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  1. #61
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    Originally Posted by JoshSP1985 View Post
    Dude that's not even remotely close to accurate. More like 90% of businesses are NOT shut down(likely more like 80%). There is a reason GDP is only projected to drop 5-10% and that's because most of the country is still working.

    Do you have any idea how many businesses are classified as essential?

    HVAC/Trades
    Medical
    Auto
    Finance
    Grocery
    Logistics
    Most of government
    and on and on and on

    and ALL the supply chains that support any of those industries such as distribution and manufacturing
    This is true I guess, a lot of places are working from home but still the estimates of unemployment at 30-50% are very realistic when you just consider the layoffs that even functioning businesses will need in order to account for the slow business
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  2. #62
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    Originally Posted by Trapstar4.4 View Post
    i dont understand. we have a shelter in place order but im going to home depot today because there is some sht that needs to get done around teh house

    it's not really essential, but im not going to wait until summer to get sht done either. or if thats the expectation then close the store
    If something is still open, then going there is not against the protocol.

    The expectation is really just use common sense but since people are idiots we have to try to spell it out.
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  3. #63
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    You all do realize that this is just delaying the mass outbreak at severe economic cost. We won't be able to maintain quarantine procedures for the months required to significantly impact the number of available ventilators.


    If we were to do this smart in a way that actually helped we would do this...

    Quarantine all people 60+ and people with lung issues for 12 weeks.
    Deliberately infect 1/6 of the healthy population at a time and quarantine them for 2 weeks. Take the next 1/6th and infect them...

    In 12 weeks 75% of the population would be immune and the old people would get infected at a much slower rate because the reproductive value would be slashed...
    the theory is we can delay for long enough to get our hospitals prepared and then we can be a lot more ready for any spikes.

    But, in my opinion, we've been shutdown for over 2 weeks and they're STILL saying the peak will be two weeks from now. So, doesnt sound like this is working
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  4. #64
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    Originally Posted by numberguy12 View Post
    Im curious about this statistic. First, what does "10-20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu" exactly mean? And also to the background and evidence supporting this statistic.
    Its probably true but we don't have the data to conclude that and anyone claiming we do is lying.

    There's so much at play right now. It could easily be the case that this isn't much more deadly than seasonal flu but people are dying due to the rapid spread causing poor treatment.
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  5. #65
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    Originally Posted by Trapstar4.4 View Post
    i dont understand. we have a shelter in place order but im going to home depot today because there is some sht that needs to get done around teh house

    it's not really essential, but im not going to wait until summer to get sht done either. or if thats the expectation then close the store
    Hardware stores are considered essential so that people can fix/get fix things in their house like a roof or the plumbing. They don't have weekend projects in mind, but I am doing the same thing.
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  6. #66
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    You all do realize that this is just delaying the mass outbreak at severe economic cost. We won't be able to maintain quarantine procedures for the months required to significantly impact the number of available ventilators.


    If we were to do this smart in a way that actually helped we would do this...

    Quarantine all people 60+ and people with lung issues for 12 weeks.
    Deliberately infect 1/6 of the healthy population at a time and quarantine them for 2 weeks. Take the next 1/6th and infect them...

    In 12 weeks 75% of the population would be immune and the old people would get infected at a much slower rate because the reproductive value would be slashed...
    Indeed yet here we are.

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  7. #67
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    Originally Posted by rectifryer View Post
    Indeed yet here we are.

    Senior hour needs to be a thing.
    No, phuck senior hour. They should be home and we should get volunteers to deliver their groceries/other essentials as needed and with extreme precautions taken.

    If we did this for them and those with compromised immune systems, the rest of us would be fine to go about business as usual.
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  8. #68
    move or die! |ceman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by numberguy12 View Post
    Im curious about this statistic. First, what does "10-20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu" exactly mean? And also to the background and evidence supporting this statistic.
    some experts on the subject from early March:
    “The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That’s the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this,” - Dr. Anthony Fauci

    "There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare. That said, it is around two percent on average, which is about 20 times higher than for the seasonal flu lineages currently in circulation." said Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London.



    Things have changed....

    Current stats worldwide:
    737,670 cases
    35,071 deaths

    4.8% case fatality rate

    Seasonal influenza has a case fatality rate of 0.1%

    so right now it's trending at 48 times more deadly than seasonal influenza based on case fatality rate
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  9. #69
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    Originally Posted by KirkMcquest View Post
    If you want to refuse the social distancing rules and carry on like nothing will happen to you, you should sign a waver that says if you get corona you will not get a ventilator.

    If you are caught walking around in crowds and disregarding the protocols, the police are to take your name in information which will go into a database of people who are ineligible to receive scarce medical services.

