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  1. #1
    Registered User Rad203's Avatar
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    The US will probably have around 15-20,000 deaths by early April

    Likely a similar trajectory in the UK as well. The reason for this is due to large amounts of people (more than the official amount) are already infected before the official lockdown on the 22nd.

    Further, symptoms can take up to a week to show, and those that need hospitalization will likely needs weeks of care. This will overload the health system in densely packed places like New York, which is becoming like Lombardy in Italy.

    By the 31st of March most likely it will be just over or under 1k people dying daily from coronavirus in the US. By early April that will be atleast 2-3k, where likely daily infections will peak and gradually decline.

    However if restrictions are lifted as Trump has proposed for Easter, (which is a terrible idea) it will lead to a massive resurgence in infections a few weeks later.

    15,000-20,000 deaths in the US alone by the 10th of April. Make me red if im wrong.

    This is arguably a bit fear mongery, but the reality is this is far worse than people realize (i even saw some miscers on r&p saying there will be only a few thousand dead in total). Governments arent taking such extreme measures for a joke, this disease unchecked could easily kill millions of people. Stay safe boyos.
    Last edited by Rad203; 03-26-2020 at 09:46 PM.
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    I'm not that bright phikappa's Avatar
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    The beatings will continue until morale improves.
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    We are at 1,300 deaths right now in the US. That would be a big jump to 15-20 thousand in early April. Damn I hope not.
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    Hypothetically speaking, if 20k coincides with the peak daily rate then it probably will never break 50k. Sorry but that's nothing for the amount of panic that's going on
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    Good, it's been getting a little crowded here lately.
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    It's just the flu

    Herd Immunity

    Let the weak and old die

    Trump has it in control
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  7. #7
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    I agree. Somewhere between 15 deaths and 20000 deaths.
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    Ny is really skewing the #s for the entire country
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    Registered User proteinsnake's Avatar
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    and if you take away those that were going to die in the next 2 years anyways that number goes down to about 10.
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  10. #10
    Registered User Rad203's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by WinningBrah View Post
    Hypothetically speaking, if 20k coincides with the peak daily rate then it probably will never break 50k. Sorry but that's nothing for the amount of panic that's going on
    Its harder to predict if total deaths will pass 50k overall by say the beginning of May (for example), because it rests on the actual effectiveness of the lockdown.

    The deaths and new infections occurring now are the result of unrestricted infections Pre-lockdown.

    If the lockdown is like 98% effective at reducing spread, yes 50k wont likely be reached by any margin in the US.

    If its much weaker effectiveness however, and total infections do not decrease, it will rise considerably more.
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  11. #11
    Registered User dontstopbelief's Avatar
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    still less than annual flu deaths, lol.
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  12. #12
    Worst body on the misc jesusxchrist's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by dontstopbelief View Post
    still less than annual flu deaths, lol.
    Go lick a toilet seat and then report back
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  13. #13
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    that's it?
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  14. #14
    I'm not that bright phikappa's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by dontstopbelief View Post
    still less than annual flu deaths, lol.
    The beatings will continue until morale improves.
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  15. #15
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    Originally Posted by phikappa View Post
    Saw your source was from Vox and my bull**** detector immediately went into overdrive.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-age-group/

    30% hospitalization rate? Yeah, if you're over 65 years old. Never use Vox as reference, they are total trash.
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    Pedicabo ego vos et irrum A-GAME's Avatar
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    I have a great idea.....Let's destroy the entire worlds economy, surely that will save us!
    President Trump is 73 and doesn't wear glasses. Wanna know why? Because he's got 2020....
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  17. #17
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    not sure if true or not but lol @ vox ^^
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  18. #18
    Registered User Rad203's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by coolbones View Post
    Saw your source was from Vox and my bull**** detector immediately went into overdrive.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-age-group/

    30% hospitalization rate? Yeah, if you're over 65 years old. Never use Vox as reference, they are total trash.
    Its hospitalization of reported cases for all age groups obviously, i dont see how that detracks from the point which is its highly more dangerous to the population at large than the Flu. When you have patients bedridden for weeks, and 1000s more needing medical attention each day, it will inevitably lead to lot of people dying as a result of hospitals being overwhelmed with the sick.
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  19. #19
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    Originally Posted by DDSF1 View Post
    We are at 1,300 deaths right now in the US. That would be a big jump to 15-20 thousand in early April. Damn I hope not.
    That's how exponentials work mr lawyer man.
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    Better than you DDSF1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    That's how exponentials work mr lawyer man.
    Thank you wincel, yes that is how exponentials work.

    I am hoping that we do not see those kind of numbers though. That is the point.
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  21. #21
    Registered User Rad203's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by A-GAME View Post
    I have a great idea.....Let's destroy the entire worlds economy, surely that will save us!
    So would you rather millions potentially die? As that will probably happen if we leave the whole thing unchecked.
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    Originally Posted by bongowongo View Post
    It's just the flu

    Herd Immunity

    Let the weak and old die

    Trump has it in control

    If those death estimates are right that would put it in flu numbers


    Almost everyone would consider it a win if we get to May and less than 15k are dead
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  23. #23
    Registered User Rad203's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by meanstringbean View Post
    If those death estimates are right that would put it in flu numbers


    Almost everyone would consider it a win if we get to May and less than 15k are dead
    It will be much more than 15,000 by May. When i said it will be at 15k-20k in april deaths will continue in the thousands for a few weeks at a high level if the lockdown is still in place.
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    Originally Posted by DDSF1 View Post
    Thank you wincel, yes that is how exponentials work.

    I am hoping that we do not see those kind of numbers though. That is the point.
    you and everyone else but hope won't stop this fuking virus
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    you and everyone else but hope won't stop this fuking virus
    Ok, you convinced me, I’ll stop hoping for less death.
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    Originally Posted by DDSF1 View Post
    Ok, you convinced me, I’ll stop hoping for less death.
    how did u pass the lsat being this much of a fuking retard?
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  27. #27
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    Originally Posted by DDSF1 View Post
    Ok, you convinced me, I’ll stop hoping for less death.
    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    how did u pass the lsat being this much of a fuking retard?
    I'd normally say you two phaggots should get a room, but with the social distancing and all maybe just sext for the time being till you can meet and make love in person. It's pretty cute guys, best of luck to you both. Live love laugh in this 21st century tech life
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  28. #28
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    Originally Posted by PisseninMisc View Post
    I'd normally say you two phaggots should get a room, but with the social distancing and all maybe just sext for the time being till you can meet and make love in person. It's pretty cute guys, best of luck to you both. Live love laugh in this 21st century tech life
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  29. #29
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    how did u pass the lsat being this much of a fuking retard?
    No STEM in the LSAT what do u expect
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    Originally Posted by anonkunbrah View Post
    No STEM in the LSAT what do u expect
    ya but it requires some basic logic
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