Poll incoming...
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View Poll Results: How many USA covid deaths on May 1
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03-26-2020, 10:07 AM #1
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03-26-2020, 10:08 AM #2
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03-26-2020, 10:09 AM #3
Aggressive, aggressively low prediction at that, although I predict your prediction will end up being closer than some of the more dire ones being bandied about.
A fun bb.com option would be an Auto-Bump option on a certain date, such as 5/1 here, but hopefully I or someone recalls to do this - assuming some of the more outspoken people put their opinions where their keyboard where their mouth is and actually vote.
For the record, I voted 2-20K, probably somewhere in the middle but policy-wise I think with human lives you err on the side of caution and haven't been against most of the quarantining thus far for the most part. Here, end of March, I'm starting to think people not at risk or who have already known for sure to have gotten and recovered from it, those types need to intelligently think strongly about being allowed to re-enter the workforce. Maintaining social distancing when possible, not doing anything elective that might expose them, etc..All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
- Arthur Schopenhauer
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03-26-2020, 10:13 AM #4
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Well, considering the "other" flu has taken out over 20K and I believe (??) we actually have a vaccine for it, I guessed the upper range.
Really, really hope I'm wrong.* Trad Archery Crew
If you allow the Govt to break the law because of an emergency, they will always create an emergency to break the law
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03-26-2020, 10:15 AM #5
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03-26-2020, 10:15 AM #6
Less than 5k but it's going to be hard to get the real number because a lot of flu related deaths will be lumped in with the covid number.
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Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote. -Benjamin Franklin
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03-26-2020, 10:17 AM #7
Depends very much on government policy and where the actual peak turns out to be (could be now, could be in six weeks)
I'd go with the middle of the range. But nothing would please me more to be totally wrong and Dave correctGymnastics / Oly Lifting / BJJ / Kickboxing /
*~UK Brah~*
If there's a light at the end of the tunnel, it's a train coming in the other direction
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03-26-2020, 10:18 AM #8
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03-26-2020, 10:19 AM #9
Keep in mind I said 5/1, which isn't likely to be even close to the ending date of this, even I won't hazard a guess on how long this one is out there spreading about. All the current social distancing/quarantining are (intentionally) lengthening the time frame there, so that the medical system isn't run over by a rush at any given time, hopefully. Honestly, I think it could be going on as long as end of year and the end death toll will probably far outpace the 20k Flu by a good margin, simply because it is likely deadlier, it does spread easier and there is no herd immunity or current vaccine.
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
- Arthur Schopenhauer
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03-26-2020, 10:21 AM #10
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03-26-2020, 10:25 AM #11
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03-26-2020, 10:36 AM #12
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03-26-2020, 10:40 AM #13
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03-26-2020, 10:43 AM #14
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03-26-2020, 10:47 AM #15
We'll see. Wonder what Italy will be like on 5/1, which is a good barometer for 'doing nothing', if you round out their initial utter failure and only doing anything after it had already gotten out of control and overtaxed their weak healthcare infrastructure.
They have a smaller population, but if it's around 20-25K by May 1, perhaps your 100K prediction might hold some water (although who knows, they seem to be completely out of control, it's probably unreasonable to draw any kind of parallel to them in any capacity)All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
- Arthur Schopenhauer
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03-26-2020, 10:51 AM #16
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03-26-2020, 10:51 AM #17
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03-26-2020, 10:53 AM #18
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03-26-2020, 10:55 AM #19
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03-26-2020, 10:55 AM #20
Somewhere between 5-10k is where my head is. I know this thing can spread like wildfire and I know Americans are generally useless (my company for instance is still calling ourselves "essential" by some loose definition of what it is we provide) but I just don't see it going much further beyond that. The largest majority (60%+) of those deaths will be those over 60+ and then that would likely expand to 75% if you include people with pre-existing conditions (auto-immune disorders, asthma, etc.).
Hopefully I'm shooting high and the number is lower but for now I think that's a solid estimate.***Mariah Carey is my 10/10 Crew***
***Misc Dads Crew***
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03-26-2020, 10:56 AM #21
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03-26-2020, 10:57 AM #22
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03-26-2020, 10:57 AM #23
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03-26-2020, 10:59 AM #24
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03-26-2020, 10:59 AM #25
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03-26-2020, 11:01 AM #26
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03-26-2020, 11:02 AM #27
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03-26-2020, 11:02 AM #28
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03-26-2020, 11:02 AM #29
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03-26-2020, 11:03 AM #30
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