How many USA Coronavirus deaths by 5/1?

[z4v4]

UPDATE: I'm revising that upwards significantly-



4,900 total deaths April 1st

14,000 total deaths April 7th

peak deaths/day April 14th @ 2,300 deaths/day

61,000 deaths May 1st

business and life outside of healthcare getting back to normal - UNKNOWN

virus mostly gone in the US by mid-June and gone in July

Wtf contest are you trying to win, son? Morbid fukks itt...

[LukeLissen]

Wtf contest are you trying to win, son? Morbid fukks itt...

There's nothing morbid or evil about it.

Understanding predictions and projections is important in dealing with a crisis like this - from the international all the way down to the personal level.

It's not about winning a contest at all. It's about trying to help myself understand it all and maybe to help others understand what to expect.

You do understand the WHO, CDC, and many NGO's and others are busy trying to forecast how this pandemic will unfold. It's extremely important to be able to do that as accurately as possible for a variety of reasons.

Also I've got many years in health care, both emergency and inpatient nursing and as an ER tech before I became a nurse and have seen hundreds of people die so it's probably a little more mundane of a subject to me than it might be to those who haven't experienced that.

[z4v4]

There's nothing morbid or evil about it.

Understanding predictions and projections is important in dealing with a crisis like this - from the international all the way down to the personal level.

It's not about winning a contest at all. It's about trying to help myself understand it all and maybe to help others understand what to expect.

You do understand the WHO, CDC, and many NGO's and others are busy trying to forecast how this pandemic will unfold. It's extremely important to be able to do that as accurately as possible for a variety of reasons.

Also I've got many years in health care, both emergency and inpatient nursing and have seen hundreds of people die so it's probably a little more mundane of a subject to me than it might be to those who haven't experienced that.

Christ, son, you're not from the CDC using science and mathematical models to project infection and death rates. Your input on this matter here = zero, son, sorry.

[TrinnieBuu]

Christ, son, you're not from the CDC using science and mathematical models to project infection and death rates. Your input on this matter here = zero, son, sorry.

Well the OP literally asked for prediction on how many deaths. And I didn’t see anywhere that lukelissen is not allowed to post his input.

[z4v4]

Well the OP literally asked for prediction on how many deaths. And I didn’t see anywhere that lukelissen is not allowed to post his input.

Already addressed the well-known scumbag OP, son.

[Dave22reborn]

Already addressed the well-known scumbag OP, son.

You sure did, Bitch.

[z4v4]

You sure did, Bitch.

Go have another doughnut, son. Just have another pant size bigger ready for when you're back at work a month from now, son.

[Dave22reborn]

Go have another doughnut, son. Just have another pant size bigger ready for when you're back at work a month from now, son.

I'm on a cut right now bitch, it's important to be healthy, especially with this virus going around. I'm sure you're stuffing your face with boredom and watching Netflix all day.

Also a 30 inch waist in the cargo pants at 180lbs.

[wincel]

I'm on a cut right now bitch, it's important to be healthy, especially with this virus going around. I'm sure you're stuffing your face with boredom and watching Netflix all day.

Also a 30 inch waist in the cargo pants at 180lbs.

fuking lol worst time to cut bro

bloatmax for life

[z4v4]

I'm on a cut right now bitch, it's important to be healthy, especially with this virus going around. I'm sure you're stuffing your face with boredom and watching Netflix all day.

Also a 30 inch waist in the cargo pants at 180lbs.

You wear cargo pants? Do you still listen to 90's grunge, son? Da fukk? Lmao...

[Dave22reborn]

You wear cargo pants? Do you still listen to 90's grunge, son? Da fukk? Lmao...

They're police cargo pants bitch. Most cops wear them.

[Dave22reborn]

fuking lol worst time to cut bro

bloatmax for life

Actually right now is when you should be eating healthy, might want to increase those vegetables guy.

