View Poll Results: How many USA covid deaths on May 1

Voters
268. You may not vote on this poll
  • Less than 2,000

    20 7.46%
  • 2,000 - 20,000

    88 32.84%
  • 20,001 - 50,000

    71 26.49%
  • 50,001 - 150,000

    55 20.52%
  • 150,001 - 300,000

    12 4.48%
  • More than 300K

    22 8.21%
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  1. #1111
    Anti-Circumcision JoshSP1985's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ghostfacedup View Post
    What? Isn't that less than the flu was last year?
    Theoretically based on estimates yes but we also don't attempt to battle the flu each year by destroying the economy.

    I still hold the position that this thing is about as dangerous as the flu.

    Think about how many people the flu kills and that's with vaccination and with herd immunity. A new virus entering the global sphere will have a bad year and then just kind of fold into the normal ebb and flow in following years.

    I think we should have done some public initiatives to fight a new virus being added to the global goulash if you will such as canceling large entertainment events/sporting and even closing schools, and advocating distancing/hygiene as best you can but the shelter in place orders affecting non essential businesses was the wrong move in my opinion.
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  2. #1112
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    Originally Posted by ghostfacedup View Post
    What? Isn't that less than the flu was last year?
    No, but it’s not far off. But that is only by August 4th so it doesn’t include rest of the year, it doesn’t include maybe earlier in this year before the virus arrived in America and obviously we don’t quarantine the entire country during flu season so we’ve experienced fewer deaths because of the social distancing.

    It’s still not “just the flu bro” even if we get close to the death toll this model shows.
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  3. #1113
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    Originally Posted by JoshSP1985 View Post
    Theoretically based on estimates yes but we also don't attempt to battle the flu each year by destroying the economy.

    I still hold the position that this thing is about as dangerous as the flu.

    Think about how many people the flu kills and that's with vaccination and with herd immunity. A new virus entering the global sphere will have a bad year and then just kind of fold into the normal ebb and flow in following years.

    I think we should have done some public initiatives to fight a new virus being added to the global goulash if you will such as canceling large entertainment events/sporting and even closing schools, and advocating distancing/hygiene as best you can but the shelter in place orders affecting non essential businesses was the wrong move in my opinion.
    I disagree, mainly because I live in CA and we are seeing how well SIP has worked over here. We have crappy people all over the place, but somehow managed to avoid huge spikes. It's all about the hospital system.

    Trump has prepared us for future pandemics with this, and we will no longer rely on China. There is a chance this whole ordeal will help us in the long run.
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  4. #1114
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    Originally Posted by Blasting View Post
    No, but it’s not far off. But that is only by August 4th so it doesn’t include rest of the year, it doesn’t include maybe earlier in this year before the virus arrived in America and obviously we don’t quarantine the entire country during flu season so we’ve experienced fewer deaths because of the social distancing.

    It’s still not “just the flu bro” even if we get close to the death toll this model shows.
    2017-2018 flu season claimed 61k lives. It isn’t the flu, but it isn’t Ebola either. The case for crashing the economy and destroying people’s livelihoods is becoming less convincing each day. We did the right thing at the start, but the time to get back to normal is approaching. If we could get antibody testing done large-scale, we could kore forward with more confidence.
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  5. #1115
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    Originally Posted by ghostfacedup View Post
    What? Isn't that less than the flu was last year?
    You're not comparing the same things. When the CDC takes the final covid-19 and runs it through their model that use to estimate flu deaths, it'll jump up substantially. This is just reported deaths and doesn't include the excess mortality and deaths at home, attributable deaths, etc... that they use to calculate the final toll. The flu deaths they report includes all of those estimates already.
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  6. #1116
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    Originally Posted by ghostfacedup View Post
    I disagree, mainly because I live in CA and we are seeing how well SIP has worked over here. We have crappy people all over the place, but somehow managed to avoid huge spikes. It's all about the hospital system.

    Trump has prepared us for future pandemics with this, and we will no longer rely on China. There is a chance this whole ordeal will help us in the long run.
    Maybe, there are a lot of factors.

    Amount of Chinese travel to NY vs LA during the weeks leading up to the spikes
    Amount of high density public transit in LA vs NY
    Weather
    etc

    I'm not saying you're wrong but I'm not saying what you've said is a definitive fact either.
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  7. #1117
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    just the flu crew trying to promote their bullchit

    l m a o

    keep banning me, limpdick

    it won't change the fact that your orange master is wrong
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  8. #1118
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    Originally Posted by Blasting View Post
    It’s still not “just the flu bro” even if we get close to the death toll this model shows.
    This thing also shut everyone down for the most part. Schools closed, most people respecting social distancing, lots of people home from work, almost nobody in crowds, etc... so, whatever #s we have, it will have spread a lot less due to this.
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  9. #1119
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    Originally Posted by Blasting View Post
    Washington U model downgraded again to 60k deaths. Wincel can’t take it!
    That'd be good news but you have to assume that no more hotspots show up. Like in Florida.

