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  1. #31
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    Originally Posted by iabs View Post
    Like I said, I can bet you a perma ban that his entire focus right now is on a drug to fight this shiit off. You find the drug and with the ongoing strengthening and restocking of our medical sector he is going to re-open the economy. You can bet your virgin ass that is what is happening right now. We can not afford another month of quarantine, look at the pacified Chinese revolting against their masters, what do you think will happen when John Doe can not feed his kids?
    Ofc he wants to find a drug...but the chances of finding a good drug are pretty slim. I doubt aminoquinolines even really work effectively vs this virus after infection. By the time people are sick, it is probably too late. Anyway, John Doe will be getting deliveries and possibly food bank help from the national guard. If he can't sit for a few weeks, he should be shot. Most Americans can easily survive one week or even a month without food. Nobody is turning the water off. We're fine.
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  2. #32
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    Originally Posted by Anachron View Post
    Quoted for posterity.
    I hope I'm wrong. But it is looking really bad.
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  3. #33
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Ofc he wants to find a drug...but the chances of finding a good drug are pretty slim. I doubt aminoquinolines even really work effectively vs this virus after infection. By the time people are sick, it is probably too late. Anyway, John Doe will be getting deliveries and possibly food bank help from the national guard. If he can't sit for a few weeks, he should be shot. Most Americans can easily survive one week without food. Nobody is turning the water off. We're fine.
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  4. #34
    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Slayermanlet View Post
    This would be terrible news as it would mean that the death rate for healthy young people is higher than previously thought
    Not really. It just means people with preexisting conditions wouldn't be counted. Wouldn't make a difference in the real rate, just the reported rates. If you say 10% of 10000 victims are under 50, but it turns out you didn't count 2500 80 year olds with problems, that becomes 1000 victims out of 12500, which is 8%. So leaving out older people with other conditions would actually cause inflation of numbers for others.
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  5. #35
    It's not the gun, stupid. Ikeman83's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    I hope you're right, but I know you're probably wrong. Now that Trump has said he is taking it srsly and will likely not reopen the economy in mid april, I think the us death toll can be significantly mitigated. Perhaps only 100,000 or so will die if people follow the quarantine.
    Perhaps only 100k dying in the US alone? You're out of your mind.
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  6. #36
    Registered User gregxy's Avatar
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    China realized CV was no worse than the flu and stopped counting. Rest of the world will soon follow.
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    that when a loser loses, he gives up. Moore's law crew.
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  7. #37
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    Originally Posted by Ikeman83 View Post
    Perhaps only 100k dying in the US alone? You're out of your mind.
    Exponential. Growth.
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  8. #38
    Registered User gregxy's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Exponential. Growth.
    Explain why Iran has flattened.
    The difference between a winner and a loser is
    that when a loser loses, he gives up. Moore's law crew.
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  9. #39
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    Originally Posted by gregxy View Post
    Explain why Iran has flattened.
    Once you're out of the exponential growth phase, it becomes logistic.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

    Notice that early on when away from carrying capacity, it looks exponential.

    Virus may have run its course in Iran OR they managed to contain it OR they haven't reported all the cases.

    Doesn't look flattened by the curve tbh. Still looks exponential. But it is hard to tell.
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  10. #40
    It's not the gun, stupid. Ikeman83's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Exponential. Growth.


    Doubling every 3 days, in 36 days 409 million Americans will have Corona. Problem is that there are only 330 million Americans.



    Continued exponential growth requires new people to infect while the virus spreads. I have interacted with 0 new people in two weeks. I will likely interact with 0 new people in the next 2 weeks. If I magically got a case of Corona, my infection spread rate would be 2 (daughter and wife), but theirs would be 0.


    The US currently has a 1.5% death rate of tested cases. Assuming we were testing at a rate of 100% (we're not, though our testing numbers are going up) and that the 1.5% death rate reflected the rate at which people were dying from the disease, rather than the rate people who were sick enough to get tested at a hospital are dying from the disease, you'd have to have 6.5 mn cases to have 100k deaths.

    Of course, the actual death rate is wildly less than 1.5%, meaning that to have 100k deaths, you'd have to have more infected Americans than there are Americans.

    In Italy (what is being taken as the "worst case scenario") they're at 10,000 dead and their healthcare infrastructure has been overwhelmed for weeks.

