How many USA Coronavirus deaths by 5/1?

[wincel]

Came in bc we’re @ 2K, looks like that’s already been reported here. I voted 2-20k but felt like it was closer to 2 than 20, which is now unlikely.

Hopefully it’s still below 20,000 - really depends on the rate. Does it continue to grow every day, flatline or (eventually) drop off.

Right now, while any death is tragic, 2,000 people in a country of 320,000,000 is minor, it goes right back to Wincel’s fears, and whether this thing is just getting started or not

I was really hoping Italy had flattened out. That would have given us some hope. But Italy keeps growing, which makes me realize exponential phase will last a lot longer than ppl think. The rate won't start slowing down for at least a few weeks, and that is devastating with exponential growth. There is also the danger of people canceling this early and gallivanting around town, shooting up the growth factor dramatically. I feel like people are already getting restless. Most of April has to be on lockdown for this chit to work. Otherwise, u are srsly looking at 1M + deaths. Not even joking. If we do this chit right, a conservative estimate is like 60-100k. If we fuk this up, srsly 1M+ dead by May.

OFC if we find a therapy, that could change everything. And making tons of ventilators helps a LOT. It just isn't reasonable to expect the supply to keep up with the demand. Trump like needs to order every fuking major factory in the country that isn't making anything important to switch and make chit to support healthcare. This is like WW2 in terms of how we need to revamp the economy to support the effort.

[veggie530]

So your argument is our healthcare system is the best because he may have died of something other than COVID-19 while being denied care due to not having insurance?

Talk about missing the point lol.

None of this makes any sense. If he was so critically ill that he needed a hospital, not an urgent care, and didn't have insurance...they would call 911. Especially a minor.

His presentation at the urgent care must have been drastically different from his condition prior to cardiac arrest that happened en route to the hospital, or, someone at UC was extremely incompetent.

Insurance wouldn't have helped any of that. Something is missing from this scenario. This wreaks of a lawyered up version of the story coming out, with patient privacy protecting any rebuttal, and a lawsuit to follow.

For those of you not in the know, UC's are private and most operate by getting paid either by insurance or up front. Either way, they are meant for low complexity illnesses. If the patient presents with a complaint that is too complex for their services they either call 911 for the patient or the physician agrees with the patient driving themselves to the ER. I can only think of once in my 5+ years as a nurse where I got a report from an UC RN and was wondering why they didn't call an ambulance. They tend to lean toward risk aversion and ambulance people that don't need it.

[|ceman]

Fauci just predicted 100 to 200 thousand today. That seems right and will depend on how committed Americans are to social distancing. If there are stubborn swaths of the country, this could go much higher

[isingmodel]

[wincel]

[JUSA]

Fauci just predicted 100 to 200 thousand today. That seems right and will depend on how committed Americans are to social distancing. If there are stubborn swaths of the country, this could go much higher

100-200K with Social Distancing, until when I wonder? I fear months on end

[|ceman]

100-200K with Social Distancing, until when I wonder? I fear months on end

until there's a vaccine. Or if it abates in summer. But that's unlikely given the exponential spread in tropical counties and states like Florida.

2020 is gonna suck like nothing you can imagine

[wincel]

100-200K with Social Distancing, until when I wonder? I fear months on end

Most of the worst will be done by mid May. This type of growth can't be sustained for too long. But a couple of things to watch out for:

-mutations
-persistent retards spreading the infection to previously isolated people

This will cause more havoc and suffering..

[wincel]

I just read that the current 8 mutations are so small that they are benign mutations and are not more powerful than the virus. But they do seem to be mutating every 15 days.

The thing is that as this explodes, the probability of a bad mutation will escalate.

[Weightaholic]

Pointing out your willful ignorance =/= reveling in death.

^^^

A lot of us told a lot of you you were being complete and utter idiots. Maybe you should think about shutting your yapping traps until you actually have a thought go through your head.

[dannyg1217]

CDC estimates there to be up to 60k deaths from flu this season. Just to put this panic in perspective.

[wincel]

CDC estimates there to be up to 60k deaths from flu this season. Just to put this panic in perspective.

Coronavirus is considerably more lethal than flu, manlet.

[Reliance012]

The thing is that as this explodes, the probability of a bad mutation will escalate.

Not really. If by “bad” you mean drug resistant or vaccine evasion, sure, but we haven’t put those selective pressures on yet. At this point in time there’s nothing that will favor an inherently more virulent strain if that mutation arises. In fact, it’s just the opposite. More benign strains will likely be favored.

[wincel]

Not really. If by “bad” you mean drug resistant or vaccine evasion, sure, but we haven’t put those selective pressures on yet. At this point in time there’s nothing that will favor an inherently more virulent strain if that mutation arises. In fact, it’s just the opposite. More benign strains will likely be favored.

