XYZ goes above $11 on expiration day my 100 shares get called away at $11 per share. My profit it $11-$8.50 x 100 + the premium I collected. I win on both sides. If XYZ finishes below $11 I keep the premium and do it again until the shares eventually get called away and then start over with puts.

    I take all the premiums I collect and dump them in a chosen stock (in my case Apple) or withdraw them for hookers and coke.

    Hope this helps anyone looking at different strategies.
    Last edited by Jtbny; 05-08-2020 at 11:51 AM.
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  8. #38
    Registered User Plateauplower's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    My current stock holdings are:

    Ally Financial X100
    AMD X100
    Apple X10
    KO X10

    Rest in cash or options. AMD and ALLY are two stocks I'm playing whats called "the wheel" in options play.

    The Wheel:
    I sell an option contract called a put where I agree to buy 100 shares of a stock at a price I choose. Lets say XYZ is trading at $10 a share. I could buy 100 shares outright for $10 or sell a put contract for $9 a share. I choose how long I want to be obligated (expiration date). For selling this contract I collect a premium. The longer the expiration the more premium. Lets say the premium for 14 days out is $50. That means if I'm assigned the 100 shares at $9 a share I really own them for $8.5. If the stock stays above $9 I keep the profit is the premium I collected and I do it again. I'll collect premium until eventually I get assigned and then...

    Now that I own those 100 shares of XYZ for $8.50 I then sell a call contract for a price (strike) above the $8.5 lets say $11. I again collect premium for that contract, lets say $50, and then I wait. If XYZ goes above $11 on expiration day my 100 shares get called away at $11 per share. My profit it $11-$8.50 x 100 + the premium I collected. I win on both sides. If XYZ finishes below $11 I keep the premium and do it again until the shares eventually get called away and then start over with puts.

    I take all the premiums I collect and dump them in a chosen stock (in my case Apple) or withdraw them for hookers and coke.

    Hope this helps anyone looking at different strategies.
    That's exactly how my wife's grandpa explained it (puts and some other contract option something or other). Reading it makes it a little easier to understand. Still kind of confusing.
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  9. #39
    Registered User Cantplankwell's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Payton1221 View Post
    A wee brag, if I may, but my wife wants to buy a "4-seasons room" to add to our house. We met with a salesman yesterday, and we're going forward with it. I decided to put a big chunk down on it, but I had to sell some stock to do so. That account only had five holdings: Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, and Five Below. My cost basis of Amazon was ~$5,300 with my first purchase 2.5 years ago for under $1,000/share. It was valued at nearly $12,000 today when I sold all but one share

    On another note, when I bought a bunch of stock on Jan 22, I actively sought out stocks that were somewhat recession proof. The market had been soaring and I actually expected things to cool down if not drop in the near future. As such, I bought Waste Management (WM) based on a recommendation that it would do well in a down economy because you will always need trash removal. I bought eight different stocks that day (I still hold every one), but WM has been my WORST performer and is down 16% since then
    My perspective on WM: They were charging us $1200 a month for emptying our standard size dumpster, and our cardboard bin. There is 18 months left on the contract. I have been looking for ways to cut costs so I called them and without too much trouble I negotiated it down to under $600 and renewed the contract. People were telling us there was no way we could do anything about it. I am not sure I want to be in a business where its that easy. Can you get that kind of a discount with an Ipad?
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  10. #40
    Registered User Payton1221's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    Begs the question - whats the next Amazon
    I still like Amazon for the long haul and have three shares in my wife's rollover that I manage. These were all bought on Jan 22. I'm up 26% with AMZN and 38% with TSLA but down 16% with Waste Management and down 14% with Nike. Overall, I'm up 4.45% since I bought these 3.5 months ago, and the S&P is down 11% over that same timeframe (thank you Elon Musk )

    Last edited by Payton1221; 05-08-2020 at 07:13 PM.
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  11. #41
    Getting Toned steffo99's Avatar
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    Relating to my previous posts....

