View Poll Results: How many USA covid deaths on May 1

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  • Less than 2,000

    20 7.46%
  • 2,000 - 20,000

    88 32.84%
  • 20,001 - 50,000

    71 26.49%
  • 50,001 - 150,000

    55 20.52%
  • 150,001 - 300,000

    12 4.48%
  • More than 300K

    22 8.21%
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  1. #331
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    Originally Posted by Reliance012 View Post
    Not really. If by “bad” you mean drug resistant or vaccine evasion, sure, but we haven’t put those selective pressures on yet. At this point in time there’s nothing that will favor an inherently more virulent strain if that mutation arises. In fact, it’s just the opposite. More benign strains will likely be favored.
    I mean relative to the probability up to now. The probability of a bad one will escalate due to the larger number of infected as we progress. You are correct that the probability of a benign mutation or one that perhaps aids in spread is more likely to persist.
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  2. #332
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Coronavirus is considerably more lethal than flu, manlet.
    yes 0.1% vs somewhere less than 1% mortality rate. Now let's destroy our economy!
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  3. #333
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Most of the worst will be done by mid May. This type of growth can't be sustained for too long. But a couple of things to watch out for:

    -mutations
    -persistent retards spreading the infection to previously isolated people

    This will cause more havoc and suffering..
    Doubtful we will be past the worst by May. We will be past the worst when either a vaccine or herd immunity is reached, neither will happen by May. If we slow the spread with quarantine, but haven't reached vaccine or herd immunity, the minute social distancing is relaxed, it will surge again.
    Originally Posted by dannyg1217 View Post
    yes 0.1% vs somewhere less than 1% mortality rate. Now let's destroy our economy!
    that's with medical capacity not maxed out.

    When medical capacity is surpassed, the case fatality rate is between 5-10%
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  4. #334
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    When medical capacity is surpassed, the case fatality rate is between 5-10%
    We have no intelligence on that.
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  5. #335
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    I stand by an estimate of 20,000 max, but likely lower by May 1.

    At the moment, I don't have a whole lot of faith in the predictions because I think they are lacking crucial information. I would have more confidence in the predictions if there was more general testing. Most, if not all, of the testing is being done to people who are sick. They should take a sample of 500 random people from NY to get a better idea of how many people have it with little or no symptoms. It will provide a more accurate morality rate. An antibody blood test would help even more to figure out how many recovered on their own.

    We'll see what happens.

    For context of the current numbers:

    About 2500 Americans have died of Covid since January.
    About 15000 Americans have died of the flu since January.

    I will gladly admit I was wrong in a month if that is the case and I hope you gloating doomsday mathcels will do the same.
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  6. #336
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    Originally Posted by Dorich View Post
    We have no intelligence on that.
    Italy is 11% now
    Spain is at 8.5%

    Both are rising daily
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  7. #337
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    Also, let's never qualify Richard Epstein again.

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  8. #338
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    Italy is 11% now
    Spain is at 8.5%

    Both are rising daily
    Lmao
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  9. #339
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    Italy is 11% now
    Spain is at 8.5%

    Both are rising daily
    I will say here, the numbers aren't really that high. There's going to be a lot of mild cases that aren't being recorded. If we really had a virus with a 10% kill rate and a similar R0 to COVID19, we'd be well and truly ****ed, apocalypse scenario.
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  10. #340
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    Originally Posted by isingmodel View Post
    I will say here, the numbers aren't really that high. There's going to be a lot of mild cases that aren't being recorded. If we really had a virus with a 10% kill rate and a similar R0 to COVID19, we'd be well and truly ****ed, apocalypse scenario.
    Yeah agree but in terms of predicting deaths in the US in the case of an overwhelmed system, these rates are somewhat useful because in both cases we're dealing with "of those we know have COVID".

    Proper statistical analysis is going to have wait until the dust settles anyway and some things we will never know.
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  11. #341
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    Originally Posted by isingmodel View Post
    I will say here, the numbers aren't really that high. There's going to be a lot of mild cases that aren't being recorded. If we really had a virus with a 10% kill rate and a similar R0 to COVID19, we'd be well and truly ****ed, apocalypse scenario.
    look at it this way. If you get covid seriously enough to need hospitalization, in Italy you have higher than a 1 in 9 chance of dying


    US numbers may not get that high, but they sure won't be 1% either. Hospital capacity is not infinite and the outbreak won't be every balanced in all areas. Some local hospitals might hit 10% or more once this thing really hits the fan.
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  12. #342
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    Originally Posted by Dave22reborn View Post
    Maybe 3,000. 99.9% of them will be the elderly who were in the verge of death before they were infected.
    It truly is unbelievable how stupid people can be lmao
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  13. #343
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    Originally Posted by FoxMcCocks View Post
    It truly is unbelievable how stupid people can be lmao
    Dave22 is well known around these parts for that
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  14. #344
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    So can we officially declare just the flu crew as dead?
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  15. #345
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    So can we officially declare just the flu crew as dead?
    Is the Venn diagram of “it’s just the flu” crew and Trump supporters a perfect circle?

    Imagine being so obsessed with a man that you downplay the severity of a global pandemic because he told you so
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  16. #346
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    Originally Posted by FoxMcCocks View Post
    Is the Venn diagram of “it’s just the flu” crew and Trump supporters a perfect circle?