    In other words, what you're saying is that the United states, proportionally, is going to be twice as bad as Italy, even though our starting death rate is 1/5th of theirs. You're drunk.
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  11. #41
    It's not the gun, stupid. Ikeman83's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Once you're out of the exponential growth phase, it becomes logistic.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

    Notice that early on when away from carrying capacity, it looks exponential.

    Virus may have run its course in Iran OR they managed to contain it OR they haven't reported all the cases.

    Doesn't look flattened by the curve tbh. Still looks exponential. But it is hard to tell.

    ITT Wincel wants us to believe that the Chinese and Iranian governments are factually reporting cases and deaths.
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  12. #42
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Once you're out of the exponential growth phase, it becomes logistic.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

    Notice that early on when away from carrying capacity, it looks exponential.

    Virus may have run its course in Iran OR they managed to contain it OR they haven't reported all the cases.

    Doesn't look flattened by the curve tbh. Still looks exponential. But it is hard to tell.
    Correct. Italy is also flattening despite its healthcare system being overloaded.
    Now it's either a) the social distancing is working or b) the virus is running out of people to infect.

    Did you see the paper where they found 6% of healthcare workers in Holland were infected with CV
    back in early March? They thought it was the flu and went to work anyway!
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....23.20041913v1
    These were symptomatic cases, so the true number is probably > 10%

    The most logical explanation is CV has been spreading for a long time but has been confused with colds
    and flu. Its now running out of gas.

    My guess is Ro > 3 and IFR ~= 0.025%

    If its airborne like measles no amount of social distancing will work, and certainly not the limited
    social distancing being done now.
    Last edited by gregxy; 03-28-2020 at 12:24 PM. Reason: add reference
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  13. #43
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    Originally Posted by gregxy View Post
    Explain why Iran has flattened.
    Climate?
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    This is sad
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  15. #45
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    The Chinese are fudging the numbers?! No way....
    One of my suppliers isn't even producing anything except for masks at a rate of 1 mil a day and they are a mid sized manufacturer.
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    Climate?
    It's probably more related to testing and that half the population wasn't allowed outside without masks long before Corona.
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    Originally Posted by gregxy View Post
    Explain why Iran has flattened.
    Chemical warfare is a thing over there, so large percentage of the population already had full face gas masks for all the sarin
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  18. #48
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    China and Iran are flat out lying about their numbers. Media allowing it because they want to point out that authoritarian government is the answer.

    Take the population of China, consider the population density, how they live in such close quarters of each other, rub shoulders every day, alot more public transit, ect. Hygene standards, ect. Consider the reports of doctors and nurses who were then punished, and how western journalist were kicked out. If you believe their numbers, you're a good useful idiot that Marx would be proud of. I don't have numbers, but the evidence isn't looking good.
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    Originally Posted by JoshSP1985 View Post
    On the flip side idiots in the US think it's out of control because we're doing more testing. Not that it's "in control" but when they report things like cases doubled/tripled that doesn't necessarily mean the spread has double or tripled.
    Not to mention that basic statistics flat out tell you that the higher the spread, the lower the mortality rate.

    This is all the more true in spite of the doomsayers if one were to additionally account for however many infected have not yet or will never be diagnosed, as that is all the more infected who were either asymptomatic or might have only had very mild symptoms and were able to fight it off just fine.

    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    The death toll is probably not statistically higher than anywhere else, but I'd bet that the CCP under reports it by classifying deaths with multiple causes (like covid19 and diabetes or a heart problem, for example) as deaths caused by the underlying condition rather than the virus.

    Also, I believe they don't report asymptomatic patients as cases. Since the majority are asymptomatic that also under reports.
    Indeed, I would not take China's word when it comes to anything that could paint them in remotely bad light because what people need to understand is that it is not China doing the reporting, but the Chinese Communist Party.

    Adding onto your second point:
    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Not really. It just means people with preexisting conditions wouldn't be counted. Wouldn't make a difference in the real rate, just the reported rates. If you say 10% of 10000 victims are under 50, but it turns out you didn't count 2500 80 year olds with problems, that becomes 1000 victims out of 12500, which is 8%. So leaving out older people with other conditions would actually cause inflation of numbers for others.
    China's idea of healthcare is far different from our own as well, with far different standards and accessibility that varies much more than the United States.

