🦇🦠🧪✡️ COVID-19 Hangout Thread 🔬🛸💊🦎 Episode IV: A New Hope

[Farley1324]

Yeah unhealthy people die from infections. Nothing new here. Virus ain't even close to what it has been billed as. Does this upset you?

You're right. It's no more dangerous than the common cold. Nobody is dying, nobody is going to die, we should go back to life exactly as it was four months ago.

You and your family should light the way. Go out, be normal, act like it's 2018. Get off the misc and don't concern yourself with the sheep bleating on about this nonesense any more. Go forth and be merry.

You just keep ignoring the obvious. Jesus Christ.

0.5% is 5x 0.1%. Do you agree?

[inspectionstare]

You're right. It's no more dangerous than the common cold. Nobody is dying, nobody is going to die, we should go back to life exactly as it was four months ago.

You and your family should light the way. Go out, be normal, act like it's 2018. Get off the misc and don't concern yourself with the sheep bleating on about this nonesense any more. Go forth and be merry.

Already am. You mad?

[inspectionstare]

You just keep ignoring the obvious. Jesus Christ.



Wtf? I’ve been calling for the reopening before most people. But with obvious guidelines.

My bad. Was under the impression you were another irrational panic brah. Repped.

[Frank Drebin]

Based on everything we know, without a drastic change to circumstances, a lot more people are yet to die than already have.

Nothing we can do to stop that. Only thing we can do is prevent the hospital system from being overloaded, and base our economy/social distancing off that. We can't stop the spread, and we can't stop the vulnerable that get it from dying from it. We can't sit on our hands till a vaccine is released, so what else can we do?

People are getting a very dangerous idea with this bullsht about "80 times more people have it than we thought"...looking at actual numbers from studies and understanding what they would actually mean is what we need, not to bleat like sheep at the OMGHSD80TIMES headline with 0 understanding of anything 'under the hood'.

Yes, Stanford did a study where 1.5% of people tested had antibodies. They then massaged those numbers to estimate that up to 5.2% might have immunity. Even if you take conservative low numbers for herd immunity we need 60%. We've already had 40k die to get to the estimated 5.2% number...how many will die to get to even just 60%?

Again, this was a study on a county of 1.95million people where there were ~1800 confirmed cases and 79 deaths. All it shows is that its a lot more widespread than testing can keep up with. If it is 16x more prevalent than the testing shows in Santa Clara County, it stands to reason that its off by at least a factor of 10 in NY state. 15% herd immunity isn't a lot, but its contributes to the slowing of the curve which may mean the hardest hit areas may be able to recover faster.

We can't stop the deaths.

[Yoopwat]

Jesus Christ this free YouTube gig thing is the most self indulgent load of crap I’ve watched in a hot minute.

[Farley1324]

Nothing we can do to stop that. Only thing we can do is prevent the hospital system from being overloaded, and base our economy/social distancing off that. We can't stop the spread, and we can't stop the vulnerable that get it from dying from it. We can't sit on our hands till a vaccine is released, so what else can we do?

Open up slowwwwwly in careful, small steps, because if we just jump back in the way a few want to, we will be right back at the 'curve' spiking above hospital capacity.

Again, this was a study on a county of 1.95million people where there were ~1800 confirmed cases and 79 deaths. All it shows is that its a lot more widespread than testing can keep up with. If it is 16x more prevalent than the testing shows in Santa Clara County, it stands to reason that its off by at least a factor of 10 in NY state. 15% herd immunity isn't a lot, but its contributes to the slowing of the curve which may mean the hardest hit areas may be able to recover faster.

We can't stop the deaths.

CA is one of the most under-tested states in the country. You can't take two states with two different levels of testing and just copy and paste an "x-times the tested" precisely because of the difference in baseline testing.

NY has tested 29k people per 1 million population. CA has tested 6k people per million population. So of course CA official numbers are relatively lower than NY...because NY has tested more than 4x as many on a per capita basis

[Frank Drebin]

Your number is likely not correct. But, let's play the "what if" game.

Say the effective mortality rate is 0.25%. And say we take the low end herd immunity number of 60% of the population (keeping in mind the more contagious it is, the more people we don't know about that already have it...the higher that % goes...easily to 80% or more). But anyway, US population 324 million * 60% * 0.25% * = 486,000. Do you disagree with that equation or its relevance?

Yup. 500k deaths to get close to herd immunity without a vaccine. Assume this happens over the course of 24 months. Average deaths in a year in America is ~3.0million. Assume 20% of the Covid victims would have died during those 2 years regardless, we're looking at a death rate increase of ~7% over 2 years to get close to herd immunity without a vaccine.

[Frank Drebin]

Open up slowwwwwly in careful, small steps, because if we just jump back in the way a few want to, we will be right back at the 'curve' spiking above hospital capacity.

agreed

CA is one of the most under-tested states in the country. You can't take two states with two different levels of testing and just copy and paste an "x-times the tested" precisely because of the difference in baseline testing.

