How many USA Coronavirus deaths by 5/1?

[sooby]

Because this is apparently too difficult for you to follow

What you said,



Is a flat out lie.

so they didn't change any single other variable aside from social distancing measures vs no social distancing measures, after acknowledging that far more people likely have the virus? We didn't learn a single thing about the virus between initial estimates and what was posted now?

Is this what they are trying to tell us and they didn't incorporate new data into that different figure? (srs question)

Not sure I buy that.

[wincel]

so they didn't change any single other variable aside from social distancing measures vs no social distancing measures, after acknowledging that far more people likely have the virus? We didn't learn a single thing about the virus between initial estimates and what was posted now?

Is this what they are trying to tell us and they didn't incorporate new data into that different figure? (srs question)

Not sure I buy that.

I think the new estimat eis jut a revision based on social distancing

[GaloisTheory]

so they didn't change any single other variable aside from social distancing measures vs no social distancing measures, after acknowledging that far more people likely have the virus? We didn't learn a single thing about the virus between initial estimates and what was posted now?

Is this what they are trying to tell us and they didn't incorporate new data into that different figure? (srs question)

Not sure I buy that.

I can't even parse what you're trying to say. The 20,000 number comes same exact report as the 500k. He did not give a new estimate for the death toll. On March 16, he predicted 500k deaths with no measures being taken and 20k deaths with a suppression strategy (i.e., shutting down). That's where the 20k comes from.

[ImpressiveGainz]

Because this is apparently too difficult for you to follow

What you said,



Is a flat out lie.

So you're just going to totally ignore the dude's own statement about BEING WRONG. Got it.

[wincel]

I can't even parse what you're trying to say. The 20,000 number comes same exact report as the 500k. He did not give a new estimate for the death toll.

The Washington Examiner ran the article. They are trying to change the story and make it seem like all predictions are bs and people can go back to work. It's become the republican hard line now. They are trying to deny the reality of the situation.

Guys. It's exponential growth and you are going to have to be locked down. You need to deal with it.

[GaloisTheory]

So you're just going to totally ignore the dude's own statement about BEING WRONG. Got it.

Quote the statement and explain what was wrong and how it shows your statement was remotely accurate. You've made three posts now and have said nothing. At this point I feel like you're deliberately being as vague and general as possible because you have no idea what you're talking about.

[ImpressiveGainz]

Quote the statement and explain what was wrong and how it shows your statement was remotely accurate. You've made three posts now and have said nothing. At this point I feel like you're deliberately being as vague and general as possible because you have no idea what you're talking about.

After just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.

Seriously..?

[Dave22reborn]

The Washington Examiner ran the article. They are trying to change the story and make it seem like all predictions are bs and people can go back to work. It's become the republican hard line now. They are trying to deny the reality of the situation.

Guys. It's exponential growth and you are going to have to be locked down. You need to deal with it.

I'm still going to work, deal with it, still working out, deal with it, still going to the grocery stores, deal with it. Still visiting family, deal with it.

[wincel]

I'm still going to work, deal with it, still working out, deal with it, still going to the grocery stores, deal with it. Still visiting family, deal with it.

lol ur the captain of ur own ship bro

just don't cry when it sinks

[kingmanaverage]

Exponentials don't work that way. It ramps up. Watch.

That would mean 100k+ people dying in a single day. That sounds even more absurd.

[wincel]

That would mean 100k+ people dying in a single day. That sounds even more absurd.

Well UW had a different estimate so I'll go with theirs for now. I think they estimate around 80k dead by May 1.

I think it is entirely possible to have 100k die in a day though. That's how exponential growth is. 100k isn't that much when you look at the entirety of the US.

[wincel]

Wincel sucks at math.

Wincel can't even calculate 17x6 without a calculator.

Wincel just listens to whatever MSM tells him and kept spewing 1-2m deaths.

Wincel is now ok with newest 80k estimate.

Wincel didn't even try to do any maths.

They have better info than me. I just guessed based on the trend. They estimated the carrying capacity. They are saying around 80k.

[wincel]

Wincel is a sheep.

Wincel is a math fraud.

Wincel cant even maths.

Come back to this thread in may *******.
You'll be shocked at the death rate in the coming weeks if this trend continues.

[JUSA]

for 2 million people to die in the next 4.5 weeks we need to average 63k deaths per day starting today

are you brain damaged?

iTs eXPoNeNTiaL, 100 today, 200 tomorrow, then 400, over and over and BOOM, 100,000,000 dead.

