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  1. #2911
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Just think how our expectations have changed

    We're at an under reported 90,332 covid deaths in the US in like two months time and acting like that number is too low to really care about...a couple months ago we were arguing about whether there would be 6,500 by September
    Weren't you saying we would have millions. Yes...expectations have certainly changed.
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    Originally Posted by TaeBoNinja View Post
    Weren't you saying we would have millions. Yes...expectations have certainly changed.
    Nope.

    Repeating the same lie doesn't make it anything different.

    I did take chalup up on his ban bet regarding 6,500 by September though. What do you think? We going to hit 6,500 before September?
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  3. #2913
    Registered User HtotheOV's Avatar
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    I now know 4 people who recovered and no one in their households got the virus

    not sure how but it’s interesting
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    Originally Posted by TaeBoNinja View Post
    Weren't you saying we would have millions. Yes...expectations have certainly changed.
    In my county if someone dies of an overdose and they have Corona.. It's counted as a Corona death.
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    Originally Posted by HtotheOV View Post
    I now know 4 people who recovered and no one in their households got the virus

    not sure how but it’s interesting
    I’ve said it before here but yeah I also saw the same thing happen. Tenants that live on the back of my moms house. 1 of 5 got sick with the virus. All others seem fine. The guy who got sick had diabetes is in his 50s, out of the hospital relaxing now hmm
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  6. #2916
    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TaeBoNinja View Post
    Weren't you saying we would have millions. Yes...expectations have certainly changed.

    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Nope.

    Repeating the same lie doesn't make it anything different.

    I did take chalup up on his ban bet regarding 6,500 by September though. What do you think? We going to hit 6,500 before September?

    Gonna go ahead and stop you there bud. Here's some of your math from earlier in this very thread

    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    I'm not the one trying to take that number and apply it to the whole country, I am responding to people who are doing that and explaining why it doesn't mean what they think it means.

    Imagine if there was a bit of truth to the santa clara numbers where 1.5% of people tested (by a non-FDA approved test that shows false positives to other different viruses) positive to antibodies? Okay, imagine if 1.5% of people were positive?

    But, let's just play pretend and say NY has 25% immunity. That would mean NY, who is way ahead of the rest of the nation on the timeline, is 1/3 of the way to their herd immunity target. If their CFR held steady from current till they hit that threshold, that would mean NY deaths tripling from 17k to 51k. NY alone. Now, take that ratio of deaths/population and apply it to other areas as they get into the meat of their curve on a time delay from NY.
    Went ahead and finished this math up for you. This means 0.26221079691517% of NY would die (to hit your 51k estimate, btw it is now at 22,478 and the deaths/day are steadily slowing from 790 on April 8th to 141 yesterday). If you extrapolate this imaginary number to the rest of the country, you get 839,074. That's pretty damn close to a million.

    Here's your 'conservative' estimate


    Your number is likely not correct. But, let's play the "what if" game.

    Say the effective mortality rate is 0.25%. And say we take the low end herd immunity number of 60% of the population (keeping in mind the more contagious it is, the more people we don't know about that already have it...the higher that % goes...easily to 80% or more). But anyway, US population 324 million * 60% * 0.25% * = 486,000. Do you disagree with that equation or its relevance?
    [quote]

    I've seen you sensationalize it much more than your tame new york 'estimate' more times than I care to count. So yes, you are a sensationalist feeding into the panic. Congrats. Btw, were sitting comfortably at 89,754 right, now, not even close to 839,074. Gonna be a long decade at this rate if were gonna hit 839,074 anytime soon.

    If you were talking about just the city of NY (I gave you the benefit of the doubt number wise), your calling for over 1.8million.
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  7. #2917
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Gonna go ahead and stop you there bud. Here's some of your math from earlier in this very thread



    Went ahead and finished this math up for you. This means 0.26221079691517% of NY would die (to hit your 51k estimate, btw it is now at 22,478 and the deaths/day are steadily slowing from 790 on April 8th to 141 yesterday). If you extrapolate this imaginary number to the rest of the country, you get 839,074. That's pretty damn close to a million.

    Here's your 'conservative' estimate


    I've seen you sensationalize it much more than your tame new york 'estimate' more times than I care to count. So yes, you are a sensationalist feeding into the panic. Congrats. Btw, were sitting comfortably at 89,754 right, now, not even close to 839,074. Gonna be a long decade at this rate if were gonna hit 839,074 anytime soon.

    If you were talking about just the city of NY (I gave you the benefit of the doubt number wise), your calling for over 1.8million.
    Thank you for proving me right.

