View Poll Results: How many USA covid deaths on May 1

Voters
268. You may not vote on this poll
  • Less than 2,000

    20 7.46%
  • 2,000 - 20,000

    88 32.84%
  • 20,001 - 50,000

    71 26.49%
  • 50,001 - 150,000

    55 20.52%
  • 150,001 - 300,000

    12 4.48%
  • More than 300K

    22 8.21%
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  1. #391
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    Originally Posted by GaloisTheory View Post
    You're taking it the wrong way. It's less about being wrong and more about you being so wrong that it's clear you don't have the slightest grasp of what's happening or even have a basic understanding of mathematics, meaning what Iceman said is correct: you're just sharting all over the forum.
    Okay, wincel. April 1st is tomorrow, we should be at what, 20k-30k deaths by now? We're at 3k. **** off with this crap.

    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    You are a science denying, hoping Americans get killed shill.

    SAD
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    you laugh but that is how exponential growth works...in fact at current rates, it would be like 50M, but the virus will obviously slow down at some point and run its course before that so I am estimating it will reach near its maximal death toll by may 1, probably 1-2 M americans will die...maybe more.

    There are 36 days from now until then. It looks from the graph to be multiplying by 2.5 every 3 days or so. So, you can see how fast it will explode.
    ...I can't do math? This is based on a model that was proven to be false. But CCP gonna CCP.
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  2. #392
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    Originally Posted by ImpressiveGainz View Post
    Can't even lie properly...plenty of libs on here hoping this gets out of control because it'll make Trump look bad. Phaggot.

    Yes, because I don't think this is as big a deal as the media is making it out to be, somehow I am denying science. The same "science" that cannot accurately predict anything because their assumptions are self-admittedly flawed. The same "science" that accepts the numbers coming out of China without question. The same "science" that shows people in a hospital and claims they both from Italy and NYC, simultaneously. You can call me stupid as much as you want, but you're just a ****ing CCP shill parroting the CNN narrative. Who said it was a hoax? No one. Who said it wasn't as bad as the media was making it out to be? I certainly, did, and if you honestly think 40k world-wide deaths somehow is equivalent to bubonic plague levels like the MSM is purporting, you're the idiot.

    "Science denier". How many genders are there again? Pathetic.
    there are two genders. “Have ye not read, that He that made them at the beginning made them male and female"

    your attempted pivot to attack what you believe I believe is a weak effort at best.

    you speak of things that you know nothing about and don't even expend the effort to educate yourself other than reading headlines from drudge report or the gateway pundit. you think the media is blowing this out of proportion? then why isn't your daddy trump opening up the country for easter like he said he was going to? he's never done what the media told him. think about it for a minute. maybe it is as serious as the experts say it is.



    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    Deaths doubled in two days boyos. Case fatality rate is also getting higher, now at 1.6%. And hospital systems aren't even hitting crisis capacity levels yet.

    A lot can happen in 30 days, but unfortunately we will easily hit 100,000. How much beyond that depends on the federal government response.
    Case fatality rate in the US is now at 2% (1.975 technically). And that's with more testing being done.
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  3. #393
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    Originally Posted by ImpressiveGainz View Post
    Okay, wincel. April 1st is tomorrow, we should be at what, 20k-30k deaths by now? We're at 3k. **** off with this crap.



    How many genders are there?



    ...I can't do math? This is based on a model that was proven to be false. But CCP gonna CCP.
    The model is just an exponential growth curve. It will obviously slow down at some point, but an exponential growth curve with a growth rate of ~20% at each interval is what the data has shown so far and is still continuing to follow. If you weren't legally retarded, you could just verify this yourself without needing to trust any of us. And then you wouldn't have made your retarded prediction.
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  4. #394
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    you laugh but that is how exponential growth works...in fact at current rates, it would be like 50M, but the virus will obviously slow down at some point and run its course before that so I am estimating it will reach near its maximal death toll by may 1, probably 1-2 M americans will die...maybe more.

    There are 36 days from now until then. It looks from the graph to be multiplying by 2.5 every 3 days or so. So, you can see how fast it will explode.
    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    there are two genders. “Have ye not read, that He that made them at the beginning made them male and female"

    your attempted pivot to attack what you believe I believe is a weak effort at best.

    you speak of things that you know nothing about and don't even expend the effort to educate yourself other than reading headlines from drudge report or the gateway pundit. you think the media is blowing this out of proportion? then why isn't your daddy trump opening up the country for easter like he said he was going to? he's never done what the media told him. think about it for a minute. maybe it is as serious as the experts say it is.