    Social distancing does seem to be working.
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  10. #1120
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    Originally Posted by misccancer View Post
    just the flu crew trying to promote their bullchit

    l m a o

    keep banning me, limpdick

    it won't change the fact that your orange master is wrong
    “Washington University: ‘it’s just the flu bro’” -wincel
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  11. #1121
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  12. #1122
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    Originally Posted by Blasting View Post
    “Washington University: ‘it’s just the flu bro’” -wincel
    we'll see on may 1 boyo
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  13. #1123
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    Originally Posted by lmaaaaaaaaooo View Post
    we'll see on may 1 boyo
    It’s April 8th. Do you wish to revise your estimate?
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  14. #1124
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    Originally Posted by lmfaooooooooooo View Post
    Maaaaybe. Not sure. I'm still sticking with my over 300k guess. I have a feeling people aren't taking shelter in place srsly. But I'll trust their estimates for now. If I'm wrong, great. I just get the feeling this is like those population estimates where they keep hoping it flattens out, but it flattens out way later than they think...

    Right now, we are actually well on pace to be 100-200k even if their model estimates 60k. Plus, nobody ever mentions the uncertainty bounds.
    Holy sh*t. You’re joking, right??? People have been making this point the whole time.

    Some of that uncertainty is what I as well as other non doom and gloomers have mentioned. Your idea of uncertainty is some crazy outbreak or a COVID strain gets stronger, etc.

    On the other side there is the uncertainty of a possible breakthrough in a cure or the heat destroying the virus or the virus losing a lot of strength over time, etc.

    Point is that I’ve made this argument before to you. That there is so much uncertainty. But you’re a fukking clown that suggested only you and Bill Gates knew the truth. We don’t know nearly enough about what’s to come. Just quit pretending you do. This is why you’re a pseudo-intellectual.
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  15. #1125
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    Originally Posted by chaunce54 View Post
    I'm just saying that simply dying WITH it is not accurate.

    If somebody with lung cancer dies of flu, is that counted as a flu death or a cancer death?
    maybe we should trust the medical professionals in determining cause of death instead of trusting chaunce54? that sounds reasonable to me.

    Originally Posted by JoshSP1985 View Post
    I still hold the position that this thing is about as dangerous as the flu.
    oh joshy, you're so predictable, it's comically naive. you are quite skilled at holding ignorant positions that run contrary to facts

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  16. #1126
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    Originally Posted by lmfaooooooooooo View Post
    No I didn't. I always said it was a guess and gave reasons to support my guess (which was back when POTUS was talking about letting people be out by easter). The people arguing the growth was linear were being retarded, and I called them out on it. Bill Gates said a lot of stuff that made sense. Nobody knows how many deaths there will actually be.

    Wait until May 1 to declare victory.

    If I'm a pseudo intellectual, why do you care so much what I think? Just assume I'm a lunatic and go about your life. lmao
    wincel dude, why not take a break until may 1. whether you're going to be right or wrong, debating it now serves no useful purpose and continuing to make fake accounts is just a really juvenile look. you're destroying any credibility you hope to have with each new account you create.
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  17. #1127
    Anti-Circumcision JoshSP1985's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    oh joshy, you're so predictable, it's comically naive. you are quite skilled at holding ignorant positions that run contrary to facts
    Estimates put CV deaths at 500k w/o mitigation, flu deaths would be right there as well without mitigation. We still have tens of thousands of deaths in the US with vaccination and with herd immunity. Without those existing dampers flu deaths would be drastically higher than they are currently. It's not a stretch to think that the given the same environment that the flu and cv would kill a similar amount of people.

    Today CV is more dangerous absolutely, my point was in following seasons it may end up killing even less people seasonally than the flu.
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  18. #1128
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    Originally Posted by lmfaooooooooooo View Post
    And I really am that petty and juvenile.
    life's more enjoyable if you're not. it's not worth it, dude.

    you'll be far happier if you went for a walk and listened to an upbeat spotify playlist than creating new accounts to bypass a ban on a dying fitness forum.
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  19. #1129
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    Originally Posted by lmfaooooooooooo View Post
    That 500k was for the UK LOL. It was 1-2 M for US.