    Afterall, you all say nothing will happen to you, you are young and strong, so whats the objection? Why should those of us who take proper precautions and make sacrifices be dragged down by irresponsible people who dont?

    Oh, and also if you end up on the irresponsible list and it is found that through your negligence and refusal to be a responsible member of society you spread the disease to an elderly person who dies...we'll charge you will murder. Hows that sound kids?
    This needs to be implemented immediately
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  10. #70
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    Originally Posted by KirkMcquest View Post
    If you want to refuse the social distancing rules and carry on like nothing will happen to you, you should sign a waver that says if you get corona you will not get a ventilator.

    If you are caught walking around in crowds and disregarding the protocols, the police are to take your name in information which will go into a database of people who are ineligible to receive scarce medical services.

    Afterall, you all say nothing will happen to you, you are young and strong, so whats the objection? Why should those of us who take proper precautions and make sacrifices be dragged down by irresponsible people who dont?

    Oh, and also if you end up on the irresponsible list and it is found that through your negligence and refusal to be a responsible member of society you spread the disease to an elderly person who dies...we'll charge you will murder. Hows that sound kids?
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  11. #71
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    some experts on the subject from early March:
    “The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That’s the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this,” - Dr. Anthony Fauci

    "There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare. That said, it is around two percent on average, which is about 20 times higher than for the seasonal flu lineages currently in circulation." said Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London.



    Things have changed....

    Current stats worldwide:
    737,670 cases
    35,071 deaths

    4.8% case fatality rate

    Seasonal influenza has a case fatality rate of 0.1%

    so right now it's trending at 48 times more deadly than seasonal influenza based on case fatality rate
    This article went around last week and explained why those numbers are likely not accurate at all. https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-...ay-11585088464
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  12. #72
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    some experts on the subject from early March:
    “The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That’s the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this,” - Dr. Anthony Fauci

    "There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare. That said, it is around two percent on average, which is about 20 times higher than for the seasonal flu lineages currently in circulation." said Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London.



    Things have changed....

    Current stats worldwide:
    737,670 cases
    35,071 deaths

    4.8% case fatality rate

    Seasonal influenza has a case fatality rate of 0.1%

    so right now it's trending at 48 times more deadly than seasonal influenza based on case fatality rate
    The point I was curious about is exactly where, for example, Dr. Fauci was getting this statistic from. Im seeing experts saying different things, and it seems there is ambiguity. I think any firm declaration like "10-20 times more deadly than the flu" is at the very least, premature.

    It appears the "x times more deadly than the flu" is being defined as case fatality rate. But this raises additional questions regarding case rates, such as the amount of testing, asymptomatics who arent tested, deaths attributed causally to sars-cov-2, etc.
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  13. #73
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    some experts on the subject from early March:
    “The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That’s the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this,” - Dr. Anthony Fauci

    "There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare. That said, it is around two percent on average, which is about 20 times higher than for the seasonal flu lineages currently in circulation." said Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London.



    Things have changed....

    Current stats worldwide:
    737,670 cases
    35,071 deaths

    4.8% case fatality rate

    Seasonal influenza has a case fatality rate of 0.1%

    so right now it's trending at 48 times more deadly than seasonal influenza based on case fatality rate
    This is nonsense. The fatality rate is around 10% if you take confirmed flu case/deaths. The BIG difference is people always use estimated cases for the flu. If we did the same for covid-19, the fatality rate drops to a fraction.
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    No, phuck senior hour. They should be home and we should get volunteers to deliver their groceries/other essentials as needed and with extreme precautions taken.

    If we did this for them and those with compromised immune systems, the rest of us would be fine to go about business as usual.
    I tend to agree with this.

    The issue is so many americans still have other underlying conditions that could make them more vulnerable even if they arent in those categories. way too many fatties, diabetics, high blood pressures etc.
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    Originally Posted by BigBallsMcgee View Post
    This article went around last week and explained why those numbers are likely not accurate at all. https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-...ay-11585088464
    dat dere paywall

    Originally Posted by numberguy12 View Post
    The point I was curious about is exactly where, for example, Dr. Fauci was getting this statistic from. Im seeing experts saying different things, and it seems there is ambiguity. I think any firm declaration like "10-20 times more deadly than the flu" is at the very least, premature.

    It appears the "x times more deadly than the flu" is being defined as case fatality rate. But this raises additional questions regarding case rates, such as the amount of testing, asymptomatics who arent tested, deaths attributed causally to sars-cov-2, etc.
    Originally Posted by TaeBoNinja View Post
    This is nonsense. The fatality rate is around 10% if you take confirmed flu case/deaths. The BIG difference is people always use estimated cases for the flu. If we did the same for covid-19, the fatality rate drops to a fraction.
    I emphasized case fatality rate multiple times for a reason. It is a defined term with a specific definition. Suggest you pause, go educate yourself, and come back when ready.
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  16. #76
    IDDQD Austanian's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BigBallsMcgee View Post
    the theory is we can delay for long enough to get our hospitals prepared and then we can be a lot more ready for any spikes.