NY has tested 29k people per 1 million population. CA has tested 6k people per million population. So of course CA official numbers are relatively lower than NY...because NY has tested more than 4x as many on a per capita basis

fair point

[Farley1324]

Yup. 500k deaths to get close to herd immunity without a vaccine. Assume this happens over the course of 24 months. Average deaths in a year in America is ~3.0million. Assume 20% of the Covid victims would have died during those 2 years regardless, we're looking at a death rate increase of ~7% over 2 years to get close to herd immunity without a vaccine.

Why do you assume it would happen at a rate of 685 deaths per day? We are already at 4x that...and that is during a super hardcore stay at home blitz

[Frank Drebin]

Why do you assume it would happen at a rate of 685 deaths per day? We are already at 4x that...and that is during a super hardcore stay at home blitz

All the hardest hit areas got hit by surprise. We're still seeing the effects of the spread from Ranger/Knicks games a month ago. We're not going back to that life till this virus is gone.

The effects of social distancing, seasonal variations, measured lockdowns and relaxations of said lockdowns combined with the increased herd immunity will lower the infection level and daily death rate to a manageable level, where we almost forget about it.

[Farley1324]

All the hardest hit areas got hit by surprise. We're still seeing the effects of the spread from Ranger/Knicks games a month ago. We're not going back to that life till this virus is gone.

The effects of social distancing, seasonal variations, measured lockdowns and relaxations of said lockdowns combined with the increased herd immunity will lower the infection level and daily death rate to a manageable level, where we almost forget about it.

The effects of social distancing are currently at their maximum, they will only go down from here as we start to open back up.

Herd immunity of 1.5%-5% just isn't enough to slow things down. Not enough people, yet.

Biggest hope right now is seasonal cuts it down for the summer.

[ymer]

Which I don't have. So yeah I'm scared of this virus more so than the flu. I've had the regular flu, it knocked me down but I recovered. This can cause a greater chance of a **** storm in the form of a cytokine storm.

Well well, turns out that all your fearmongering is just out of self interest.

How liberal and predictable.

[jackamo2887]

Aw **** Farley in meltdown mode.

[charity4thepoor]

This is a good thread. But, clearly, Farley is tryna be the first miscer to 1 million posts. Good luck, god speed, and god bless!

[ymer]

The effects of social distancing are currently at their maximum, they will only go down from here as we start to open back up.

Herd immunity of 1.5%-5% just isn't enough to slow things down. Not enough people, yet.

Biggest hope right now is seasonal cuts it down for the summer.

What good can the sunrays and heat do (if they are effective at killing the virus) if 99% of infections are from not social distancing and not disinfecting your hands every 10 seconds?

Hopefully one day you will realize you were bull****ted all this time. But I seriously doubt it.

[ymer]

Also: Only go out if absolutely necessary, including the supermarket.

I'm fuking confused now. Ok I need to know exactly how much should I hoard so I don't have to go to the supermarket every week.

[Farley1324]

What good can the sunrays and heat do (if they are effective at killing the virus) if 99% of infections are from not social distancing and not disinfecting your hands every 10 seconds?

Hopefully one day you will realize you were bull****ted all this time. But I seriously doubt it.

Hopefully one day you realize I've been right the entire time.

Keep telling yourself that 2500 daily deaths, during the middle of a nationwide lockdown, is no big deal.

[havoc00]

You can blame all the paniccels when you see all the local business shut down, depression, bankruptcy etc....

[ymer]

Hopefully one day you realize I've been right the entire time.

Any response to the actual comment?

Here you go again: What good can the sunrays and heat do (if they are effective at killing the virus) if 99% of infections are from not social distancing and not disinfecting your hands every 10 seconds?

[Farley1324]

Any response to the actual comment?

Here you go again: What good can the sunrays and heat do (if they are effective at killing the virus) if 99% of infections are from not social distancing and not disinfecting your hands every 10 seconds?

You're right. Summer wont' do anything. Viruses never spread less during the summer, and are not seasonal. It will continue straight through. We are all doomed.

[inspectionstare]

https://youtu.be/k7v2F3usNVA

Stanford PhD explains Santa Clara numbers. Panictards stay out. You won’t like what he says.

[Destor]

you're such a panicel. whats winter in australia, 20C?

