🦇🦠🧪✡️ COVID-19 Hangout Thread 🔬🛸💊🦎 Episode IV: A New Hope

[maverickTT1]

Here we go LA fitness grand opening 5/22 in Georgia

I ain't going but will def observe the parking lot to see how many are going to hit the ol locker room

Onelife Fitness opened this Wednesday and is at 30% capacity. Mostly younger people. This is in Holly Springs,GA

[Bcl2]

texas getting dikked down by the rona after opening up. what a surprise.

A lot of this is targeted testing at meat factories in Amarillo - 700 confirmed in Randall and Potter counties alone. This is going to suck.

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020...s-in-amarillo/

[Farley1324]

Seems we might be still dealing with this in 2021 at this rate.

I think that's pretty much a foregone conclusion

[ANumber1]

I wish we could get to a place where we feel confident that we have it under control and school is in play. Right now it feels like we are ages away from that and I don't understand why. Feels like other countries are doing better than America. Not sure if that's actually the case though

My Sicilian acquaintences tell me they're going to be doing staggered scheduling, with half the kids in class one day and the other half the next, to control crowding.

Sounds like chit and like instruction will be rushed and stressful.

[WoofieNugget]

My Sicilian acquaintences tell me they're going to be doing staggered scheduling, with half the kids in class one day and the other half the next, to control crowding.

Sounds like chit and like instruction will be rushed and stressful.

So the problem with this is child care. In my country at least most households have two parents working. What if one can't work from home? It means there need to be daycares open, which is basically the same thing as school anyway.

No way they are going to be able to keep young kids apart in school. One of our provinces tried and the whole thing is ridiculous, most parents are simply just keeping their kids home anyway.

[TrinnieBuu]

Haven’t looked at fatalities too closely the last week. Holy hell at Brazil and Mexico. There goes my hopes that this would at least slow down enough for containment to gain traction in the summer months.

[waytoodeep03]

Haven’t looked at fatalities too closely the last week. Holy hell at Brazil and Mexico. There goes my hopes that this would at least slow down enough for containment to gain traction in the summer months.

What happened

[BigPoppaPump84]

What happened

They're getting rekt

[Frank Drebin]

My province is getting rekt



For reference, average life expectancy in AB was 81.7 years in 2015.

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...statistics.htm

Average age of death is older than life expectancy.

[Destor]

My province is getting rekt

[img]https://forum.bodybuilding.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=9227641&d=1589732128

For reference, average life expectancy in AB was 81.7 years in 2015.

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...statistics.htm

Average age of death is older than life expectancy.

Huh didn’t know you’re an Alberta brah


Yeah we haven’t been hit that hard, especially outside of the Calgary / South region. Life out here feels not too far from normal right now

[Frank Drebin]

Huh didn’t know you’re an Alberta brah


Yeah we haven’t been hit that hard, especially outside of the Calgary / South region. Life out here feels not too far from normal right now

The more I find out about this virus the more I realize these nation wide lockdowns were a giant pile of sh!t implemented by a bunch of morons who didn't do their homework.

[LukeLissen]

So far I've got two family confirmed with COVID-19.

My younger brother who lives in Rolesville and works in Raleigh became symptomatic and tested positive. He caught it from a coworker he was around who became sick just a few days prior to him. He's over it now and back to work. He's in his 40's and smoked most of his life until he quit a few years ago during a flu sickness. He said this was tougher and more painful on his lungs than the flu, which he's had a few bad cases of also. He considered going to the ER at a few points but struggled through it.

My cousin's wife who lives a mile down the road from me out here in the country and who works at a local health dept in a town with a pretty serious outbreak in nursing homes is currently home sick with it and tested positive. It's not surprising considering where she works and the outbreak in town. From what I hear she's having only mild to moderate symptoms.

My parents are still hunkered down at home with a 'no visitors' sign on the exterior doors. I'm the only one doing their shopping for them and visiting them. If I get sick with it they've got enough stocked up to survive while I quarantine and get over it. Right now they're accepting they may have to stay mostly isolated until either a vaccine is out or enough herd immunity develops to greatly reduce the spread. Mom needs dental work bad and dad has to see his cancer doctor for blood work so they're gonna have to get out for those things, and they both want haircuts but I've told em I can do it (LOL I think).