    Today, just now, the halving event took place, which is something that only happens every 4 years and means it will take twice the computing power to mine the same btc as before (If I understand it correctly). This seems to be thought of as bullish pricewise in the long term (judging by history), but many expect a period of occasional dumps over the coming weeks or months. The reasoning is that a large portion of mining farms/companies will no longer be able to stay profitable once this happens, and they seem to have been hording for some time expecting this and likely to dump that stash over time as they slowly go out of business.

    Just thought I would mention this since it is a major event and someone already mentioned looking to pick some up during dips.
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  12. #42
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by steffo99 View Post
    Relating to my previous posts....

    Today, just now, the halving event took place, which is something that only happens every 4 years and means it will take twice the computing power to mine the same btc as before (If I understand it correctly). This seems to be thought of as bullish pricewise in the long term (judging by history), but many expect a period of occasional dumps over the coming weeks or months. The reasoning is that a large portion of mining farms/companies will no longer be able to stay profitable once this happens, and they seem to have been hording for some time expecting this and likely to dump that stash over time as they slowly go out of business.

    Just thought I would mention this since it is a major event and someone already mentioned looking to pick some up during dips.
    I have been in crypto since 13. I never have bought any. I mined everything I have. I converted everything to bit coin a few years back and am holding long.

    I am going big or going home. I only mined for about 3 months before it became unprofitable. I spent about 6000 on computer parts to build 4 rigs and ran about 800/month in power for 3 months. I would have done better if I just spent the 8000 on bitcoin which at the time was $1000 ish but I am not too far off that number and it was a fun project at the time.

    But I am holding enough bitcoin that it might actually pay off pretty good. I have made the statement that I wont sell until it changes what I do the next day. For me that is well above the 20k bitcoin which I saw a few years back.

    When it nets me 7 figures then I will think about selling. It is possible I may see that point this time around. Not holding my breath though.

    If I could have bought and sold the peaks and valleys, I could have done well...but who the hell knows!

    I am set up on Bittrex to day trade bitcoin and I moved one bitcoin over to my account there just to play with, but I have not had the balls to start trading with it. It is even open as we speak and I watched the big sell off this weekend and did not feel comfortable pulling the trigger to try to sell and re buy....
    Last edited by induced_drag; 05-11-2020 at 01:20 PM.
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  13. #43
    Getting Toned steffo99's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    I have made the statement that I wont sell until it changes what I do the next day.
    Thats the way I chose to look at it as well. Wish I had the foresight to dip my toes into it as early as you did, but I was a bit judgemental and it all seemed a bit too strange.

    If it doesn't work out, or something unexpected happens, it won't affect me much. But the upside and risk/reward ratio is rather large as I see it, also setting my target on 7 figures. I choose for simplicity's sake to think of the potential as the same (or rather more), than the market for gold. So if 3 trillion in gold is avail. to financial markets and perhaps 15-16 mill btc available (accounting for assumed lost bitcoin etc) I have this nice and round number of 200K in mind.

    With this thread I'm also getting the itch to start practicing day-or swingtrading again, but will probably go back to the oanda platform and regular markets for that. It's either battling HFT-ing of wall street or the Whales of crypto. Hoping I can do better in normal markets if increase the time horizon a bit and keep studying. Last time I was dealing in minutes or seconds as a beginner just to put on a lot of trades and practice.

    Well, good night and good luck all.
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  14. #44
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by steffo99 View Post

    With this thread I'm also getting the itch to start practicing day-or swingtrading again,
    Well, good night and good luck all.

    I am toying with it with the volatility that bitcoin has. Thinking about doing a simple stragetery like trading on a 14 day moving avg. On my screen is a chart I configured where the green line is the 2day avg and the red is the 14 day.

    Sell on 14 dipping below line and buy as it breaks it. Using a Relative strength index to double check whether it is over or under bought.