Keep in mind, he said elsewhere if it’s only 100,000 dead in the USA he will be very impressed. I’ll be sure to revisit that in May and again Septemberish when we’re fully through this. Trump might end up being extremely impressive to Wincel.

[wincel]

iTs eXPoNeNTiaL, 100 today, 200 tomorrow, then 400, over and over and BOOM, 100,000,000 dead.

Keep in mind, he said elsewhere if it’s only 100,000 dead in the USA he will be very impressed. I’ll be sure to revisit that in May and again Septemberish when we’re fully through this. Trump might end up being extremely impressive to Wincel.

He has impressed me before both by his idiocy and by his achievements. For example, I applauded his desire to seek peace with the taliban.

[wincel]

Wincel agrees with 1-2m from imperial study.

Wincel now agrees with 80k from UW.

Wincel can't even maths for himself.

I still think it will be closer to 1M by May. Maybe even more, but I'm saying 80k is a reasonable estimate. It really all depends on how good the lockdowns are and stuff.

[wincel]

> Believes it is 1m by May.
> But 80k by August is reasonable too.

ok dude

[wincel]

We'll find out in May. It's gonna be a lot more than the 20k you guys think it is.

[wincel]

80k by August 4, not May 1.

Wincel has poor reading comprehension, too.

I just looked at the graph. I didn't read the paper.

I just want to know why 1 M sounds so insane to you guys. I'm seeing ppl saying 60k a day isn't possible in 30 something days. Why not?

[FatBallz]

Maybe you just don't know how to maths.

[wincel]

Do I need to explain the logistic equation to you and how social distancing factors into this for you to understand why the estimates vary so much and why it is so critical people remain in lock down? Do you even care to know?

The rhetoric that this is just a flu may create the situation where u make the death toll far worse.

Like I said. Come back in May. We'll see if Trump decides to reopen economy before that. And you'll all likely be eating my ass come May.

[GaloisTheory]

Seriously..?

Yes seriously.

Did you totally miss the whole, "We thought it'd be 500k deaths, but really it's like 20k," thing?

This is a lie. It never happened. The original estimate was 20k. The so called "revised/downgraded" estimate is 20k. So yes, seriously. I'd like to see you explain how a 0% decrease from 20k to 20k is a downgrade.

[wincel]

Wincel, at this point it isn't even about the math that you can't even do for yourself. It's about how idiotic you have to be to say "I believe 1m by May 1 based off this one report, but 80k by August based off this other report also seems reasonable to me."

u wot m8?

It's very sensitive to the effect of social distancing, goofus.

[z4v4]

LOL you don't understand how math works, loser!

He doesn't; neither do you, son.

[Mr Beer]

I voted 2K -> 20K but IMO nearer 20K than 2K. I think that people will start taking this chit seriously and lock down like Italy but too late. Against that the death toll per capita should be way lower due to age demographics and because the Italians are useless at organising anything.

Looking at other countries, when they take lockdown seriously, new cases flatten quite quickly. Also, while there will be a lot of cases in the US by 1 May, it takes a week or two to kill the people who are getting to die. Additionally I doubt the healthcare system will be crushed by then, meaning the death rate will stay low.

So yeah I'm being cautiously optimistic for the US at the stated date. Our new cases are flattening here in Australia after locking down for a few days and we're pretty terrible at doing what we're told.

Lastly I think 1 May is going to be hilariously too early to start sucking each others' dicks about having made it through. This is going to be a long hard slog.

[wincel]

just fukking lol @ 20kcels u will see in may *******s

[Jrd86]

Well what we're doing right now is conflating them with other ailments. And instead of attributing these deaths to a cocktail of other ailments, the death count will continue to rise for covid19

[wincel]

Well what we're doing right now is conflating them with other ailments. And instead of attributing these deaths to a cocktail of other ailments, the death count will continue to rise for covid19

[Jrd86]

You seem triggered

[LukeLissen]

~3,000 total deaths April 1st

~7,500 total deaths April 7th

- peak deaths/day April 8th

~10-15,000 total deaths April 31st

business and life outside of healthcare getting back to normal mostly by May 1st

virus mostly gone in the US by mid-June and gone in July

UPDATE: I'm revising that upwards significantly-



4,900 total deaths April 1st

14,000 total deaths April 7th

peak deaths/day April 14th @ 2,300 deaths/day

61,000 deaths May 1st

business and life outside of healthcare getting back to normal - UNKNOWN

virus mostly gone in the US by mid-June and gone in July