    "Imagine if there were a bit of truth". Yup. Just imagine if there were a bit of truth. Sure sounds like calling for to me.

    dumbass

    PS: You realize it's only been like two months and we're literally adding 1-2k deaths a day during 'summer' months...right?

    dumbass
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  8. #2918
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    No spike in coronavirus in places reopening, U.S. health secretary says


    https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...says/24335876/
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  9. #2919
    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Thank you for proving me right.

    "Imagine if there were a bit of truth". Yup. Just imagine if there were a bit of truth. Sure sounds like calling for to me.

    dumbass

    PS: You realize it's only been like two months and we're literally adding 1-2k deaths a day during 'summer' months...right?

    dumbass
    Your post implied you think NYS doesn't have 25% immunity (unless 'let's just play pretend ' means something different to you) meaning your estimate of 839,074 is aconservative, low number.

    And yeah, we had ~1200 yesterday. In order to hit 1 million we'd need to do that for the next 758 days. Good luck with us hitting your crazy exponential numbers, especially considering the virus has already run through a bunch of nursing homes (the average death age is actually above the life expectancy).

    The imhe model predicts 147,000 by August 1st, which is 77 days away. You'll notice that 147,000 - 90,000 = 57,000 over the next 11 weeks (also known as 77 days) roughly. Giving us an estimate of 740/day. At that rate we'll be in pandemic mode for 1,229.7 days to hit your low estimate. Better go buy some toilet paper

    This is not a scary thing for 99.8% of the population.

    AGE
    DEATH RATE
    all cases
    80+ years old
    14.8%
    70-79 years old
    8.0%
    60-69 years old
    3.6%
    50-59 years old
    1.3%
    40-49 years old
    0.4%
    30-39 years old
    0.2%
    20-29 years old
    0.2%
    10-19 years old
    0.2%
    0-9 years old
    no fatalities
    Last edited by soaponarope1; 05-17-2020 at 03:07 PM.
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  10. #2920
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    ^Thats not how modeling works, especially your extrapolation from NYC #s. You have to account for other things in other areas. Dubuque, IA doesn't have the same demographics and population density as NYC, so you factor that in. In addition, that's if....IF those herd immunity numbers are even correct. You're stretching his post here to the most extreme caricature of what it actually is.

    I wonder how the flucels would have reacted if everything was known upfront instead of Monday morning QBing here. "OK America, we're gonna have 150k deaths, don't worry though our plan is going with the herd immunity-go shop and eat and bar hop NAO!" Lol. Half of you guys would be flipping the fuk out about this in the other direction.

    As it is now, we're looking at a situation twice as bad as a hard flu season. With social distancing. I'd say the overreacting was well called for. By the way, we're not out of the woods yet, anyone who scoffed at 5k deaths and or 50k deaths happening here, calling "hurr flu!" should have their **** tossed.
    Last edited by Johnez; 05-17-2020 at 03:25 PM.
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  11. #2921
    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    ^Thays not how modeling works. You have to account for other things in other areas. Dubuque, IA doesn't have the same demographics and population density as NYC, so you factor that in. In addition, that's if....IF those numbers are even correct. You're stretching his post here to the most extreme caricature of what it actually is.
    I'm not if you've been seeing Farley's posts in these threads.

    Originally Posted by ymer View Post
    So that menas that the absolute worst possible outcome is 1 per 1000 dies from coronavirus, most of them being previously ill, obese or simply very old and unhealthy.

    Thanks for proving this whole thing has seriously been blown out of proportion.

    End the quarantine now!
    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Incorrect. Deaths in New York have not stopped.

    Also, it's already about 1 in 700 in NYC. And deaths in NYC have not stopped, either.
    He isn't responding to a post about just NYC. He's extrapolating NYC numbers to the state, and many times to the US, not me. This was April 19th, and at 1/700 in the US we're talking about 457,143 deaths. Notice he said deaths 'have not stopped' at this number as well, implying he believes they will be higher and extrapolated to the US.

    FWIW, NYC is at 15,786 nearly a month later. Deaths are slowing drastically, and we're still above 1/500.

    New York state (which he's talking about) is still at 1/859. Dude is unhinged and needs to get a grip.
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    Registered User Johnez's Avatar
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    Gotta give credit for pulling posts to back your point, but I don't see anywhere where he's saying there's going to be millions dead. Are you also going after people who laughed at 5k?
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    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    Gotta give credit for pulling posts to back your point, but I don't see anywhere where he's saying there's going to be millions dead. Are you also going after people who laughed at 5k?
    He did it a lot in another thread (this one is actually pretty tame for Farley posts). Kept insisting that the CFR would be above 3.4%, exponential case growths, millions dead. I actually did the number based on one of his sensationalist posts before and it came out to 200million + dead (srs).