    Imagine being so obsessed with a man that you downplay the severity of a global pandemic because he told you so
    In some of their defence I've seen a fair few Trumpers and right leaning posters in general on here taking COVID seriously from the beginning. Although the retards calling it just a flu are always Trumpers.
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  17. #347
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    Originally Posted by dannyg1217 View Post
    CDC estimates there to be up to 60k deaths from flu this season. Just to put this panic in perspective.
    Who the fuk knows with any current model of the Coronavirus but going by the 100-200K with all the direct government aid, social distancing, Trump enacting wartime powers, etc — this shows how it puts the flu to shame.

    People are kind of mindful of the flu, 60k deaths, here with all this it’s still predicted to do more. If society went about covid like they did with the flu it could be those 1/2million to 2mil doomsday predictions.
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  18. #348
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    Originally Posted by JUSA View Post
    Who the fuk knows with any current model of the Coronavirus but going by the 100-200K with all the direct government aid, social distancing, Trump enacting wartime powers, etc — this shows how it puts the flu to shame.

    People are kind of mindful of the flu, 60k deaths, here with all this it’s still predicted to do more. If society went about covid like they did with the flu it could be those 1/2million to 2mil doomsday predictions.
    And the other thing people miss is that COVID deaths are in the majority of cases going to be additional deaths on top of existing endemic flu deaths. It's not like flu deaths are being substituted and so we're not much worse off.

    When you already have hospitals operating near max capacity and then throw in possibly hundreds of thousands of additional deaths from a highly infectious disease, then you are fukked. The logic is just unbearably stupid.
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  19. #349
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    If the prediction models are right, the low end around 25,000 and the high end 55,000. If it's over 100k+ by May it's gonna get real ugly.
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  20. #350
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  21. #351
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    Originally Posted by Burgerbuger View Post
    If the prediction models are right, the low end around 25,000 and the high end 55,000. If it's over 100k+ by May it's gonna get real ugly.
    we wouldn't even notice 100k in this country if the MSM didn't make it the top story.
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    Originally Posted by FoxMcCocks View Post
    Is the Venn diagram of “it’s just the flu” crew and Trump supporters a perfect circle?

    Imagine being so obsessed with a man that you downplay the severity of a global pandemic because he told you so
    Yep. Books will be written about the complete and total control this moron exerted over other people. Everything is fake unless he tells them different. His lies are their truths.

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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    we wouldn't even notice 100k in this country if the MSM didn't make it the top story.
    We noticed 9/11. Why do you believe we wouldn't notice an event so many times more devastating?
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    We noticed 9/11. Why do you believe we wouldn't notice an event so many times more devastating?
    Well we don't seem to take cardiovascular health very seriously....
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    Originally Posted by ImpressiveGainz View Post
    Go **** yourself, retard. Seriously. Reveling in death...
    Originally Posted by ImpressiveGainz View Post
    As long as they're all in Seattle, Portland, and San Fransisco, I'm okay with that.
    You are the one who’s ok with people being killed as long as they are in Seattle, Portland, or San Francisco. You are the lowest of the low and a hypocrite.
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    We noticed 9/11. Why do you believe we wouldn't notice an event so many times more devastating?
    Not trying to downplay the severity of deaths, but did you notice the 80k who died from the flu a couple winters ago?
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    You on the far right worship Trump now but Trump is not reopening things immediately and not calling this a hoax anymore. I expect within a decade you’ll drop Trump and find someone even more extreme to worship.
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    Originally Posted by gwg77 View Post
    Not trying to downplay the severity of deaths, but did you notice the 80k who died from the flu a couple winters ago?
    Those people are still going to die. In fact, more will die from the flu as well because there won't be hospitals available to treat people. Distancing will help a bit, but overall, you will see more die due to not having treatment available. Ditto for other situations, such as trauma. Do you see the problem now? The flu does have an impact on our economy, but the current virus is many times more deadly than flu. The tragedy people hope to avoid is the collapse of the healthcare system.

    If we took no distancing measures and allowed people to continue working, it would probably exceed 2 to 3 mil US deaths from virus. This would collapse the entire healthcare system and lead to more deaths as well from other treatable issues. It would collapse our economy far worse than if we practice distancing.

    I'll also remind everyone that while the lock down is murdering the economy, it was not what caused the collapse. The collapse happened because Saudi Arabia flooded the market and tanked oil. We are in a classic liquidity trap situation. It would have been bad with or without the virus.

    The global economy is already fuked and that is why everyone is choosing distancing as the solution. It's not like people in the CDC etc are emotional about this. Look at Russia and India. Do you think they give a fuk? Do you think China gives a fuk? It's not because people are emo and want to save lives. It's because it is the best possible alternative here. Everyone wants to save their economy, but distancing is the best way to do it.
    Last edited by wincel; 03-30-2020 at 04:36 AM.
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Those people are still going to die. In fact, more will die from the flu as well because there won't be hospitals available to treat people. Distancing will help a bit, but overall, you will see more die due to not having treatment available. Ditto for other situations, such as trauma. Do you see the problem now? The flu does have an impact on our economy, but the current virus is many times more deadly than flu. The tragedy people hope to avoid is the collapse of the healthcare system.
    I am well aware of the problem, you don't have to explain it to me. I'm just reinforcing the point that Cleveland made.
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  30. #360
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    Going with 20-50k.

    If we don't get actual "deaths by covid19" we'll still have extra hundreds/thousands of deaths that are caused by people being unable to get proper medical care due to most medical personnel stuck dealing with covid19 patients, and/or being infected by the virus itself.
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