    That is what my research has put together as an idea, but I have not had the guts to jump in doing it. Plus, I have a tendency to get overly into things....and the last thing I need is more time in front of computers.

    This is on one of my monitors right now though.....


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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    I have a tendency to get overly into things....and the last thing I need is more time in front of computers.
    Yup, for sure is one of those black holes you can get sucked into and lost forever (as displayed a bit by my post I suppose). The many aspects and angles is a pain in the ass and what makes it fascinating at the same time.



    Excuse this long post but some still present thoughts on various aspects I had just bubbled to the surface and demanded an outlet:


    Keeping it simple vs doing something unique algos won't easily account for.....

    I think of it as trading against supercomputers run by former nuclear physisists, which I guess in a way it could be. Using just a handful or less indicators is recommended by som greats I listened to, but this put me at break even at best. Maybe that's actually a good start and discovering new tweaks could put one over on the right side. Then again, you hear over again that a certain tactic only works for a time, then you need adjust or change. This is likely how most do it but most also lose money. I guess it boils down to finding an edge, which you hear everywhere but I didn't find or develop one in my short time.


    Stop Losses....

    Thought about extending the time window to longer term to mitigate some of the HFT activity, using wider stops corresponding to the maximum range (or ATR?) seen the past month for my chosen time window..and avoid putting sl's at even numbers where other traders tend to cluster which gets sniffed out. Downside with the wider stop is you need many winning trades to make up for the occasional bigger hit taken.


    TA vs Fundamentals...

    TA works well for some but I have a hard time with it after listening to some older traders, showing big research that none actually or barely work (forgot details.. sorry). Others mean they are just a sales tool to retail traders. In my limited mind it seems to show something that has happened as a result of many thousands of little events/actions - how can that actually predict many similar actions a week from now where conditions are totally different? Having a hard time wrapping my head around things like that and wondering if our brain, evolved to spot patterns isn't playing tricks on us a bit.

    Having a thesis, or mini thesis (+ study fundamentals in a market) of a trade and journaling it so you can go back and evaluate what the thinking was appeals to me. Anton Kreil seem to use this with traders he trains. Was hoping to better learn and understand a particular market/commodity better and sort of specialize, but never got this far. Speaking of Anton (former Goldman sachs guy), he has some good insights and lectures on his channel, but at the end of the day he is also selling something:





    What works for you?....

    Thinking that in the end, key part of making it work could be tinkering and finding a style/methods that matches your personality/strenghts . It doesn't seem to work well copying other people's strategies, likely due to small differences in executing it all and other things. I suppose setting up a bot, and letting it run without interfering would be a way to copy some methods. Previously looked at 3 commas and crypto bot trading but never got around to it. Looks fun.






    Speaking of personalities I watched this documentary a few years back where people new to trading gets a crack at it with training etc and it's interesting to see who makes it or not, and the results are not what most would expect looking at the candidates beforehand:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXno18pOHgo




    Position size.....

    After listening to experienced traders/math guys etc I decided on 1% around there somehere. Thinking about a trade as a coin flip had some interesting results for those testing many flips at various position sizes. After many, many tosses you will eventually get unexpectadly large runs of losses, like 8-10 in a row. At position sizes above a certain size it will be close to impossible to recover as the bigger the drawdown is, it becomes exponentially harder to recover. Saved a graph of this somewhere but too lazy to look for it.

    If I remember correctly, at a certain level it becomes a statitsical certainty (could take a hundred years) of going bust ..think I found it....sorry been awhile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_of_ruin






    Sorry for wall of text - this all just bubbled up. Anyways, will recommend a channel to finish the post.

