I already know there is. We've been saying this on here since before Trump even declared it a national emergency.
|
Closed Thread
Results 61 to 90 of 8948
-
04-18-2020, 10:04 AM #61PC specs
i9 9900k/AMD RX 6800 16 GB/16 GB RAM/LG BX 65'' OLED/Gigabyte GS27QC 27''
OLED Master Race crew
1440p 120+ fps only crew
6'2 master race crew
Audiophile crew
Metal crew
Introvert/INTJ crew
German crew
If you aren't getting stronger you aren't getting bigger crew
-
04-18-2020, 10:05 AM #62
-
04-18-2020, 10:07 AM #63
- Join Date: Aug 2006
- Location: San Diego, California, United States
- Posts: 34,906
- Rep Power: 238906
"To be a warrior is not a simple matter of wishing to be one. It is rather an endless struggle that will go on to the very last moment of our lives. Nobody is born a warrior, in exactly the same way that nobody is born an average man. We make ourselves into one or the other."-- Carlos Castaneda
-
04-18-2020, 10:07 AM #64
They thought it would be worse and over reacted
/thread
If you think this has given the dems a better chance you are so wrong. Biden can’t campaign, he can’t give public speeches, he can’t raise funds. Trump is on TV everyday saving the country.Pronouns: Bro/Brah
/\^/\^Misc Colorado Crew^/\^/\
-
-
04-18-2020, 10:11 AM #65
-
04-18-2020, 10:14 AM #66
-
04-18-2020, 10:17 AM #67
-
04-18-2020, 10:19 AM #68
-
-
04-18-2020, 10:20 AM #69
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
- Rep Power: 564605
Herd immunity means it stops pandemic level spreading. With the contagiousness of this virus that means about 80% of the population needs to have immunity. Using super inflated non-approved test multipled estimate study numbers people keep parroting, we get up to 5.2% with immunity.
So we might be up to 5.2% if you believe the inflated study, and we need 80%. To get to that 5.2% estimated number, about 40k people have died.
-
04-18-2020, 10:22 AM #70
-
04-18-2020, 10:24 AM #71
-
04-18-2020, 10:27 AM #72
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
- Rep Power: 564605
So maybe it will kill 5x as many of the infected as flu, while infecting many times more. That isn't exactly good.
What's why we are somewhere between 0.22% and 5% of the population having been infected (by the "nothing to see here move along" posts on this page, we get those %'s) and pushing 40k deaths in under a month
During the biggest lockdown the country and world has ever seen
-
-
04-18-2020, 10:33 AM #73
No one has ever suggested this thing is good.
And you can't take that number from an area that isn't that hard hit and apply it to the whole country. Take NY state, with a population of ~20m and 234k verified infections. 1.2% of the population is already verified to have the virus. Imagine there was a bit of truth to that research done in Santa Clara and there was 20x the people walking around with the antibodies. That puts NY state at nearly 25% immunity.
You don't have to poo poo every bit of good news in an effort to relay how bad this thing is. We know its bad, but it ain't the end of the world.
-
04-18-2020, 10:40 AM #74Keep mod discussions out of your sig line
Misc 2018 and 2019 NFL Pick Em Champion- Better luck next year fellas
Resident miscer for the Super Bowl 57 CHAMPION LA Rams.
-
04-18-2020, 10:41 AM #75
-
04-18-2020, 10:42 AM #76
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
- Rep Power: 564605
I'm not the one trying to take that number and apply it to the whole country, I am responding to people who are doing that and explaining why it doesn't mean what they think it means.
Imagine if there was a bit of truth to the santa clara numbers where 1.5% of people tested (by a non-FDA approved test that shows false positives to other different viruses) positive to antibodies? Okay, imagine if 1.5% of people were positive?
But, let's just play pretend and say NY has 25% immunity. That would mean NY, who is way ahead of the rest of the nation on the timeline, is 1/3 of the way to their herd immunity target. If their CFR held steady from current till they hit that threshold, that would mean NY deaths tripling from 17k to 51k. NY alone. Now, take that ratio of deaths/population and apply it to other areas as they get into the meat of their curve on a time delay from NY.