    But, in my opinion, we've been shutdown for over 2 weeks and they're STILL saying the peak will be two weeks from now. So, doesnt sound like this is working
    That is what I am saying...

    THEY CAN NOT get more prepared in the amount of time they are given. Retooling factories takes time.

    Ford was pretty transparent about their numbers. In a month they will be able to make 1000 additional respirators. They will be able to produce at a higher rate as time goes on.

    HOW MUCH LONGER will people last before the lose their businesses?


    However, this "working" is more complicated.
    The tests are currently taking 5-7 days to come back. Symptoms typically start between day 4-6. What we are seeing is a partial snap shot of the worst cases 9-13 days ago.


    As the ability to get tests ran increases so will the number of cases. A couple weeks ago I had 3/4 symptoms and was told no test because I am not in a high risk group. That is still very common. As the ability to test those people increases the numbers found will also increase.

    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    dat dere paywall

    I emphasized case fatality rate multiple times for a reason. It is a defined term with a specific definition. Suggest you pause, go educate yourself, and come back when ready.
    That measure is still not valid at this point in time and I question the validity in whole from disease type to disease type.
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  17. #77
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    That is what I am saying...

    THEY CAN NOT get more prepared in the amount of time they are given. Retooling factories takes time.

    Ford was pretty transparent about their numbers. In a month they will be able to make 1000 additional respirators. They will be able to produce at a higher rate as time goes on.

    HOW MUCH LONGER will people last before the lose their businesses?


    However, this "working" is more complicated.
    The tests are currently taking 5-7 days to come back. Symptoms typically start between day 4-6. What we are seeing is a partial snap shot of the worst cases 9-13 days ago.


    As the ability to get tests ran increases so will the number of cases. A couple weeks ago I had 3/4 symptoms and was told no test because I am not in a high risk group. That is still very common. As the ability to test those people increases the numbers found will also increase.
    this sounds about right to me.

    In terms of businesses, the economy is done for dude. Even if the 30th is the last day of this, the damage is going to be so bad most people dont understand.

    If on top of that, nothing is gained on the medical side, it'll just be a huge sh*itshow
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    I emphasized case fatality rate multiple times for a reason. It is a defined term with a specific definition. Suggest you pause, go educate yourself, and come back when ready.
    Seasonal influenza has a case fatality rate of 10%(confirmed), not the 0.1%(estimated) you cited. I was pointing out how dumb it is for you to compare estimated cases vs confirmed cases.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post

    That measure is still not valid at this point in time and I question the validity in whole from disease type to disease type.
    thing is that it's the most accepted and accurate measure we have to date from the medical experts that study this stuff.

    and you can question all you want, but

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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    dat dere paywall





    I emphasized case fatality rate multiple times for a reason. It is a defined term with a specific definition. Suggest you pause, go educate yourself, and come back when ready.
    This is not the issue, hopefully everyone understands what case fatality rate is. The issue is solely using this to make broad-sweeping statements like "10-20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu", a statement that appears to be unjustified at the moment. Some of the reasons why simple case fatality rate may not be a good metric were mentioned in the last post.

    The wsj article he linked with the paywall written by stanford med profs Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya talks about selection bias while not taking into consideration untested asymptomatic cases...and that the prevalence of infection may be orders of magnitude greater than positive tests, bringing fatality rate down.
    Last edited by numberguy12; 03-30-2020 at 12:25 PM.
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    thing is that it's the most accepted and accurate measure we have to date from the medical experts that study this stuff.

    and you can question all you want, but

    Interesting.

    Do you know how the fatality rate for the flu is measured?

    Now compare that to wuflu.

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    Originally Posted by rectifryer View Post
    Interesting.

    Do you know how the fatality rate for the flu is measured?

    Now compare that to wuflu.

    Welcome to misc on 15feb2020. We've been through this rigorously.

    yeah, you're probably right. every country and every medical establishment around the world is so mis-informed and grossly over-reacting to something that is less deadly than the regular seasonal flu. entire countries the size of India with 1.3 billion people that are locking down are all just so stupid. they should instead listen to the misc doctors and experts. lol


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    It does work to slow the spread. It's won't completely prevent spreading because there will always people that need to socialize (people living day to day, week to week etc) and others that are just stupid and selfish, but it works none the less.

