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  1. #1
    Registered User Heisman2's Avatar
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    Very nice COVID-19 data visualization tool for the US

    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vis...AgF94ZJe3-sPlQ

    Here you can see how the US is doing compared to other countries and how all the states are doing relative to each other. The big caveat is that there are many places in the US where we are still lacking in testing so the numbers are not fully accurate due to that. As testing ramps up even further the numbers should become even more informative. I'm curious if this can be used to influence any policy decisions regarding where resources are allocated, what if any lockdown measures should be implemented at any point in time on a statewide level, as well as if any measures specific states are taking seem to be working and can be used on a more widespread scale. Everyone can play around with it; you can change it to show cases vs deaths.
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  2. #2
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    Following that exponential to the tee.
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  3. #3
    Pedicabo ego vos et irrum A-GAME's Avatar
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    It's looking like it's tapering off. I won't hold my breath, but hopefully it peaks soon.
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  4. #4
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    Thank you, something I can understand.
    Originally Posted by Heisman2 View Post
    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vis...AgF94ZJe3-sPlQ

    Here you can see how the US is doing compared to other countries and how all the states are doing relative to each other. The big caveat is that there are many places in the US where we are still lacking in testing so the numbers are not fully accurate due to that. As testing ramps up even further the numbers should become even more informative. I'm curious if this can be used to influence any policy decisions regarding where resources are allocated, what if any lockdown measures should be implemented at any point in time on a statewide level, as well as if any measures specific states are taking seem to be working and can be used on a more widespread scale. Everyone can play around with it; you can change it to show cases vs deaths.
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  5. #5
    Registered User isingmodel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by A-GAME View Post
    It's looking like it's tapering off. I won't hold my breath, but hopefully it peaks soon.
    Lol wat?
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  6. #6
    Registered User deepfat's Avatar
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    U.S. below the growth curve. If you listen to the media you'd think that we are all fuked.

    Glad to see Cali is below the curve as well.
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  7. #7
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    Cali doing great. NYC is a chitshow due to their poor leadership, but other places are doing well
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  8. #8
    It's not the gun, stupid. Ikeman83's Avatar
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    Here are the current Wu-Pocalypse stats for the US:



    24 hours ago, the US had 116,697 cases. To double our cases in 3 days, we would need to have an increase of about 35k cases per day. Instead, we had an increase of 20k cases.


    9400 of those 20k cases were in NY and NJ, which also fell significantly short of the number of cases needed to double their totals.

    In other words, our worst hot spot is cooling and we still have a low fatality rate. Meanwhile:

    -Ventilator manufacturing is up
    -Access to PPE is up
    -The US Army Corps of Engineers is converting empty arenas into hospitals (They just finished one in NY with 3000 beds).


    Corona Virus is still killing only 1.5 percent of people who are sick enough to seek treatment/testing. More than 50% of all cases develop no symptoms.

    What you can see on the chart in the OP is that the US has passed under the line for case load doubling every 24 hours. All while our fatality rate is 1/7th that of Italy.
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  9. #9
    Registered User deepfat's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ghostfacedup View Post
    Cali doing great. NYC is a chitshow due to their poor leadership, but other places are doing well
    Hate Newsom's politics but he's done a good job with this. Basically went on lockdown early and we're now seeing the growth curve leveling off. Plus, it doesn't hurt that we in SoCal have perfect weather and hanging out on the patio with a beer is pretty enjoyable.
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  10. #10
    Banned wincel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by isingmodel View Post
    Following that exponential to the tee.
    this is really awful news...we are SO fuked
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  11. #11
    Maximum Effort gixxer0.6g's Avatar
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    Predictions are nothing more than educated guesses. And so is this graph.
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  12. #12
    Registered User isingmodel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by gixxer0.6g View Post
    Predictions are nothing more than educated guesses. And so is this graph.
    The graphs aren't a prediction you fukin dingus, it's the data we have thus far. If you extrapolated these exponential curves out into the future you very very quickly see cases surge into the many millions, unless we reach an inflection point soon.
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  13. #13
    Pedicabo ego vos et irrum A-GAME's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by isingmodel View Post
    Lol wat?