I mean relative to the probability up to now. The probability of a bad one will escalate due to the larger number of infected as we progress. You are correct that the probability of a benign mutation or one that perhaps aids in spread is more likely to persist.

[dannyg1217]

Coronavirus is considerably more lethal than flu, manlet.

yes 0.1% vs somewhere less than 1% mortality rate. Now let's destroy our economy!

[|ceman]

Most of the worst will be done by mid May. This type of growth can't be sustained for too long. But a couple of things to watch out for:

-mutations
-persistent retards spreading the infection to previously isolated people

This will cause more havoc and suffering..

Doubtful we will be past the worst by May. We will be past the worst when either a vaccine or herd immunity is reached, neither will happen by May. If we slow the spread with quarantine, but haven't reached vaccine or herd immunity, the minute social distancing is relaxed, it will surge again.

yes 0.1% vs somewhere less than 1% mortality rate. Now let's destroy our economy!

that's with medical capacity not maxed out.

When medical capacity is surpassed, the case fatality rate is between 5-10%

[Dorich]

When medical capacity is surpassed, the case fatality rate is between 5-10%

We have no intelligence on that.

[FatBallz]

I stand by an estimate of 20,000 max, but likely lower by May 1.

At the moment, I don't have a whole lot of faith in the predictions because I think they are lacking crucial information. I would have more confidence in the predictions if there was more general testing. Most, if not all, of the testing is being done to people who are sick. They should take a sample of 500 random people from NY to get a better idea of how many people have it with little or no symptoms. It will provide a more accurate morality rate. An antibody blood test would help even more to figure out how many recovered on their own.

We'll see what happens.

For context of the current numbers:

About 2500 Americans have died of Covid since January.
About 15000 Americans have died of the flu since January.

I will gladly admit I was wrong in a month if that is the case and I hope you gloating doomsday mathcels will do the same.

[|ceman]

We have no intelligence on that.

Italy is 11% now
Spain is at 8.5%

Both are rising daily

[JesseV87]

Also, let's never qualify Richard Epstein again.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...administration

[ghostfacedup]

Italy is 11% now
Spain is at 8.5%

Both are rising daily

Lmao

[isingmodel]

Italy is 11% now
Spain is at 8.5%

Both are rising daily

I will say here, the numbers aren't really that high. There's going to be a lot of mild cases that aren't being recorded. If we really had a virus with a 10% kill rate and a similar R0 to COVID19, we'd be well and truly ****ed, apocalypse scenario.

[Mr Beer]

I will say here, the numbers aren't really that high. There's going to be a lot of mild cases that aren't being recorded. If we really had a virus with a 10% kill rate and a similar R0 to COVID19, we'd be well and truly ****ed, apocalypse scenario.

Yeah agree but in terms of predicting deaths in the US in the case of an overwhelmed system, these rates are somewhat useful because in both cases we're dealing with "of those we know have COVID".

Proper statistical analysis is going to have wait until the dust settles anyway and some things we will never know.

[|ceman]

I will say here, the numbers aren't really that high. There's going to be a lot of mild cases that aren't being recorded. If we really had a virus with a 10% kill rate and a similar R0 to COVID19, we'd be well and truly ****ed, apocalypse scenario.

look at it this way. If you get covid seriously enough to need hospitalization, in Italy you have higher than a 1 in 9 chance of dying


US numbers may not get that high, but they sure won't be 1% either. Hospital capacity is not infinite and the outbreak won't be every balanced in all areas. Some local hospitals might hit 10% or more once this thing really hits the fan.

[FoxMcCocks]

Maybe 3,000. 99.9% of them will be the elderly who were in the verge of death before they were infected.

It truly is unbelievable how stupid people can be lmao

[isingmodel]

It truly is unbelievable how stupid people can be lmao

Dave22 is well known around these parts for that

[wincel]

So can we officially declare just the flu crew as dead?

[FoxMcCocks]

So can we officially declare just the flu crew as dead?

Is the Venn diagram of “it’s just the flu” crew and Trump supporters a perfect circle?

Imagine being so obsessed with a man that you downplay the severity of a global pandemic because he told you so

[isingmodel]

Is the Venn diagram of “it’s just the flu” crew and Trump supporters a perfect circle?

Imagine being so obsessed with a man that you downplay the severity of a global pandemic because he told you so

In some of their defence I've seen a fair few Trumpers and right leaning posters in general on here taking COVID seriously from the beginning. Although the retards calling it just a flu are always Trumpers.

[JUSA]

CDC estimates there to be up to 60k deaths from flu this season. Just to put this panic in perspective.

Who the fuk knows with any current model of the Coronavirus but going by the 100-200K with all the direct government aid, social distancing, Trump enacting wartime powers, etc — this shows how it puts the flu to shame.

People are kind of mindful of the flu, 60k deaths, here with all this it’s still predicted to do more. If society went about covid like they did with the flu it could be those 1/2million to 2mil doomsday predictions.