    Chat with Traders - has a buttload of hour long interviews with different types of experienced traders. Good for downloading as mp3 and listen while you jog or something. There should be something for everyone in here.
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdn...pAkATOiDsPhqcg
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    This past few days I've been day trading BTC (fractional). I read all about the halving event. I watched the price Saturday night just drop a ton and now it's been hovering. Many think it will leg down again before going up so I'll wait to see. I'll park a few thousand just to see what happens.
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    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    So I tired my hand a little last night with some active trading on BTC. I spent about 2 1/2 hours trading. I netted 12% over this time.

    I realized as much as I thought I could multi-task and keep an eye on my trades on one monitor and do my work on others.....I was very distracted.

    I am going to play with a small amount of BTC for a few more rounds and see how consistent I can be returning. IF...IF I feel comfortable, maybe I will get the balls to start playing with larger amounts.

    My goal at the end of every night is to make sure I am always back in BTC. (makes it easy to keep track of progress).

    I cant imagine putting of 2-3 btc on every trade since right now I am only using small fractions...but I guess if it scales....it scales. I am taking it slow for sure.
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  18. #48
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    So I tired my hand a little last night with some active trading on BTC. I spent about 2 1/2 hours trading. I netted 12% over this time.

    I realized as much as I thought I could multi-task and keep an eye on my trades on one monitor and do my work on others.....I was very distracted.

    I am going to play with a small amount of BTC for a few more rounds and see how consistent I can be returning. IF...IF I feel comfortable, maybe I will get the balls to start playing with larger amounts.

    My goal at the end of every night is to make sure I am always back in BTC. (makes it easy to keep track of progress).

    I cant imagine putting of 2-3 btc on every trade since right now I am only using small fractions...but I guess if it scales....it scales. I am taking it slow for sure.
    I did this over the weekend. Bought and sold about 50 times over 2 days. It's distracting
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  19. #49
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    So I tired my hand a little last night with some active trading on BTC. I spent about 2 1/2 hours trading. I netted 12% over this time.
    No, you didn't.
    "I'd rather go down the river with seven studs than with a hundred shytheads"
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  20. #50
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by eomrat View Post
    No, you didn't.
    Hey now. I traded like crazy over the weekend and made $1.21 for my efforts
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  21. #51
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by eomrat View Post
    No, you didn't.
    Um...OK. IF you actally look at the charts, the day had a fairly repeatable pattern. (yesterday....not so much )

    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    Hey now. I traded like crazy over the weekend and made $1.21 for my efforts
    Ha! So I knew better...but I tried trading again "while I worked" yesterday. I got 1/4 of the amount done that I would normally get. Bitcoin was a little more unpredictable. Ended the day down 1.6%

    At the end of the day, I was just looking for a re-entry point so I was back in bitcoin for the eve.


    Way way way too much stress. Learned a good lesson. I am going to let traders trade. I have gained and lost hundreds of thousands of dollars watching bitcoin from the sidelines. No point in me contributing to the losses . Back to my initial strategy.....go big or go home.... Will patiently wait, but totally with the understanding that that day may never come. In that case I wasted about $8000 in 2013. Up until a few years ago, I thought the money was all but lost anyway...
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  22. #52
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    You guys suck with this thread. Now I am trying to learn another thing. I have issues of wanting to learn all kinds of stuff and have always been fascinated with learning new things.

    I decided to examine the past year in bitcoin and see if I could develop a trading strategy by analyzing the data.

    I came up with something that when I applied it to the last 6 months should have tripled my hypothetical gains. I also looked at bad performing periods where it lost significant amounts over time and I broke marginally even or small losses.

    So, This is not a day trading outlook. By my indicators, I might only be trading once or twice a week. sometimes less

    When I have more time, I need to adjust my spreadsheets so I can really analyze when the times are to adjust my position. Historically speaking


    This is a TOTAL experiment and I have never done any active trading. I also dont know jack about any of this. I had to watch a few youtube vids to understand the candle stick charts. But after looking at the data, there is a pattern that jumped out at me fairly quickly.


    For now, I am going to play with the small amount of BTC on have on one exchange. I am going big. 100% bets. Not partial trades, stop losses...etc. Just fly by my pants. I want to see how this goes over the next bit and if it works well, I may play with larger sums.