    Wishful thinking perhaps. We'll see.
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  14. #14
    Registered User isingmodel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by A-GAME View Post


    Wishful thinking perhaps. We'll see.
    Bruh... that's a logarithmic scale
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  15. #15
    Registered User bigdownunder's Avatar
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    Here's a good visualisation of what is happening to the economy right now.

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  16. #16
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    Originally Posted by A-GAME View Post


    Wishful thinking perhaps. We'll see.
    I still call BS on china's reporting.
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  17. #17
    Registered User Heisman2's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by A-GAME View Post
    It's looking like it's tapering off. I won't hold my breath, but hopefully it peaks soon.
    Unfortunately that's very unlikely from everything I have seen. We cannot test as any many people as we need to to show all of the positive cases. So any data point we see for new cases is a lower threshold for the actual new cases. For example, if we can only test 20,000 people daily but it continues going up at an exponential rate as it has been we won't actually see that in the tabulated data. The death rate though is likely going to much better reflect how rapidly everything is increasing as the vast majority of the deaths due to COVID-19 will be tabulated correctly. The only issue with the death rate is that given there is a median 5-6 day incubation period, serious respiratory distress onsets typically day 7-10 of symptoms, and death occurs during that time or after due to ARDS or heart failure of some sort, the death rate we see really reflects what was happening 2+ weeks previously. So I think it's a good glimpse into the past but doesn't really tell us what's happening with current spread. If ICUs get overrun then the death rate won't as accurately reflect spread as more people will die than necessary due to lack of resources.

    Hope that makes some sense.
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  18. #18
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    this is really awful news...we are SO fuked
    I really hope nobody is reading this and thinking this guy knows what he’s talking about.
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  19. #19
    Boogeyman spadelexus's Avatar
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    How are "recovered" numbers determined? Based on number of ppl that show a positive test + get hospitalized + get released from hospital?

    Like, if someone tests positive but doesn't need to be hospitalized so they've been self quarantining for a week and got rid of all the symptoms do they need to take the test again to be "recovered"?

    Dunno. That number looks low for some reason.

    Originally Posted by Heisman2 View Post
    Unfortunately that's very unlikely from everything I have seen. We cannot test as any many people as we need to to show all of the positive cases. So any data point we see for new cases is a lower threshold for the actual new cases. For example, if we can only test 20,000 people daily but it continues going up at an exponential rate as it has been we won't actually see that in the tabulated data. The death rate though is likely going to much better reflect how rapidly everything is increasing as the vast majority of the deaths due to COVID-19 will be tabulated correctly. The only issue with the death rate is that given there is a median 5-6 day incubation period, serious respiratory distress onsets typically day 7-10 of symptoms, and death occurs during that time or after due to ARDS or heart failure of some sort, the death rate we see really reflects what was happening 2+ weeks previously. So I think it's a good glimpse into the past but doesn't really tell us what's happening with current spread. If ICUs get overrun then the death rate won't as accurately reflect spread as more people will die than necessary due to lack of resources.

    Hope that makes some sense.
    Yeah this is what I was thinking too. It's really the only concerning number, and we've just been ramping up social distancing / lockdown measures in the past week or two.
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  20. #20
    Registered User Heisman2's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by spadelexus View Post
    How are "recovered" numbers determined? Based on number of ppl that show a positive test + get hospitalized + get released from hospital?

    Like, if someone tests positive but doesn't need to be hospitalized so they've been self quarantining for a week and got rid of all the symptoms do they need to take the test again to be "recovered"?

    Dunno. That number looks low for some reason.