    FWIW, Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)

    Normally I wouldn't spend the energy to dig up posts by a moron, but this dude has been trying to stoke panic for months and frankly its tiring.
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    Originally Posted by havoc00 View Post
    No spike in coronavirus in places reopening, U.S. health secretary says


    https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...says/24335876/
    Its too soon


    Besides there was a report that Georgia has only 6% of people out actually shopping. Even though the economy is wide open
    Everyone else is still hunkered down.
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    He did it a lot in another thread (this one is actually pretty tame for Farley posts). Kept insisting that the CFR would be above 3.4%, exponential case growths, millions dead. I actually did the number based on one of his sensationalist posts before and it came out to 200million + dead (srs).

    FWIW, Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)

    Normally I wouldn't spend the energy to dig up posts by a moron, but this dude has been trying to stoke panic for months and frankly its tiring.
    Another easily found example of him being full of ****, check this post out. Gotta go to it, can't quote things already in quotes.

    Originally Posted by TaeBoNinja View Post
    ...
    I got a bunch of crap from him in a previous covid stickly thread when I said that the CFR would settle to .7% or below, now he's actually posting it as if it fits his panic agenda

    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    So, "why" should governments let off the closure bandwagon now?

    We'll start with a refresher from like 4 weeks ago

    https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...post1602613351

    ....

    *While it is far more dangerous and deadly than seasonal flu, it is far less dangerous and deadly than the initial out-of-China 3.4% CFR we were worried about (let's call seasonal flue 0.1% and covid-19 0.6-0.8%)
    More people who remember his retarded claims

    Originally Posted by TaeBoNinja View Post
    He keeps changing up his views. He's against opening up, while also being for opening up. He's talked about millions dead, but now says she didn't and we should focus instead on 2k/day. He asks for proof and sources, and when offered....he moves the goalposts yet again.

    Doomers gonna doom
    Here is he projecting no chance we don't have 200k+ before 'next virus season' after trying to back off from his millions estimates.

    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Nobody claimed millions would die, exactly.

    A first run model thrown around a lot estimated 200k-i forget total possible deaths.

    And with massive shutdown we're still at 50,000 in a month.

    If I continues as it is, do you think there is any chance we dont end up at 200k+? Maybe before even getting into next virus season

    2,000+ a day adds up pretty quick. And that with shutdown
    Last edited by soaponarope1; 05-17-2020 at 04:03 PM.
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    Originally Posted by waytoodeep03 View Post
    Its too soon


    Besides there was a report that Georgia has only 6% of people out actually shopping. Even though the economy is wide open
    Everyone else is still hunkered down.
    Made a post a minute ago with some stats but I got the wrong Georgia.

    Here’s tracking movement of Georgians:

    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf

    Been increasing a bit to retail (from -30% before shutdown to -17% now). So some people are going out but still a decrease from pre-COVID. Travel to workplace is still at normal COVID lows, might explain why people arent going out more.
    They said she's gone too far this time

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    Gotta give credit for pulling posts to back your point, but I don't see anywhere where he's saying there's going to be millions dead. Are you also going after people who laughed at 5k?
    Because I never did. Anybody who objectivey reads what was actually said gets it

    He can't laugh at people who predicted 5k or less after 10 months because he used to support them lol
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    Originally Posted by waytoodeep03 View Post
    Its too soon


    Besides there was a report that Georgia has only 6% of people out actually shopping. Even though the economy is wide open
    Everyone else is still hunkered down.
    that seems like a ridiculous statistic that is near impossible to measure
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    He did it a lot in another thread (this one is actually pretty tame for Farley posts). Kept insisting that the CFR would be above 3.4%, exponential case growths, millions dead. I actually did the number based on one of his sensationalist posts before and it came out to 200million + dead (srs).

    FWIW, Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)

    Normally I wouldn't spend the energy to dig up posts by a moron, but this dude has been trying to stoke panic for months and frankly its tiring.
    stop lying

    But feel free to keep quoting posts that prove me right and show your lies lol
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Another easily found example of him being full of ****, check this post out. Gotta go to it, can't quote things already in quotes.



    I got a bunch of crap from him in a previous covid stickly thread when I said that the CFR would settle to .7% or below, now he's actually posting it as if it fits his panic agenda



    More people who remember his retarded claims



    Here is he projecting no chance we don't have 200k+ before 'next virus season' after trying to back off from his millions estimates.
    It's a question.

    If it continues as it is, do you think we'll finish under 200k??
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    I don't understand this weird fascination in trying to predict deaths of thousands of people, all of which lies outside of anyone's circle of influence in this thread.

    I understand even less when people are seemingly setting up for an "I told you so", again based on the number of deaths in tens of thousands of people.