    The more volatile the market the better my scenario works. In relatively stable times of the past year of BTC, my idea had marginal losses. But in volatile times the indicators I am using seem good.

    I am now going to play with how sharp to cut my predictions. My model shows me I can try to extract more gains, but it would have me trading more often, and much more opportunity to be 'on the wrong side'. I can play more conservatively and it seems like it might be a great way to climb the ladder.
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    <snip>
    I'm not experienced with BTC but am heavily involved with trading stocks/options. When I see BTC I have a hard time understanding what the actual fundamentals are. It looks manipulated by a few whales who can cause it to move in no certain patterns.

    If you can crack some code that would be cool to see. If you like learning new things learn options and take that for a spin.

    I'm still messing w/ BTC day trading it but its very low funds (500-1000) I keep dumping in and pulling out trying to time things. Not working out very well
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  24. #54
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jtbny View Post
    I'm not experienced with BTC but am heavily involved with trading stocks/options. When I see BTC I have a hard time understanding what the actual fundamentals are. It looks manipulated by a few whales who can cause it to move in no certain patterns.

    I'm still messing w/ BTC day trading it but its very low funds (500-1000) I keep dumping in and pulling out trying to time things. Not working out very well
    There are definite external forces at play along with whales and mining outfits.

    I have been 'keeping and eye' on it for the last few years when it hit 20k, but with no other purpose than curiosity.

    I tried what you are doing, and went crazy....and figured out that I am not cut out for it. I had all but given up on doing anything other than holding long. But I opened up my account and started experimenting with looking at the data under different parameters. I saw an immediate pattern. Again....I am not an expert at this. So then I started a spreadsheet with the historical data and stated running various trading strategies and see what my nets were and how it did when the markets were declining, and when they were booming.

    I am basing this on the assumption that it will go up in the next year. If not, my model will probably lose some. Not tank, but not do well. BUT, if it is volatile in the down trend, it might actually do well. So long story short, I have no freaking clue what I am doing

    But my model is telling me to hold with a possible sale coming up.

    Again....you guys suck because I have spent way too much time staring at screens. But looking back at triple the gains in the last 6 months hypothetically, I have to give it a try!
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  25. #55
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    There are definite external forces at play along with whales and mining outfits.

    I have been 'keeping and eye' on it for the last few years when it hit 20k, but with no other purpose than curiosity.

    I tried what you are doing, and went crazy....and figured out that I am not cut out for it. I had all but given up on doing anything other than holding long. But I opened up my account and started experimenting with looking at the data under different parameters. I saw an immediate pattern. Again....I am not an expert at this. So then I started a spreadsheet with the historical data and stated running various trading strategies and see what my nets were and how it did when the markets were declining, and when they were booming.

    I am basing this on the assumption that it will go up in the next year. If not, my model will probably lose some. Not tank, but not do well. BUT, if it is volatile in the down trend, it might actually do well. So long story short, I have no freaking clue what I am doing

    But my model is telling me to hold with a possible sale coming up.

    Again....you guys suck because I have spent way too much time staring at screens. But looking back at triple the gains in the last 6 months hypothetically, I have to give it a try!
    I don't really day trade as much as swing trade. Yesterday (besides messing with BTC) I only made two trades. Today, only 3. There are days that I make 20+ but thats rare. With options I can set them up and let them ride depending on the contract expiration. One main reason I like them besides the fast money they can make.

    I just looked at BTC - up over 9k now. Such a volatile commodity.