How is that panicking brah, seasonal virus outbreaks are tracked and treated by hemisphere

[PimpMasterC]

Corona news


Novel coronavirus can survive high temperatures
https://archive.is/ZERUi

Antibody tests not accurate, might detect common coronaviruses
https://archive.is/Rnyz6

Virus travels 4.5 meters, stays in air 30 minutes
https://archive.is/2YKrJ

Virus hides in neurons, indefinitely escapes recognition
https://archive.is/6NGuH

Patients in Italy testing positive after 50 days
https://archive.is/RxaUK

Virus spreads through pipes
https://archive.is/dTtfj

China burning bodies without testing or registration
https://archive.is/Thlaq

China covering up "second wave" of infections
https://archive.is/I92fj

China says only 3% of Wuhan developed immunity
https://archive.is/blCuE

Virus might cause micro blood clots, dangerous even post-infection
https://archive.is/kSNXS

Virus doesn't show up on throat samples
https://archive.is/FDXiM

Heart attack main cause of death, not respiratory issues
https://archive.is/bz26i

Virus might aid gut bacteria, worsening infection
https://archive.is/CI9sO

"Recovered" men show half the normal levels of testosterone
https://archive.is/3G21P

Virus inhibits body's immune function
https://archive.is/v6Tl9

REHVA experts unambigously mention airborne transmission
https://archive.is/1SP4w

Air conditioning helps corona propagate faster
https://archive.is/Yo7Mo

Infected come out negative 50 to 70% of the time
https://archive.is/yyGJm

Exhaled 'aerosols' spread coronavirus up to 13 feet—and shoes carry the virus, too
https://archive.fo/rgZvh

Lithuania reports 9 cases of reinfection
https://archive.is/v24CV

US underreports amount of deaths, investigation confirms
https://archive.is/WkFbV

r0 between 3.8 and 8.9, according to the CDC
https://archive.is/IyGbv

Reinfection has now been reported in the US
https://archive.is/MUzqD

UK is undercounting deaths, according to official data
https://archive.is/EoUDu


-China barricading cities. Locals not allowed to leave (16.april)

-High blood pressure one of the worst preconditions to have for corona. Almost 1/3 of american adults have high blood pressure.


"Normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will function in the future the way they normally have functioned in the past and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

[markkillerings]

Imagine people willing to quarantine themselves until a vaccine is found just so we can prevent bingocels and sickcels from dying. Ain't gonna happen, bub. People dying in droves is our new normal. Going into an economic depression is not it.

[nickh04]

[ymer]

That's what I get for throwing out something optimistic when clearly none of the data supports it.

My bet is that summer 100x more effective than "social distanging" and "disinfect the chit out of everything".

[Reliance012]

Imagine people willing to quarantine themselves until a vaccine is found just so we can prevent bingocels and sickcels from dying. Ain't gonna happen, bub. People dying in droves is our new normal. Going into an economic depression is not it.

There needs to be a happy medium. If we went with a completely “business as usual” approach, our economy would take an equally steep dive. Brb 100-200 million infected, probably half having to take work off from illness, 10%+ hospitalized and 1% dead. That would destroy our economy.

[SoutheastBeast1]

Imagine people willing to quarantine themselves until a vaccine is found just so we can prevent bingocels and sickcels from dying. Ain't gonna happen, bub. People dying in droves is our new normal. Going into an economic depression is not it.

The irony of all of this... more people have been born in 2020 than have died.

We're so parasitic as a species even nature can't successfully put our numbers in a deficit on the year.


Feel bad for Earth right now tbh

[havoc00]

Corona news


Novel coronavirus can survive high temperatures
https://archive.is/ZERUi

Antibody tests not accurate, might detect common coronaviruses
https://archive.is/Rnyz6

Virus travels 4.5 meters, stays in air 30 minutes
https://archive.is/2YKrJ

Virus hides in neurons, indefinitely escapes recognition
https://archive.is/6NGuH

Patients in Italy testing positive after 50 days
https://archive.is/RxaUK

Virus spreads through pipes
https://archive.is/dTtfj

China burning bodies without testing or registration
https://archive.is/Thlaq

China covering up "second wave" of infections
https://archive.is/I92fj

China says only 3% of Wuhan developed immunity
https://archive.is/blCuE

Virus might cause micro blood clots, dangerous even post-infection
https://archive.is/kSNXS

Virus doesn't show up on throat samples
https://archive.is/FDXiM

Heart attack main cause of death, not respiratory issues
https://archive.is/bz26i

Virus might aid gut bacteria, worsening infection
https://archive.is/CI9sO

"Recovered" men show half the normal levels of testosterone
https://archive.is/3G21P

Virus inhibits body's immune function
https://archive.is/v6Tl9

REHVA experts unambigously mention airborne transmission
https://archive.is/1SP4w

Air conditioning helps corona propagate faster
https://archive.is/Yo7Mo

Infected come out negative 50 to 70% of the time
https://archive.is/yyGJm

Exhaled 'aerosols' spread coronavirus up to 13 feet—and shoes carry the virus, too
https://archive.fo/rgZvh

Lithuania reports 9 cases of reinfection
https://archive.is/v24CV

US underreports amount of deaths, investigation confirms
https://archive.is/WkFbV

-China barricading cities. Locals not allowed to leave (16.april)

-High blood pressure one of the worst preconditions to have for corona. Almost 1/3 of american adults have high blood pressure.

[Voidgaze]

There needs to be a happy medium. If we went with a completely “business as usual” approach, our economy would take an equally steep dive. Brb 100-200 million infected, probably half having to take work off from illness, 10%+ hospitalized and 1% dead. That would destroy our economy.

This logic has been explained so many times. No one seems to get it.