    And yes, without herd immunity, flu would be absolutely soul crushing. We already went through that. It was called the Spanish flu.
    That's all I was saying and I tried to add additional context to my post to keep people from thinking I was saying that covid this year was going to be as bad as the flu this year however that level of comprehension wasn't attainable by some.
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    Originally Posted by lmfaooooooooooo View Post
    I went for a 5 mi walk yesterday and phaggots were everywhere not following the 6 ft rule. MOTHERFUKERS
    Doesn't really apply within households.
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    Originally Posted by Blasting View Post
    That's on the low end of what I would expect, but I guess not too unreasonable. It's probably going to be 50,000 by 5/1, and I'd personally guess near 65,000 by June 1, but it's going to be slowing at that point, too, so I'd think 70-75,000 by Aug 4? There will likely be another mini-spike near the end of the year, so by the time the vaccine is ready next spring, I'd be surprised if we're not over 100k.

    The key to ending all of the restrictions is going to be testing. There needs to be widespread antibody testing to determine how many people have actually been exposed so far (because it's way more than 400k, but how much - 3x, 5x, 10x?). There also needs to be an ability to control breakouts through quarantining and contact tracing, but to do that, you have to start with a very low number of infections in the public, and you have to have extensive on-demand testing to catch all cases very early (I mean, like go to any CVS and get tested for free and get an immediate result level of on-demand testing) and then also test everyone who that person came in contact with very quickly. Quarantine and contact tracing is what worked in SK, and it's what was tried here at first, but when they started actually testing for it, it quickly became apparent that there were millions of cases in the country already and not nearly the testing capability we needed to contain it. Hopefully, all this social distancing will reduce the number of community spread infections to a manageable number, but we still need to significantly ramp up the testing capabilities (I've seen stuff in the works, but the quarantine can't really be lifted until it's in mass production and rolled out).
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    Originally Posted by lmfaooooooooooo View Post
    A lot of ppl revised their estimates simply because for a few days recently, the number of new cases dropped. However, yesterday, it shot right back up. Could just be noise. We have no idea how the actual trend is rn.
    If you trust the confirmed case count as a proxy for the actual spread of the virus, the confirmed cases were only up about 9% daily yesterday. The daily increase was 35% before social distancing and has been decreasing since then. It's been 8.5-9% for the last 3 days.
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    How would the biochemistry work out and the stuff I can’t discuss here that Lance Armstrong might consider
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    Originally Posted by Thankless View Post
    An interesting now removed/deleted article on medium. sifts through most of the anecdotal evidence and bull**** provided by the msm. give it a read

    https://archive.is/ONUmi


    This is actually a really good write up.


    Still inconclusive on the stuff. but great thoughts
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    Wincel question:


    What current % of the US population do you think already have the virus?
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    Originally Posted by adamsteve14 View Post
    2017-2018 flu season claimed 61k lives. It isn’t the flu, but it isn’t Ebola either. The case for crashing the economy and destroying people’s livelihoods is becoming less convincing each day. We did the right thing at the start, but the time to get back to normal is approaching. If we could get antibody testing done large-scale, we could kore forward with more confidence.
    You sure it was 61K lives? I mean, you think the same people are not using the same metrics for h1n1 as they are for covid? Just lmao.
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    Originally Posted by JoshSP1985 View Post
    Estimates put CV deaths at 500k w/o mitigation, flu deaths would be right there as well without mitigation. We still have tens of thousands of deaths in the US with vaccination and with herd immunity. Without those existing dampers flu deaths would be drastically higher than they are currently. It's not a stretch to think that the given the same environment that the flu and cv would kill a similar amount of people.

    Today CV is more dangerous absolutely, my point was in following seasons it may end up killing even less people seasonally than the flu.
    lol. Even with the country in lockdown Covid will kill 100k.
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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    lol. Even with the country in lockdown Covid will kill 100k.

    Same question above for you
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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    lol. Even with the country in lockdown Covid will kill 100k.
    Calling the country in lock down is kind of disingenuous. By name maybe but in reality no. A vast majority of the country is working and the rest are still going shopping at the stores that are open.

    Also COVID deaths will be overstated as they're counting any deaths with a positive COVID test as a COVID death.
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    Originally Posted by JoshSP1985 View Post
    Calling the country in lock down is kind of disingenuous. By name maybe but in reality no. A vast majority of the country is working and the rest are still going shopping at the stores that are open.

    Also COVID deaths will be overstated as they're counting any deaths with a positive COVID test as a COVID death.
    Vast majority are working? Are you insane?
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