    I'll have to look but its seems BTC follows gold? When we have market pull backs like today gold goes up. I wonder if thats historically the case with BTC?
    ------------------------------------------------------------------

    My market action today was +15 shares of Microsoft at 180 added to portfolio. 35 shares of Jet Blue at 7.80 ,and sold a put option on Lowes for a net premium of $350. Even with all the craziness today I was able to mitigate losses to $95 total on over 30K in the account. Good day
    Last edited by Jtbny; 05-13-2020 at 07:06 PM.
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  26. #56
    Registered User boredmeathead's Avatar
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    The correlation of BTC and gold is basically nothing. Crypto in general is not highly correlated with the wider markets. That is a feature and not a bug for sure.

    The best book to understand Crypto IMO is Henry Clews Fifty Years in Wall Street. Basically, stories from the 19th and early 20th century unregulated markets.

    I imagine what moves crypto are syndicates of whales. Form a team and place trades in the opposite direction that you want to go in order to get some momentum going and then start dumping.
    Last edited by boredmeathead; 05-13-2020 at 07:52 PM.
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  27. #57
    Last otter standing Jtbny's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by boredmeathead View Post
    The correlation of BTC and gold is basically nothing. Crypto in general is not highly correlated with the wider markets. That is a feature and not a bug for sure.

    The best book to understand Crypto IMO is Henry Clews Fifty Years in Wall Street. Basically, stories from the 19th and early 20th century unregulated markets.

    I imagine what moves crypto are syndicates of whales. Form a team and place trades in the opposite direction that you want to go in order to get some momentum going and then start dumping.
    Thanks. My only thinking w/ crypto and gold was many use both to hedge inflation.
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  28. #58
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    Sold at 9650. So now in the next day or so I may buy back in if it stays fairly steady. Hopefully, we will see a fairly significant sell of and then rebuy after that.

    Now I can figure out if this actually works......I set aside .1btc to test my strategery with.
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  29. #59
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    Originally Posted by induced_drag View Post
    Now I can figure out if this actually works......I set aside .1btc to test my strategery with.
    I am afraid you have already trapped yourself as you hoped not to.


    The Danish shipping project I invested in 2 years ago ran low on funds as most other projects during this period, but instead of abandoning intitial crypto-investors they went to raise additional funds from traditional investors , who in turn required shares , so they started and finally finished this process and proportionally issue shares to us token holders and initial investors. Not sure if any other projects have done a switch like this, but it sure is better than going to 0. Seen so many other projects just close their doors and leave investors hanging.

    Before this process was announced and at the point where most co-investors surrendered, I decided to gamble a bit and scooped up their tokens bit by bit on a small exchange for between 2 and 5 % of initial ICO price so I managed to accumulate alot for my smaller budget. Yesterday I got word that all these tokens will get me a 1.158% share in the new entity. Hope this works out ok for me, as the company is already running tests with 3 terminals for 2 different products they created. I will just sit on this and be patient.
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  30. #60
    Powerlifting in disguise induced_drag's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by steffo99 View Post
    I am afraid you have already trapped yourself as you hoped not to.


    The Danish shipping project I invested in 2 years ago ran low on funds as most other projects during this period, but instead of abandoning intitial crypto-investors they went to raise additional funds from traditional investors , who in turn required shares , so they started and finally finished this process and proportionally issue shares to us token holders and initial investors. Not sure if any other projects have done a switch like this, but it sure is better than going to 0. Seen so many other projects just close their doors and leave investors hanging.

    Before this process was announced and at the point where most co-investors surrendered, I decided to gamble a bit and scooped up their tokens bit by bit on a small exchange for between 2 and 5 % of initial ICO price so I managed to accumulate alot for my smaller budget. Yesterday I got word that all these tokens will get me a 1.158% share in the new entity. Hope this works out ok for me, as the company is already running tests with 3 terminals for 2 different products they created. I will just sit on this and be patient.
    Interesting to watch my call play out. Hey with only one call so far, I had a 50% chance of being right. Looks like I sold at right time....now the question will be if it sees a large sell off or stabilizes and finds support and starts going back up. Too early by my predictions to tell that, but this if fun to watch play out. Probably not 'fun' if I were risking large sums, but have to learn somewhere!
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