[wincel]

Actually right now is when you should be eating healthy, might want to increase those vegetables guy.

bloatmaxing helps u survive illnesses

[z4v4]

They're police cargo pants bitch. Most cops wear them.

Ah, well, I guess that settles it then: you must be a cop, son.

[Dave22reborn]

bloatmaxing helps u survive illnesses

Obese people are more likely to get the virus, look it up.

[wincel]

Obese people are more likely to get the virus, look it up.

So don't be obese. Just bloat.

[HoganIsGOAT]

The US has the best healthcare system in the world...

“The best”

A California teenager who died last week, possibly from coronavirus, was turned away from an urgent care because he lacked health insurance.

Lancaster Mayor R. Rex Parris said in a video that the 17-year-old had no previous health conditions and was healthy Friday, socializing with friends, before he passed away Wednesday.

"Wednesday, he had gone to an urgent care," he said. "He didn't have insurance, so they did not treat him."

Parris said the teen was sent to the hospital but went into cardiac arrest on the way and died. He was briefly revived, but ultimately passed away.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...rgent-care-due

[z4v4]

Obese people are more likely to get the virus, look it up.

You're worried about a cheat week at 170 lbs, 26" waist, 6' 4" height, son?

[gachase21]

“The best”

A California teenager who died last week, possibly from coronavirus, was turned away from an urgent care because he lacked health insurance.

Lancaster Mayor R. Rex Parris said in a video that the 17-year-old had no previous health conditions and was healthy Friday, socializing with friends, before he passed away Wednesday.

"Wednesday, he had gone to an urgent care," he said. "He didn't have insurance, so they did not treat him."

Parris said the teen was sent to the hospital but went into cardiac arrest on the way and died. He was briefly revived, but ultimately passed away.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...rgent-care-due

Los Angeles County said a 17-year-old was the youngest US victim of COVID-19. Then it backtracked on the diagnosis.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...or-says-2020-3

LA County pulls back on linking Lancaster teen’s death to coronavirus

“The case is complex and there may be an alternate explanation for this fatality,” the statement said. “Patient privacy prevents our offering further details at this time.”

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/03/25...o-coronavirus/

[HoganIsGOAT]

“The case is complex and there may be an alternate explanation for this fatality,” the statement said. “Patient privacy prevents our offering further details at this time.”

So your argument is our healthcare system is the best because he may have died of something other than COVID-19 while being denied care due to not having insurance?

Talk about missing the point lol.

[A-GAME]

XterraRob whoever you are, the user ImpressiveGainz is a moron and deserved to be called a moron. What a snowflake you are.

You're a red sausage sucker that likes sucking sausages.

[wincel]

tour's over for 2kcels pretty soon. 20kcels on chopping block next couple of weeks.

[wincel]

Why do you hate Israel?

this is absurd

[fthungry]

I'm sorry but we have standards to uphold here.

There’s clearly no standards because you’re posting.

[fthungry]

You're a red sausage sucker that likes sucking sausages.

Why are you even allowed to post?

[fthungry]

We're at what, ~600 deaths now, if that number is even accurate. I don't think it'll be much over 1k, honestly, and everyone who does die will be really old or have some condition that would cause them to die if they got a cold.

Are we counting the morons who self-suicide by fish cleaner?

You deserve moron of the decade for your ignorant posts.

[JUSA]

Deaths around 1,700 today, and in Wincel's defense (or rather defending his ideas about exponential growth), the growth rate is increasing daily it seems. I don't agree with him, I'll explain more in detail why in a second, but ignoring his position simply because of his many personal flaws isn't quite right at this point (or, honestly at any point before either).

To try and explain his position, or at least as I understood it, the daily deaths are going to increase. Maybe it was only a handful yesterday or the day before, but if it increases by 100 every day, that's cumulative, every day it's more on top of the already growing number. And then, maybe it's not 100 more every day, it's more and more and more, at some point it's 1,000 or 1,000s more every day than the day before. If that never slows down or peaks, or only does so after massive growth, then the numbers would be huge.