    Case fatality rate in the US is now at 2% (1.975 technically). And that's with more testing being done.
    Originally Posted by isingmodel View Post
    The model is just an exponential growth curve. It will obviously slow down at some point, but an exponential growth curve with a growth rate of ~20% at each interval is what the data has shown so far and is still continuing to follow. If you weren't legally retarded, you could just verify this yourself without needing to trust any of us. And then you wouldn't have made your retarded prediction.
    Quoted and literally did not read. At this point the CCP has taken over R/P.
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  5. #395
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    Originally Posted by ImpressiveGainz View Post
    Okay, wincel. April 1st is tomorrow, we should be at what, 20k-30k deaths by now? We're at 3k. **** off with this crap.



    How many genders are there?



    ...I can't do math? This is based on a model that was proven to be false. But CCP gonna CCP.
    Good lord you people are a disaster. That's the best you've got, how many genders are there? Meanwhile over 50% of your party believes in a 6,000 year old book and would still be communicating via cans and strings were it not for liberals and science.

    I swear...SMH
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  6. #396
    Registered Troll ImpressiveGainz's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    Good lord you people are a disaster. That's the best you've got, how many genders are there? Meanwhile over 50% of your party believes in a 6,000 year old book and would still be communicating via cans and strings were it not for liberals and science.

    I swear...SMH
    Gonna put you on ignore for a while. Don't particularly care for the direct religious attack.
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  7. #397
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    Mods should probably lock the thread at this point, the discussion has turned into nothing but personal insults.
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  8. #398
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    we wouldn't even notice 100k in this country if the MSM didn't make it the top story.
    Except, I assume, for all the families/friends of that 100K. They'd probably notice.
    So much universe, so little time.
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  9. #399
    No Agony, No Bragony JUSA's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by kingmanaverage View Post
    Mods should probably lock the thread at this point, the discussion has turned into nothing but personal insults.
    Provided they unlocked it before May, as part of this thread's existence is to revisit these predictions. As for the name-calling, that's how all threads here operate. Rather than punish this thread, the individuals making the insults or breaking the rules should be the ones to suffer the consequences, IMO
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  10. #400
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    Originally Posted by Weightaholic View Post
    Except, I assume, for all the families/friends of that 100K. They'd probably notice.
    try to wrap your head around the larger concept.
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  11. #401
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    Dr. Birx said their top epidemiologists estimated the loss of life would be about 100,000 to 250,000 deaths with social distancing and about 1 million to 2.2 million deaths without social distancing.

    You will notice that these numbers are identical to the predictions made by the incredibly intelligent and really really really ridiculously good looking poster with a massive penis who goes by the name Wincel with whom I am in no way shape or form associated, and whose good name has been maligned by vicious trolls who sought to silence him because his speech threatened their political establishment.

    The poster, Wincel, will be remembered as being someone who was right about everything and yet brutally removed for his visionary ideas, much like your lord and savior, Jesus Christ. Perhaps one day, they will sing songs of Wincel's great sacrifice in attempting to bring enlightenment to this band of uncultured philistines that is the misc.
    Last edited by superlifter87; 03-31-2020 at 05:50 PM.
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  12. #402
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    Originally Posted by superlifter87 View Post
    Dr. Birx said their top epidemiologists estimated the loss of life would be about 100,000 to 250,000 deaths with social distancing and about 1 million to 2.2 million deaths without social distancing.

    You will notice that these numbers are identical to the predictions made by the incredibly intelligent and really really really ridiculously good looking poster with a massive penis who goes by the name Wincel with whom I am in no way shape or form associated, and whose good name has been maligned by vicious trolls who sought to silence him because his speech threatened their political establishment.

    The poster, Wincel, will be remembered as being someone who was right about everything and yet brutally removed for his visionary ideas, much like your lord and savior, Jesus Christ. Perhaps one day, they will sing songs of Wincel's great sacrifice to attempt to bring enlightenment to this band of uncultured philistines that is the misc.
    how long do we have to social distance to save that 1-2M lives?

    If it is longer than May 1st it isn't worth it.
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  13. #403
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    how long do we have to social distance to save that 1-2M lives?