    This goes for either side btw.
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    ^Thats not how modeling works, especially your extrapolation from NYC #s. You have to account for other things in other areas. Dubuque, IA doesn't have the same demographics and population density as NYC, so you factor that in. In addition, that's if....IF those herd immunity numbers are even correct. You're stretching his post here to the most extreme caricature of what it actually is.

    I wonder how the flucels would have reacted if everything was known upfront instead of Monday morning QBing here. "OK America, we're gonna have 150k deaths, don't worry though our plan is going with the herd immunity-go shop and eat and bar hop NAO!" Lol. Half of you guys would be flipping the fuk out about this in the other direction.

    As it is now, we're looking at a situation twice as bad as a hard flu season. With social distancing. I'd say the overreacting was well called for. By the way, we're not out of the woods yet, anyone who scoffed at 5k deaths and or 50k deaths happening here, calling "hurr flu!" should have their **** tossed.
    Until you can point to the fatality rate among people aged 70+ who get the flu when a vaccine doesn't exist and no preventative measures are taken you have a pretty weak argument.

    Most deaths are 70+ year olds who have 2 or more comorbidities. You'll notice something here

    Percent of adults aged 65 and over who received an influenza vaccination during the past 12 months: 68.7%
    These people get Flu vaccines in high numbers, because if they don't they will die. Almost all nursing home residents (and other very unhealthy people) get Flu shots. The healthy don't. The healthy are also less likely to die from it. This artificially lowers the Flu death rate as only the strong and healthy (even among the aged) don't get the shot an actually get the Flu.

    If every single person in a nursing home got the seasonal Flu, I'd wager there would also be a lot of deaths.

    You're comparing apples to oranges (so is the media) because it's easy. Apply some critical thinking.
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    stop lying

    But feel free to keep quoting posts that prove me right and show your lies lol
    You and I both know this site has a decrepit search system. I can't find the first stickied covid thread, so I cede the argument simply because I can't dig up the quotes.

    You know what you said though, if it makes you feel smart to imagine you didn't say those things that is neat. I'm out because this is a waste of time.
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    Originally Posted by Anachron View Post
    I don't understand this weird fascination in trying to predict deaths of thousands of people, all of which lies outside of anyone's circle of influence in this thread.

    I understand even less when people are seemingly setting up for an "I told you so", again based on the number of deaths in tens of thousands of people.

    This goes for either side btw.
    It came about because flutards went on and on about how like 5k or 6,500 would be the top end total for the nation after 6-12 months therefore reeeeeee and others of us said, uh, no, you don't understand how to reasonably foresee what is about to happen and it's better to work Now to avoid it rather than after the fact
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    You and I both know this site has a decrepit search system. I can't find the first stickied covid thread, so I cede the argument simply because I can't dig up the quotes.

    You know what you said though, if it makes you feel smart to imagine you didn't say those things that is neat. I'm out because this is a waste of time.
    Yes I know you are lying out of your ass and have been for some time
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    It came about because flutards went on and on about how like 5k or 6,500 would be the top end total for the nation after 6-12 months therefore reeeeeee and others of us said, uh, no, you don't understand how to reasonably foresee what is about to happen and it's better to work Now to avoid it rather than after the fact
    Really?

    I recall the original thread had numbers in the range of 25 million as the best case scenario for the US.

    What purpose do these "predictions", whether they be high or low, serve?
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    It came about because flutards went on and on about how like 5k or 6,500 would be the top end total for the nation after 6-12 months therefore reeeeeee and others of us said, uh, no, you don't understand how to reasonably foresee what is about to happen and it's better to work Now to avoid it rather than after the fact
    So your rebuttal was that you initially said 46million would die world wide and over 1 million in the USA lmao.
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    Originally Posted by Anachron View Post
    Really?

    I recall the original thread had numbers in the range of 25 million as the best case scenario for the US.

    What purpose do these "predictions", whether they be high or low, serve?
    Are the distancing measures worth it.That is the purpose. If only 5k die by December its not worth closing dine in restaurants

    I... Do not recall 25 million in the US lolwut
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Another easily found example of him being full of ****, check this post out. Gotta go to it, can't quote things already in quotes.

    I got a bunch of crap from him in a previous covid stickly thread when I said that the CFR would settle to .7% or below, now he's actually posting it as if it fits his panic agenda
    The funny thing is that is that was never even a bold claim. The infection fatality rate (IFR) was estimated to be less than 1% back in February. Imperial's original March 16th paper used an IFR of 0.8%. So it's really not much less dangerous than were worried about. That was his own misunderstanding. The CFR is always grossly inflated.
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post



    Here is he projecting no chance we don't have 200k+
    It's a question.

    If it continues as it is, do you think we'll finish under 200k??




    (the direct quote being "If I continues as it is, do you think there is any chance we dont end up at 200k+? Maybe before even getting into next virus season")
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