    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    yeah, you're probably right. every country and every medical establishment around the world is so mis-informed and grossly over-reacting to something that is less deadly than the regular seasonal flu. entire countries the size of India with 1.3 billion people that are locking down are all just so stupid. they should instead listen to the misc doctors and experts. lol


    welcome to misc on every day. rational facts are discarded in favor of fringe conspiracies rigorously.
    Why would we put our faith in government bureaucrats and consensus without question? I prefer to evaluate evidence and make informed decisions on my own. History is littered with hysteria driven by misinformation and herd mentality, even from healthcare professionals and scientists.
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    Originally Posted by numberguy12 View Post
    This is not the issue, hopefully everyone understands what case fatality rate is. The issue is solely using this to make broad-sweeping statements like "10-20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu", a statement that appears to be unjustified at the moment. Some of the reasons why simple case fatality rate may not be a good metric were mentioned in the last post.

    The wsj article he linked with the paywall written by stanford med profs Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya talks about selection bias while not taking into consideration untested asymptomatic cases...and that the prevalence of infection may be orders of magnitude greater than positive tests, bringing case fatality rates down.
    This. I would be careful trying to make too conclusive a comparison between the official WHO CFR for COVID19 and that of other viruses like the flu. We will likely only be able to do that with confidence once we have serological studies and the like. The CFR for COVID19 is going to be considerably lower than the 3-5% estimate currently. That doesn't mean it isn't a big concern and likely quite a bit more deadly than the average seasonal flu.
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    yeah, you're probably right. every country and every medical establishment around the world is so mis-informed and grossly over-reacting to something that is less deadly than the regular seasonal flu. entire countries the size of India with 1.3 billion people that are locking down are all just so stupid. they should instead listen to the misc doctors and experts. lol


    welcome to misc on every day. rational facts are discarded in favor of fringe conspiracies rigorously.
    All I am saying is work it out for yourself and see if it makes sense.

    Flu spread is extrapolated then the death rate is calculated, which drives its death rate very low.

    Covid19 only counts direct testing, no extrapolation. If treated the same, the death rate is less than the flu.

    Our hospitals simply can't handle two flus.
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    Originally Posted by A-GAME View Post
    Why would we put our faith in government bureaucrats and consensus without question? I prefer to evaluate evidence and make informed decisions on my own. History is littered with hysteria driven by misinformation and herd mentality, even from healthcare professionals and scientists.

    corona virus when it hears that uneducated peeps be dismissing educated professionals in favor of doing what they read about on facebook
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    Originally Posted by numberguy12 View Post
    This is not the issue, hopefully everyone understands what case fatality rate is. The issue is solely using this to make broad-sweeping statements like "10-20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu", a statement that appears to be unjustified at the moment. Some of the reasons why simple case fatality rate may not be a good metric were mentioned in the last post.

    The wsj article he linked with the paywall written by stanford med profs Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya talks about selection bias while not taking into consideration untested asymptomatic cases...and that the prevalence of infection may be orders of magnitude greater than positive tests, bringing fatality rate down.
    This... It isn't just "my opinion".

    Right now the dynamics of this disease has a HEAVY selection bias for sampling the worst of cases. With young kids almost entirely asymptomatic and the majority of healthy adults getting what amounts to allergies or a minor cold we are losing the base number.


    The most comprehensive sample is SK which will likely end up with a 1-1.2 mortality rate. (Unfortunately this rate only exists if the people that need treatment are treated).
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    I don't know... considering that ostensibly grown, human adults need to be reminded to wash their hands, 6 feet is starting to seem too close.

    Really, though, I think the efficacy is going to be there, but it will be most prominent in the most populated cities, and the general awareness should hopefully be enough to reduce transmission in the essential stores people are still visiting.

    I would imagine part of the issue, though, is that there is broader, one-sided misconception that social distancing and quarantines are strictly about one's own risk of infection, when one could also be an asymptomatic carrier who could infect others unknowingly. So instead of seeing it as a general courtesy, we get asshats who go around coughing on items in stores to post online.

    Aside from that in regards to the fatality rate, the unknown number of untested asymptomatic cases is a variable that could greatly sway the outlook for the better, particularly given how transmissible COIVD-19 appears to be.

    Given how many confirmed cases we are seeing crop up so rapidly, one has to wonder how many others were at one point exposed to those individuals and thus potentially infected but not tested. Combined with the lack of available testing, as well as our general lack of complete understanding of the virus, the true number of infected could be much higher than thought - which would actually be a good thing in the scheme of fatality rates.
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post

    corona virus when it hears that uneducated peeps be dismissing educated professionals in favor of doing what they read about on facebook
    And after completely glossing over this part..

    There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare.
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