    If it is longer than May 1st it isn't worth it.
    Perhaps until mid May or early June. By then, the virus will have mostly run its course. There would need to be a 2 week buffer between when death rates start to decline and when distancing is halted due to the incubation period.
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  14. #404
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    Originally Posted by superlifter87 View Post
    Perhaps until mid May or early June. By then, the virus will have mostly run its course. There would need to be a 2 week buffer between when death rates start to decline and when distancing is halted due to the incubation period.
    Early June is unacceptable. Start ordering extra body bags to prepare.
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  15. #405
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    Early June is unacceptable. Start ordering extra body bags to prepare.
    They are. The 100k-250k estimate is if everyone follows the distancing. If 10-15% of the people choose not to follow it, it will render the entire distancing project mostly irrelevant. This is why they strongly advised the President to change his rhetoric, and he complied.

    Understand that if you violate Trump's distancing orders, you are essentially dooming many of your fellow citizens to an awful death. Furthermore, these death estimates only apply to the virus itself and not secondary deaths due to lack of available healthcare. There would be many otherwise preventable deaths that would occur due to the collapse of the healthcare system.
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  16. #406
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    Originally Posted by superlifter87 View Post
    Perhaps until mid May or early June. By then, the virus will have mostly run its course. There would need to be a 2 week buffer between when death rates start to decline and when distancing is halted due to the incubation period.
    Why do you keep coming here? Why waste your time making a million accounts?

    You seem like you would be happier on a forum about math, physics, inevitable nuclear war, and not getting chicks. That's all you talk about anyways.
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    Originally Posted by FatBallz View Post
    Why do you keep coming here? Why waste your time making a million accounts?

    You seem like you would be happier on a forum about math, physics, inevitable nuclear war, and not getting chicks. That's all you talk about anyways.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. I am a new member who enjoys lifting weights and banging sloots. Me like barbell. Me very manly. Me closet homosexual. Me vote Republican.
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  18. #408
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    Originally Posted by superlifter87 View Post
    They are. The 100k-250k estimate is if everyone follows the distancing. If 10-15% of the people choose not to follow it, it will render the entire distancing project mostly irrelevant. This is why they strongly advised the President to change his rhetoric, and he complied.

    Understand that if you violate Trump's distancing orders, you are essentially dooming many of your fellow citizens to an awful death. Furthermore, these death estimates only apply to the virus itself and not secondary deaths due to lack of available healthcare. There would be many otherwise preventable deaths that would occur due to the collapse of the healthcare system.
    Ok so since we know there is exactly 0% chance that 100% of people will follow those rules, there will be a minimum of 1M deaths per Wincel.

    I am also 100% comfortable with that outcome.
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  19. #409
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    Originally Posted by superlifter87 View Post
    Dr. Birx said their top epidemiologists estimated the loss of life would be about 100,000 to 250,000 deaths with social distancing and about 1 million to 2.2 million deaths without social distancing.

    You will notice that these numbers are identical to the predictions made by the incredibly intelligent and really really really ridiculously good looking poster with a massive penis who goes by the name Wincel with whom I am in no way shape or form associated, and whose good name has been maligned by vicious trolls who sought to silence him because his speech threatened their political establishment.

    The poster, Wincel, will be remembered as being someone who was right about everything and yet brutally removed for his visionary ideas, much like your lord and savior, Jesus Christ. Perhaps one day, they will sing songs of Wincel's great sacrifice in attempting to bring enlightenment to this band of uncultured philistines that is the misc.

    You never made any predictions, wincel. You just spouted off the Imperial estimate of 1-2m and then spouted UW's 80k. And now you are spouting off Dr. Birx's 100-250k.

    Do you have any thoughts of your own that aren't regurgitated from someone else?
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    Ok so since we know there is exactly 0% chance that 100% of people will follow those rules, there will be a minimum of 1M deaths per Wincel.

    I am also 100% comfortable with that outcome.
    This is known as a strawman. It is where you falsely attribute a position to your opponent. There are many possibilities between 250k and 1M, depending on the degree the distancing is relaxed.
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    Originally Posted by superlifter87 View Post
    This is known as a strawman. It is where you falsely attribute a position to your opponent. There are many possibilities between 250k and 1M, depending on the degree the distancing is relaxed.
    you said if 10-15% of people don't follow the distancing it will make distancing irrelevant.

    Would you say 10-15% of people are currently following the distancing protocols? NOPE.
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    Originally Posted by gwg77 View Post
    You never made any predictions, wincel. You just spouted off the imperial data of 1-2m and then spouted UW's 80k. And now you are spouting off Dr. Birx's 100-250k.