    So on top of dodgy records and the likelihood that they are fudging number, China's own healthcare system and economic disparity would be additional detriments affecting the true numbers. China also happens to be enormous with population density that is perfect for transmitting diseases.

    India shares similar issues - poor healthcare and sanitation alongside high population density - that is contributing to their own rapid spread of the virus.
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Ofc he wants to find a drug...but the chances of finding a good drug are pretty slim. I doubt aminoquinolines even really work effectively vs this virus after infection. By the time people are sick, it is probably too late. Anyway, John Doe will be getting deliveries and possibly food bank help from the national guard. If he can't sit for a few weeks, he should be shot. Most Americans can easily survive one week or even a month without food. Nobody is turning the water off. We're fine.
    just look at this forum and look outside, most people that live in North America have the self control of a 3 year old. People in main misc ready to riot because the public gyms are closed. Many users here said **** the older people and they should die because they are useless.

    We are doomed
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    Originally Posted by AlwaysFocus View Post
    just look at this forum and look outside, most people that live in North America have the self control of a 3 year old. People in main misc ready to riot because the public gyms are closed. Many users here said **** the older people and they should die because they are useless.

    We are doomed
    If they don't stay in, then my estimate of 1M won't be that far off...
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    Originally Posted by gregxy View Post
    Correct. Italy is also flattening despite its healthcare system being overloaded.
    Now it's either a) the social distancing is working or b) the virus is running out of people to infect.

    Did you see the paper where they found 6% of healthcare workers in Holland were infected with CV
    back in early March? They thought it was the flu and went to work anyway!
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....23.20041913v1
    These were symptomatic cases, so the true number is probably > 10%

    The most logical explanation is CV has been spreading for a long time but has been confused with colds
    and flu. Its now running out of gas.

    My guess is Ro > 3 and IFR ~= 0.025%

    If its airborne like measles no amount of social distancing will work, and certainly not the limited
    social distancing being done now.
    I went to Lowe's today and it was PACKED. Nobody cares about this virus.
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    Originally Posted by AlwaysFocus View Post
    just look at this forum and look outside, most people that live in North America have the self control of a 3 year old. People in main misc ready to riot because the public gyms are closed. Many users here said **** the older people and they should die because they are useless.

    We are doomed
    Not only are people are selfish idiots, they don't realise that once the hospitals start to become overwhelmed it will affect them too. For example a young person involved in a road traffic accident who would have normally survived, will now die due to a lack of hospital beds.
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    Pics of people waiting in line for anything doesn’t mean it’s for urns. And even if it is like stated they cremated everyone that died in the past 2 months and finally handing them out now.

    Inb4 more talk about the phones lol
    Bunch if sheep’s on this forum
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    Originally Posted by JoshSP1985 View Post
    I've heard some stories suggesting a lot of it was bot farms shutting down. There are bot farms that have hundreds/thousands of phones on racks on walls all plugged in etc.
    Lol, the phukkn Chinese.
    "The greatest feeling you can get in a gym, or the most satisfying feeling you can get in the gym is... The Pump. Let's say you train your biceps. Blood is rushing into your muscles and that's what we call The Pump. You muscles get a really tight feeling, like your skin is going to explode any minute, and it's really tight - it's like somebody blowing air into it, into your muscle. It just blows up, and it feels really different. It feels fantastic.
    It's as satisfying to me as, uh..."
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    Climate?
    are you saying that warm weather or cold kills the virus?
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    Originally Posted by iabs View Post
    Stop it dude, we will not have your claimed 1 million deaths in a month's time
    Expenential numbers. Look up how they work
    So much universe, so little time.
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    Originally Posted by Bigdumogre View Post
    Pics of people waiting in line for anything doesn’t mean it’s for urns. And even if it is like stated they cremated everyone that died in the past 2 months and finally handing them out now.

    Inb4 more talk about the phones lol
    Bunch if sheep’s on this forum
    You stupid pro-CCP kunt must be mad about the pro-Hong Kong democracy movement and Taiwan shaming China with its coronavirus response. Are you upset WHO is getting outed as CCP puppet when asked about Taiwan?
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    Originally Posted by chaunce54 View Post
    I went to Lowe's today and it was PACKED. Nobody cares about this virus.
    yikes
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    Really hope the CIA is stoking internal division (srs). Time for another warlord period.
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