[eod8989]

at a mall plaza right now and almost everything is shut down except a few stores and they are handing out masks and only letting a few people in the store at a time

Absolute clown world

[Farley1324]

at a mall plaza right now and almost everything is shut down except a few stores and they are handing out masks and only letting a few people in the store at a time

Absolute clown world

Just think how our expectations have changed

We're at an under reported 90,332 covid deaths in the US in like two months time and acting like that number is too low to really care about...a couple months ago we were arguing about whether there would be 6,500 by September

[BigPoppaPump84]

Just think how our expectations have changed

We're at an under reported 90,332 covid deaths in the US in like two months time and acting like that number is too low to really care about...a couple months ago we were arguing about whether there would be 6,500 by September

This. Going back to the original covid thread and miscers making bold claims like "there's no way deaths hit x thousand!" with such certainty. Brutal.

[eod8989]

Just think how our expectations have changed

We're at an under reported 90,332 covid deaths in the US in like two months time and acting like that number is too low to really care about...a couple months ago we were arguing about whether there would be 6,500 by September

There are barely any cases in my area. 100+ mile radius

[rikugunchusa]

Going out to a bar today before AZ gets phukked by 2nd wave from ppl travelling back and forth from mexico

[LukeLissen]

Trump wants 300 million doses of vaccine by Jan 2020.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...avirus-vaccine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed

The only way that amount would be needed is in the case of mandatory vaccination. I hope that's not the case. I plan on taking a voluntary vaccine but a mandatory one will be putting up huge red flags for myself and likely tens of millions of others.

Regardless, he's putting the cart ahead of the horse considering vaccine development takes years and not months.

[Farley1324]

Trump wants 300 million doses of vaccine by Jan 2020.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...avirus-vaccine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed

The only way that amount would be needed is in the case of mandatory vaccination.

It doesn't matter because we're not going to have them

[5x10]

Deaths went from 50k on 5/1 to 90k today

[Farley1324]

Deaths went from 50k on 5/1 to 90k today

We were over 60k when we hit May

worldometers right now is showing 65k on May 1

And when a revised ihme model came out that showed like 60k by August people said it was too high lol

[Farley1324]

Weren't you saying we would have millions. Yes...expectations have certainly changed.

Nope.

Repeating the same lie doesn't make it anything different.

I did take chalup up on his ban bet regarding 6,500 by September though. What do you think? We going to hit 6,500 before September?

[HtotheOV]

I now know 4 people who recovered and no one in their households got the virus

not sure how but it’s interesting

[jackamo2887]

Weren't you saying we would have millions. Yes...expectations have certainly changed.

In my county if someone dies of an overdose and they have Corona.. It's counted as a Corona death.

[Chargr]

I now know 4 people who recovered and no one in their households got the virus

not sure how but it’s interesting

I’ve said it before here but yeah I also saw the same thing happen. Tenants that live on the back of my moms house. 1 of 5 got sick with the virus. All others seem fine. The guy who got sick had diabetes is in his 50s, out of the hospital relaxing now hmm

[soaponarope1]

Weren't you saying we would have millions. Yes...expectations have certainly changed.

Nope.

Repeating the same lie doesn't make it anything different.

I did take chalup up on his ban bet regarding 6,500 by September though. What do you think? We going to hit 6,500 before September?

Gonna go ahead and stop you there bud. Here's some of your math from earlier in this very thread

I'm not the one trying to take that number and apply it to the whole country, I am responding to people who are doing that and explaining why it doesn't mean what they think it means.

Imagine if there was a bit of truth to the santa clara numbers where 1.5% of people tested (by a non-FDA approved test that shows false positives to other different viruses) positive to antibodies? Okay, imagine if 1.5% of people were positive?

But, let's just play pretend and say NY has 25% immunity. That would mean NY, who is way ahead of the rest of the nation on the timeline, is 1/3 of the way to their herd immunity target. If their CFR held steady from current till they hit that threshold, that would mean NY deaths tripling from 17k to 51k. NY alone. Now, take that ratio of deaths/population and apply it to other areas as they get into the meat of their curve on a time delay from NY.