    Do you have any thoughts of your own that aren't regurgitated from someone else?
    I am not Wincel, sir. I am just saying that the user, Wincel, waa shockingly right in his guess as he almost always is. Perhaps, it is Wincel's education that allows him to do this? Or perhaps he has magic virgin powers like that episode of Seinfeld. Who knows?
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    Originally Posted by Cleveland33 View Post
    you said if 10-15% of people don't follow the distancing it will make distancing irrelevant.

    Would you say 10-15% of people are currently following the distancing protocols? NOPE.
    Then perhaps you should pepper your angus, good sir.
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    Originally Posted by superlifter87 View Post
    I am not Wincel, sir. I am just saying that the user, Wincel, waa shockingly right in his guess as he almost always is. Perhaps, it is Wincel's education that allows him to do this? Or perhaps he has magic virgin powers like that episode of Seinfeld. Who knows?
    Wincel has never been correct here, that was one the things he was most known for.
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    Originally Posted by superlifter87 View Post
    Then perhaps you should pepper your angus, good sir.
    I am always prepared.
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    Obama had (at least) 18,000 deaths with Swineflu and liberals literally did not give a fuk. They kept worshipping their god Hussein and did not ever blame him for anything.

    Maybe this will surpass 18,000...but remember that liberals did not give a **** about swineflu deaths, they did not shut down the economy, they did not do away with civil liberties, they did not challenge their god Barak whatsoever...

    So it'll be interesting to see how liberals deal with this pandemic. They literally did not give a chit about swineflu, their media did not do any death counters,

    black man good, orange man bad....
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    Originally Posted by benedetto27 View Post
    Obama had (at least) 18,000 deaths with Swineflu and liberals literally did not give a fuk. They kept worshipping their god Hussein and did not ever blame him for anything.

    Maybe this will surpass 18,000...but remember that liberals did not give a **** about swineflu deaths, they did not shut down the economy, they did not do away with civil liberties, they did not challenge their god Barak whatsoever...

    So it'll be interesting to see how liberals deal with this pandemic. They literally did not give a chit about swineflu, their media did not do any death counters,

    black man good, orange man bad....
    Umm... wtf are you talking about? First of all the two pandemics are wildly different. There were a total of 4000 swine flu deaths in the USA over the course of 9 months. We have 3000 over the course of 9 weeks with COVID. So it’s a really weird comparison in the first place and I’m not sure why any Trump supporter would want to make it.

    Secondly, Obama declared it a public health emergency before a single person died.

    The WHO declared it a pandemic on June 6, 2009. https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/who/

    But Obama declared it a public health emergency on April 26, 2009. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov...nza-pandemic-0

    At the time it was considered overkill because there were only 20 confirmed cases of it in the country. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/world/27flu.html
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    Originally Posted by benedetto27 View Post
    Obama had (at least) 18,000 deaths with Swineflu and liberals literally did not give a fuk. They kept worshipping their god Hussein and did not ever blame him for anything.

    Maybe this will surpass 18,000...but remember that liberals did not give a **** about swineflu deaths, they did not shut down the economy, they did not do away with civil liberties, they did not challenge their god Barak whatsoever...

    So it'll be interesting to see how liberals deal with this pandemic. They literally did not give a chit about swineflu, their media did not do any death counters,

    black man good, orange man bad....
    orange fan mad

    Also your daddy Trump is on board with this shut down, how does your addled mind make sense of that?
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    We’re at 4,000 here April 1, sadly no joke there.

    As for Wincel, he can’t have his cake and eat it too. He said over 300,000 by May 1, social distancing protocols had already been in place. He can change his tune now to pretend he said 100-200k in total (meaning well beyond May 1) but that’s a new song from him. Real easy to be right when you just change your opinion and pretend.

    Me, I’m not a liar like him, I’m not a coward or pussy who shirks bans, either. I though the rate of deaths would not grow this quickly, I thought 7-9k by May 1 and it looks like I was wrong. It may still come in under 20k but that is only if the current trend of growth flatlines, which there is sadly no indication of that.

    Back to Wincel sucking again real quick, nice to see a leftist drop homophobic verbiage like he did up there. These people can only project.
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    Trump, Feb. 26: "This is a flu. This is like a flu."

    Trump, Mar. 31: "It's not the flu. It's vicious."
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