Now, I still do not think that is the case and I hope I am right. I think while there is still a lot of room for potential growth of the spread (millions and millions who haven't been exposed who are targets), I think our leadership has taken a lot of steps, that despite there being a lot of dumb (mostly young) kids ignoring social distancing that widely overall people have taken it seriously and I also have a lot of faith in this country and it's people to pull together. Trump has enacted wartime powers to push production of ventilators, something like 1/2 a million volunteers stood up and such. I also don't see our situation anything like Italy, who had awful leadership, a weak infrastructure teetering on collapse anyway and a lot less faith in their people to come together vs. Americans (sorry, I think this country has proven time and time again we're made of sterner stuff, particularly when compared to Italy at least).

I think the biggest drawback we have right now isn't our leadership, whether it's Trump or most Democrats, our medical foundation or our people, but the media who seems actively working against everyone's best interest, actively sucking China's dick, actively censoring in strange ways and actively trying to politicize this in a time when we need to come together.

[wincel]

Deaths around 1,700 today, and in Wincel's defense (or rather defending his ideas about exponential growth), the growth rate is increasing daily it seems. I don't agree with him, I'll explain more in detail why in a second, but ignoring his position simply because of his many personal flaws isn't quite right at this point (or, honestly at any point before either).

To try and explain his position, or at least as I understood it, the daily deaths are going to increase. Maybe it was only a handful yesterday or the day before, but if it increases by 100 every day, that's cumulative, every day it's more on top of the already growing number. And then, maybe it's not 100 more every day, it's more and more and more, at some point it's 1,000 or 1,000s more every day than the day before. If that never slows down or peaks, or only does so after massive growth, then the numbers would be huge.

Now, I still do not think that is the case and I hope I am right. I think while there is still a lot of room for potential growth of the spread (millions and millions who haven't been exposed who are targets), I think our leadership has taken a lot of steps, that despite there being a lot of dumb (mostly young) kids ignoring social distancing that widely overall people have taken it seriously and I also have a lot of faith in this country and it's people to pull together. Trump has enacted wartime powers to push production of ventilators, something like 1/2 a million volunteers stood up and such. I also don't see our situation anything like Italy, who had awful leadership, a weak infrastructure teetering on collapse anyway and a lot less faith in their people to come together vs. Americans (sorry, I think this country has proven time and time again we're made of sterner stuff, particularly when compared to Italy at least).

I think the biggest drawback we have right now isn't our leadership, whether it's Trump or most Democrats, our medical foundation or our people, but the media who seems actively working against everyone's best interest, actively sucking China's dick, actively censoring in strange ways and actively trying to politicize this in a time when we need to come together.

The reason it ought to be exponential early is simple. The rate of new infected ought to be proportional to the amount already infected because infected spread the disease. There is a whole suite of models called SIR in epidemiology to analyze the spread of disease. The total infected curve will look like a logistic curve.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

When we are far from the carrying capacity, the growth will look purely exponential. Pne great thing about all this is how sensitive the entire thing is to infection probability. If we all practice the quarantine, we can really keep the death toll down. But if we jack up the growth factor by suspending it too early, my million estimate won't be too far off.

I am glad Trump is taking this seriously. We may yet get through this losing a lot fewer if everyone follows the protocols.

[wincel]

Here. Watch this video.



As you can see, the estimates are very sensitive to changes in the growth factor. We can really reduce the spread by staying in. Social distancing and quarantine will work if we are all vigilant. If 10% of the people are retarded and Trump uses the wrong rhetoric, we're fuked tho.

[JoshSP1985]

Here. Watch this video.



As you can see, the estimates are very sensitive to changes in the growth factor. We can really reduce the spread by staying in. Social distancing and quarantine will work if we are all vigilant. If 10% of the people are retarded and Trump uses the wrong rhetoric, we're fuked tho.

I assume at least 75% of people in encounter day to day are retarded.... so