Went ahead and finished this math up for you. This means 0.26221079691517% of NY would die (to hit your 51k estimate, btw it is now at 22,478 and the deaths/day are steadily slowing from 790 on April 8th to 141 yesterday). If you extrapolate this imaginary number to the rest of the country, you get 839,074. That's pretty damn close to a million.

Here's your 'conservative' estimate

Your number is likely not correct. But, let's play the "what if" game.

Say the effective mortality rate is 0.25%. And say we take the low end herd immunity number of 60% of the population (keeping in mind the more contagious it is, the more people we don't know about that already have it...the higher that % goes...easily to 80% or more). But anyway, US population 324 million * 60% * 0.25% * = 486,000. Do you disagree with that equation or its relevance?

[quote]

I've seen you sensationalize it much more than your tame new york 'estimate' more times than I care to count. So yes, you are a sensationalist feeding into the panic. Congrats. Btw, were sitting comfortably at 89,754 right, now, not even close to 839,074. Gonna be a long decade at this rate if were gonna hit 839,074 anytime soon.

If you were talking about just the city of NY (I gave you the benefit of the doubt number wise), your calling for over 1.8million.

[Farley1324]

Gonna go ahead and stop you there bud. Here's some of your math from earlier in this very thread



Went ahead and finished this math up for you. This means 0.26221079691517% of NY would die (to hit your 51k estimate, btw it is now at 22,478 and the deaths/day are steadily slowing from 790 on April 8th to 141 yesterday). If you extrapolate this imaginary number to the rest of the country, you get 839,074. That's pretty damn close to a million.

Here's your 'conservative' estimate


I've seen you sensationalize it much more than your tame new york 'estimate' more times than I care to count. So yes, you are a sensationalist feeding into the panic. Congrats. Btw, were sitting comfortably at 89,754 right, now, not even close to 839,074. Gonna be a long decade at this rate if were gonna hit 839,074 anytime soon.

If you were talking about just the city of NY (I gave you the benefit of the doubt number wise), your calling for over 1.8million.

Thank you for proving me right.

"Imagine if there were a bit of truth". Yup. Just imagine if there were a bit of truth. Sure sounds like calling for to me.

dumbass

PS: You realize it's only been like two months and we're literally adding 1-2k deaths a day during 'summer' months...right?

dumbass

[havoc00]

No spike in coronavirus in places reopening, U.S. health secretary says


https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...says/24335876/

[soaponarope1]

Thank you for proving me right.

"Imagine if there were a bit of truth". Yup. Just imagine if there were a bit of truth. Sure sounds like calling for to me.

dumbass

PS: You realize it's only been like two months and we're literally adding 1-2k deaths a day during 'summer' months...right?

dumbass

Your post implied you think NYS doesn't have 25% immunity (unless 'let's just play pretend ' means something different to you) meaning your estimate of 839,074 is aconservative, low number.

And yeah, we had ~1200 yesterday. In order to hit 1 million we'd need to do that for the next 758 days. Good luck with us hitting your crazy exponential numbers, especially considering the virus has already run through a bunch of nursing homes (the average death age is actually above the life expectancy).

The imhe model predicts 147,000 by August 1st, which is 77 days away. You'll notice that 147,000 - 90,000 = 57,000 over the next 11 weeks (also known as 77 days) roughly. Giving us an estimate of 740/day. At that rate we'll be in pandemic mode for 1,229.7 days to hit your low estimate. Better go buy some toilet paper

This is not a scary thing for 99.8% of the population.

AGE
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

[Johnez]

^Thats not how modeling works, especially your extrapolation from NYC #s. You have to account for other things in other areas. Dubuque, IA doesn't have the same demographics and population density as NYC, so you factor that in. In addition, that's if....IF those herd immunity numbers are even correct. You're stretching his post here to the most extreme caricature of what it actually is.

I wonder how the flucels would have reacted if everything was known upfront instead of Monday morning QBing here. "OK America, we're gonna have 150k deaths, don't worry though our plan is going with the herd immunity-go shop and eat and bar hop NAO!" Lol. Half of you guys would be flipping the fuk out about this in the other direction.

As it is now, we're looking at a situation twice as bad as a hard flu season. With social distancing. I'd say the overreacting was well called for. By the way, we're not out of the woods yet, anyone who scoffed at 5k deaths and or 50k deaths happening here, calling "hurr flu!" should have their **** tossed.