    Yeah this is what I was thinking too. It's really the only concerning number, and we've just been ramping up social distancing / lockdown measures in the past week or two.
    Great question on the recoveries. Took some digging to find this: "Recovered cases outside China are estimates based on local media reports, and may be substantially lower than the true number." From: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6 (read through the text in the bottom center)

    So it's essentially useless, lol. I wouldn't pay any attention to the recovery numbers.
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  21. #21
    rapscallion gluon's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by isingmodel View Post
    Bruh... that's a logarithmic scale
    so?
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    Originally Posted by isingmodel View Post
    Bruh... that's a logarithmic scale
    I'm talking about the trend tapering off, not total of infected. Obviously the number of infected will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. But if my trend estimate is correct (possibly a little low), the US should hit 3-500k infected in the next 10 days or so, then begin to flatten soon after. My rough projection may be off quite a bit, but I would be surprised if the number of cases hits 1M. Having said that, there could certainly be a resumption of the trend if public warnings and social distancing aren't taken seriously. We'll see.

    Originally Posted by Heisman2 View Post
    Unfortunately that's very unlikely from everything I have seen. We cannot test as any many people as we need to to show all of the positive cases. So any data point we see for new cases is a lower threshold for the actual new cases. For example, if we can only test 20,000 people daily but it continues going up at an exponential rate as it has been we won't actually see that in the tabulated data. The death rate though is likely going to much better reflect how rapidly everything is increasing as the vast majority of the deaths due to COVID-19 will be tabulated correctly. The only issue with the death rate is that given there is a median 5-6 day incubation period, serious respiratory distress onsets typically day 7-10 of symptoms, and death occurs during that time or after due to ARDS or heart failure of some sort, the death rate we see really reflects what was happening 2+ weeks previously. So I think it's a good glimpse into the past but doesn't really tell us what's happening with current spread. If ICUs get overrun then the death rate won't as accurately reflect spread as more people will die than necessary due to lack of resources.

    Hope that makes some sense.
    My point is, I don't believe it will continue at an exponential rate for much longer. In fact, by the looks of that chart, it's already started to taper off.
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    Originally Posted by A-GAME View Post
    My point is, I don't believe it will continue at an exponential rate for much longer. In fact, by the looks of that chart, it's already started to taper off.
    I certainly hope you are right but given the lack of testing it is going to taper off simply due to us not being able to test everyone (yet); at this point sadly testing is still limited in lots of areas. There are several places in the country where this is just starting to pick up and will likely become hotspots in the coming weeks. We will see.
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    Originally Posted by Heisman2 View Post
    I certainly hope you are right but given the lack of testing it is going to taper off simply due to us not being able to test everyone (yet); at this point sadly testing is still limited in lots of areas. There are several places in the country where this is just starting to pick up and will likely become hotspots in the coming weeks. We will see.
    Our testing response has been a phuking disgrace. The greatest country in the world and we can't even phuking test everyone but we can sure as chit have a redbox within half a mile.

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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    Our testing response has been a phuking disgrace. The greatest country in the world and we can't even phuking test everyone but we can sure as chit have a redbox within half a mile.

    SMH
    what country is testing everyone?
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    What is chinas real numbers, right now they are pumping propaganda that the usa started the virus and it has been defeated.

    Time to isolate china.
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    what country is testing everyone?
    south korea, drive through breh
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    Originally Posted by AlwaysFocus View Post
    south korea, drive through breh
    But they aren't - they are only testing in that one city that was their hotbed. They even have said they very well could have an outbreak in another part of the country because there have been minimal effort outside their one hot spot.

    We have drivethru facilities here now as well - and we still aren't testing everyone because the medical professionals don't think it is necessary.
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    But they aren't - they are only testing in that one city that was their hotbed. They even have said they very well could have an outbreak in another part of the country because there have been minimal effort outside their one hot spot.

    We have drivethru facilities here now as well - and we still aren't testing everyone because the medical professionals don't think it is necessary.
    my thought is maybe the test is expensive and chit loads of normies with tummy aches want one. Maybe a cheap easy test will be developed.
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    Originally Posted by AlwaysFocus View Post
    my thought is maybe the test is expensive and chit loads of normies with tummy aches want one. Maybe a cheap easy test will be developed.
    they're still telling people, at least around here, if you are not at a heightened risk nor are around people that are and have symptoms they want you to stay home, rest, liquids.
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