^
An R0 of 5 gives about 80%. Pretty much the % depends on the R0 and the R0 we are seeing corresponds to 80%. That single town in Germany study people were parroting around in a similar fashion to the Stanford study claimed at least 60% would need immunity to stop pandemic level spread, also.
See, the flipside to "this is so contagious everybody is getting it but they aren't dying" is "this is so contagious everybody is going to catch it and until that happens the spread isn't going to stop or even noticeably slow"
And even the most optimistic massaged hyper inflated guesses by misc only puts a hopefully infected in the hottest of hotspots in NY at 25%
Meanwhile the study being quoted literally showed 1.5% with antibodies
-
-
04-18-2020, 10:43 AM #77
How do you not understand this super simple concept? I’ve seen you do it on multiple occasions. Oh that’s right, you’re a fear mongerer.
People have made this argument multiple times. It can be just as deadly relative to the flu, person by person, but also be more contagious thus creating more deaths. We also don’t have a vaccine or known, effective treatment for COVID, like we do for the flu.Horny.
-
04-18-2020, 10:46 AM #78
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
- Rep Power: 564605
I see...deaths don't count if it's because there's no vaccine, no treatment, and no way to stop the spread. If we had those things, we'd have fewer deaths, so, the tens of thousands who already died just don't count.
k
(no but really 0.5% CFR would literally be 5 times more lethal then seasonal influenza, which is at or below 0.1%, of those infected)
That's the super simple concept. 0.5% is 5x 0.1%
-
04-18-2020, 10:46 AM #79
-
04-18-2020, 10:46 AM #80
-
-
04-18-2020, 10:47 AM #81Keep mod discussions out of your sig line
Misc 2018 and 2019 NFL Pick Em Champion- Better luck next year fellas
Resident miscer for the Super Bowl 57 CHAMPION LA Rams.
-
04-18-2020, 10:48 AM #82
Hope to see more of this
Tests negative for Wuhan virus
Shows antibodies to virus
No symptoms
https://twitter.com/sethdillon/statu...212708353?s=21Dallas Cowboys
Lifted for 30 years
Ass > tits
No Debt Crew
-
04-18-2020, 10:51 AM #83
-
04-18-2020, 10:51 AM #84
-
-
04-18-2020, 10:55 AM #85
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
- Rep Power: 564605
Based on everything we know, without a drastic change to circumstances, a lot more people are yet to die than already have.
People are getting a very dangerous idea with this bullsht about "80 times more people have it than we thought"...looking at actual numbers from studies and understanding what they would actually mean is what we need, not to bleat like sheep at the OMGHSD80TIMES headline with 0 understanding of anything 'under the hood'.
Yes, Stanford did a study where 1.5% of people tested had antibodies. They then massaged those numbers to estimate that up to 5.2% might have immunity. Even if you take conservative low numbers for herd immunity we need 60%. We've already had 40k die to get to the estimated 5.2% number...how many will die to get to even just 60%?
So, the problem is people being misled and completing missing the actual real world implication of those numbers, and those people then declaring it's not a big deal, go back to normal, spread the virus everywhere, what could go wrong?
We can't continue with the current level of lockdown but we need to eaaaaase into it with great caution and take it step by step because a whole lot more people are going to get infected yet
-
04-18-2020, 10:55 AM #86
-
04-18-2020, 10:56 AM #87
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...udy/index.html
“The study estimated that 2.49% to 4.16% of people in Santa Clara Country had been infected with Covid-19 by April 1. This represents between 48,000 and 81,000 people, which is 50 to 85 times what county officials recorded by that date: 956 confirmed cases.”
73 deaths in Santa Clara county.
That’s a ACTUAL fatality rate of between .16 and .09%
I'm sure you'll discredit it... too painful to face your own inability to determine reality.
-
04-18-2020, 10:57 AM #88
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
- Rep Power: 564605
Your number is likely not correct. But, let's play the "what if" game.
Say the effective mortality rate is 0.25%. And say we take the low end herd immunity number of 60% of the population (keeping in mind the more contagious it is, the more people we don't know about that already have it...the higher that % goes...easily to 80% or more). But anyway, US population 324 million * 60% * 0.25% * = 486,000. Do you disagree with that equation or its relevance?
-
-
04-18-2020, 10:58 AM #89
-
04-18-2020, 10:59 AM #90
Bookmarks